Long - Time to go.

[Ian Royal]

I think you can reasonably break Long's career with us into three parts:
- The first two seasons where he was a raw youngster and stepping up to new levels of quality in terms of the division he was playing in.
- Then the period up until McDermott took over where he very rarely started 3 or more consecutive games and was generally used as a subsitute and back up player.
- And finally the period since McDermott has taken over where he has started regularly.

His League record is this*:
period - fixtures - starts - (subs) - o/p gls - pens - (gls as sub) - total gls - gls/start - gls/sub
10 / now - 42 - 35 - (2) - 6 - 4 - (0) - 10 - 1/3.5^ - n/a
7-8 / 10 - 105 - 21 - (55) - 11 - 1 - (5) - 12 - 1/3 - 1/11
5-6 / 6-7 - 84 - 10 - (22) - 5 - 0 - (3) - 5 - 1/5 - 1/7.3

To me that says Long was a player of some promise when we got him who had a habit of nicking the odd goal here or there. But it also says to me that he is a player who's level is impact sub and back up to the main strikers.

Where he's playing a bit part with the odd start here and there he seems to score at a good rate for a back up striker. But he just doesn't really seem to have kicked on from there though and even with the distorted figures from his purple patch his scoring rate has actually gone backwards since he began starting regularly. That says to me he simply isn't going to do it consistently as a first choice striker.

Obviously that's what I've thought all along, before looking at his record anyway, but I certainly don't think those figures show that to be wrong, even if they might not be particularly strong evidence in favour of it.

Now clearly if he starts putting them away in the next 20 games my opinion might change. It's undeniable he has signifcantly improved his all round game in his time here and contributes to our overall play fairly well. But he just doesn't score enough, or regularly enough.

We seem to be stuck with three second strikers and no primary goalscorer. And when you frequently play one upfront, only have one winger who's shown any indication of scoring many and no goalscoring midfielders that's a bit of a problem.

Church has only just started at this level and might step up, but I think he's destined to be a very good partner to a goalscorer. Hunt could be our saviour in this department, but it just feels like clutching at straws. Seeing as 3 strikers isn't enough in any case we desperately need a good goalscorer to come in.

Sorry, turned into a bit of an essay. That's pretty much the last I have to say on the subject thankfully. Hopefully this thread can die off and we can get some decent debate going.


*I can't guarantee I haven't made the odd mistake, but I think it's pretty accurate.
^As we know 40% of these goals came in the space of three games last season, which distorts the figures some what.

[Terminal Boardom]

I think you can reasonably break Long's career with us into three parts:
- The first two seasons where he was a raw youngster and stepping up to new levels of quality in terms of the division he was playing in.
- Then the period up until McDermott took over where he very rarely started 3 or more consecutive games and was generally used as a subsitute and back up player.
- And finally the period since McDermott has taken over where he has started regularly.

His League record is this*:
period - fixtures - starts - (subs) - o/p gls - pens - (gls as sub) - total gls - gls/start - gls/sub
10 / now - 42 - 35 - (2) - 6 - 4 - (0) - 10 - 3.5^ - n/a
7-8 / 10 - 105 - 21 - (55) - 11 - 1 - (5) - 12 - 3 - 11
5-6 / 6-7 - 84 - 10 - (22) - 5 - 0 - (3) - 5 - 5 - 7.3

To me that says Long was a player of some promise when we got him who had a habit of nicking the odd goal here or there. But it also says to me that he is a player who's level is impact sub and back up to the main strikers.

Where he's playing a bit part with the odd start here and there he seems to score at a good rate for a back up striker. But he just doesn't really seem to have kicked on from there though and even with the distorted figures from his purple patch his scoring rate has actually gone backwards since he began starting regularly. That says to me he simply isn't going to do it consistently as a first choice striker.

Obviously that's what I've thought all along, before looking at his record anyway, but I certainly don't think those figures show that to be wrong, even if they might not be particularly strong evidence in favour of it.

Now clearly if he starts putting them away in the next 20 games my opinion might change. It's undeniable he has signifcantly improved his all round game in his time here and contributes to our overall play fairly well. But he just doesn't score enough, or regularly enough.

We seem to be stuck with three second strikers and no primary goalscorer. And when you frequently play one upfront, only have one winger who's shown any indication of scoring many and no goalscoring midfielders that's a bit of a problem.

Church has only just started at this level and might step up, but I think he's destined to be a very good partner to a goalscorer. Hunt could be our saviour in this department, but it just feels like clutching at straws. Seeing as 3 strikers isn't enough in any case we desperately need a good goalscorer to come in.

Sorry, turned into a bit of an essay. That's pretty much the last I have to say on the subject thankfully. Hopefully this thread can die off and we can get some decent debate going.


*I can't guarantee I haven't made the odd mistake, but I think it's pretty accurate.
^As we know 40% of these goals came in the space of three games last season, which distorts the figures some what.

This has been my opinion for quite some time. I wonder how well either of Long, Hunt or Church would do with a player with the quality of, say, Jimmy Quinn? 93/94 had JQ scoring 40 odd and Archie scoring 20 odd. Sure, not all of Archie's came from knock downs but by having 2 up front gave more scope for goalscoring opportunity. Also in 93/4, we had the likes of Gilkes, Taylor and Osborn regularly providing assists. That could be translated into the current day to MacAnuff, Kebe and Howard. What we need is a quality target man. Maybe, just maybe, we will all see just how good, or otherwise, the likes of Long, Church and Hunt really are.

[Bandini]

No Osborn in 93/4.

[Terminal Boardom]

No Osborn in 93/4.

My mistake Kevin Dillon? Mick Gooding? Tom Jones?

[Snowball]

I have been looking at Long's exact minutes on the pitch, goals etc

I've done his last 80 appearances, often as a sub.

In 80 appearances, 5,086 minutes (56.5 games) he has scored 23 goals at a rate of a goal every 221 minutes = or 2.45 games

Last 10 05 Goals in 0,775 Minutes = a Goal every 155 Minutes
Last 20 06 Goals in 1,567 Minutes = a Goal every 261 Minutes
Last 30 07 Goals in 2,109 Minutes = a Goal every 301 Minutes
Last 40 14 Goals in 2,950 Minutes = a Goal every 210 Minutes
Last 50 15 Goals in 3,422 Minutes = a Goal every 228 Minutes
Last 60 15 Goals in 4,000 Minutes = a Goal every 267 Minutes
Last 70 20 Goals in 4,665 Minutes = a Goal every 233 Minutes (52.8 Games)
Last 80 23 Goals in 5,086 Minutes = a Goal every 221 Minutes (56.5 Games)

These were the individual 8 x ten appearances. If you look at the three bolded lines it's clear that Long needs to play 90 minutes, time on the pitch. He has only ever had four decent runs of consecutive games playing 70-90 minutes. In three of those he has blown to the top of the scoring charts. The other was the first ten games this season when he only managed one goal, but in his second ten he's looked very good. Seems to me the boy needs a number of games to get into his stride, and looking at his whole career it's always been that way

7 Goals in 9.34 Games (10 Appearances)
5 Goals in 7.39 Games (10 Appearances)
5 Goals in 8.66 Games (10 Appearances)
3 Goals in 4.68 Games (10 Appearances)

03 Goals in 010 Appearances in 421 Minutes = 4.68 Games
05 Goals in 010 Appearances in 665 Minutes = 7.39 Games
00 Goals in 010 Appearances in 578 Minutes = 6.42 Games
01 Goals in 010 Appearances in 472 Minutes = 5.24 Games
07 Goals in 010 Appearances in 841 Minutes = 9.34 Games
01 Goals in 010 Appearances in 552 Minutes = 6.13 Games
01 Goals in 010 Appearances in 792 Minutes = 8.88 Games This season
05 Goals in 010 Appearances in 775 Minutes = 8.66 Games Latest

Shane has had almost another 100 appearances but the total just 2000 minutes, scattered here and there at an average of 20 minutes per appearance.

He had 15 goals in that time, a goal every 133.33 minutes.

I haven't yet done his whole career, but he is probably under a goal ever 200 minutes, not far off 1 in 180

[Snowball]

I chose an arbitrary ten-game split for ease of maths, and no other reason, but I have to disagree strongly with those who think he's poor when he gets a run of starts.

He has had just one poor run like that and three incredible ones.

I've included cup and internationals because I started with soccerbase and flipped back and forth.

I'm aware that Shane was a supersub for a long time and his first 100 or so appearances give him a wunder-kid scoring rate of around a goal every 133 minutes. But we all know that's a distortion. See Church this season. No goals from 7 starts is it? But 3 goals in 3 TINY sub appearances which totally change his figures.

These figures

7 Goals in 9.34 Games (10 Appearances) Playing 93.4% of all available minutes, 84.5 minutes average, scores 7 goals in 10 Appearances
5 Goals in 7.39 Games (10 Appearances) Playing 73.9% of all available minutes, 66.0 minutes average, scores 5 goals in 10 Appearances
5 Goals in 8.66 Games (10 Appearances) Playing 86.6% of all available minutes, 78.0 minutes average, scores 5 goals in 10 Appearances

[Snowball]

No need to read this, just showing the actual games to show fairness

80 10 13-12-2008 Championship Reading 2-0 Norwich 1 Won Pen (Hunt) scored open play
79 63 20-12-2008 Championship BRUM 1-3 Reading 0
78 27 26-12-2008 Championship Reading 1-1 Cardiff 0
77 90 28-12-2008 Championship South’n 1-1 Reading 1
76 90 03-01-2009 FA Cup Cardiff 2-0 Reading 0
75 14 09-01-2009 Championship Reading 4-0 Watford 0
74 10 27-01-2009 Championship Reading 1-0 Wolves 0
73 14 07-02-2009 Championship Reading 0-0 Preston 0
72 13 03-03-2009 Championship Sheff W 1-2 Reading 1 Open Play. Goal Line Clearance
71 90 07-03-2009 Championship Plymth 2-2 Reading 0

Note these (above) are not consecutive games, but cover almost four months. Hard to get a rhythm going!

70 90 10-03-2009 Championship Reading 2-2 Charlton 2 1 Pen, 1 Open Play
69 68 14-03-2009 Championship Reading 0-1 Ipswich 0
68 01 17-03-2009 Championship Don’r 0-1 Reading 0
67 26 21-03-2009 Championship C Palace 0-0 Reading 0
66 90 04-04-2009 Championship Cov’ry 0-0 Reading 0
65 79 13-04-2009 Championship Bl’pol 2-2 Reading 0
64 41 18-04-2009 Championship Reading 0-0 Barnsley 0
63 90 21-04-2009 Championship Derby 0-2 Reading 1 Open Play
62 90 27-04-2009 Championship Norwich 0-2 Reading 2 Both Open Play
61 90 03-05-2009 Championship Reading 1-2 BRUM 0

Note as well as more time PER GAME they are closer together. 7 Weeks instead of 4 months

60 90 09-05-2009 Play-Off Burnley 1-0 Reading 0
59 90 12-05-2009 Play-Off Reading 0-2 Burnley 0

58 26 08-08-2009 Championship Reading 0-0 Forest 0
57 90 15-08-2009 Championship Newc’le 3-0 Reading 0
56 90 22-08-2009 Championship Reading 1-3 Sheff U 0
55 06 29-08-2009 Championship Barnsley 1-3 Reading 0
54 37 17-10-2009 Championship WBA 3-1 Reading 0
53 90 20-10-2009 Championship QPR 4-1 Reading 0
52 25 26-10-2009 Championship Reading 0-1 Lei’ter 0
51 34 31-10-2009 Championship Cov’ry 1-3 Reading 0

Summer break, a six week break in there too. Note TEAM playing badly. Played 10 Lost SEVEN D1 W2
We had managed just TWO goals in 8 home games. Shane played 398 minutes = 29% of our disastrous opening under Rodgers

50 29 07-11-2009 Championship Reading 1-1 Ipswich 0
49 45 28-11-2009 Championship Derby 2-1 Reading 0
48 73 19-12-2009 Championship Bristol 1-1 Reading 0
47 55 26-12-2009 Championship Reading 1-1 Swansea 0
46 90 28-12-2009 Championship Plym’th 4-1 Reading 0 Note above (Rodgers) W0 D3 L2 Team a disaster, just 5 goals.
45 13 02-01-2010 English FA Cup Reading 1-1 Liver’l 0
44 39 13-01-2010 English FA Cup Livp’l 1-2 Reading 1 Won crucial pen, scored winning header
43 12 16-01-2010 Championship Forest 2-1 Reading 0
42 26 23-01-2010 English FA Cup Reading 1-0 Burnley 0
41 90 26-01-2010 Championship Sheff U 3-0 Reading 0

The two above represent Shane's worst-ever patch, the terrible time under Rodgers when we couldn't buy a win
Shane wasn't the only one not doing well!!!!!!!!!

40 90 30-01-2010 Championship Reading 1-0 Barnsley 1
39 90 06-02-2010 Championship Don’c’r 1-2 Reading 1
38 90 09-02-2010 Championship Reading 2-1 Plym’th 2
37 90 13-02-2010 English FA Cup Reading 2-2 WBA 0
36 90 07-03-2010 English FA Cup Reading 2-4 Villa 2
35 90 10-03-2010 Championship Reading 4-1 Derby 1 8 goals 720 Minutes
34 88 13-03-2010 Championship Reading 2-0 Bristol 0
33 68 16-03-2010 Championship Reading 1-0 QPR 0
32 90 20-03-2010 Championship Boro 1-1 Reading 0
31 75 24-03-2010 Championship L’ter 1-2 Reading 0

McDermott took over, Shane did well at Liverpool, got his 90 at Sheff Utd (where the result did not match how we played. I think Shane won a pen missed by Gylfi there. McDermott persisted with Shane and he started scoring goals. The only other time he had had a run of 90s, he scored well too.

30 65 27-03-2010 Championship Reading 1-1 WBA 0
29 73 03-04-2010 Championship Ipswich 2-1 Reading 0
28 64 10-04-2010 Championship Cardiff 0-0 Reading 0
27 79 13-04-2010 Championship Reading 1-2 Newc’ 0
26 90 17-04-2010 Championship Reading 6-0 Peterbro 1
25 29 20-04-2010 Championship Sc’orpe 2-2 Reading 0
24 61 24-04-2010 Championship Watford 3-0 Reading 0
23 84 02-05-2010 Championship Reading 4-1 Preston 0
22 03 25-05-2010 International Ireland 2-1 Par’uay 0
21 04 28-05-2010 International Ireland 3-0 Algeria 0

Not the scarcity of 90-minute games

20 70 07-08-2010 Championship Reading 1-2 Scunny 0
19 72 21-08-2010 Championship Reading 1-1 Forest 0
18 27 24-08-2010 League Cup Reading 3-3 N’pton 0
17 90 28-08-2010 Championship Leic’ter 1-2 Reading 0
16 89 11-09-2010 Championship Reading 3-0 C Palace 1 Pen
15 90 14-09-2010 Championship Millwall 0-0 Reading 0
14 89 18-09-2010 Championship Boro 3-1 Reading 0
13 85 25-09-2010 Championship Reading 3-0 Barnsley 0
12 80 28-09-2010 Championship Reading 1-0 Ipswich 0
11 90 02-10-2010 Championship Preston 1-1 Reading 0

This season, the bad run, really the ONLY run of consecutive 90s that hasn't led to goals

10 29 08-10-2010 European Ireland 2-3 Russia 1 Open Play, Assist
09 90 12-10-2010 European Slovakia 1-1 Ireland 0
08 76 16-10-2010 Championship Reading 0-1 Swansea 0
07 75 19-10-2010 Championship Bristol 1-0 Reading 0
06 90 23-10-2010 Championship Burnley 0-4 Reading 1 Pen, Assist
05 55 30-10-2010 Championship Reading 4-3 Donc’tr 0
04 90 06-11-2010 Championship QPR 3-1 Reading 1 25 Yards OP
03 90 10-11-2010 Championship Reading 1-1 Cardiff 0
02 90 13-11-2010 Championship Reading 3-3 Norwich 1 Pen
01 90 17-11-2010 International Ireland 1-2 Norway 1 Pen

5 goals

[Bandini]

No need to read this

OK

[Snowball]

But you did.

[PEARCEY]

This thread is shy of a few stats imho.

[Snowball]

This thread is shy of a few stats imho.

I was thinking that.

Just wait until Shane gets a couple of goals on Saturday,

[Victor Meldrew]

No need to read this

OK

Presumably Snowball you have approached Shane about writing his life story?
Title?
"My Three dads" a tribute to Brian McDermott,Snowball and my real dad.
"The booing game" an insight into Shane's life of misery at RFC after two old pensioners booed him once(heard only by Shane and Brian McD).
"My two left feet" nothing further needs adding but of course it was an Irish film so it can be devoted to all those people who play Gaelic football and shouldn't really be playing football.
"The Trip"how he fell over and got 20 penalties in 5 years
"The Long Good Friday"how Shane is compared to the ultimate RFC legend and statistically the writer (Snowball)PROVES that Shane is a miles better player than the great Robin.

[Snowball]

I prefer

My Second Chance in the Premiership and Winning the Champions League.









I am soooooooooooooo looking forward to watching 587 HNAers eating crow followed by Humble Pie

[Alan Partridge]

VM, Knowing about Shane's love of music. I'm looking forward to the musical instead.

'How Long' Starring Shane naturally and his duet partner here, Stats Domino.

[Victor Meldrew]

I prefer

My Second Chance in the Premiership and Winning the Champions League.









I am soooooooooooooo looking forward to watching 587 HNAers eating crow followed by Humble Pie

But I thought you dealt in facts,not fiction.

[Wycombe Royal]

I haven't yet done his whole career, but he is probably under a goal ever 200 minutes, not far off 1 in 180

I would be VERY surprised if it is that low, so get that calculator number crunching......

[Hoop Blah]

I'm aware that Shane was a supersub for a long time and his first 100 or so appearances give him a wunder-kid scoring rate of around a goal every 133 minutes. But we all know that's a distortion. See Church this season. No goals from 7 starts is it? But 3 goals in 3 TINY sub appearances which totally change his figures.

So you now accept that the argument put forward at the time, that you disagreed with, was actually correct afterall?

[Stranded]

I haven't yet done his whole career, but he is probably under a goal ever 200 minutes, not far off 1 in 180

I would be VERY surprised if it is that low, so get that calculator number crunching......

Going by Soccerbase, Shane Long has spent 8697 mins on the pitch for Reading & ROI scoring 37 goals.

This equates to a goal every 235 mins.

This season, he has played 1582 mins, scoring 6. A goal every 263 mins (just better that 1 in 3) for both Reading and ROI>

So this season, he is scoring at a lesser rate that his career average.

[Snowball]

If soccerbase is correct

[Snowball]

I haven't yet done his whole career, but he is probably under a goal ever 200 minutes, not far off 1 in 180

I would be VERY surprised if it is that low, so get that calculator number crunching......

Going by Soccerbase, Shane Long has spent 8697 mins on the pitch for Reading & ROI scoring 37 goals.
This equates to a goal every 235 mins. This season, he has played 1582 mins, scoring 6. A goal every 263 mins (just better that 1 in 3) for both Reading and ROI>
So this season, he is scoring at a lesser rate that his career average.

They are WRONG. To begin with he has scored 38 goals