Long - Time to go.

[Wimb]

Following URZ lead, won't post again in this you defy all logic Snowball.

[Snowball]

Following URZ lead, won't post again in this you defy all logic Snowball.

Do you dispute that Long has scored 38 goals?

[Snowball]

I haven't yet done his whole career, but he is probably under a goal ever 200 minutes, not far off 1 in 180

I would be VERY surprised if it is that low, so get that calculator number crunching......

Going by Soccerbase, Shane Long has spent 8697 mins on the pitch for Reading & ROI scoring 37 goals.
This equates to a goal every 235 mins.
This season, he has played 1582 mins, scoring 6. A goal every 263 mins (just better that 1 in 3) for both Reading and ROI>
So this season, he is scoring at a lesser rate that his career average.

But in the last ten games (a reasonable snapshot, I'm sure you'd agree

Last 10 Appearances = 05 Goals in 0,775 Minutes = a Goal every 155 Minutes

Nobody disputes that Shane found the opening of this season tough (so did most of his team-mates)

The 451 set-up didn't suit the team, or Shane... but NOW they have found themselves. Two goals in the next 5 games and Shane will be hitting better figures than his career average, even though he's p[laying in a (relatively) sterile system

[Stranded]

They are WRONG. To begin with he has scored 38 goals

You are correct, that have not updated his total apps/goals for Ireland. They do show his goal in the breakdown of fixtures though, meaning this seasons record is correct.

Overall, his record is a goal every 228 minutes of pitch time over his career and 263 mins this season. Very decent, be interesting to see how that is skewed when looking at goals per start (as you mention yourself Church's stats this season are affected majorly by his goals as a sub). If I have time I will look at it - will be interesting to see if there is a noticeable different in his goals per min as a starter, may give creedance to those who feel he currently suits s "super sub" role.

His goals per min in the last 10 games is very good, and if he can keep that form up (or close to) then I don't think anyone will have any complaints. He has had these "purple patches" before though, so there remains a question over whether he can keep it going and by that I mean finish with 15 goals which I think is a fair ask from your main striker.

[supermasssarr]

Apologies if old news

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/footbal ... 194024.stm

[Wycombe Royal]

If soccerbase is correct

Well there's your challenge. Prove them wrong, and show us the stats that show he has a scoring rate of under a goal every 200 minutes.

And by the way, a goal every 228 minutes is very respectable and is probably in the top 10% of strikers........

[brendywendy]

Apologies if old news

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/footbal ... 194024.stm

great post. thankyou.

more of this sort of thing.

it may remind the stat ranters what the thread is actually for

[Snowball]

Robbie Keane has been transferred for 6 million, 7 million, 12 million and 13 million -- 642 Appearances 253 Goals, now aged 30 and 6 months. 45 International Goals in 104 games

Kevin Doyle's last transfer was for 6.5 Million -- 200 UK Appearances for RFC and Wolves 64 Goals, now aged 27 and 3 months. 15 International goals in 40 Games

And Shane Long, Reading Player 84 (83) for RFC and 5 (10) for his country (BUT 5 INTERNATIONAL GOALS ALREADY) is now seriously pushing both of them.

Shouldn't we be congratulating the lad, and lauding a YOUNG Reading player for being up there at such a tender age?

Because it IS (relatively) a tender age. Long has 3 Years and 5 months to close on where Doyle is now

Do you really think he can't score 31 goals in club football, 10 international goals
when he has this two thirds of this season and then THREE MORE SEASONS of play
just to get to Doyle's age today?

31 Goals in 3.7 seasons? Anyone want to take a bet? I think he'll be getting close by the end of 2011-12 and have two seasons in hand

Long to reach 64 Domestic Goals by the end of season 2013-14 (when he will be as old as Doyle is today)
Long to reach 15 International Goals by the end of season 2013-14 (when he will be as old as Doyle is today)

[Wycombe Royal]

Snowball goes off at a tangent again.

[Snowball]

I really think it's interesting how perceptions don't always tally with actuality.

Shane has (or had) the reputation for scoring when he played as a sub
and "being gash" and not scoring when he started. The actual facts deny that.

For example, if the above was true, how many goals would you guess he had scored as a sub versus as a starter?

And the fact is, in his whole career he has only had four ten-game sessions where he has played serious minutes

These figures

7 Goals in 9.34 Games (10 Appearances) Playing 93.4% of all available minutes, 84.5 minutes average, scores 7 goals in 10 Appearances
5 Goals in 7.39 Games (10 Appearances) Playing 73.9% of all available minutes, 66.0 minutes average, scores 5 goals in 10 Appearances
5 Goals in 8.66 Games (10 Appearances) Playing 86.6% of all available minutes, 78.0 minutes average, scores 5 goals in 10 Appearances

One block of ten games APPEARS to show Shane getting regular starts but look again

09 May - 90 Mins v Burnley
12 May - 90 Mins v Burnley

3 MONTH GAP

08 Aug 26 Minutes v Forest

15 Aug 90 Minutes v Newcastle
22 Aug 90 Minutes v Sheffield United

a mere TWO GAME "RUN"

29 Aug 26 Minutes v Barnsley

17 Oct 37 Minutes v WBA

20 Oct 90 minutes v QPR A whole ONE GAME RUN

26 Oct 26 Minutes v Leicester
31 Oct 34 Minutes v Coventry

So YES he had 5 90 minute starts but the first was 09 May and the last was 20 October, 5 "90's" in 24 Weeks


Most managers will say players need significant time to bed in and learn their trade. NcDermott and Trappatoni just this week have said what a difference it's making now that Shane is getting regular lengthened game-time. Every season prior to this one he has taken until December-January to get going. WHY? because he hasn't had the minutes on the pitch. Check how many minutes he had last season under Rodgers (ZERO Goals) then check and see how McDermott used him (9 Goals)

[Snowball]

Snowball goes off at a tangent again.

How is it "a tangent" to note that a player being slagged is actually doing well?

[Wycombe Royal]

Snowball goes off at a tangent again.

How is it "a tangent" to note that a player being slagged is actually doing well?

BUT HE'S NOT BY THE MAJORITY.

Sorry for shouting but I'm hoping you might actually take notice.

[Maguire]

Has he gone yet

[Ian Royal]

They are WRONG. To begin with he has scored 38 goals

You are correct, that have not updated his total apps/goals for Ireland. They do show his goal in the breakdown of fixtures though, meaning this seasons record is correct.

Overall, his record is a goal every 228 minutes of pitch time over his career and 263 mins this season. Very decent, be interesting to see how that is skewed when looking at goals per start (as you mention yourself Church's stats this season are affected majorly by his goals as a sub). If I have time I will look at it - will be interesting to see if there is a noticeable different in his goals per min as a starter, may give creedance to those who feel he currently suits s "super sub" role.

His goals per min in the last 10 games is very good, and if he can keep that form up (or close to) then I don't think anyone will have any complaints. He has had these "purple patches" before though, so there remains a question over whether he can keep it going and by that I mean finish with 15 goals which I think is a fair ask from your main striker.

I don't know what the minutes are for his starts but he's made 66 for us and scored 19 if I've counted correctly. Which is obviously going to mean less than 5940 minutes played but that would mean a goal every 312 minutes or lower.

[Snowball]

One of the things said about Shane is something like "He only comes good in December-January
and he doesn't score consistently over the whole season."

Well there is a REASON FOR THAT. He hasn't been PLAYED very much in the months Aug-Sep-Oct-Nov
and it's only when he starts to get regular match-time that he takes off. The stats are amazing.


Prior to this season he had played
1,966 minutes before December 1st for 03 Goals, a Goal every 655 Minutes
4,817 minutes AFTER December 1st for 27 Goals, a Goal every 178 minutes

There are a few international games goals NOT in there.

To be clear that means, when he is played regularly, when he starts to get regular starts and 60-90 minutes on the pitch he gets a goal in BETTER than 1 goal in 180 minutes.

His overall stats are dragged down by all the piffling little sub appearances Aug-Nov

If you add his numbers for this year, (pre-December including the bad patch) as now he is playing regularly you get 6,304 Minutes, 33 Goals, A goal every 190 Minutes.

Minutes before December 1st 0,000 0 Goals 2005-06
Minutes AFTER December 1st 0,565 4 Goals 2005-06 A Goal every 141 Minutes

Minutes before December 1st 0,404 1 Goals 2006-07 A Goal every 404 Minutes
Minutes AFTER December 1st 0,565 3 Goals 2006-07 A Goal every 188 Minutes

Minutes before December 1st 0,392 1 Goals 2007-08 A Goal every 392 Minutes
Minutes AFTER December 1st 0,619 3 Goals 2007-08 A Goal every 206 Minutes

Minutes before December 1st 0,698 1 Goals 2008-09 A Goal every 698 Minutes
Minutes AFTER December 1st 1,294 8 Goals 2008-09 A Goal every 162 Minutes

Minutes before December 1st 0,472 0 Goals 2009-10
Minutes AFTER December 1st 1,774 9 Goals 2009-10 A Goal every 197 Minutes


TOTALS


This season note the first few games 90-00-00-72-27-90-89 (Scores in 5th actual played game)

Now he's playing 90s back-to-back and starting to score regularly (5 goals in his last ten games)

He is so obviously a player who needs GAMES, consecutive games, 90-minute games, perhaps
because he has less pure-instinct and needs to learn the knack in ongoing competitive situations...

[Snowball]

The Super-Sub thing is a bit of a myth too.

Here are his RFC goals in order, oldest first

24 of his 33 goals have come from starts
01 of his 33 goals came when he came on in the 25th minute and played a 65 minute shift.
08 of his goals came as a short-stint sub

Of his latest 19 goals, just 1 (5%) was as a sub.

That is, apart from his goal at Liverpool, TEN MONTHS AGO you need to go back to the early
days of 2008-09 (March 3rd 2009) for another goal as a sub, TWENTY MONTHS and 16 Days ago!!

He has scored just TWO RFC goals-as-a-sub in 20.5 Months!!

In the last two full calendar years he has scored 3 times for us as a sub (14%), 18 times as a starter (86%)

So can we now drop the idea that he's better as a sub than as a starter?

01 20 SUB
02 89 Start, Cup
03 22 SUB 1
04 22 SUB 2
05 90 Start, Cup
06 90 Start, Cup
07 73 Start
08 80 Start
09 14 SUB
10 7 SUB
11 82 Start
12 65 SUB, On in 25th
13 10 SUB
14 90 START
15 13 SUB

16 90 START 1
17 90 START 2
18 90 START
19 90 START 1
20 90 START 2
21 39 SUB <<<<<<<<<<<<< the Liverpool Goal
22 90 START
23 90 START
24 90 START 1
25 90 START 2
26 90 START 1
27 90 START 2
28 90 START
29 90 START
30 90 START
31 90 START
32 90 START
33 90 START



24 Starts
8 SUB
1 65 Min game

Here they are with the dates

01 20 SUB Derby 2-2 31/12/05
02 89 Start, Cup Birmingham 1-1 28/1/06
03 22 SUB 1 Derby 5-0 1/4/06
04 22 SUB 2 Derby 5-0 1/4/06
05 90 Start, Cup Liverpool 3-4 25/10/06
06 90 Start, Cup Burnley 3-2 9/1/07
07 73 Start Sheff Utd 3-1 20/1/07
08 80 Start Wigan 3-2 30/1/07
09 14 SUB Portsmouth 4-7 29/9/07
10 7 SUB Newcastle 2-1 27/10/07
11 82 Start Man City 2-0 8/3/08
12 65 On in 25th Burnley 3-1 4/10/08
13 10 SUB Norwich 2-0 13/12/08
14 90 START Southampton 1-1 28/12/08
15 13 SUB Sheff Wed 2-1 3/3/09
16 90 START 1 Charlton 2-2 10/3/09
17 90 START 2 Charlton 2-2 10/3/09
18 90 START Derby 2-0 21/4/09
19 90 START 1 Norwich 2-0 27/4/09
20 90 START 2 Norwich 2-0 27/4/09
21 39 SUB Liverpool 2-1 13-January, 2010 2009-10 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
22 90 START Barnsley 1-0 2009-10
23 90 START Doncaster 2-1 2009-10
24 90 START 1 Plymouth 2-1 2009-10
25 90 START 2 Plymouth 2-1 2009-10
26 90 START 1 Villa 2-4 2009-10
27 90 START 2 Villa 2-4 2009-10
28 90 START Derby 4-1 2009-10
29 90 START Peterboro 6-0 2009-10
30 90 START Palace 3-0 2010-11
31 90 START Burnley 4-0 2010-11
32 90 START QPR 1-3 2010-11
33 90 START Norwich 3-3 2010-11

[Terminal Boardom]

I have never seen so much pedantry in my life. Oh for the good old days when players goalscoring exploits were measured by games started and substitute appearances.

Does anyone remember David Fairclough of Liverpool? He was probably the original supersub. Scored lots of goals when coming off the bench. Did not start that many though as he was not good enough to get into the side considering the wealth of talent at Liverpool's disposal back then.

What ever next? Include the number of seconds when someone is on the pitch?

Statistics only give one dimension. They do not give any sort of indication as to how well, or badly, someone is performing. I have mentioned Ollie Kearns before. His goals per game ratio was outstanding. But that did not hide the fact to those around in the 70s and 80s that he was one of the most infuriating players ever to wear the hoops. He could make the easy look impossible and the difficult look ridiculously easy. Now, how DID that song go?

Back to Long

Goals per game ratio is low for a striker who has been at the club for such a long time. It should be better but it isn't. What is of more interest to me is how the club go about exploiting his talents to the full. I really don't give a flying one if he is scoring at this many minutes, that many minutes, or even if he perfers playing against teams that have one kit manufacturer or another. It really is not that important. What is is that the club do something about it.

[Wycombe Royal]

So we have now established that Shane Long doesn't score regularly enough from open play and that he also is not a super sub. So what is he good for apart from winning and scoring penalties?

[Vision]

Shane Long Stat Attack #747

Prior to this season 10 of Long's 23 league goals have come against sides that were eventually relegated.

14 of those 23 league goals came against sides who finished in the bottom 4 .

In total 16 of those 23 league goals came against sides who finished in the bottom 3rd of the table.

9 of his 27 career league goals (one third) have come against two teams. Norwich & Derby.

Now thats Stats!!!

[facaldaqui]

I have never seen so much pedantry in my life. Oh for the good old days when players goalscoring exploits were measured by games started and substitute appearances.

Does anyone remember David Fairclough of Liverpool? He was probably the original supersub. Scored lots of goals when coming off the bench. Did not start that many though as he was not good enough to get into the side considering the wealth of talent at Liverpool's disposal back then.

What ever next? Include the number of seconds when someone is on the pitch?

Statistics only give one dimension. They do not give any sort of indication as to how well, or badly, someone is performing. I have mentioned Ollie Kearns before. His goals per game ratio was outstanding. But that did not hide the fact to those around in the 70s and 80s that he was one of the most infuriating players ever to wear the hoops. He could make the easy look impossible and the difficult look ridiculously easy. Now, how DID that song go?

Back to Long

Goals per game ratio is low for a striker who has been at the club for such a long time. It should be better but it isn't. What is of more interest to me is how the club go about exploiting his talents to the full. I really don't give a flying one if he is scoring at this many minutes, that many minutes, or even if he perfers playing against teams that have one kit manufacturer or another. It really is not that important. What is is that the club do something about it.

Agreed. I wouldn't mind his not scoring if we were winning; but we could clearly win more than we do (Brian keeps saying we deserved more out of games). I'll tell you what beggars belief for me: that Long hasn't scored more goals simply by being there. Why hasn't he scored any standard forward goals (apart from one) like Hunt scored on Saturday? Why hasn't he even scored a fluke like Church did? Why hasn't he scored a tap in like Antonio's, or from a scrap like Harte did? I know we all delusionally say it, but I sometimes think I could score a goal or two merely by being Johnny on the spot in the penalty area. Why don't easy chances fall to Long?