Long - Time to go.

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Snowball
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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 19 Nov 2010 14:26

Ian Royal I don't know what the minutes are for his starts but he's made 66 for us and scored 19 if I've counted correctly. Which is obviously going to mean less than 5940 minutes played but that would mean a goal every 312 minutes or lower.


I make it 24 goals from start, 1 goal when he played 65 minutes, 8 as a sub

I think this is all his STARTS

59 Start West Brom 1
89 Start West Brom 2
89 Start Birmingham 3
68 Start Birmingham 4
90 Start Stoke 5
120 Start Darlington 6
73 Start Arsenal 7
90 Start Liverpool 8
53 Start Portsmouth 9
90 Start Burnley 10
73 Start Sheff Utd 11
80 Start Wigan 12
75 Start Man City 13
62 Start Villa 14
62 Start Middlesbro 15
90 Start Charlton 16
65 Start Blackburn 17
74 Start Chelsea 18
90 Start Everton 19
90 Start Bolton 20
78 Start Liverpool 21
90 Start otten'm 22
90 Start Totten'm 23
90 Start Mi'lesbro 24
82 Start Man City 25
63 Start Liverpool 26
61 Start Fulham 27
90 Start Dag & Red 28
60 Start Luton 29
68 Start Palace 30
60 Start Ipswich 31
120 Start Stoke 32
90 Start So'ton 33
90 Start Cardiff 34
90 Start Charlton 35
90 Start Coventry 36
79 Start Blackpool 37
90 Start Derby 38
90 Start Norwich 39
90 Start Birm'gham 40
90 Start Burnley 41
90 Start Burnley 42
90 Start Newc'le 43
90 Start Sheff U 44
90 Start QPR - - 45
73 Start Bristol 46
55 Start Swansea 47
60 Start Plymouth 48
90 Start Sheff' Utd 49
90 Start Barnsley 50
90 Start Doncaster 51
90 Start Plymouth 52
90 Start West BA 53
90 Start A Villa 54
90 Start Derby 55
73 Start Bristol 56
55 Start QPR - 57
60 Start Mi'lesbro 58
75 Start Leicester 59
65 Start West BA 60
73 Start Ipswich 61
64 Start Cardiff 62
79 Start Newcastle 63
90 Start Peterboro 64
61 Start Watford 65
84 Start Preston 66
90 Start Sc'nthorpe 67
72 Start Forest 68
90 Start Leicester 69
90 Start Palace 70
90 Start Millwall 71
89 Start Mi'lesbro 72
85 Start Barnsley 73
80 Start Ipswich 74
90 Start Preston 75
76 Start Swansea 76
75 Start Bristol 77
90 Start Burnley 78
55 Start Doncaster 79
90 Start QPR 80
90 Start Cardiff 81
90 Start Norwich 82

and that totals 6632 minutes, 24 goals, 1 Goal every 276 minutes (3 Games)

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 19 Nov 2010 14:28

Wycombe Royal So we have now established that Shane Long doesn't score regularly enough from open play and that he also is not a super sub. So what is he good for apart from winning and scoring penalties? :wink:


Wink yourself.

He scores plenty of goals in open play, about 85% compared to Doyle's 89% and Kitson's 88%

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 19 Nov 2010 14:40

Vision Shane Long Stat Attack #747

Prior to this season 10 of Long's 23 league goals have come against sides that were eventually relegated.




Long is so powerful just playing him gets you relegated.



In total 16 of those 23 league goals came against sides who finished in the bottom 3rd of the table.



Perhaps because the manager gave him a run-out then


If you are trying to suggest he can't score against better teams, then you'd have to show that when he plays better sides he doesn't score

2 versus Villa Premiership Side
2 versus Liverpool Premiership Side
1 versus Manchester City, Premiership
1 versus Portsmouth, Premiership
1 versus Sheffield United, Premiership
1 versus Newcastle., Premiership
1 AN Other, Premiership
1 versus QPR, top of Championship
1 versus Norwich, 7th in Championship
1 versus Burnley 6th in Championship

12/33 35% of his goals against sides in the top 26 in the country.
Last edited by Snowball on 19 Nov 2010 14:43, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 19 Nov 2010 14:42

facaldaqui w

Why don't easy chances fall to Long?



Because he's busy making them for others? (I make it 8 goals he's been involved in, two direct assists)

Because he's often wide making space?

Becasue when central he's heavily marked?

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by facaldaqui » 19 Nov 2010 14:54

Snowball
facaldaqui w

Why don't easy chances fall to Long?



Because he's busy making them for others? (I make it 8 goals he's been involved in, two direct assists)

Because he's often wide making space?

Becasue when central he's heavily marked?


I know. But by the law of averages, you'd think a chance would bounce to him off an opponent or the ball get crossed to him as it did to Antonio. Or one of his shots go in. Why doesn't he get a chance like Harte had? Harte is busy elsewhere also. I'm not dissing Long for his all round contribution, which is quite impressive this season--but the best strikers also make chances for themselves--often out of thin air.


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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Hoop Blah » 19 Nov 2010 15:01

Indeed facaldaqui, there have been plenty of times the balls been in and aroud the box whilst Longs been in there, and many where he's just been in the wrong place.

When things aren't going your way that happens, but to an extent I think it's an instinct thing and some players are just good at reading the way the balls going to drop and natural get those fluke or easy chances.

Long isn't really one of those players.

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Wycombe Royal » 19 Nov 2010 15:09

Snowball 12/33 35% of his goals against sides in the top 26 in the country.

But remember he has NEVER played outside of the top two divisions, so you might actually expect that percentage to be a bit higher.

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 19 Nov 2010 15:12

Don't dispute the above, nor am I (in this post) defending Long, but
if you take a look at some of the 90 minute matches on the OS he's
not getting that much luck at the moment, and it's not all "bad finishing"

The volley v Norwich, you just hit them, you haven't time to direct it other than goalwards.

They go in, you're a star, they hit the keeper it's a miss.

He's had two cracking "goals" laid on for Church but both times Church hit the keeper. At least once he's been inches from a ball (eg Church's miss-hit that went agonisingly wide.


IMO he's doing all the right things and having to earn every goal, no freebies, no luck so far this season.

Some time soon he's gonna get some luck, mis-hits going in, keepers getting it wrong,
rebounds off his ass, etc. He's due a hat-trick and RFC are due a 5-0/6-0 win

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Wycombe Royal » 19 Nov 2010 15:17

I don't disagree with much of that, but you also don't point out that when he has had chances laid on by others he has failed to look convincing. The chance at the start against Norwich, the chance from Harte's long ball, the chance against Cardiff, the list goes on.

I'm certain he will hit a purple patch again, but if history is anything to go by it will be just a purple patch.


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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 19 Nov 2010 15:20

Wycombe Royal
Snowball 12/33 35% of his goals against sides in the top 26 in the country.

But remember he has NEVER played outside of the top two divisions, so you might actually expect that percentage to be a bit higher.


17 (40) = 23.33 versus top 20 sides (Premiership and Prem sides in Cups)
65 (42) = 72.00 versus sides not in the top 20




24.47 of games versus Premiership Sides
75.53 of games v CCC sides and a few lower

But 10 of his 33 goals 30.3% (v Premiership sides) have been in 24.47% of his games, so he is EXCEEDING expectations/expected average

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Vision » 19 Nov 2010 15:21

Snowball
Vision Shane Long Stat Attack #747

Prior to this season 10 of Long's 23 league goals have come against sides that were eventually relegated.




Long is so powerful just playing him gets you relegated.



In total 16 of those 23 league goals came against sides who finished in the bottom 3rd of the table.



Perhaps because the manager gave him a run-out then


If you are trying to suggest he can't score against better teams, then you'd have to show that when he plays better sides he doesn't score

2 versus Villa Premiership Side
2 versus Liverpool Premiership Side
1 versus Manchester City, Premiership
1 versus Portsmouth, Premiership
1 versus Sheffield United, Premiership
1 versus Newcastle., Premiership
1 AN Other, Premiership
1 versus QPR, top of Championship
1 versus Norwich, 7th in Championship
1 versus Burnley 6th in Championship

12/33 35% of his goals against sides in the top 26 in the country.




Apologies I thought you'd appreciate the interesting and enlightening slant my particular stats put on Long's career league record.

I'd say its odd that a man involved in over 140 league games with 27 league goals should have scored a 3rd of them against just 2 clubs.

I'd say its odd that over 50% of his league goals came against sides that eventually occupied the bottom 4 places in the respective division. Either 1/5th or 1/6th of their respective divisions.

We know he's scored league goals against sides that didnt finish in the bottom 4 but don't you think its a pretty unusual statistic for someone to have scored such a high percentage of his league goals against such a small percentage of his overall opponents?

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Wycombe Royal » 19 Nov 2010 15:31

Snowball
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Snowball 12/33 35% of his goals against sides in the top 26 in the country.

But remember he has NEVER played outside of the top two divisions, so you might actually expect that percentage to be a bit higher.


17 (40) = 23.33 versus top 20 sides (Premiership and Prem sides in Cups)
65 (42) = 72.00 versus sides not in the top 20




24.47 of games versus Premiership Sides
75.53 of games v CCC sides and a few lower

But 10 of his 33 goals 30.3% (v Premiership sides) have been in 24.47% of his games, so he is EXCEEDING expectations/expected average

Can you revert it to the 26 sides you had in your original posting of the stats rather than moving the goal posts again. You keep doing this and is something that people keep criticising you for. There was a reason you chose 26 teams originally so stick to it.

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 19 Nov 2010 15:33

Wycombe Royal I don't disagree with much of that, but you also don't point out that when he has had chances laid on by others he has failed to look convincing. The chance at the start against Norwich, the chance from Harte's long ball, the chance against Cardiff, the list goes on.

I'm certain he will hit a purple patch again, but if history is anything to go by it will be just a purple patch.


I don't see that volley against Norwich as a bad miss.

And take a look again at the other one (from Harte's long ball)
First he does awfully well to make it a chance, and as it drops it's just wrong and he has to change feet.
It's a bit unlucky.


I don't dispute that Torres or Gerard would have scored it, but it's just a rub of the green thing.

Same way the lob could've dropped in, or the 25 yarder that was well-saved.

I don't think it's instinct... for example Church had a very good striker's goal (the volley from Antonio) but the deflection of Karacan's shot, nope, or the mis-hit cross at Burnley, nope.

With just a tiny bit of luck (and taking that other penalty, Long could be on something like 8 goals.


I think he's going to have a big season barring injuries. He's absolutely MILES ahead of any other season

0 League Goals - 0 Goals Total 19-November 2005
0 League Goals - 1 Goals Total 19-November 2006 (Liverpool, League Cup)
2 League Goals - 2 Goals Total 19-November 2007
1 League Goals - 0 Goals Total 19-November 2008
0 League Goals - 0 Goals Total 19-November 2009
4 League Goals - 4 Goals Total 19-November 2010 (Plus 2 International Goals)


So he has one goal more at today's date than he managed in 5 Seasons before this one!!


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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Wycombe Royal » 19 Nov 2010 15:37

Snowball I think he's going to have a big season barring injuries. He's absolutely MILES ahead of any other season

0 League Goals - 0 Goals Total 19-November 2005
0 League Goals - 1 Goals Total 19-November 2006 (Liverpool, League Cup)
2 League Goals - 2 Goals Total 19-November 2007
1 League Goals - 0 Goals Total 19-November 2008
0 League Goals - 0 Goals Total 19-November 2009
4 League Goals - 4 Goals Total 19-November 2010 (Plus 2 International Goals)


So he has one goal more at today's date than he managed in 5 Seasons before this one!!

How many minutes has he played this season compared to those other seasons? This is a genuine question, no ulterior motive.

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 19 Nov 2010 15:38

Wycombe Royal [
Can you revert it to the 26 sides you had in your original posting of the stats rather than moving the goal posts again. You keep doing this and is something that people keep criticising you for. There was a reason you chose 26 teams originally so stick to it.




Not without a heck of a lot of work.

I wasn't fudging.

I can see quickly all the Premiership sides he's scored against, and I know from memory THIS SEASON's opposition
and how good they are QPR, Burnley, Norwich, all top-end.

But do do the rest I would need to look at every goal he scored, and then check the league table to see where the club ended up.

For example he scored a couple v Birmingham (28-1-06) and Burnley in cups, (9-1-07) I think, but I don't remember whether they were high in the CCC or Premiership at the time

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Wycombe Royal » 19 Nov 2010 15:41

Snowball Not without a heck of a lot of work.

I wasn't fudging.

I can see quickly all the Premiership sides he's scored against, and I know from memory THIS SEASON's opposition
and how good they are QPR, Burnley, Norwich, all top-end.

But do do the rest I would need to look at every goal he scored, and then check the league table to see where the club ended up.

For example he scored a couple v Birmingham (28-1-06) and Burnley in cups, (9-1-07) I think, but I don't remember whether they were high in the CCC or Premiership at the time

Fair enough I hadn't thought of it like that, still would be interesting to see, but maybe it would be more accurate to base it on the postion the team was in when we played them as that is a more accurate basis of how good they were at that time. The official site I believe has the league table as it stood for each match? And no I am not volunteering to do it. :D

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Vision » 19 Nov 2010 15:43

Snowball

I think he's going to have a big season barring injuries. He's absolutely MILES ahead of any other season

0 League Goals - 0 Goals Total 19-November 2005
0 League Goals - 1 Goals Total 19-November 2006 (Liverpool, League Cup)
2 League Goals - 2 Goals Total 19-November 2007
1 League Goals - 0 Goals Total 19-November 2008
0 League Goals - 0 Goals Total 19-November 2009
4 League Goals - 4 Goals Total 19-November 2010 (Plus 2 International Goals)


So he has one goal more at today's date than he managed in 5 Seasons before this one!!


I admire your optimism but the only dfference really is that he's on penalties now.

All well and good if we continue to get them and he continues to convert them at the current rate but we're back to the same old point that although his all round game is improving his goalscoring record (penalties aside) isn't. And thats despite having more league starts so far this season than in those previous ones at this stage.

I've no doubt he will end the season with more league goals than any other but whether its enough for a main striker who's on penalties and starting nearly every game is very much open to debate.

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Royal With Cheese » 19 Nov 2010 15:46

Is it just me, or have we been given considerably more penalties over the last couple of seasons than in previous years?

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 19 Nov 2010 15:47

Wycombe Royal
How many minutes has he played this season compared to those other seasons? This is a genuine question, no ulterior motive.


I posted on that, extensively and showed that whenever he has had a GOOD run of starts he has scored well.

He doesn't seem to do well until he's played a few games back to back

Except for this season he's been dicked about playing League Cup games with reserve sides (almost) and picking up scraps.
Then around December he starts to get significant minutes. The APPARENT lean spells and purple patches AREN'T.

They are mostly due to not getting game time.

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Re: Long - Time to go.
Post Snowball, 19 Nov 2010 14:57
One of the things said about Shane is something like "He only comes good in December-January
and he doesn't score consistently over the whole season."

Well there is a REASON FOR THAT. He hasn't been PLAYED very much in the months Aug-Sep-Oct-Nov
and it's only when he starts to get regular match-time that he takes off. The stats are amazing.


Prior to this season he had played
1,966 minutes before December 1st for 03 Goals, a Goal every 655 Minutes
4,817 minutes AFTER December 1st for 27 Goals, a Goal every 178 minutes

There are a few international games goals NOT in there.

To be clear that means, when he is played regularly, when he starts to get regular starts and 60-90 minutes on the pitch he gets a goal in BETTER than 1 goal in 180 minutes.

His overall stats are dragged down by all the piffling little sub appearances Aug-Nov

If you add his numbers for this year, (pre-December including the bad patch) as now he is playing regularly you get 6,304 Minutes, 33 Goals, A goal every 190 Minutes.

Minutes before December 1st 0,000 0 Goals 2005-06 (So obviously no goals!!!!)
Minutes AFTER December 1st 0,565 4 Goals 2005-06 A Goal every 141 Minutes

Minutes before December 1st 0,404 1 Goals 2006-07 A Goal every 404 Minutes
Minutes AFTER December 1st 0,565 3 Goals 2006-07 A Goal every 188 Minutes

Minutes before December 1st 0,392 1 Goals 2007-08 A Goal every 392 Minutes
Minutes AFTER December 1st 0,619 3 Goals 2007-08 A Goal every 206 Minutes

Minutes before December 1st 0,698 1 Goals 2008-09 A Goal every 698 Minutes
Minutes AFTER December 1st 1,294 8 Goals 2008-09 A Goal every 162 Minutes

Minutes before December 1st 0,472 0 Goals 2009-10
Minutes AFTER December 1st 1,774 9 Goals 2009-10 A Goal every 197 Minutes

So his season's minutes have been split pre-Dec 1 and Post Dec-1

00% - 100%
41% - 059%
39% - 061%
35% - 070%
21% - 079%

But it isn't just that he gets more time. His goalscoring RATE ROCKETS

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Tony Le Mesmer » 19 Nov 2010 15:48

Pens maybe, but seeing as Long in the one winning us the Pen in the 1st place, its the same as scoring. 4 Pens this year and Long has 'won' them all. Thats no less an effective contribution than scoring from open play.

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