Long - Time to go.

[Snowball]

From 2003-2006 Hunt scored just 8 goals in 80 appearances for Dunfermline

Or to put it another way, from aged almost 20 to aged 22.5 he scored 8 goals in 80 appearances A Goal every 10 Appearances

Then, starting as 23 years 8 months (Long is 23-10 now) he managed 23 goals in 64 appearances A Goal every 2.78 Appearances

So, simply he became about four times more lethal when he got to be 24 or so, compared to 20-23 years old.

Long will get better, Church will get better, Karacan will get better, HRK will get better, Antonio will get better.

They are all relatively young with massive potential to improve.

[Wycombe Royal]

Noel Hunt was severealy disrupted by injuries at Dunfermline and nearly half of his 80 league appearances (38 to be exact) were as a substitute.

[Maguire]

So, Long won us another "Penalty" today? Im losing count. 1 poor decision away from a match winning performance.

Or an inability to finish away from a match-winning performance..

[Snowball]

Jay Bothroyd matures into deadly striker

Age 19 33 Appearances = 03 Goals = 1 in 11.0 Appearances Coventry 2001-02
Age 20 39 Appearances = 11 Goals = 1 in 03.5 Appearances Coventry 2002-03
Age 21 28 Appearances = 05 Goals = 1 in 05.6 Appearances Pergugia
Age 22 11 Appearances = 01 Goals = 1 in 11.0 Appearances Blackburn
Age 23 18 Appearances = 02 Goals = 1 in 09.0 Appearances Charlton
Age 24 33 Appearances = 09 Goals = 1 in 03.7 Appearances Wolves 2006-7
Age 25 24 Appearances = 04 Goals = 1 in 06.0 Appearances Wolves 2007-8
Age 25 04 Appearances = 00 Goals = 0 in 00.0 Appearances Stoke
Age 26 44 Appearances = 12 Goals = 1 in 03.7 Appearances Cardiff 2008-09
Age 27 45 Appearances = 13 Goals = 1 in 03.5 Appearances Cardiff 2009-10
Age 28 17 Appearances = 15 Goals = 1 in 01.1 Appearances Cardiff 2010-11

A promising Arsenal trainee, Bothroyd did well in his second season at Coventry
but then managed just 21 goals in about five seasons. But when he hit 26 he started
to find the net more regularly, was better at 27 and even better the season after

Now at 28 is lethal and top of the goal-scoring charts.

[Woodcote Royal]

OR over two years, Giovanni Trapattoni has been searching for a striking alternative to Robbie Keane and Kevin Doyle. Now it appears as though the answer was sitting there the whole time.

By now, Shane Long would be qualified enough to publish a Christmas stocking filler describing the view from the substitutes' benches in a variety of different grounds around Europe.

When available, the Reading striker is an ever-present in the Italian's squad selections. He was an extra in the World Cup qualifying campaign, a figure in a tracksuit who watched as individuals like Caleb Folan and Leon Best were promoted into big games, while he jostled for a place in the dugout.

All of a sudden, Long is looking like a different player for Ireland this autumn. His impressive substitute appearance against Russia last month was followed by a starring role in the draw with Slovakia in Zilina and another promising outing in the otherwise disappointing defeat to Norway on Wednesday night.

The plaudits have rained in from every direction, and there's a movement forming which argues that, if Keane remains in the background at Spurs, then perhaps it is time for Long to be promoted to the starting XI.

It's hard to imagine Trapattoni contemplating that, but there's one question that remains outstanding. On this evidence, why is Long still playing in the Championship? And why is there no speculation linking him with a move to the top flight?

It might come as a surprise to those who have been wowed by the 23-year-old's recent outings for his country that, at Reading, the fans are still unsure about the merits of the ex-Cork City striker.

On one of the most popular fan forums, an irate poster started a thread named, 'Long -- Time To Go' in frustration after the 1-0 defeat to Bristol City last month. As of yesterday, there was over 1,500 messages in response and no clear consensus.

Clearly, it's a divisive argument.

The thrust of the criticism is that while he may be a hard worker, his strike rate is below par. In short, he needs too many chances to score, and is not the man to lead the Royals back to the top division.

Long has started 16 games for Brian McDermott's side this year and scored four goals. But three of those came from the penalty spot; his calm spot-kick conversion for Ireland the other night demonstrated his comfort in that department. The return from open play is seized upon by his detractors.

In truth, the last couple of years have been slightly unusual for Long. After developing an effective super-sub reputation when Steve Coppell brought Reading to the Premier League, a change of personnel thrust responsibility upon his shoulders. When Kevin Doyle set sail for Wolves, Long started the 2009/10 campaign as favourite to be the Championship's top scorer with a new boss in Brendan Rodgers.

announced

Through a combination of injury and loss of form, he didn't score a goal until January, with Rodgers already having got the bullet. Long used to lodge with the new manager McDermott -- who had championed his recruitment in the first place -- and got off the mark with a strike that helped knock Liverpool out of the FA Cup.

It was a mixed bag for the rest of the campaign, with a brace against Aston Villa proving again that he can trouble elite defenders. But the flip side was a moderate total in the league -- hence the scepticism from the Madejski Stadium patrons carrying over into this campaign.

Earlier this month -- just a few weeks after brilliantly deputising for Doyle in Zilina -- he was booed by a section of Reading fans when he was replaced during a Championship meeting with Doncaster.

"Shane is still learning," said McDermott, in his defence. "But over the years, fans do sometimes give players a tough time. Shane had a difficult period with injuries but I know once he gets a few more goals, the fans will be on his side. The fact is we need fans to help him rather than go the other way. Confidence is a major factor in football, and every player is affected by it."

In the days after the Doncaster heckles, the club announced that Long had signed a new contract until 2012. He enjoys a good standard of living in Berkshire, and is believed to earn in the region of £15,000 a week, a hangover from the Premier League stint. Having become a father in the past year, his situation has changed off the pitch. Now, Irish fans are starting to see a growing maturity when he crosses the white line.

As it happens, there were parallels between his Irish outing during week and his previous club appearance for Reading in Saturday's 3-3 draw with Norwich. He was a bustling presence in that game and was on the mark with a penalty before missing a gilt-edged chance to claim three points.

Long was superb against Norway, yet his composure in front of goal let him down with Ireland on top in the second half. Considering he made the chances through his own endeavour, the profligacy was forgiven.

The ideal scenario is that the morale boost from his Irish displays propels the ex-Tipperary minor hurler to the next level. Certainly, there's no doubting his ability to make it there, but it won't happen until he finds the consistency to match the potential.

Irish Independent

Dear Ireland,

Please resist the temptation to give any credence to a bunch of "no nothings" from Berkshire.

As a Reading fan, it is impossible to avoid reading all of their drivel but there really is no need for you to trouble yourselves with such ill informed nonsense.

When Long has played for Ireland in recent weeks he has looked a quality play. When we beat Liverpool in their own back yard Long was a star performer yet "apparently" to some on this thread, created by those with too much time on their hands, Shane isn't fit to grace the Championship and should be disposed of ASAP.

So, here we have a 23 year old full International striker who should be kicked out of our 2nd tier rear entrance because resident idiots can't see beyond the fact our lone striker has been some what light on goals this season, and choose to ignore impressive tallys elsewhere in the team that would not have been possible without Longs hard work at the sharp end.

Why not trust your own judgement? If Long looks the part in international company that would suggest he is light years better than some are suggesting here.

Or, what about Brian McDermott and Giovanni Trapattoni?

"Doyler's injured and I'd like to give Shane ago but they think he's cr@p in Berkshire"

[Victor Meldrew]

Woodcote,
There is international football.........................and then there is Ireland,a country for whom Kevin Kilbane has 100 caps.
That says it all really.

[cmonurz]

What's up? Don't like me using the stats you use?

No I just don't like YOU.
The last few days the conversation on this thread was civil and I even got PMs about it. You're like a sad old poisoned dwarf. I bet you were PRAYING Long wouldn't score, so you could slither back in here and try to cause more discord.

How sad, I was nothing but civil to you for 70 odd pages, we just disagreed about a few things and your mouth/typing ran away with you.

What am I praying for? That Long becomes a clinical striker, because if he does, we might have a small chance of promotion this season. Without a 20 goal a season forward, we won't get near promotion, imho, and we sure as hell aren't going to be buying one in the January transfer window.

Not liking someone because they disagree with you. How pathetic.

I'll leave you to your thread now - you should read the last few pages and realise that you are only finding it more civil because in the main people have stopped bothering to disagree with you.

You've also stopped bothering to answer any point that does happen to counter your stats, which has further helped to stop this thread 'simmering'.

I'm exiting stage right again - and hoping Long improves on 1 goal from 27 attempts, and can bring that somewhere towards the average you quoted of 1 in 4.

[skipper]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqZFcXQ16L4

Freakin' hilarious!

"A Reading Career montage of Shane Long"

Weighing in at 1:25.....

[Stranded]

Jay Bothroyd matures into deadly striker

Age 19 33 Appearances = 03 Goals = 1 in 11.0 Appearances Coventry 2001-02
Age 20 39 Appearances = 11 Goals = 1 in 03.5 Appearances Coventry 2002-03
Age 21 28 Appearances = 05 Goals = 1 in 05.6 Appearances Pergugia
Age 22 11 Appearances = 01 Goals = 1 in 11.0 Appearances Blackburn
Age 23 18 Appearances = 02 Goals = 1 in 09.0 Appearances Charlton
Age 24 33 Appearances = 09 Goals = 1 in 03.7 Appearances Wolves 2006-7
Age 25 24 Appearances = 04 Goals = 1 in 06.0 Appearances Wolves 2007-8
Age 25 04 Appearances = 00 Goals = 0 in 00.0 Appearances Stoke
Age 26 44 Appearances = 12 Goals = 1 in 03.7 Appearances Cardiff 2008-09
Age 27 45 Appearances = 13 Goals = 1 in 03.5 Appearances Cardiff 2009-10
Age 28 17 Appearances = 15 Goals = 1 in 01.1 Appearances Cardiff 2010-11

A promising Arsenal trainee, Bothroyd did well in his second season at Coventry
but then managed just 21 goals in about five seasons. But when he hit 26 he started
to find the net more regularly, was better at 27 and even better the season after

Now at 28 is lethal and top of the goal-scoring charts.

Isn't it also possible that at 26 he also found a settled club, and wasn't moving from pillar to post as he had done previously, thus seeing his performances improve? If hr'd had that earlier in his career then he may well have done much, much better in his career.

[Woodcote Royal]

Woodcote,
There is international football.........................and then there is Ireland,a country for whom Kevin Kilbane has 100 caps.
That says it all really.

Regarding your ability to remove the Superglue from those blinkers...........................for sure.

[Snowball]

Noel Hunt was severealy disrupted by injuries at Dunfermline and nearly half of his 80 league appearances (38 to be exact) were as a substitute.

I'm sure. That means he had 42 Starts (52.5%) and 38 Sub Appearances ( = 48.2 ) for his 8 goals, a little worse than 1 in 6 STARTS

In Shane Long's first 4 Seasons he had 28 (70) League Appearances Just 28.6% Starts

In Shane Long's first 5 Seasons he had 45 (79) League Appearances Just 38.7% Starts

This season he has been starting, but that means in his whole career on 45.8% of his League Appearances have been starts.

If he starts every single league game for the rest of the season his League starts will be 95 (79) = 54.5% about where Noel was at Dunfermline

SHANE LONG

League ---------------- Cup

01 (10) 03 Goals ==== 04 (00) 1 Goals 2005-06
09 (12) 02 Goals ==== 03 (00) 2 Goals 2006-07
07 (22) 03 Goals ==== 03 (00) 0 Goals 2007-08
11 (26) 09 Goals ==== 04 (00) 0 Goals 2008-09
22 (09) 06 Goals ==== 02 (03) 3 Goals 2009-10
17 (00) 04 Goals ==== 00 (01) 0 Goals 2010-11

67 (79) 27 Goals ==== 16 (04) 6 Goals Career

95 (79)

[Snowball]

I'll leave you to your thread now - you should read the last few pages and realise that you are only finding it more civil because in the main people have stopped bothering to disagree with you.

Is that like the other time you "left"?

[cmonurz]

I'll leave you to your thread now - you should read the last few pages and realise that you are only finding it more civil because in the main people have stopped bothering to disagree with you.

Is that like the other time you "left"?

Believe it or not I thought that having seen the tone of the thread change, I could return and post my opinion without getting another dig from you. Sadly not.

[Snowball]

Isn't it also possible that at 26 he also found a settled club, and wasn't moving from pillar to post as he had done previously, thus seeing his performances improve? If hr'd had that earlier in his career then he may well have done much, much better in his career.

Of course. It's also possible that finally he was given a regular run of starts and significant pitch-time.

It's ALSO possible that he matured physically as he reached his 26th birthday
It's also possible that he matured MENTALLY as he reached his 26th birthday
it's also possible that he began to use the experience gained between 19 and 26

These are MORE likely because it's known that players peak around 26-27 (CBs even later)
as is shown by the ages of players in the Actim List

[Snowball]

Believe it or not I thought that having seen the tone of the thread change, I could return and post my opinion without getting another dig from you. Sadly not.

So that's twice, already that you didn't really leave?

[Victor Meldrew]

All joking aside, I still think Long is our best striker. He's just not good enough and is never going to score enough goals to be the main striker in a team challenging for the title or realistically even the playoffs.

This is what Maguire posted on another thread and sums up what a lot of people (apart from Snowball and now Woodcote who feel the sun shines out of Long's a***)feel-with him and the other two as our strikers there is no way that we will get back to the Premier League.
All three work hard and try hard but that is about it and why (Brian doesn't seem to understand) we keep on drawing games that we might otherwise have a chance of winning.

[cmonurz]

Do you think Rooney will have a better season at 26/27 than he had in 09-10 for United?

At 26/27 will Ronaldo beat his 40-odd goals for United in 08-09?

There's no hard and fast rule, and plenty of examples such as the above to the contrary.


As for my presence on this thread, I'll post on it when I please, but want I won't be doing is bothering to reply when you challenge anything I post. I only get abuse for it.

[Stranded]

Isn't it also possible that at 26 he also found a settled club, and wasn't moving from pillar to post as he had done previously, thus seeing his performances improve? If hr'd had that earlier in his career then he may well have done much, much better in his career.

Of course. It's also possible that finally he was given a regular run of starts and significant pitch-time.

It's ALSO possible that he matured physically as he reached his 26th birthday
It's also possible that he matured MENTALLY as he reached his 26th birthday
it's also possible that he began to use the experience gained between 19 and 26

These are MORE likely because it's known that players peak around 26-27 (CBs even later)
as is shown by the ages of players in the Actim List

Agreed that is all possible. Unfortunately for us, we don't have a 26-27 year old Shane Long at the moment, as I don't doubt he will get better as he ages (he has in his time here) the problem remains that as he appears to be the favoured option and his lack of maturity has seen chances go begging that an older calmer head would have taken (in my opinion) and would likely have seen us nestled in a play off spot (and possibly chasing down the top 2) rather than 11th. I'm not saying for a moment that others haven't missed decent chances but it is magnified more for him as he has become our first (and often only) choice striker.

[Victor Meldrew]

Snowball,
To compare Long with Walcott in your earlier post is plain crazy.
Walcott is an ernomous talent with brains who I think has already scored something like 7 goals this season at the top level and doesn't play every week-Shane Long is a workmanlike lower division footballer.
Goalscoring is not something you can teach-you can create a greater calm in a player but a sense of positioning and awareness is something that players either have or haven't when they are strikers.
Long has shown that he can place a dead-ball penalty along with the best Premier League strikers but his finishing of a moving ball is strictly 3rd division.

[Snowball]

Do you think Rooney will have a better season at 26/27 than he had in 09-10 for United?

At 26/27 will Ronaldo beat his 40-odd goals for United in 08-09? There's no hard and fast rule, and plenty of examples such as the above to the contrary.
As for my presence on this thread, I'll post on it when I please, but want I won't be doing is bothering to reply when you challenge anything I post. I only get abuse for it.

Good researchers don't go searching for freakish exceptions. You pick out Rooney and Ronaldo (TWO STRIKERS) when every Premiership side has at least 4 (72) and even then you are only POSTULATING that they MIGHT not do as well in the future. Now add in the 100 or thereabouts in the CC and the 100 or thereabouts in League 1 and the hundred or thereabouts in League 2, so you're showing 2 from 350-400 names who MIGHT not improve!!

Sure you get a freakish wunderkid who burns out or pisses it up against the wall, but 95-99% of players follow a predictable pattern which is why (famously and incorrectly) some pundit once said that "You never win anything with kids" and the average age of winning sides is 26-30

That's why the Actim Index members have an average age of 27 right now.


What percentage of first-teamers would you guess to be under 20, 21-23, 24-26, 27+ ???

05% 16-20
15% 21-23
35% 24-26
45% 27+

That look about right to you? Why IS that