Long - Time to go.

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Snowball
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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 26 Nov 2010 00:49

Ian Royal Church has a fair amount of pace, and will chase things down. Long isn't especially quick. But Church really lacks the weight and strength of Long so I think it's fair to say Long is likely to be the only one who'd get in those particular positions, just not the only one likely to get one-on-ones.


Long isn't especially quick? Really?


He's had two against Watford, I believe there was at least another against Cardiff, though I forget. Then there's the one against Brizzle. So he's had an absolute minimum of 7 one-on-ones. He's been brought down with minimal contact on four of them having not looked particularly like he was about to score and has missed out on a minimum of a further three. And all of those misses were pretty poor.



2+1 plus "one I think" = SEVEN?

Oh you mean the penalties? So let's see, then (I don't remember one against Cardiff)

FOUR GOALS (agreed?), one good save by an England-fringe keeper, one brilliant saving tackle at Watford (should've shot earlier) and one at Bristol where he tried to chip for Hunt.

4 out of 7 used to be called a brilliant conversion rate (the league average is 1 in 4)

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 26 Nov 2010 00:50

Are you really Tabb's height?

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 26 Nov 2010 10:15

New football book confirms that players peak at 27.

It also lists the average age of sides winning the Premiership, close to 27

Fergy's so-called team of kids usually played FOUR kids and the rest were 30-31... average age was still quite high

So expect RFC players to improve drastically as they pass their 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th birthdays and hold it at 27 and 28 and 29
as the speed and power of relative youth is replaced, as it begins to wane, by growing experience.

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 26 Nov 2010 10:16

If Ian Royals post was correct we score about 50% of the time Long bursts into the box.

Pretty good!

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 26 Nov 2010 12:01

Hoop asked what was the mode for age of players in The Actim 100

This is the list for January 1st 2011, more or less the mid-point of the season

The average (mean) age is 27 Years 8 months

The mode (most-common age) is 28

17% of the list is under 24
30% of the list is 30 or older
45% of the list is aged 25-29
51% of the players are 24-29


20 03
22 05
23 09 (ALL MIDFIELDERS!!)
24 06
25 09
26 09
27 08
28 10 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< MODE
29 09

30 04
31 06
32 07
33 08
34 01
34 01
39 01
40 02


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Svlad Cjelli
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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Svlad Cjelli » 26 Nov 2010 12:13

Snowball Hoop asked what was the mode for age of players in The Actim 100

This is the list for January 1st 2011, more or less the mid-point of the season

The average (mean) age is 27 Years 8 months

The mode (most-common age) is 28

17% of the list is under 24
30% of the list is 30 or older
45% of the list is aged 25-29
51% of the players are 24-29


20 03
22 05
23 09 (ALL MIDFIELDERS!!)
24 06
25 09
26 09
27 08
28 10 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< MODE
29 09

30 04
31 06
32 07
33 08
34 01
34 01
39 01
40 02


is this for teh Championship? If so, it's not particularly valid, because it's not a closed system. All the better players will be bought by PL clubs, so what you're measuring here is a combination of young players yet to move to PL clubs and players not good enough for the PL.

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 26 Nov 2010 12:31

Svlad Cjelli


Is this for the Championship? If so, it's not particularly valid, because it's not a closed system. All the better players will be bought by PL clubs, so what you're measuring here is a combination of young players yet to move to PL clubs and players not good enough for the PL.


We PLAY in the Championship.

However, I have figures for the Premiership

The myth that Fergy did it with a side full of kids turns out to be BS He had Schmeichel (31) Parker (31) McClair 31 and Pallister (30) Irwin (29) as well as Keane (24) and Sharpe 24. The team's average age was 25.27 (25.46) and this was RELATIVELY a youthful team.

The average age of sides winning the Premiership is 26.69 years, and according to the book I'm reading, that figure has been steady for 18 years. The five youngest teams to win the title were 25.21; 25.53; 25.69; 25.86. Seven teams have won the title with an average age over 27. Wenger, despite the fact he allegedly plays kids, has won the title three times with sides over 27 28.09; 27.09; 27.28

Mourhino managed a title with a side aged 25.86 but the age has crept up to an average of 27.42. The oldest team was Chelsea last season at 28.73


The YOUNGEST CLUB (based on all it's playing elevens) have been Crystal Palace 25.48 and they have been relegated four times. Watford are next (25.64) relegated both seasons.

Liverpool are the "youngest club" on the pitch (that doesn't get relegated) averaging 25.73

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by BR2 » 26 Nov 2010 12:32

Snowball New football book confirms that players peak at 27.

It also lists the average age of sides winning the Premiership, close to 27

Fergy's so-called team of kids usually played FOUR kids and the rest were 30-31... average age was still quite high

So expect RFC players to improve drastically as they pass their 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th birthdays and hold it at 27 and 28 and 29
as the speed and power of relative youth is replaced, as it begins to wane, by growing experience.


Who wrote the book,you?
So Fergie's good side had NO 27 year-olds playing which rather disproves your theory.

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 26 Nov 2010 12:36

BR2
Who wrote the book,you?



NO

So Fergie's good side had NO 27 year-olds playing which rather disproves your theory.


Been reading books on logic, have we?

A side with loads of experienced players and a golden age of kids (actually a handful playing)... just happens no 27 year-olds that season. Wowser.

And it's not a THEORY it's empirical FACT


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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Hoop Blah » 26 Nov 2010 12:44

Going back to Dirks point about the averages, I think the end results stand up to a reasonable level of scruntiny though.

You will be missing a small chunk of players in their early 20's who've gone on to better things, but I doubt that would effect the outcome too much.

I do think the idea that just because a player is below the age that the majority peak at doesn't mean that player will progress. It certainly doesn't help us with the here and now of winning games in the short term.

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 26 Nov 2010 12:47

Shane Long is now in the Actim Top 100


Rather shoots-down the theory that goals control who gets in, doesn't it?

http://actimindex.files.wordpress.com/2 ... p10065.gif


Shane is 98th


Ian Harte is RFC's highest player.
I'll repeat that.
Ian Harte is RFC's highest player.

61 Ian Harte
62 Jobi McAnuff
75 Adam Federici
83 Jimmy Kebe
98 Shane Long


Mills has just slipped out of the 100

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 26 Nov 2010 12:50

Hoop Blah Going back to Dirks point about the averages, I think the end results stand up to a reasonable level of scruntiny though. You will be missing a small chunk of players in their early 20's who've gone on to better things, but I doubt that would effect the outcome too much. I do think the idea that just because a player is below the age that the majority peak at doesn't mean that player will progress. It certainly doesn't help us with the here and now of winning games in the short term.


Don't dispute that a player MAY falter. They do, often because of attitude, off-the-field shennanigins, drugs/booze, or injury.

But I think it's fair to say that the vast majority of players have to get to 25 before we see the best of them.

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Svlad Cjelli » 26 Nov 2010 13:07

Snowball
Hoop Blah Going back to Dirks point about the averages, I think the end results stand up to a reasonable level of scruntiny though. You will be missing a small chunk of players in their early 20's who've gone on to better things, but I doubt that would effect the outcome too much. I do think the idea that just because a player is below the age that the majority peak at doesn't mean that player will progress. It certainly doesn't help us with the here and now of winning games in the short term.


Don't dispute that a player MAY falter. They do, often because of attitude, off-the-field shennanigins, drugs/booze, or injury.

But I think it's fair to say that the vast majority of players have to get to 25 before we see the best of them.


I'm not trying to attack the point you're making (if fact, I'm not even sure what prosaic point is under detailed analysis right now.

Just pointing out that there's a whole chunk of talented players missing from the Championship who've are the cream that's been skimmed off by the PL, so I suspect that this would bring down teh average age of the best players in teh Championshp, I think there'd be a good many aged 22-23 or so who then get taken out of the reckoning when they move upwards, skewing the figures downwards - and presumably also reducing the "talent-factor" of those at higher ages.


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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 26 Nov 2010 13:12

Svlad Cjelli [

I'm not trying to attack the point you're making (if fact, I'm not even sure what prosaic point is under detailed analysis right now.

Just pointing out that there's a whole chunk of talented players missing from the Championship who've are the cream that's been skimmed off by the PL, so I suspect that this would bring down teh average age of the best players in teh Championshp, I think there'd be a good many aged 22-23 or so who then get taken out of the reckoning when they move upwards, skewing the figures downwards - and presumably also reducing the "talent-factor" of those at higher ages.


By the same logic, the CCC should be pulling 19-20-21-22 year olds from League 1, and L1 should be milking L2.

And if those players step up BUT DON'T GET TO PLAY doesn't that suggest that their new clubs think they need to mature some more first?


Incidentally, which 19-20-21-22 year old players have left CCC clubs to step up (this season)?

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Svlad Cjelli » 26 Nov 2010 13:26

Snowball
Svlad Cjelli [

I'm not trying to attack the point you're making (if fact, I'm not even sure what prosaic point is under detailed analysis right now.

Just pointing out that there's a whole chunk of talented players missing from the Championship who've are the cream that's been skimmed off by the PL, so I suspect that this would bring down teh average age of the best players in teh Championshp, I think there'd be a good many aged 22-23 or so who then get taken out of the reckoning when they move upwards, skewing the figures downwards - and presumably also reducing the "talent-factor" of those at higher ages.


By the same logic, the CCC should be pulling 19-20-21-22 year olds from League 1, and L1 should be milking L2.

And if those players step up BUT DON'T GET TO PLAY doesn't that suggest that their new clubs think they need to mature some more first?


Incidentally, which 19-20-21-22 year old players have left CCC clubs to step up (this season)?


Gylfi is one that immediately springs to mind.

But there's also another factor skewing things - the loan system where PL clubs use teams in lower leagues as their "youth development" clubs. What percentage of your 100 top players are loaned in from PL clubs?

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 26 Nov 2010 13:29

Svlad Cjelli
Gylfi is one that immediately springs to mind.



Takes out a youngster from OUR 100 but adds it to someone else's

But there's also another factor skewing things - the loan system where PL clubs use teams in lower leagues as their "youth development" clubs. What percentage of your 100 top players are loaned in from PL clubs?


But that makes our league YOUNGER THAN IT GENUINELY IS. When we give young Chelsea, Arsenal players a chance to get games we are "compensated" for their lack of maturity/experience by the fact that they have Premiership class.

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Svlad Cjelli » 26 Nov 2010 13:31

Snowball But that makes our league YOUNGER THAN IT GENUINELY IS.


THAT'S WHAT I'M SAYING!

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 26 Nov 2010 13:49

45 Gradel Leeds 183 ON LOAN FROM LEICESTER
37 Hammil Barnsley 192 ON LOAN FROM LIVERPOOL
66 Cywka Derby 170 ON LOAN FROM WIGAN
48 Nolan Scunthorpe 181 ON LOAN FROM PRESTON

11 Sinclair Swansea 229 WAS A LOANEE, BUT NOW SIGNED?
03 Taarabt QPR 285 WAS A LOANEE, BUT NOW SIGNED
21 Dyer Swansea 212 Normal Signed Player, was loanee

68 O'Connor Scunthorpe 169 Normal Signed Player
32 Adomah Bristol 197 Normal Signed Player
20 Brayford Derby 212 Normal Signed Player
15 McGugan Forest 225 Normal Signed Player
35 Ephraim QPR 192 Normal Signed Player
92 Treacy Preston 158 Normal Signed Player
04 Howson Leeds 262 Academy Player
22 King Leicester 210 Academy Player
25 T Smith Ipswich 207 Academy Playaer
88 K Smith Norwich 159 Academy Player (discovered playing Sunday football!)
09 Sordell Watford 234 Academy

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Snowball » 26 Nov 2010 13:50

But then Griffin last season, Zurab this adds 796 years to the average

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Re: Long - Time to go.

by Wycombe Royal » 26 Nov 2010 14:22

Gradel, Hammill & Cywka are NOT on loan.

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