How Many Points after 46 Games?

[Snowball]

Played 14 W3 D7 L4 17F-15A

16 Points from 14 games. Is that so terrible?

4-0 Burnley
2-1 Burnley
2-1 Leicester
1-1 Forest
1-1 Watford
1-1 Cardiff
2-2 Cardiff
3-3 Norwich
0-0 Leeds
0-0 Millwall
0-1 QPR
0-1 Swansea
0-1 Swansea
1-3 QPR

Add in the 12th club (Hull) and it's P16 W3 D9 L4 19-17 = 18 Points from 16 games

add in the next P17 W4 D09 L4 22-17 = 21 Points from 17 Games (Top 12 excluding RFC) W Barnsley
and in the next P18 W5 D09 L4 23-17 = 24 Points from 18 Games (Top 13 excluding RFC) W Ipswich
add in the next P20 W7 D09 L4 30-20 = 30 Points from 20 Games (Top 14 excluding RFC) WW Doncaster
add in the next P21 W7 D10 L4 33-20 = 33 Points from 21 Games (Top 15 excluding RFC) D Coventry
add in the next P22 W9 D09 L4 35-21 = 36 Points from 22 Games (Top 16 excluding RFC) W Derby

[Arch]

Here's our ten-game form over the season so far. To keep from having to type too much, the nth number in the sequence is the points accrued in the ten games up to and including the (n + 9)th game (so the first is points in the first ten games, etc.):

16-16-15-17-17-14-14-15-13-11-11-14-17-15-12-15-17-17-17-16

If we reproduce our best form of the season (1.7 ppg) over the remaining games, we'll end up with 71 points.

[Snowball]

Here's our ten-game form over the season so far. To keep from having to type too much, the nth number in the sequence is the points accrued in the ten games up to and including the (n + 9)th game (so the first is points in the first ten games, etc.):

16-16-15-17-17-14-14-15-13-11-11-14-17-15-12-15-17-17-17-16

If we reproduce our best form of the season (1.7 ppg) over the remaining games, we'll end up with 71 points.

and once Norwich is out of the way the games do look easier.

We have Sheffield Utd twice, for instance. (Yeah, I know...)

[peterroyal76]

No midweek games=pointless threads!

[Snowball]

26 say 69 points or better, roughly 20 saying 70 points or better

this v 12 saying "fail"

If that's right we are still in with a chance of the POs

[Super Royals]

At Home... W7 D1 L0
Away.... W4 D2 L3

78 Points and 5th place

[Snowball]

Newbury Weekly news today says the average required over the last 10 years has been 73.3 points, so I guess we should say 74

32 from 17. NO problem. Lose at Norwich then 2 ppg for the rest of the season. Easy innit?

[loyalroyal4life]

72 points

[RAF Royal]

Mid-60s. Two points per game perfectly achievable ... IF you are on a good run. Not sure we have been at any stage all season - every time I get to the stage where I think that we should win a match, we contrive to lose. Don't mean to be negative, but nothing to suggest we are about to hit 92-point-season form (2 per game).

High-60s = good run in and optimism for August.
Low-60s = a little disappointing.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Not to be a buzzkill when I st8 and spell out the obvious, but points really don't matter except in context

Let's suppose that after 43 league matches, our guys --already well safe from releg8ion-- are elimin8ed from contention for the play-offs while standing on 60 points

What difference would it make if we were to finish out

0-0-3 = 60 pts
0-1-2 = 61 pts
0-2-1 = 62 pts
0-3-0 = 63 pts
1-0-2 = 63 pts
1-1-1 = 64 pts
1-2-0 = 65 pts
2-0-1 = 66 pts
2-1-0 = 67 pts
3-0-0 = 69 pts



Indeed, if our guys were to lock up fifth place in the 45th game --with no chance of improving upon it or backsliding in the final regular league match-- then there'd be no point whatsoever in going all-out for victory in Match #46, risking injury to key men, sendings-off, accumul8ed bookings and so on

Final placement is also relevant only in context, and for what are in essence the same reasons (note, in the above worksheet, that it stands to reason that we're looking at a pretty broad range of final table placements in addition to points tally)

The only questions the answers to which matter are:

--Will we finish top or as runners-up?
--If not, will we finish between third and sixth?
--If not, will we finish seventh or lower?
--If so, will we finish twenty-first or better?

Specific placement and final points tallies are answers to trivia questions after the fact (and of course one can guess and wager before the fact), and it isn't necessarily true that they tell us much about a given squad's season until you pick 'em apart and put 'em in context

[Arch]

Updated

Here's our ten-game form over the season so far. To keep from having to type too much, the nth number in the sequence is the points accrued in the ten games up to and including the (n + 9)th game (so the first is points in the first ten games, etc.):

16-16-15-17-17-14-14-15-13-11-11-14-17-15-12-15-17-17-17-16-15

If we reproduce our best form of the season (1.7 ppg) over the remaining games, we'll end up with 69 points.

[SLAMMED]

I believe our inability to gain points when we play the teams above us in the league is what will cost us.

Well aren't you a fucking genius...

[Mr Angry]

We simply aren't good enough to go up, and the reason is simple; we don't have enough quality in the striking department to score enough goals to win enough games; people can quote as many statistics to say white is black, and black is white but the simple fact that 24 points out of a possible 45 at home, and a total of 8 clean sheets all season (and only 1 since Christmas), is simply not good enough for a side to win promotion.

Total points? Between 58 and 63.

Final position? Between 12th and 8th.

[PEARCEY]

We simply aren't good enough to go up, and the reason is simple; we don't have enough quality in the striking department to score enough goals to win enough games; people can quote as many statistics to say white is black, and black is white but the simple fact that 24 points out of a possible 45 at home, and a total of 8 clean sheets all season (and only 1 since Christmas), is simply not good enough for a side to win promotion.

Total points? Between 58 and 63.

Final position? Between 12th and 8th.

Its more thamn the quality in the striking department. We have no creativity in central midfield and have gifted some dreadful goals this season. We also desperately lack pace in our back four.

[Ian Royal]

It's the same problem we've had since Rodgers took over. We have small weaknesses everywhere and half a squad ideal for playing 4-2-3-1 and half a squad ideal for playing 4-4-2. That's why we get some excellent results and performances in and amongst a string of not quite good enough ones. We simply don't have a balanced team that works in either formation all over the pitch.

But we do have a lot of quality and potential. McDermott's big test is now team building. Does he know how to do it successfully and coherantly?

[Snowball]

We are on 42 points from 29 games. 17 Games to go

There are a lot of very winnable games. I feel optimistic

Home I can see W6 D2 or better. Away I can see W3 D3 L3 or better = 72 points, [b]but probably more even if we lose at Norwich, Leeds, and Forest[/b]. I don't think we will lose all three games, so I'm going for 73-74 points.

HOME

Watford
Millwall
Middlesboro
Preston
Portsmouth
Leicester
Sheffield United
Derby

Away

Norwich
Sheffield United
Crystal Palace
Ipswich
Barnsley
Forest
Scunthorpe
Leeds
Coventry

[andrew1957]

Only 72-74 points predicted Snowball. You pessimist!

[andrew1957]

Basically we need two points a game over the last 17 games. That would be 34 plus 42 equals 76. On current projections it might take this many points to make the play offs this year - although with teams above us having to play each other this target may drop.

Last season we achieved 40 points from the last 20 games - so 2 points a game is possible. There are plenty of winnable games to come before the end of the season.

One thing for sure is that it is likely to go to the wire with 11-12 teams in contention for the top 6.

Not a bad shout either! Still think 76 or better is on the cards.

[Mr Angry]

We simply aren't good enough to go up, and the reason is simple; we don't have enough quality in the striking department to score enough goals to win enough games; people can quote as many statistics to say white is black, and black is white but the simple fact that 24 points out of a possible 45 at home, and a total of 8 clean sheets all season (and only 1 since Christmas), is simply not good enough for a side to win promotion.

Total points? Between 58 and 63.

Final position? Between 12th and 8th.

Who posted this shiite!!!!!

[andrew1957]

We simply aren't good enough to go up, and the reason is simple; we don't have enough quality in the striking department to score enough goals to win enough games; people can quote as many statistics to say white is black, and black is white but the simple fact that 24 points out of a possible 45 at home, and a total of 8 clean sheets all season (and only 1 since Christmas), is simply not good enough for a side to win promotion.

Total points? Between 58 and 63.

Final position? Between 12th and 8th.

Who posted this shiite!!!!!

And we will never find a striker capable of scoring 20 league goals in a season.