Final 12 Games

[Wimb]

So it's crunch time. 12 games to go and we sit 10th with 48 points, and at our current pace good enough for 65 points this year, which would be a 2 point improvement on last season.

Realistically we're going to need at least 75 points or so to make the playoffs which is another 9 wins out of the last 12 games. Does anyone think there's a chance with this remaining fixture list? I'll have a stab....

Middlesbrough H W 2-1
Ipswich Town A L 0-2
Preston H W 4-0
Barnsley A D 2-2
Portsmouth H W 2-1
Nottm Forest A L 1-3
Scunthorpe A W 2-1
Leicester City H D 1-1
Leeds United A L 1-3
Sheffield Utd H W 2-0
Coventry City A D 1-1
Derby County H W 3-0

To me that's 21 points and 69 for the season, meaning we'd need Leeds to pick up just 5 wins from their last 12 to even have a chance, and count on the other teams around us to do the same. It's not going to happen as far as I'm concerned. However, sneak another point or 2 in there and get above 70 and I think we can be happy with the season overall.

Forest and Leeds are pretty much write offs in terms of a win. We haven't beaten a top team away since arguably Birmingham over 2 years ago and even getting a point looks very hard to come by. Ipswich are inconsistent so maybe we pull off the win but I'm doubting it. The only real hope is turning some of those draws into wins against teams like Leicester, Coventry and Barnsley but it only takes us slipping up in 1 or 2 of those games to totally put out the fire.

[roadrunner]

Our inconsistent trend will continue and we will pick up around 16 points:

4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats.

Finish on 60 points, well off the pace for the play-offs.

[rhroyal]

Realistically we need at least 75 points? If we make 75 points and don't make the play-offs I'll be dumbfounded on two counts. Firstly that we made 75 points; secondly that we missed out on the play-offs with 75 points. Teams have sneaked into 6th on 69 before I believe. Anything from 69-74 and we have a decent chance based upon the quality of teams around us.

I think we'll fall short this season but I'm sure that we can finish strongly as they look like more winnable fixtures. All the draws have cost us this season.

[Snowball]

W 3-0 H Middlesbrough (If we can't win, then we deserve nothing)
D 1-1 A Ipswich Town (could see us tonked there, tho)
W 2-0 H Preston (Surely?)
W 1-0 A Barnsley (we might "fail" and only draw 1-1)
D 1-1 H Portsmouth (They are on a run of form, but we COULD win)
L 0-2 A Nottm Forest (Hard to see anything but a defeat but they have stuttered lately)
W 2-0 A Scunthorpe (Away, so no guarantees, but they owe us)
W 1-0 H Leicester (Hard to call. We can't afford a defeat, that's for sure)
D 2-2 A Leeds United (I have a feeling Leeds will be 8/9th by then and we could win it)
W 5-0 H Sheffield (They are going down and we usually get a 5-0 every season)
W 2-0 A Coventry (Fancy us, but can imagine 0-0, too)
W 4-0 H Derby (Savage cameo in his last game but have to fancy a good win)



W9 D3 L1 25-6 (78 Points -Uber-Optimist, winning at Leeds)

W8 D3 L1 24-6 (75 Points - Optimistic, draw at Leeds - results as bold above, definitely possible)

W6 D4 L2 21-8 (70 Points - Slightly Pessimistic -I genuinely feel we'll beat this total)


I wonder how the Everton game will affect things?

If we were to get a drubbing there (quite possible) it could affect confidence.

If we were to get a draw and a replay we might be distracted by our "cup run". How often to cup sides lose league form!

Ditto an unlikely WIN on Merseyside.

[weybridgewanderer]

look like winable fixtures, just like a fe weeks ago sheffield and palace away were winable?

we can't keep clean sheets

untill that changes we will continue to draw more than we win

[weybridgewanderer]

Middlesbrough H D
Ipswich Town A D
Preston H W
Barnsley A L
Portsmouth H D
Nottm Forest A L
Scunthorpe A D
Leicester City H L
Leeds United A D
Sheffield Utd H W
Coventry City A D
Derby County H W

3 wins, 3 defeats and 6 draws, pretty consistent with our performance over the course of the season

[Royal With Cheese]

We'll win a few, lose a few and probably draw a few.


*nosnowballo*

[SLAMMED]

Edit.

[Stranded]

We're about to go on a little run, get everyone's hopes up and fall away in the last 4 games to finish 9th.

[SLAMMED]

Middlesbrough H------W
Ipswich Town A--------D
Preston H--------------W
Barnsley A--------------W
Portsmouth H----------D
Nottm Forest A--------L
Scunthorpe A----------W
Leicester City H-------D
Leeds United A--------L
Sheffield Utd H--------W
Coventry City A--------D
Derby County H--------W

22 points from the last 12 would be more than satisfactory.

[weybridgewanderer]

W 3-0 H Middlesbrough (If we can't win, then we deserve nothing)
D 1-1 A Ipswich Town (could see us tonked there, tho)
W 2-0 H Preston (Surely?)
W 1-0 A Barnsley (we might "fail" and only draw 1-1)
D 1-1 H Portsmouth (They are on a run of form, but we COULD win)
L 0-2 A Nottm Forest (Hard to see anything but a defeat but they have stuttered lately)
W 2-0 A Scunthorpe (Away, so no guarantees, but they owe us)
W 1-0 H Leicester (Hard to call. We can't afford a defeat, that's for sure)
D 2-2 A Leeds United (I have a feeling Leeds will be 8/9th by then and we could win it)
W 5-0 H Sheffield (They are going down and we usually get a 5-0 every season)
W 2-0 A Coventry (Fancy us, but can imagine 0-0, too)
W 4-0 H Derby (Savage cameo in his last game but have to fancy a good win)

We kept 8 clean sheets in the league all season so far. You have 8 clean sheets out of 12?

Were you there yesterday?

We have gifted goals all season. Is that going to miraculously stop now?

[Snowball]

We kept 8 clean sheets in the league all season so far. You have 8 clean sheets out of 12?


YES. Preston, Barnsley, Sheffield, Derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, why not and the other two games are home games and Boro aren't exactly ripping up trees.

But the scores are hardly the point, are they? 21-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2 who cares? We have a decent GD already and if we accrue the points we'll have a better GD, and it's actually better to win 4-3 the 1-0 because equal GDs go to total goals scored.





We have gifted goals all season. Is that going to miraculously stop now?

Why not? Did we expect the Millwall game, the fire, the extra tempo? How often has this side come from 2 goals down against 11 men? How long have Long-Hunt been on fire as a pairing (14 games)? How many league games has Elwood played undefeated (14)?

[SLAMMED]

How long have Long-Hunt been on fire as a pairing (14 games)?

2

[Snowball]

Given that Long-Hunt as individuals and as a pair are really clicking
but they have done so against a lot of the top sides and better sides
QPR (2), Norwich, Hull (2), Watford, Cardiff, Swansea, Millwall

Why should we not expect them to at least equal that form against weaker sides?

They could well do BETTER

(a) because the opposition is weaker
(b) Because goals breeds confidence


Given that Elwood is now 14 games undefeated and still improving
and the team is gaining confidence from that
Why should we not expect him and the team to at least equal that form against weaker sides?

They could well do better

(a) because the opposition is weaker
(b) Because an undefeated run breeds confidence.

Frankly I would be shocked rigid to get less than 1.5 ppg for the rest of the season. I think 2 ppg is well within our grasp

[brendywendy]

w(FAC)
W
W
W
w(FACQF)
W
W
W
W
w(FACSF)
W
W
W
W
W
w(FACF)
W(POSF)
W(POF)

[Snowball]

How long have Long-Hunt been on fire as a pairing (14 games)?

2

Can't agree with that. I've been posting for at least 4 months saying they are the best partnership. They have started 14 games together and scored 18 goals between them. A goal each and an assist each in this last game, virtually the same in the previous game

There record when they've started together is excellent

XX Fail 0-1 Bristol
XX Hunt
XX Hunt & Long
XX Hunt
XX Fail 0-0 Leeds
XX Fail 0-0 Coventry
XX Long 2
XX Long 2, Hunt
XX Fail (Church on for Hunt, scores)
XX Long 2
XX Long
XX Long
XX Hunt
XX Long, Hunt
XX Long, Hunt

[muddyfeet]

Ipswich Town A D
Preston H W
Barnsley A W
Portsmouth H L
Nottm Forest A L
Scunthorpe A W
Leicester City H L
Leeds United A L
Sheffield Utd H W
Coventry City A W
Derby County H W

19 points 67 points 8th place

[Snowball]

This Season

Their record when they've started together is excellent. They've only lost once (their first game)

The three times RFC failed to score were early in the partnership (this season)
at Bristol (Game 1) and the two 0-0 home draws (Leeds-Coventry Games 5+6)

W6 D8 L1 24-15 26 Points from 15 Games , 18 of the 24 goals coming from them

1.733 points per game equating to an 80 point season


In the last nine games where Long-Hunt started together, the pair has netted 14 times, with Church (on for Hunt) also scoring

[Ian Royal]

Middlesbrough (H) - W 3-1
Ipswich Town (A) - L 0-2
Preston (H) - D 1-1
Barnsley (A) - W 1-0
Portsmouth (H) - D 2-2
Nottm Forest (A) - D 0-0
Scunthorpe (A) - D 1-1
Leicester City (H) - L 3-1
Leeds United (A) - W 2-1
Sheffield Utd (H) - W 1-0
Coventry City (A) - L 2-1
Derby County (H) - D 0-0

[roadrunner]

w(FAC)
W
W
W
w(FACQF)
W
W
W
W
w(FACSF)
W
W
W
W
W
w(FACF)
W(POSF)
W(POF)

(HoF)