Final 12 Games

[The Prisoner]

We've drawn too many games and left ourselves too much to do. Period.

It's not impossible, and I think we'll close the gap, but we don't just need to overhaul sixth, we need to outperform the other three teams in 7th-9th as well, and that's what makes me think we'll give it a good go, but fall short by around 4-5 points.

[Snowball]

Forest have drawn 14 and are 5th. Strange, that.

[weybridgewanderer]

they just lost less than us

i think its easier to convert draws into wins than to convert losses into wins

so my view is we have drawn too many

[RobRoyal]

Forest have drawn 14 and are 5th. Strange, that.

Right. And in theory you could draw more than 30 games and get into the playoffs, but it wouldn't happen. If you finished a point off 6th with W13 D32 L1 would it be sensible to say that you lost too many games to go up?

Of course it's not impossible to draw as many games as we have and be promoted, but that doesn't make it insensible to identify those lost points as the principle reason we won't make it.

And accordingly Forest fans will be saying they've drawn too many to get auto promotion.

[Mr Angry]

Before kick off on Saturday: Gap to 6th = 6 points; games to play = 12.

After final whistle on Sat: Gap to 6th = 6 points; games to play = 11.

ipso facto, we are FURTHER away from a play-off spot than we were before a thumping 5-2 win.

The only team to drop points between 6th and 11th were Leicester (who lost to a very late goal away at QPR); as has been said, Burnley have 2 games in hand on everyone else (why is that?? Anyone??) whilst Pompey have just won 6 on the trot (with 6 clean sheets - only 2 less than us all League season).

As has been said for weeks, its not just about us now; basically its out of our hands. Yes, we can average 2 ppg, but if all the other teams around us do the same, (and pretty well all are showing similar if not better form than us) we stand still.

Another way of looking at it is that it isn't about our ppg, but our ppg relative to those around us.... for example, to get past Leeds, from now on we need to average more than 0.5 points per game more than them; if we were to lose to them at their place, that equation goes up to more than 0.9 ppg more than them (excluding gd).

Incidentally, so far only 3 teams (Preston, Sheff Utd & Palace)are now mathematically unable to win the Championship.

The way I'm looking at is this; if we can maintain the form we have shown in the last 2 or 3 games, then it will make the end of the season exciting and fun and entertaining (which hasn't been the case for a lot of the season so far imho) and we will end the season in good heart ready for, if the correct player investment is made, a genuine challenge next season, with the added bonus of an exciting cup run thrown into the mix for good measure.

[Wimb]

Pompy's form makes my blood boil....

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Yeah dudnat suck f'realz

Anyway absent a white hot showing away from home, 8W 7D 3L @ Fortress Madejski ain't ever gon' get the job done, folks

[Snowball]

Forest have drawn 14 and are 5th. Strange, that.

Right. And in theory you could draw more than 30 games and get into the playoffs, but it wouldn't happen. If you finished a point off 6th with W13 D32 L1 would it be sensible to say that you lost too many games to go up?

Of course it's not impossible to draw as many games as we have and be promoted, but that doesn't make it insensible to identify those lost points as the principle reason we won't make it.

And accordingly Forest fans will be saying they've drawn too many to get auto promotion.

So you mean "Drawing 14 means you miss automatic promotion, but it's fine for 4th/5th? But drawing just one more game means you finish 7th-10th?"

[Snowball]

Before kick off on Saturday: Gap to 6th = 6 points; games to play = 12.

After final whistle on Sat: Gap to 6th = 6 points; games to play = 11.

ipso facto, we are FURTHER away from a play-off spot than we were before a thumping 5-2 win.

Errrr, no we are the SAME relative to Leeds but have improved our chances of catching

3 Points Gained on Swansea (who lost)
3 Points Gained on Cardiff (who lost)
3 Points Gained on Leicester (who lost)
1 Point Gained on Norwich (who drew)

GD Gained on Burnley, Hull, QPR

In fact we gained on 8 of the 9 clubs above us.


All that's changed is we have one game less to do the business in.

The only team to drop points between 6th and 11th were Leicester (who lost to a very late goal away at QPR)

They did LOSE yeah? just checking in case late goals don't count or something?
Didn't we lose in the 94th minute at Norwich and drop 2 poinyts in the 96th minute at Cardiff?

Burnley have 2 games in hand on everyone else

Yes, and they will probably make the POs. BUT they have a lot of the top 9 to play and could do us big favours

Pompey have just won 6 on the trot (with 6 clean sheets)

Pompey have to play
Norwich (H) Swansea (H)
Leicester (A), Reading (A), Cardiff (A), Burnley, (A) (and a resurgent Bristol away)

If they manage to make the POs it will be miraculous.

A Bristol
H Middlesbrough
A Leicester
A Reading
H Preston
H Coventry
A Cardiff
H Swansea
A Burnley
H Norwich
A Scunthorpe

As has been said for weeks, its not just about us now; basically its out of our hands. Yes, we can average 2 ppg, but if all the other teams around us do the same, (and pretty well all are showing similar if not better form than us) we stand still.

I've said that our 2 ppg will get us to 73 and this might well not be enough

However, all the sides above us can't REALISTICALLY get 2 ppg from now until the end of the season
especially as many of them have to play each other.

Another way of looking at it is that it isn't about our ppg, but our ppg relative to those around us.... for example, to get past Leeds, from now on we need to average more than 0.5 points per game more than them; if we were to lose to them at their place, that equation goes up to more than 0.9 ppg more than them (excluding gd).

If we lose at Leeds we are doomed. Yet if we WIN 0-1 there we are effectively just 3 points behind them with ten games to go and a much better GD 16 v 9

That is just one day when they lose and we win. Catching Leeds could easily happen. Burnley and Hull are bigger worries as we can do nothing against either

Fixtures


Preston v Leeds (we'll see tomorrow night but all-of-a-sudden Preston are harder to beat)
Leeds v Ipswich (Tough)
Sheff Utd v Leeds (Should be a comfortable 0-2 but it's a Yorkshire Derby)
Leeds v Nott'm Forest HARD, good result for us)
Millwall v Leeds VERY hard
Derby v Leeds
Leeds v Watford Not a kick in
Leeds v Reading The big one if our run is still going. IF it is I fancy a win there
Crystal Palace
Leeds v Burnley Another tough game. Any result is good for us
QPR v Leeds Tough finish

[Mr Angry]

If the team in 6th (the last play off spot) were 6 points ahead of us before the last game, and after the last game, the team in 6th are STILL 6 points ahead of us with one game fewer to play, that means, therefore, that the gap between us and 6th in your favorite currency - ppg - has just increased; from exactly 0.5ppg to 0.55ppg, or an increase of 10%. How is that staying the same??

Anyone would think that the stats meister was being a little selective in how he makes his pronouncements!

[RobRoyal]

Forest have drawn 14 and are 5th. Strange, that.

Right. And in theory you could draw more than 30 games and get into the playoffs, but it wouldn't happen. If you finished a point off 6th with W13 D32 L1 would it be sensible to say that you lost too many games to go up?

Of course it's not impossible to draw as many games as we have and be promoted, but that doesn't make it insensible to identify those lost points as the principle reason we won't make it.

And accordingly Forest fans will be saying they've drawn too many to get auto promotion.

So you mean "Drawing 14 means you miss automatic promotion, but it's fine for 4th/5th? But drawing just one more game means you finish 7th-10th?"

<snowball mode on>

YOU are obviously TOO STUPID to understand my point. Just for you, since you CAN'T READ, I'll try to make it SIMPLE:

<snowball mode off>

I'm saying that naturally you will identify the biggest cause of dropped points as "the reason" you failed (or will fail) to achieve the goal in question. It would be pretty absurd for a Reading fan to say that we've lost too many games to make the playoffs, because losing 8 games is (I'm guessing) no worse than average for a playoff team. Few teams, however, make the playoffs drawing 15 of their first 35. I don't think anyone on here is genuinely saying that there is a maximum number of draws you can get into the playoffs with, that's obviously stupid as you've pointed out with respect to Forest. But if you're going to identify where you're most notably losing points, ours is draws against middling sides, and a failure to win enough (i.e. any) against the top of the table sides.

Forest are an unusual case because they've managed to only lose 5 games. Now if they ask why they're not going to get automatic promotion, they will understandably also look at those drawn games as the thing holding them back from a higher total, rather than their 5 losses which is very respectable for any side seeking auto promotion.

I know the points can come from anywhere, but it's hardly an insensible way of looking at your team's performance.

[Ian Royal]

Forest have drawn 14 and are 5th. Strange, that.

Right. And in theory you could draw more than 30 games and get into the playoffs, but it wouldn't happen. If you finished a point off 6th with W13 D32 L1 would it be sensible to say that you lost too many games to go up?

Of course it's not impossible to draw as many games as we have and be promoted, but that doesn't make it insensible to identify those lost points as the principle reason we won't make it.

And accordingly Forest fans will be saying they've drawn too many to get auto promotion.

Typical to pick the one exception ignore all other factors involved and pretend it invalidates the point.

[Snowball]

If the team in 6th (the last play off spot) were 6 points ahead of us before the last game, and after the last game, the team in 6th are STILL 6 points ahead of us with one game fewer to play, that means, therefore, that the gap between us and 6th in your favorite currency - ppg - has just increased; from exactly 0.5ppg to 0.55ppg, or an increase of 10%. How is that staying the same??

Anyone would think that the stats meister was being a little selective in how he makes his pronouncements!

The GAP is the same. Of course the ppg required has increased RELATIVE TO LEEDS

But the required ppg relative to Leicester, Swansea, Cardiff DECREASED substantially.

Prior to Saturday's results we needed the following "extra points per game" to catch the others

19 from 12 1.58 ppg
14 from 12 1.17
13 from 12 1.08
11 from 12 0.92
11 from 12 0.92
06 from 12 0.50
02 from 12 0.17
01 from 12 0.08
04 from 12 0.33

Now we need... (second column)

1.58 1.73 QPR RIDICULOUSLY HOPELESS (WE WON'T WIN THE LEAGUE)
1.17 1.00 Swansea DEFINITELY BETTER
1.08 0.91 Cardiff DEFINITELY BETTER
0.92 0.82 Norwich DEFINITELY BETTER
0.92 0.73 Forest SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER
0.50 0.55 Leeds VIRTUALLY the same
0.17 0.18 Burnley VIRTUALLY the same
0.08 0.09 Hull VIRTUALLY the same a single point over 11 games
0.33 0.09 Leicester WAY BETTER

[Mr Angry]

Want to double check your Burnley calculation?

(hint - games left to play........)



Apart from that, I take on board the fact that the teams 2nd - 5th dropped points on us on Saturday, but as I said, for the purposes of this exercise, we have to look at the team in 6th, as thats the last PO spot. I just feel anything around the 1.00ppg mark is beyond us as it relies far too much on other teams failing as well as us constantly winning. Even a ppg of between 0.5 and 1.00 is highly improbably simply due to the small number of games left to make up the ground.

It would genuinely be interesting to keep that list updated (once the Burnley recalculation has been done) as ppg is a reasonable clear and simple measurement of the task in hand.

[Snowball]

Want to double check your Burnley calculation?

(hint - games left to play........)

NOPE. CURRENTLY we have to gain what I said we have to gain. IF they gain points from
their two games in hand THEN the calculation changes.

When we play Man City instead of Preston everyone will say, "You can't presume you'll get points from the Preston game, points are better than games-in-hand."

Apart from that, I take on board the fact that the teams 2nd - 5th dropped points on us on Saturday, but as I said, for the purposes of this exercise, we have to look at the team in 6th, as thats the last PO spot. I just feel anything around the 1.00ppg mark is beyond us as it relies far too much on other teams failing as well as us constantly winning. Even a ppg of between 0.5 and 1.00 is highly improbably simply due to the small number of games left to make up the ground.

It would genuinely be interesting to keep that list updated (once the Burnley recalculation has been done) as ppg is a reasonable clear and simple measurement of the task in hand.

It could be 90% "over" by ten o'clock tonight, if we lose at Ipswich,
but 2-3 others lose and we win (not that likely, I grant you) and
it is starting to look very different.

I have a sneaky feeling that TWO clubs currently in the top six are going to miss out. It might even be three.

I think Burnley will make it, and probably Hull too.

I don't see us making sixth or fifth or fourth, but two back-to-back wins
for any club in the top ten, or two defeats on the trot, can transform
the picture.

[leww_rfc]

Really hope I'm wrong about tonight.

[Mr Angry]

NOPE. CURRENTLY we have to gain what I said we have to gain. IF they gain points from
their two games in hand THEN the calculation changes.

When we play Man City instead of Preston everyone will say, "You can't presume you'll get points from the Preston game, points are better than games-in-hand."



It could be 90% "over" by ten o'clock tonight, if we lose at Ipswich,
but 2-3 others lose and we win (not that likely, I grant you) and
it is starting to look very different.

I have a sneaky feeling that TWO clubs currently in the top six are going to miss out. It might even be three.

I think Burnley will make it, and probably Hull too.

I don't see us making sixth or fifth or fourth, but two back-to-back wins
for any club in the top ten, or two defeats on the trot, can transform
the picture.

Fair enough re: position on Burnley; the calculation will change IF they get the points from those games.

As for the supposition about 2 back to back wins; yep - agree with that. Makes it VERY exciting doesn't it?

[Snowball]

Really hope I'm wrong about tonight.

Confess, I have no good thoughts. Wouldn't let myself post on predictions thread.

[Snowball]

Prior to Saturday's results we needed the following "extra points per game" to catch the others

19 from 12 1.58 ppg
14 from 12 1.17
13 from 12 1.08
11 from 12 0.92
11 from 12 0.92
06 from 12 0.50
02 from 12 0.17
01 from 12 0.08
04 from 12 0.33

Now we need... (second column)

1.58 1.73 QPR RIDICULOUSLY HOPELESS (WE WON'T WIN THE LEAGUE)
1.17 1.00 Swansea DEFINITELY BETTER
1.08 0.91 Cardiff DEFINITELY BETTER
0.92 0.82 Norwich DEFINITELY BETTER
0.92 0.73 Forest SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER
0.50 0.55 Leeds VIRTUALLY the same
0.17 0.18 Burnley VIRTUALLY the same
0.08 0.09 Hull VIRTUALLY the same a single point over 11 games
0.33 0.09 Leicester WAY BETTER

And NOW we need... (Third Column)


1.58 1.73 1.60 QPR Gained Three Points
1.17 1.00 0.90 Swansea Gained Four Points
1.08 0.91 0.70 Cardiff Gained Six Points
0.92 0.82 0.90 Norwich Gained 1 Point
0.92 0.73 0.50 Forest Gained Six Points
0.50 0.55 0.60 Leeds Kept Pace With Improved GD by 1
0.17 0.18 0.20 Burnley Kept Pace With Improved GD by 2

0.08 0.09 0.00 Hull Caught and PASSED
0.33 0.09 0.00 Leicester Caught and PASSED

[Mr Angry]

Well, tonight has thrown a very positive spanner in the works; ppg for 6th place back down to 0.5 again, (or, if you are super optimisitic, down to 0.9 for 2nd spot!!) and gains on all in terms of ppg except Burnley, Leeds & Norwich. Forest, with 2 straight defeats, definitely on a wobble, and Pompey's magnificent run of form comes to a halt.

Just a shame that - a. we were unable to fail to prevent late goals v Cardiff, QPR and Norwich last month; (those 3 goals cost us 5 points) & b. we don't have 15 games left rather than 10.

However, 2 HUGE 6 pointers in those last 10 games - Leeds & Forest; if we WERE to win those games.........................

At the moment its looking like:

1. QPR
2. Swansea
3. Norwich
4. Burnley
5. Leeds
6. A N Other (perm 1 out of us, Forest, Cardiff, Hull & Leicester)