Long - time for a change?

[Royal Rother]

Why are you so sure he'll be off soon?

1. He likes it here.
2. He's still young.
3. He's improving all the time.
4. He's scoring for fun.
5. He's the main man now.

I think he'll stay for at least another season and enjoy his new stature. If budget dictates that we have to offload a couple of other players to make him the highest paid player here then I suspect that is what will be done.

[Snowball]

Updated Comparison with Kevin Doyle

Championship Years 2005-06 Onwards

3,151 Minutes 19 Goals = 166 Minutes per Goal LONG (2010-11)
7,915 Minutes 41 Goals = 193 Minutes per Goal LONG (Career)
6,480 Minutes 36 Goals = 190 Minutes per Goal DOYLE


Premiership Games Only

10,337 Minutes 31 Goals = 333 Minutes per Goal DOYLE (RFC & Wolves)
01,605 Minutes 05 Goals = 321 Minutes per Goal LONG (for RFC)
05,563 Minutes 19 Goals = 293 Minutes per Goal DOYLE (for RFC)


All RFC Games including Premiership

12,403 Minutes 55 Goals = 226 Minutes per Goal DOYLE
10,036 Minutes 48 Goals = 209 Minutes per Goal LONG





All Senior UK Games (Adding Doyle at Wolves)

17,850 Minutes 68 Goals = 263 Minutes per Goal DOYLE
10,036 Minutes 48 Goals = 209 Minutes per Goal LONG

[Snowball]

It's strange though because despite his success, his fantastic form and what not, I still have a hard time considering him as a 'Reading legend' or imagine I'll be sat here in 5 years talking about him in the same way as Kitson, Doyle, Quinn, Cureton, Butler, Forster etc.

Maybe because it's taken 6 years for him to hit these heights, or because the bulk of his goals have come during a rebuilding phase but for some reason he's not creeping into my mind as one of our best ever strikers.

The only comparison I can think of is Archie, in that he scored 20 goals in a season once and got 10 or so a couple of other times but was never really super consistent or dominant over his entire career here.

Not saying that Long doesn't deserve to be up there and maybe it's just my previous reservations clouding my mind coupled with a knowledge that he'll probably be off soon but that's just how I feel.

This is why, WIMB

Long's first 3 seasons

0,565 05 (10) 4 Goals
1,110 11 (12) 4 Goals
1,011 10 (21) 3 Goals

That's 26 Starts (about 50% cup in "reserve sides") and 43 sub appearances in THREE YEARS 2,686 Minutes. Less than 900 minutes or the equivalent of ten full games per annum, yet he got 4-4-3 goals

This season alone he has played 3,151 Minutes, 465 Minutes, 5 games more


Whereas the NEXT 3 seasons

1,953 Minutes 15 (26) for 09 Goals ("Half a Season")
2,246 Minutes 24 (12) for 09 Goals (Half a Season)
3,151 Minutes 37 (01) for 19 Goals so far


If you concatenate those first 3 "seasons" into one... How does it look?

2,686 Minutes 26 (43) for 11 Goals
1,953 Minutes 15 (26) for 09 Goals ("Half a Season")
2,246 Minutes 24 (12) for 09 Goals (Half a Season)
3,151 Minutes 37 (01) for 19 Goals so far

Remember Doyle had 3,660 Minutes in his first season to get his 18 goals, 509 MORE than Long has had this season and Long is already a goal ahead.

In his other Championship season he played 3,480 Minutes for his 18. 329 minutes more for one goal less.

Long has played 2,367 minutes LESS than Doyle for RFC (26.3 Games) and he's within 7 goals of Doyle with a very, very good chance of getting to 55 goals in that time.

Basically, Long's been here a long time but this is his first real, full season

[Snowball]

Why are you so sure he'll be off soon?

1. He likes it here.
2. He's still young.
3. He's improving all the time.
4. He's scoring for fun.
5. He's the main man now.

I think he'll stay for at least another season and enjoy his new stature. If budget dictates that we have to offload a couple of other players to make him the highest paid player here then I suspect that is what will be done.

I seriously hope you are right, because, barring injuries, if he stayed, what could stop us next year now we have almost got it right? Hunt-Long, (Manset-Williams-Church)


I genuinely believe it would be in his interests to go for a better contract in return for a higher release clause, and at least stick it out until January. if he gets to somewhere around 25 this season and bags 13 in 25 before Xmas next season, what might he be worth then?

it isn't just the transfer fee he could earn RFC, he would also be getting himself a bigger wage-packet, and we might be top-two if he went then.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

Alternatively we pay Long silly money, fail to get promoted and lose big money on the season, nothing is guaranteed in football. He stays withing the wage budget if he stays at RFC, we saw what paying some a lot more than others did in The Prem, it causes difficulties. We cannot afford £1m wages with our income, simple.

[Platypuss]

Why are you so sure he'll be off soon?

This perhaps?

"Every player wants to play as high as they can. Obviously I want to get there as soon as I can and hopefully it's with Reading this year, and if not, hopefully someone else wants me there."

http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/long-keen-on-joining-elite-2529357.html

[Royal Rother]

Fair enough but I suspect that's just cliche football talk.

But obviously if he doesn't get rewarded financially for his main-man performance this season one would imagine he'd be off; that quote may have been a little nudge to the club of that fact but I'd be surprised if we don't offer a renewed contract - perhaps with a £5m release trigger...?

[Wimb]

In response to RR, basically what Platy said. All of the pro reasons you stated didn't stop Doyler leaving and nor does it stop any good young talent from wanting to test himself at the top level.

Can I see a scenario where out of loyalty to Brian he stays until January? of course, but I think there's a far bigger chance that the club will get a big bid for him and Long will accept it.

I also agree with you Snowball, like I said it's not a rational thought, it's just how I perceive Long next to other top strikers in our past. Totally agree he's shone in his first full season as a Championship regular, but the fact he's had just one full season out of 6 is probably why he isn't sitting so highly to me.

[Ian Royal]

If Long can keep up even a proportion of this form over at least another season, then he will be close to matching if not overtaking Doyle. However, the fact that Doyle has done it in two Championship seasons with us (despite half of one of those seasons, not being very good) and one Premier League season - and the fact that he is a desirable Prem player, means he is still currently way ahead of Long in Legendary status and IMO quality.

Add in Long's two or three seasons of mediocrity with us and it does somewhat detract from the amazing season he's now having. Which is still a one off so far.

And whilst Doyle has done it more at a higher level, I still think Kitson, for me, eclipses him. Kitson never had a bad season for us. Even in a relegation year when we were poor, couldn't make a goal to save our lives for about a quarter of a season and he was playing at the highest level he still got a decent number of goals. Kitson's career with us was also blighted with injury (almost certainly partly because of his poor attitude to training) and I honestly think if he'd trained better and avoided those lay offs before we got promoted and the season ending injury against 'Boro he'd have played for England.

[Snowball]

Kitson 9 (1) for 2 goals in 2008-09 didn't exactly transform us into a winning side

You can compare the three strikers over the exact same period

Kitson played 918 minutes for 2 goals, Long played 755 minutes for 3, Doyle 332 minutes, no goals

DK KD SL
90 22 68
89 90 01
90 90 26
90 00 90
90 90 00
23 00 79
90 00 41
90 00 90
89 00 90
90 00 90
50 40 90
37 00 90


918 332 755

2 0 3

459 XXX 252

[Terminal Boardom]

TBF, Doyle and Long are completely different types of striker. Doyle's strengths are his balance, first touch and general awareness. Long's key strength is his strength.

[Snowball]

They will make an awesome pair if Wolves stay up...

[Victor Meldrew]

They will make an awesome pair if Wolves stay up...

Awesome is a ratyer overused word these days and IMHO has been devalued to around o.k.

[Snowball]

They will make an awesome pair if Wolves stay up...

They will make a VERY GOOD pairing, each better than they would otherwise be
if Wolves stay up and offer good money and we accept and Long wants to go.


I hope none of the above occurs

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

That would be 08/09 where folk were allowed to leave if we failed, so did not want to get injured possibly. Awful games I seem to recall, and I even went to a few.

[KC Royal]

Fair play to you Snowball. Even as a fan of Long myself i didn't think he was capable of 20 goals a season at this level, though its been looking likely for at least the last month.

McDermott knows him better than anyone, Long stayed with the McDermotts in his first season at the club, (an interesting bit of info provided by Clive Tyldesley during the Villa game last season that i never knew before) so i'm hopeful that with that relationship between them he may stay next season. But if he scores again in the cup i think its pretty inevitable he will go.

[KC Royal]

I'd like to see him continue, win me £650 but more importantly
get RFC into the Play-Offs and the FA Cup Semi-Finals, because,
sadly, I can't see any way of hanging on to him if we stay down.

He is now competing with the top RFC goal-scorers since 2002-03

2005-06 22 Dave Kitson
2009-10 20 Gylfi Siggurdson
2010-11 19 Shane Long (at least 12 more games to play)
2005-06 19 Kevin Doyle
2004-05 19 Dave Kitson
2008-09 18 Kevin Doyle
2002-03 16 Nicky Forster
2005-06 15 Leroy Lita
2003-04 14 Shaun Goater
2006-07 14 Leroy Lita
2006-07 13 Kevin Doyle
2003-04 11 Nicky Forster
2007-08 10 Dave Kitson

Interesting stuff. I'd back Long to score against Sheffield Utd, Preston and Derby so he should at the very least equal Kitson's tally of 22 from 2005-06.

Looking at that list though it really does show what a remarkable season the Sig had last season. 20 goals for a young midfielder in their first season in the team, and a team that for two-thirds of the season were struggling..

[royalhaven]

I'd like to see him continue, win me £650 but more importantly
get RFC into the Play-Offs and the FA Cup Semi-Finals, because,
sadly, I can't see any way of hanging on to him if we stay down.

He is now competing with the top RFC goal-scorers since 2002-03

2005-06 22 Dave Kitson
2009-10 20 Gylfi Siggurdson
2010-11 19 Shane Long (at least 12 more games to play)
2005-06 19 Kevin Doyle
2004-05 19 Dave Kitson
2008-09 18 Kevin Doyle
2002-03 16 Nicky Forster
2005-06 15 Leroy Lita
2003-04 14 Shaun Goater
2006-07 14 Leroy Lita
2006-07 13 Kevin Doyle
2003-04 11 Nicky Forster
2007-08 10 Dave Kitson

Interesting stuff. I'd back Long to score against Sheffield Utd, Preston and Derby so he should at the very least equal Kitson's tally of 22 from 2005-06.

Looking at that list though it really does show what a remarkable season the Sig had last season. 20 goals for a young midfielder in their first season in the team, and a team that for two-thirds of the season were struggling..

Just curious, but how does Long compare if you add Country numbers? I think that puts him at 21.

[Snowball]

I'd like to see him continue, win me £650 but more importantly
get RFC into the Play-Offs and the FA Cup Semi-Finals, because,
sadly, I can't see any way of hanging on to him if we stay down.

He is now competing with the top RFC goal-scorers since 2002-03

2005-06 22 Dave Kitson
2009-10 20 Gylfi Siggurdson
2010-11 19 Shane Long (at least 12 more games to play)
2005-06 19 Kevin Doyle
2004-05 19 Dave Kitson
2008-09 18 Kevin Doyle
2002-03 16 Nicky Forster
2005-06 15 Leroy Lita
2003-04 14 Shaun Goater
2006-07 14 Leroy Lita
2006-07 13 Kevin Doyle
2003-04 11 Nicky Forster
2007-08 10 Dave Kitson

Interesting stuff. I'd back Long to score against Sheffield Utd, Preston and Derby so he should at the very least equal Kitson's tally of 22 from 2005-06.

Looking at that list though it really does show what a remarkable season the Sig had last season. 20 goals for a young midfielder in their first season in the team, and a team that for two-thirds of the season were struggling..

Just curious, but how does Long compare if you add Country numbers? I think that puts him at 21.

Yes but Kevin will have had international goals those seasons, presumably

[Snowball]

I'd like to see him continue, win me £650 but more importantly
get RFC into the Play-Offs and the FA Cup Semi-Finals, because,
sadly, I can't see any way of hanging on to him if we stay down.

He is now competing with the top RFC goal-scorers since 2002-03

2005-06 22 Dave Kitson
2009-10 20 Gylfi Siggurdson
2010-11 19 Shane Long (at least 12 more games to play)
2005-06 19 Kevin Doyle
2004-05 19 Dave Kitson
2008-09 18 Kevin Doyle
2002-03 16 Nicky Forster
2005-06 15 Leroy Lita
2003-04 14 Shaun Goater
2006-07 14 Leroy Lita
2006-07 13 Kevin Doyle
2003-04 11 Nicky Forster
2007-08 10 Dave Kitson

Interesting stuff. I'd back Long to score against Sheffield Utd, Preston and Derby so he should at the very least equal Kitson's tally of 22 from 2005-06.

Looking at that list though it really does show what a remarkable season the Sig had last season. 20 goals for a young midfielder in their first season in the team, and a team that for two-thirds of the season were struggling..

Yes, but it was rather helped by being our only penalty taker
and taking all the free-kicks, too...

The old should-be-put-down Ian H would now be on 12/13 if he'd taken all our pens (+ 2 for Carlisle)