Perspective

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Svlad Cjelli
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Re: Perspective

by Svlad Cjelli » 14 Mar 2011 17:52

Snowball
Svlad Cjelli There’s another way of looking at it – it’s not about how many points we get, as we could win all the games and not get in the play-offs.



I very much doubt that is true. For one thing, if we won all our
games then Leeds, Forest lose a game, and a lot of these sides
still have to play each other


It was an over-simplification to make the point, but you know where I'm coming from - if other clubs screw up we could get into the play-off with far fewer points than we currently reckon we need.

I just wanted to present the targets in a different, relative way.

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Re: Perspective

by Harpers So Solid Crew » 14 Mar 2011 17:53

Snowball
Svlad Cjelli There’s another way of looking at it – it’s not about how many points we get, as we could win all the games and not get in the play-offs.



I very much doubt that is true. For one thing, if we won all our
games then Leeds, Forest lose a game, and a lot of these sides
still have to play each other


It would be easy to show that it is possible, or that it is not possible

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Re: Perspective

by Snowball » 14 Mar 2011 20:00

Svlad Cjelli
Snowball
Svlad Cjelli There’s another way of looking at it – it’s not about how many points we get, as we could win all the games and not get in the play-offs.



I very much doubt that is true. For one thing, if we won all our
games then Leeds, Forest lose a game, and a lot of these sides
still have to play each other


It was an over-simplification to make the point, but you know where I'm coming from - if other clubs screw up we could get into the play-off with far fewer points than we currently reckon we need.

I just wanted to present the targets in a different, relative way.


If we don't get at least 28 points from the last 15 games the other clubs would
need to commit suicide for us to make it (IMO)

Just to remind you this is where we were after game 31, and 5-6 games later?

1 31 +31 60 QPR
2 31 +14 55 Cardiff We've gained 4 points, 6 Goals GD and now have a game in hand)
3 31 +10 54 Norwich We've gained 2 points and 4 Goals GD
4 29 +16 53 Forest We've gained 4 points, 8 Goals GD AND THREE GAMES!!
5 31 +11 53 Swansea We've gained 1 point, 1 Goal GD but now have a game in hand
6 31 +10 52 Leeds We've gained 2 points, 5 goals, now have a game in hand
7 31 +01 48 Leicester We've gained 4 points, 6 Goals and now have a game in hand
8 31 +09 47 Burnley We've gained 2 points, 6 goals, they have a game in hand
9 31 +09 46 Millwall We've gained 4 points, 4 goals and now have a game in hand
10 31 +04 45 Hull City We've gained a point, 6 goals, and now have a game in hand
11 30 +10 44 Watford We've gained 2 points, 4 goals, and have also pulled back their G-i-H
12 31 +11 43 Reading


If we win our game in hand v Preston 1-0

1 31 +31 60 QPR
2 31 +14 55 Cardiff We've gained 7 points, 7 Goals GD
3 31 +10 54 Norwich We've gained 5 points and 5 Goals GD
4 29 +16 53 Forest We've gained 7 points, 9 Goals GD AND TWO GAMES!!
5 31 +11 53 Swansea We've gained 4 points, 2 Goals GD
6 31 +10 52 Leeds We've gained 5 points, 6 goals GD
7 31 +01 48 Leicester We've gained 7 points, 7 Goals
8 31 +09 47 Burnley We've gained 5 points, 7 goals, they have TWO games in hand
9 31 +09 46 Millwall We've gained 7 points, 5 goals
10 31 +04 45 Hull City We've gained 4 points, 7 goals
11 30 +10 44 Watford We've gained 5 points, 5 goals, they have a Game in Hand
12 31 +11 43 Reading

That's pretty much amazing. A lot of sides trying to throw it away.

W3 D1 of our next 4 and we will make it.

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Re: Perspective

by Maguire » 14 Mar 2011 22:32

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Maguire

Actually, 15pts would perfectly match our average for the first 36 games of the season and is where i'd place my money (if I had to)

Was the Watford game (when we looked laughably shit) so long ago that you're just awarding us home wins for the rest of the season?


So not the average of Elwood's games, you know, CURRENT form, 17 games now and over 2 points per game?

So not the average of the games (CURRENT FORM) where Long-Hunt have really turned it on and scored about 20 goals in 15 games?

So not the average of when our classiest CB plays?


Nope, I prefer to keep my sample size as large as possible rather than narrow it down into some arbitrary demographic.

Who is out classiest CB by the way? (honestly, I have no idea)

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Re: Perspective

by loyalroyal4life » 14 Mar 2011 22:42

Still think we need 8 wins from 10 to make it

Or we could win 10 and sneak into 2nd :P


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Re: Perspective

by Ian Royal » 14 Mar 2011 22:44

Maguire
Snowball
Maguire

Actually, 15pts would perfectly match our average for the first 36 games of the season and is where i'd place my money (if I had to)

Was the Watford game (when we looked laughably shit) so long ago that you're just awarding us home wins for the rest of the season?


So not the average of Elwood's games, you know, CURRENT form, 17 games now and over 2 points per game?

So not the average of the games (CURRENT FORM) where Long-Hunt have really turned it on and scored about 20 goals in 15 games?

So not the average of when our classiest CB plays?


Nope, I prefer to keep my sample size as large as possible rather than narrow it down into some arbitrary demographic.

Who is out classiest CB by the way? (honestly, I have no idea)


I wondered that.

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Re: Perspective

by Snowball » 14 Mar 2011 23:44

Arguably our best CB, but definitely the classiest is Zurab

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Re: Perspective

by Snowball » 15 Mar 2011 00:09

If we want the largest sample size, should we do the average of all our points in this league?

Or would you say "Teams Change"?

And if "Teams Change" (which they obviously do) do you not also agree that they can change during a season?


Start of the season, 4-5-1
Federici; Griffin, Williams, Mills, Pearce; Gunnarsson, Karacan; McAnuff; Kebe, Sigurdsson; Long
Federici; Griffin; Williams, Gunnarsson, Pearce; Karacan, Howard; McAnuff, Kebe, Sigurdsson; Church
Federici, Griffin, Williams, Mills, Pearce; Karacan, Howard, Kebe, McAnuff, Sigurdsson; Long
Federici; Gunnarsson, Cummings, Mills, Pearce; Karacan, Howard; Kebe, McAnuff, Sigurdsson; Long

No Elwood (undefeated in the league), no Long-Hunt partnership (27 goals and 13 assists now), no Harte with his 8 goals from LB

We are a different side and playing far better

Reading 01-18 Games 6-7-5 28-22 GD+06 - - - 25 Points (Played 4 of the top six)
Reading 19-36 Games 7-8-3 31-20 GD+11 - - - 29 Points (Played 5 of the top six)

In the second 16 games we were gaining an extra .25 points per game
= 11.5 points per season. That is truly massive

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Re: Perspective

by Maguire » 15 Mar 2011 10:03

We did have Sigurdsson though, that £7 million pound footballer we don't have anymore :-/


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Re: Perspective

by Snowball » 15 Mar 2011 15:56

Maguire We did have Sigurdsson though, that £7 million pound footballer we don't have anymore :-/



yup and we averaged 1.25 ppg with him in the team, on target for 57 for the season
and are better than 1.5 ppg since (69 point season)


12 points, tho', that's nothing, right?

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Re: Perspective

by Snowball » 15 Mar 2011 16:00

13 Reading 36 7-6-5 . . . 24-18 6-3-9 . . . 24-33 -03 48 (48-51)
10 Reading 36 8-7-3 . . . 32-19 5-8-5 . . . 27-23 +17 54 (59-42)


We are six points and TWENTY goals better off than the same time last year

We have scored 11 more goals, conceded 9 less

I think we can safely say, we are doing OK with The Sig

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Re: Perspective

by Gordons Cumming » 15 Mar 2011 16:03

Snowball 13 Reading 36 7-6-5 . . . 24-18 6-3-9 . . . 24-33 -03 48 (48-51)
10 Reading 36 8-7-3 . . . 32-19 5-8-5 . . . 27-23 +17 54 (59-42)


We are six points and TWENTY goals better off than the same time last year

We have scored 11 more goals, conceded 9 less

I think we can safely say, we are doing OK withOUT The Sig

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Re: Perspective

by Maguire » 15 Mar 2011 16:15

Snowball
Maguire We did have Sigurdsson though, that £7 million pound footballer we don't have anymore :-/


yup and we averaged 1.25 ppg with him in the team, on target for 57 for the season
and are better than 1.5 ppg since (69 point season)

12 points, tho', that's nothing, right?


Totally bizarre way to form your opinions on football tbh.

Do you think we'd have had a better or worse season with him in the side, all other things being equal?


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Re: Perspective

by ZacNaloen » 15 Mar 2011 16:16

I think if we had him in the side we'd be in the running with Swansea right now. The season had barely even started when he left us, that's no basis for any statistical sampling.

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Re: Perspective

by Maguire » 15 Mar 2011 16:17

Snowball 13 Reading 36 7-6-5 . . . 24-18 6-3-9 . . . 24-33 -03 48 (48-51)
10 Reading 36 8-7-3 . . . 32-19 5-8-5 . . . 27-23 +17 54 (59-42)


We are six points and TWENTY goals better off than the same time last year

We have scored 11 more goals, conceded 9 less

I think we can safely say, we are doing OK with The Sig


We'd be doing better with him though.

Particularly when you consider he wasn't in the team at the start of last season and took a while to build up his fitness so he could compete in the league.

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Re: Perspective

by Maguire » 15 Mar 2011 16:17

ZacNaloen The season had barely even started when he left us, that's no basis for any statistical sampling.


Well you know that Zac, and I know that, but...well..

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Re: Perspective

by Snowball » 15 Mar 2011 16:43

Maguire
Snowball
Maguire We did have Sigurdsson though, that £7 million pound footballer we don't have anymore :-/


yup and we averaged 1.25 ppg with him in the team, on target for 57 for the season
and are better than 1.5 ppg since (69 point season)

12 points, tho', that's nothing, right?


Totally bizarre way to form your opinions on football tbh.

Do you think we'd have had a better or worse season with him in the side, all other things being equal?


Did we have a better season in 2009-10 with him playing? NO.

Have we done better this season in 32 games than we did in his four? YES

Have we done better in 36 games this season than in 36 last season? YES

You can't say "all other things being equal" It's BECAUSE Gylfi went that we could hang
on to Shane Long this January, didn't sell Federici, were able to extend certain contracts,
could afford to bring in Zurab and Harte

Gylfi, Shane, + Bertrand last season managed 20+9 +1 = 30 Goals

Shane + Harte have 28 Goals with 10 games left.

So where are the missing goals? There aren't any. We've scored 11 more.

Is the defence better or worse? We've conceded 9 fewer goals.

On what basis were we better off AS A TEAM? We weren't. The facts are clear-cut.

Maybe (haven't the time to do it now) MAYBE under McDermot last year (+ 4 games this) beats under Mac (sans Gylfi) this year, but we are currently on schedule (based on the season as a whole) to finish 5 points higher and 23-24 GD better... but based on since Elwood came in we are heading for something arounf 10 points higher.

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Re: Perspective

by Snowball » 15 Mar 2011 16:53

There is a good comparison

Gylfi had 36 League games for us.

P36 W13 D11 L13 58-45 50 Points GD 13 and 1.39 ppg League (63.89 Point 16.61 GD Season) GYLFI STARTING 2009-10 + 2010-11
P32 W12 D13 L07 54-37 49 Points GD 17 and 1.53 ppg League (70.38 Point 24.44 GD season) No Gylfi, 2010-11

We are 6.49 Points better this season (32 Games) (and still improving) and 8 goals better GD...

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Re: Perspective

by Ian Royal » 15 Mar 2011 16:54

Maguire
Snowball 13 Reading 36 7-6-5 . . . 24-18 6-3-9 . . . 24-33 -03 48 (48-51)
10 Reading 36 8-7-3 . . . 32-19 5-8-5 . . . 27-23 +17 54 (59-42)


We are six points and TWENTY goals better off than the same time last year

We have scored 11 more goals, conceded 9 less

I think we can safely say, we are doing OK with The Sig


We'd be doing better with him though.

Particularly when you consider he wasn't in the team at the start of last season and took a while to build up his fitness so he could compete in the league.


And the whole team was generally a shambles until after Xmas for the most part.

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Re: Perspective

by Snowball » 15 Mar 2011 16:55

[quote="Maguire"

We'd be doing better with him though.

[/quote]


If we brought him into THIS team. Don't forget you have to drop someone.

Can't lose Elwood or Tabb/Karacan So have to drop Hunt 7 Goals and 7 Assists in half a season, hmmmm...

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