Long - time for a change?

[SLAMMED]

10-2-3-5 = 20

That = 0

[Son of Len]

That, isn't statistics, thats probabilities.....

If I'm not mistaken, the only reason to use statistics is for their forecasting value. The way to forecast future outcomes is to determine probabilities.

Hey! It appears that statistics and probabilities are closely related. Especially the way Snowball writes about probable future outcomes based on past experience.

[Royal With Cheese]

If there is a direct correlation between Snowball's spouting and the way that Long and Harte have been playing then long may it continue.

[PEARCEY]

Snowball was spot on regarding Shane Long. Nothing else to say.

[Wimb]

Ok, I was bored and should have been doing other things - but for some unknown reason have just read all of this thread, and I am going to come at this argument from a different perspective.

The STATISTICS oft quoted in this thread are actually pretty irrelevant, and oddly enough, with only the occasional exception, most of what people have contributed to this thread makes sense in one form or another.

Lets look at a few things...As you seem to want to refuse to acknowledge, TROLI was advocating Long was RESTED after an 'average' start to the season. A sensible argument, based on a) our form at the time, and b) his 'average' success at the goalscoring side of his game. He didn't suggest he should be taken outside and shot.......

Next, as Long came to us untried to all intense and purposes, Snowball, you couldn't sensibly have become an advocate of the potential success of Long as a goalscorer without having seen him do what he had done over a couple of seasons, which was pick up a decent record given a lack of starting opportunities, and the scoring of a number of vital goals with the game time he had.

It is a KNOWN quantity that the coaching staff were unsure of Longs potential when he first came, and it has been told to me first hand by a senior staff member that he was a makeweight in the Doyle deal, a friendly face away from home for the first time. His fee, and wages were cheap, and he was a punt.

Its all too easy to bang the drum with some prior knowledge that in all probability, given a system that suited, a decent run in the team, fitness being as it should, he would score goals, to add to the never disputed other assets to his game.

This ain't statistics, its plain common sense.

BMD took a risk, he had nurtured Long, but had few other options, with Nhunt injured, and Church not especially prolific at any point in his career.

Hey, its worked out, big time, and nobody is more pleased than me, and every other Royal, but there was a reasonable chance it would work out this way - so well done for being right, but your lack of grace, and lack of acceptance that it was a calculated choice, and few other options were available.

Also, your championing of Harte is not rocket science either, that was shrewd business based on all known form, fit and taking free kicks he would score goals, he always has, at every level.

I don't doubt you are a reasonable judge, I just think you are playing a % game, and in doing so, will naturally be right more than you will be wrong.

That, isn't statistics, thats probabilities.....

^^^ This

And also with PEARCEY

[Snowball]

As a few have noted, the stats showed that Shane was under-rated.

People were not allowing for lack of starts and lack of minutes played, and instead
were highlighting that he had been around forever. Sure he had, but he hadn't PLAYED.

Shane's goals-per-minute (and he was very young) were excellent and the vast majority of strikers
improve until the are around 27-28. It's therefore a statistic to expect Shane to improve, and it's a
statistic that showed his goals-per-minute were already excellent.

The only man to give Shane a run in the team is McDermott, and Shane showed his capabilities
last season getting 9 goals in the second half of the season despite a 4 match ban which cost him
not only 4.5 matches to score goals, but also development time.

This season Shane has proved all the doubters wrong. End of.

23 Goals and 10 assists and 5 other penalties in 44 (1) is fabulous

Add in 3 international goals and another assist, it just gets better.

Add in the bookings he's got for opposition offenders, the defenders he's got sent off,
the wearing down of the opposition, he has been brilliant, utterly brilliant, and with
4 games, possibly 7 games still to play he's 4 goals ahead of Doyle's best season

[Snowball]

Shane has gone second in Actim.

Ian Harte 18th, Jimmy 25th

Jobi 56th

01 Danny Graham Watford Striker 772.00
02 Shane Long Reading Striker 663.00 <<<<<<<<<<

03 Max-Alain Gradel Leeds United Midfielder 645.00
04 Adel Taarabt Queens Park Rangers Midfielder 636.00
05 Jonathan Howson Leeds United Midfielder 634.00
06 Jay Bothroyd Cardiff City Striker 600.00
07 Wesley Hoolahan Norwich City Midfielder 592.00
08 Russell Martin Norwich City Defender 579.00
09 Grant Holt Norwich City Striker 570.00
10 Luciano Becchio Leeds United Striker 569.00
11 Scott Sinclair Swansea City Midfielder 558.00
12 Patrick Kenny Queens Park Rangers Goal Keeper 536.00
13 Albert Adomah Bristol City Midfielder 529.00
14 Andy King Leicester City Midfielder 528.00
15 Andrew Crofts Norwich City Midfielder 519.00
16 Robert Snodgrass Leeds United Striker 519.00
17 Nathan Dyer Swansea City Midfielder 515.00
18 Ian Harte Reading Defender 511.00 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
19 Dorus De Vries Swansea City Goal Keeper 509.00
20 Martin Taylor Watford Defender 509.00
21 Peter Whittingham Cardiff City Midfielder 504.00
22 Kaspars Gorkss Queens Park Rangers Defender 500.00
23 John Ruddy Norwich City Goal Keeper 496.00
24 Steve Morison Millwall Striker 486.00
25 Jimmy Kebe Reading Midfielder 486.00<<<<<<<<<<<

56 Jobi McAnuff Reading Midfielder 414.00
99 Matthew Mills Reading Defender 348.00

[KC Royal]

Let me get this right. We might have done BETTER than Long 22, Hunt 8, Church 5, Manset 2 (with 6 games to play)?

It looks extremely likely that our top-four scorers' total this season
will be second only to the brilliant 05/06 106-point season

22-19-15-10 = 66 2005-06
20-12-12-09 = 53 2009-10
22-09-08-08 = 47 2010-11 (With six games still to play)
18-13-09-07 = 47 2008-09
19-09-06-05 = 39 2004-05
14-11-09-05 = 39 2003-04
16-09-09-04 = 38 2002-04
14-13-04-04 = 35 2006-07
10-06-06-06 = 28 2007-08





McDermot's choices have got us to 5th, on a great run, good chance of automatic, odds-on for the POs at
least and by far the form side in the POs. He has also got Shane's value up to 4-7 Million and rejuvenated
Hunt. Even Churchy has got 5 goals and seems to be coming back to the player he was last season.

And, BTW this season Church has started 13 League games (no goals) and been sub 22 times (5 goals)

It's not as if he's been out in the cold. He HAS had plenty of chances

To put that in perspective, Shane Long had 17 League starts in his first three seasons

Haven't checked this thread for a while and can't believe i'm being pedantic enough to check my initial suspicions, but Church actually scored 13 last season. Thats from soccerbase before you ask. I think our top 4 scorers will prob now finish around the same as last season, i'm hoping that Hunt and Kebe both get double figures before the season is out.

[Snowball]

Haven't checked this thread for a while and can't believe i'm being pedantic enough to check my initial suspicions, but Church actually scored 13 last season. Thats from soccerbase before you ask. I think our top 4 scorers will prob now finish around the same as last season, i'm hoping that Hunt and Kebe both get double figures before the season is out.

From the Reading FC Official Site

16 4 20 Gylfi Sigurdsson
10 2 12 Jimmy Kebe
10 2 12 Simon Church
06 3 09 Shane Long
09 0 09 Grzegorz Rasiak

Are you saying the READING FC are wrong and soccerbase are right?

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

Soccerbase includes one for Wales.

[Snowball]

and what happens when I mention goals for Ireland?

[Ian Royal]

So 12 for Church then.

[Snowball]

FROM THE FOOTBALL LEAGUE SITE (March 3rd)

We all know who was crowned the best player in each division following last week's Football League Awards but now we can reveal the other nine players who make up the top 10 in each league and which other young players have caught the eye so far.

As part of the voting, we sought the views of expert pundits, journalists and former players as to decide on the npower Players of the Year.

Each judge was given a list of players from each club, compiled from votes by fans on npower.com.

There were a lot of tough decisions to make with so many outstanding players, so see if you agree with our decision.

npower Championship

1. Adel Taarabt (Queens Park Rangers)

Taarabt has taken the division by storm this season with superb goals, great assists and inspirational skills. A creative playmaker who has proved the difference in many tight matches for QPR.

2. Scott Sinclair (Swansea City)

A tricky winger full of pace and goals. He has added consistency to his undoubted ability to become a star performer for the Swans since signing from Chelsea.

3. Grant Holt (Norwich City)

Holt was superb for Norwich last season and has continued his great form this, showing real quality to cope at this level. His striking instinct in and around the penalty area has been deadly.

4. Danny Graham (Watford)

Graham ended last season with four goals in the last two matches and he carried that form into this campaign, with eight goals in his first nine matches. He has been key to the Hornets this term.

5. Robert Snodgrass (Leeds United)

It's been an impressive season for Snodgrass who has made the step in level with ease. His goalscoring record might not be the best but his work rate and all round team play make him a vital cog.

6. Andy King (Leicester City)

King is another player who has made the stop up from League 1 with ease. He's scored plenty of goals with 15 to his name so far and has been fantastic in the Foxes engine room.

7. Lee Camp (Nottingham Forest)

Nottingham Forest have kept 12 clean sheets so far, down largely to the form of Lee Camp who has been an ever present. His form has also seen him called up to the Northern Ireland squad.

8. Jay Bothroyd (Cardiff City)

It's been a season to remember for Bothroyd who made his England debut in November after his 15 goals in the first three and a half months of the campaign impressed Fabio Capello.

9. Shane Long (Reading)

After a slow start for both Long and Reading things have improved dramatically with the Irishman on the scoresheet regularly propelling the Royals into the Play-Off shakeup.

10. Shaun Derry (Queens Park Rangers)

A driving presence in midfield, Derry has been marvellously consistent and a great leader. He has been a rock and central to QPR's success so far.

[KC Royal]

Soccerbase includes one for Wales.

Apologies, you're right. I thought that might be the case but didn't bother checking simply because i didn't think he'd scored an international goal

[Snowball]

As well as being PotS,
Shane finished joint-second along with Grant Holt, behind Danny Graham.

I more than trebled my money as I'd backed him each way.











Ian Harte was joint 15th top-scorer!

[No Fixed Abode]

Would have added this to the original thread but it appears to have been locked.

Another game, another two points spaffed away due to Long's inability to hit the target. His workrate up to the 18 yard line is unquestionable and often is performing a thankless task, however he is first a foremost a striker and a striker's ultimate role is to score goals.

It appears the cliched nickname of "Jigsaw" is currently the most accurate summation of his efforts this season in front of goal - 4 goals in 19 league games is atrocious (especially when 3 of those goals were from the penalty spot) for the "number one striker" at any football club.

No doubt Snowball will be all over this thread like a rash stating how Long is actually not going through a bad patch and that he's actually in good form, but the biggest thing for me is the number of points we have failed to pick up recently due to Long's poor finishing. He's missed glorious chances against Cardiff, Norwich, Watford and now Coventry and, as 2-0 alludes to on another thread, it looks more and more like we are going to have to settle for a season of mid table mediocrity.

Time for a change? Well, I certainly think so and I'd venture I'm not in the minority. Whether Brian McDermott agrees remains to be seen but I'm sure there's many a Reading fan that is hoping that Santa brings them an early Christmas present - that being Shane Long being dropped to the bench at Pride Park next Saturday.

[readingbedding]

Time for a change.
Long out etc...

zzzzzzzzzzzz

[Ian Royal]

And the main man comes back from a brief drought with another HUGE brace

[Snowball]

5 games isn't a drought.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

shame the goals do not count towards top scorer.