This Looks Nice

[Snowball]

Championship Form Table Since Game 7 (Doncaster, September 17th)

Why pick Game 7?

Cos it then skews the stats to prove his point.

Here we oxf*rd go.

We started with an unsettled squad, had lost a pile of players,
lost Long after game, had to bring in a new centre-back.

It takes TIME to get a new team playing.

We were DIRE, relegation material for the first six games losing 4
and drawing 1 and only winning at Leicester as they were in disarray.

THEN, we found a pattern and have solidified. We have been less adventurous
(hence so many clean sheets and single goals conceded and 0-0 first halves, and
now close second in the best-defences league.) Had we managed half a dozen
more goals we'd be top.

Win or draw at Blackpool, win at Palace, draw at Forest, beat Saints and Derby, beat Coventry

10-12 points with just six goals, and we would also probably have got a result in both Cardiff games.



I started using the stats once we started to play a settled way with a settled side. Most normal people
accept that it takes a while for form to settle down. I explained myself then, and said that every game
would add one more game played, and I have been perfectly consistent throughout.

Yet you complain when this form table is one short of HALF A SEASON and on Saturday will BE half a season?

Remember Brighton? Remember Derby?

After 6 Games

1 6 5 1 0 3 0 11 4 +7 16 2.67 Brighton and Hove A
2 6 5 0 1 2 0 15 8 +7 15 2.50 Southampton
3 6 4 2 0 2 0 12 5 +7 14 2.33 Middlesbrough
4 6 4 1 1 2 1 15 7 +8 13 2.17 West Ham United
5 6 4 0 2 3 1 8 5 +3 12 2.00 Derby County
6 6 3 2 1 2 0 9 6 +3 11 1.83 Cardiff City
7 6 3 2 1 2 1 8 5 +3 11 1.83 Blackpool

[Snowball]

Championship Form Table Since Game 7 (Doncaster, September 17th)

Why pick Game 7?

Because that's when we started to play, finally settling down the side,
replacing Shane who had left barely a month before, bedding in Gorks
Alf, and Mills etc, finding a new front partnership.

Do you agree or deny we are the form team over the last 22 games?

Do you agree or deny that half-a season's worth of games is a fair guide?

[Maguire]

Presumably if we have a bad run of six games you'll remove them from your "stats" because we were still settling down after the arrival of Roberts, Cywka, and Connolly?

You use the biggest sample size you possibly can. Artificially shrinking your sample size to demonstrate an outcome you've predetermined is just remedial.

Why not use Game 8? Or Game 9?

[Maguire]

Championship Form Table Since Game 7 (Doncaster, September 17th)

Why pick Game 7?

Because that's when we started to play, finally settling down the side,
replacing Shane who had left barely a month before, bedding in Gorks
Alf, and Mills etc, finding a new front partnership.

Do you agree or deny we are the form team over the last 22 games?

Do you agree or deny that half-a season's worth of games is a fair guide?

I agree that an entire season's worth of results is a better guide than a smaller sample, and simply refusing to consider games we lost to give yourself a more positive outcome is (another) failure to handle data correctly.

[Snowball]

Championship Form Table Since Game 7 (Doncaster, September 17th)

Why pick Game 7?

Cos it then skews the stats to prove his point.

and when we've played 23?
and when we've played 24?
and when we've played 25?
and when we've played 26?
and when we've played 27?
and when we've played 28?
and when we've played 29?
and when we've played 30?


Do you moaners not remember the first season after relegation when we were
high in the table BASED ON AN INCREDIBLE START and a fantastic home record
but not playing very well, and we went into the last game, still rubbish, but
amazingly all we had to do was win to get automatic?

But we KNEW Birmingham were a far better outfit and we were not playing well
so there a table with every game up to then was a distortion of the truth

[Snowball]

Presumably if we have a bad run of six games you'll remove them from your "stats" because we were still settling down after the arrival of Roberts, Cywka, and Connolly?

You use the biggest sample size you possibly can. Artificially shrinking your sample size to demonstrate an outcome you've predetermined is just remedial.

Why not use Game 8? Or Game 9?

Have I not already stated that I am judging it from Match 7 to date (current form)
and have been consistent throughout, and will continue to make that form
assessment from the Doncaster game.

Anyone who thinks that our first six games is even a VAGUE representation
of the kind of team we have been from Games 7 to 28 is simply not very bright.


If Burnley brought in Messi and a couple of his pals and started to win every game
we wouldn't look at "current form"? Of course we would and to say otherwise is dumb

[Maguire]

In the last 1 GAME we have accrued 3pts = 3.0ppg = 138pt season!!

All previous games didn't feature Roberts (our main striker) so I haven't included them.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

If Brum were better than us why was it that they got promotion by continuaqlly winning 1-0 games, the GD was low for an automatic promotion.

As for the form over the last 22 games or what ever does it include where the other teams have lost players, like an injusry run etc? Or as mentioned brought new players in and having to find their feet.

[Maguire]

Presumably if we have a bad run of six games you'll remove them from your "stats" because we were still settling down after the arrival of Roberts, Cywka, and Connolly?

You use the biggest sample size you possibly can. Artificially shrinking your sample size to demonstrate an outcome you've predetermined is just remedial.

Why not use Game 8? Or Game 9?

Have I not already stated that I am judging it from Match 7 to date (current form)
and have been consistent throughout, and will continue to make that form
assessment from the Doncaster game.

Anyone who thinks that our first six games is even a VAGUE representation
of the kind of team we have been from Games 7 to 28 is simply not very bright.

If Burnley brought in Messi and a couple of his pals and started to win every game
we wouldn't look at "current form"? Of course we would and to say otherwise is dumb

Again, you're making an arbitary choice to do it from Game 7 based on the results. If we'd won Game 6 then you'd take it from game 6. If we'd lost Game 7 then you'd take it from Game 8.

This is why your treatment is nonsense. Statistical analysis should be done and conclusions drawn from the results. You don't take the result then arbitrarily choose the data that fits it.

[muddyfeet]

my maths is pretty poor, but why arent we calculating the stats based on all the games?!

[Snowball]

Look at the way the overall table lied in 2008-9

3 Reading 09 05 02 02 23 10 +13 17 1.89 ppg 31 September
2 Reading 26 15 06 05 53 24 +29 51 1.96 ppg 31 December
3 Reading 33 17 08 08 58 29 +29 59 1.79 ppg 28 February
3 Reading 39 19 11 09 65 35 +30 68 1.74 ppg 31 March
4 Reading 45 21 14 10 71 38 +33 77 1.71 ppg 30 April


1 45 26 9 10 13 7 79 52 +27 87 1.93 Wolves
2 45 22 14 9 17 9 52 36 +16 80 1.78 Birmingham
3 45 22 13 10 18 12 64 39 +25 79 1.76 Sheffield United
4 45 21 14 10 21 14 71 38 +33 77 1.71 Reading


SURE we were still fourth going into that last game, but our overall ppg had been dropping
steadily month on month from Xmas

and THIS was our form in 2009.

TWELFTH

12 Reading 19 6 8 5 18 14 +4 26 1.37 ppg


Going into that last game we were playing like the twelfth-best team in the league
almost devoid of any confidence and not able, over FOUR MONTHS to average a goal a game


Now should we have taken the 45-Game table position, or the true form position of "2009"?

[Snowball]

my maths is pretty poor, but why arent we calculating the stats based on all the games?!

See the post above about the 2008-09 season

[Mr Angry]

Look at the way the overall table lied in 2008-9

I thought that the league table didn't lie? Isn't that what we are constantly told??

[Maguire]

my maths is pretty poor, but why arent we calculating the stats based on all the games?!

Because some people's maths is even poorer than yours

[muddyfeet]

thats quite comforting

[Silver Fox]

Snowball, if you'd of said "it's from Donny at home and we play Donny away this weekend", you might have gotten away with it

[Snowball]

Statistical analysis should be done and conclusions drawn from the results. You don't take the result then arbitrarily choose the data that fits it.

I've taken a date/game, and I'm making a prediction

How about you put your money where your mouth is?

How many points are you saying Reading FC will finish on?

We don't need to factor in the new guys, do we as the
only table that matters is the one for the whole season

Correct?

or are you saying WE MIGHT IMPROVE


Based on the whole season we should finish on 74 Points and be 7th (where we are now) YOUR VIEW

Based on the first six games total plus current form we should finish on 78 or 79 points (probably close 4th) MY VIEW


46/28 * 45 = 73.9 Points
45 + (18 * 1.86) = 78.5 Points

[Snowball]

Look at the way the overall table lied in 2008-9

I thought that the league table didn't lie? Isn't that what we are constantly told??

Instead of merely being "cute" why don't you explain away the 2008-9 tables I've posted.

We were in a false position. We lacked confidence and firepower and despite
being close fourth and theoretically one win away from promotion we were
poor second-favourites going into that Birmingham game


And WHY?

because our form in 2009 had been rubbish and our good form up to Xmas
distorted the picture

[themadstad]

Snowball you ask paultheroyal why we have to get better. Yet in another post you said on last 22 form we'd finish on 78/79 and then went on to say if we improve this percentile and that percentile to get to the 80+ points. So it we seem we do have to get better or improve whichever you want to use.

The players in may not even make a difference. Teams will up their game, we face teams fighting for promotion, play offs or to avoid relegation now until the end.

[Snowball]

In the last 1 GAME we have accrued 3pts = 3.0ppg = 138pt season!!

All previous games didn't feature Roberts (our main striker) so I haven't included them.

You are a very bright man.

Nevertheless 45 + 54 is 99.