This Looks Nice

[Snowball]

Snowball you ask paultheroyal why we have to get better. Yet in another post you said on last 22 form we'd finish on 78/79 and then went on to say if we improve this percentile and that percentile to get to the 80+ points. So it we seem we do have to get better or improve whichever you want to use.

The players in may not even make a difference. Teams will up their game, we face teams fighting for promotion, play offs or to avoid relegation now until the end.

Paul the Royal said we have to improve TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.

I'm saying we don't have to improve AT ALL to make the POs

We need to improve TO WIN AUTOMATIC

[Snowball]

We need to be playing a whole lot better to even think about getting into the play offs never mind top 2! Dillusional springs to mind.

We don't need to improve our ppg AT ALL to make the POs

78+ points WILL make the POs COMFORTABLY

[Maguire]

Statistical analysis should be done and conclusions drawn from the results. You don't take the result then arbitrarily choose the data that fits it.

I've taken a date/game, and I'm making a prediction

How about you put your money where your mouth is?

How many points are you saying Reading FC will finish on?

We don't need to factor in the new guys, do we as the
only table that matters is the one for the whole season

Correct?

or are you saying WE MIGHT IMPROVE

Based on the whole season we should finish on 74 Points and be 7th (where we are now) YOUR VIEW

Based on the first six games total plus current form we should finish on 78 or 79 points (probably close 4th) MY VIEW

46/28 * 45 = 73.9 Points
45 + (18 * 1.86) = 78.5 Points

I don't believe I've made any predictions, nor have I claimed that the league table won't change between now and the end of the season.

I'm merely flying the flag for the good science brigade.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

Going into the Birmingham game they had averaged 1 goal per game away from home all season, 22 in 22 games, we had conceded 15 goals, so for them to score more than 1 was less than likely. We had averaged a goal a game in 2009 your figures, so surely 1-1 was the sensible outcome. We had also just gone 4 without defeat, 3 of those away, and just 1 defeat in 8, what was also happening at the time was both Reading and Brum were dropping points at home, where fans put them under pressure, but both were doing better away from home. Reality is that Birmingham deserved the place we didnt.

[Snowball]

In the last 1 GAME we have accrued 3pts = 3.0ppg = 138pt season!!

All previous games didn't feature Roberts (our main striker) so I haven't included them.

It is a perfectly valid approach to commit to statting "The Roberts Era"

However I think you might want to wait at least six games before you get too excited.

If we win our next 5 games 2-0, however, and suddenly we are on 60 points
with 13 games to go, maybe your statting will start to have some power


Just as Elwood's did last season.



A stat looking at the club since Roberts/Cywka joined is a good idea

(they did, after all, win a penalty each, meaning at least 36 more pens this season,
unless Cywka starts - he should win 8-9 pens per game)...

[Maguire]

(they did, after all, win a penalty each, meaning at least 36 more pens this season,
unless Cywka starts - he should win 8-9 pens per game)...

[melonhead]

We need to be playing a whole lot better to even think about getting into the play offs never mind top 2! Dillusional springs to mind.

luckily there is plenty of room for improvement

[Snowball]

s

I don't believe I've made any predictions, nor have I claimed that the league table won't change between now and the end of the season.

I'm merely flying the flag for the good science brigade.

No you're not. You're ignoring improvements in a machine
and predicting its efficiency is identical to the prototype

That is BAD Science.


Your way is to say that after the invention of the jet engine and streamlined aluminium aircaft,
that, since the average speed of airplanes up to then was 200 MPH or so with a freakish max of 600
in a dive, that we MIGHT, "one day" get up to 650.

That's Concorde oxf*rd.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

Wigh the signings that McD has made he wants to hope the results improve a little, play-offs are the least of what is needed to make the new owners happy.

[Vision]

Do you moaners not remember the first season after relegation when we were
high in the table BASED ON AN INCREDIBLE START and a fantastic home record
but not playing very well, and we went into the last game, still rubbish, but
amazingly all we had to do was win to get automatic?

But we KNEW Birmingham were a far better outfit and we were not playing well
so there a table with every game up to then was a distortion of the truth

Not really. Birmingham were ahead of us anyway up to that point so it wasn't a distortion at all if you believe they were a better outfit than us.

Also statiscally we'd won our previous two games so were in shit hot form and should have won surely.

Your stats don't make any allowance for how well we've played in your 22 game sequence either just the results so its a bit rich using that as an example here.

[Snowball]

Going into the Birmingham game they had averaged 1 goal per game away from home all season, 22 in 22 games, we had conceded 15 goals, so for them to score more than 1 was less than likely. We had averaged a goal a game in 2009 your figures, so surely 1-1 was the sensible outcome. We had also just gone 4 without defeat, 3 of those away, and just 1 defeat in 8, what was also happening at the time was both Reading and Brum were dropping points at home, where fans put them under pressure, but both were doing better away from home. Reality is that Birmingham deserved the place we didnt.

If two clubs are averaging a goal, for either to score 2 rather than 1 is trivially different from the average.

In one-off games anomalies can always occur. Over MANY games they are much less significant.

And note that Birmingham's first goal was a total error by Hanheman, hardly a properly worked Birmingham goal.

I'd say the stats for scoring were smack on, and the stats for who would lose if one side did, strongly indicated it would be RFC

[Maguire]

s

I don't believe I've made any predictions, nor have I claimed that the league table won't change between now and the end of the season.

I'm merely flying the flag for the good science brigade.

No you're not. You're ignoring improvements in a machine
and predicting its efficiency is identical to the prototype

That is BAD Science.

Your way is to say that after the invention of the jet engine and streamlined aluminium aircaft,
that, since the average speed of airplanes up to then was 200 MPH or so with a freakish max of 600
in a dive, that we MIGHT, "one day" get up to 650.

That's Concorde oxf*rd.

What a peculiar analogy.

We had Shane Long for the first game of the season. Now we don't. How much do you feel the efficiency of "the machine" was improved by his departure?

That's like taking the vertical stabiliser of an aeroplane and expecting it to fly as well without one.

[melonhead]

i agree with snowball that it does look nice to see us top of any form table, no matter how artificially drawn. i also agree that with the new arrivals we have the potential to improve, im hopeful for th eplayoffs, and believe its possible, with some confidence, form and a shift in our style that we can make second


other than that i disagree with everything hes argued since, and dislike his methods.

most of all im bored shitless with these protracted borefest stat/argument threads

[themadstad]

Snowball you ask paultheroyal why we have to get better. Yet in another post you said on last 22 form we'd finish on 78/79 and then went on to say if we improve this percentile and that percentile to get to the 80+ points. So it we seem we do have to get better or improve whichever you want to use.

The players in may not even make a difference. Teams will up their game, we face teams fighting for promotion, play offs or to avoid relegation now until the end.

Paul the Royal said we have to improve TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.

I'm saying we don't have to improve AT ALL to make the POs

We need to improve TO WIN AUTOMATIC

Oh ok well it's hit and miss at the moment. We aren't in the play offs and team below us game in hand. So keeping focus and a slight improvement would be required as I say teams we have to play all tough now.

[Snowball]

Wigh the signings that McD has made he wants to hope the results improve a little, play-offs are the least of what is needed to make the new owners happy.

and as I am saying (denying my gut feeling when I watch the team)
we would probably have made the POs without these additions
(78 points predicted)

Current form looks good enough for the POs, and for automatic?


Now we have a decent shot at automatic, but having those 5/6 points to make up means
that's what we have to do... First MAINTAIN current form

Predicted extra points to end of season

33.63 Birmingham
33.48 Reading
32.76 West Ham
31.86 Cardiff
30.24 Hull
29.70 Burnley
29.52 Saints
28.62 Leeds
27.90 Blackpool
26.64 Boro

If all these clubs maintained this 22-Game form we would gain

Ignoring the major effects of six-pointers

7 Points on Boro (We have to go to their place)
5 Points on Leeds (Still to come to the Madejski)
5 Points on Blackpool (Still to come to the Madejski)
4 Points on Southampton (2 short) (We have to go to their place)
4 Points on Burnley (Still to come to the Madejski)
3 Points on Hull (Played twice)
2 Points on Cardiff (3 Short) (Played twice)
1 Points on West Ham (We have to go to their place)

We LOSE ground on Birmingham because they have an extra game (And we have to go to their place)


So we need to find 8 points on top of current form to pass West Ham
So we need to find 3 points on top of current form to pass Saints
So we need to find 3 points on top of current form to pass Cardiff (maybe 4 because of GD/Goals scored)
So we need to find 3 points on top of current form to pass Birmingham

[1871 Royal]

Because thats when we started winning, shame there isn't a table we can see that starts from Game 1 that, you know, actually counts?

Precisely

ZING!

[Vision]

Wigh the signings that McD has made he wants to hope the results improve a little, play-offs are the least of what is needed to make the new owners happy.

and as I am saying (denying my gut feeling when I watch the team)
we would probably have made the POs without these additions
(78 points predicted)

Current form looks good enough for the POs, and for automatic?


Now we have a decent shot at automatic, but having those 5/6 points to make up means
that's what we have to do... First MAINTAIN current form

Predicted extra points to end of season

33.63 Birmingham
33.48 Reading
32.76 West Ham
31.86 Cardiff
30.24 Hull
29.70 Burnley
29.52 Saints
28.62 Leeds
27.90 Blackpool
26.64 Boro

If all these clubs maintained this 22-Game form we would gain

Ignoring the major effects of six-pointers

7 Points on Boro (We have to go to their place)
5 Points on Leeds (Still to come to the Madejski)
5 Points on Blackpool (Still to come to the Madejski)
4 Points on Southampton (2 short) (We have to go to their place)
4 Points on Burnley (Still to come to the Madejski)
3 Points on Hull (Played twice)
2 Points on Cardiff (3 Short) (Played twice)
1 Points on West Ham (We have to go to their place)

We LOSE ground on Birmingham because they have an extra game (And we have to go to their place)


So we need to find 8 points on top of current form to pass West Ham
So we need to find 3 points on top of current form to pass Saints
So we need to find 3 points on top of current form to pass Cardiff (maybe 4 because of GD/Goals scored)
So we need to find 3 points on top of current form to pass Birmingham

If those clubs follow the same pattern as they have for the last 22 games of course.Which they almost certainly wont. Some may do worse but some may improve themselves which would leave us requiring more.

[Vision]

Seriously Snowball what do you THINK will happen.

Do you THINK we will get Automatic,play-off or just miss out?

[1871 Royal]

Well the stats show .......

[Snowball]

Your stats don't make any allowance for how well we've played in your 22 game sequence either just the results so its a bit rich using that as an example here.

I've already said that my gut tells me we are ordinary, mid-table (prior to the new signings, anyway)

But you don't get to be top of the form table over 22 games if you really ARE a crappy mid-table outfit.

That's why I use stats. The stats in this case tell me I'm missing something.

For example, McD has us set up not to concede and that means
we are less adventurous but can pinch games.

At Leeds, at Burnley, the disallowed goal at Palace, at Blackpool.



This

"For example, McD has us set up not to concede and that means
we are less adventurous but can pinch games."

Means if Kebe or Hunt (or Alf or Roberts) goes on a streak of goal-scoring
our points-per-game could ROCKET

I think McD believes we can play a more exciting game but at the expense
of letting in more goals.

This is vbery similar to last season when we were dour, opened up and then had a couple
of weeks of crazy results, 4-0, 4-3, 1-3, 1-1, 3-3 and the Leeds game should have been 4-1