This Looks Nice

[Snowball]

We had Shane Long for the first game of the season. Now we don't. How much do you feel the efficiency of "the machine" was improved by his departure?

That's like taking the vertical stabiliser of an aeroplane and expecting it to fly as well without one.

Er, we REPLACED him, and we replaced Mills. And it took a while to get back to stable.

[1871 Royal]

What I want to know, and this is a serious question .......

Does anyone REALLY care whether we are top of the form table from 7 games into the season (still trying to get my head around that) or do people ACTUALLY care where we finish in the form table after 46 games?

Hm?

[Snowball]

Oh ok well it's hit and miss at the moment. We aren't in the play offs and team below us game in hand. So keeping focus and a slight improvement would be required as I say teams we have to play all tough now.

How is it hit and miss? 24 points out of our last 33

5 defeats in 22 games



1-0 Away Forest
1-0 Away Blackpool
3-1 Away Cardiff (Our worst result of the season)
1-2 Home Cardiff (A Freak Goal)
1-0 Home Hull (a HIGHLY dubious goal)

We have lost by two goals just twice in the whole season



Hadn't noticed Boro's game in hand but they are averaging 1.48 ppg over the last 22. Not very good.

[chilipepper91]

Isn't there already a thread to post this drivel in?

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=110690&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[melonhead]

care is a bit strong- it was mildly interesting for about a second

[1871 Royal]

For me that still doesn't warrant all these threads of drivel.

IMO there should be one thread for stats and no one gets to argue, Snowball just posts the stats and people can read or not read it. Whatever they like. But only Snowball gets privileges to post in the thread.

[Vision]

Your stats don't make any allowance for how well we've played in your 22 game sequence either just the results so its a bit rich using that as an example here.

I've already said that my gut tells me we are ordinary, mid-table (prior to the new signings, anyway)

But you don't get to be top of the form table over 22 games if you really ARE a crappy mid-table outfit.

That's why I use stats. The stats in this case tell me I'm missing something.

Oh you're missing something alright.

So come on then, where do you think we will finish this season?

[Snowball]

Seriously Snowball what do you THINK will happen.

Do you THINK we will get Automatic,play-off or just miss out?

I think we'll have a much better idea, very soon.

A Doncaster
H Coventry
A Derby
H Burnley
A Middlesbrough
A Millwall
H Portsmouth
H Leicester

If we get a really good result at Doncaster, say with Roberts scoring again and either Hunt or Alf scoring
and then we beat Coventry, I think anything will be possible, we will be so UP. Middlesboro away is tough
on paper, but if we can get a result there, the other seven are all potentially winnable. I don't mean I think
we will W7 D1 of these 8, but the way the fixtures have fallen, we have a very, VERY good chance of 16-19
points from these 8.

I know we have a horrible April, but I think it's the next 8 games that will decide where we finish.

Do really well in these and the momentum will be with us, we'll be close to second. Then I think
we'll get a decent return of points from West Ham, Blackpool, Saints, Brighton.

I will REALLY fancy us if we win our next two, but we could lose 1-0 at Donny, draw at home to Coventry. It happens.

Personally I think we'll win both, and if we do, we will be aiming to pinch automatic on the last day of the season at Birmingham

[Snowball]

Your stats don't make any allowance for how well we've played in your 22 game sequence either just the results so its a bit rich using that as an example here.

I've already said that my gut tells me we are ordinary, mid-table (prior to the new signings, anyway)

But you don't get to be top of the form table over 22 games if you really ARE a crappy mid-table outfit.

That's why I use stats. The stats in this case tell me I'm missing something.

Oh you're missing something alright.

So come on then, where do you think we will finish this season?

If we win our next two (crucial IMO, for momentum and feel-good)
I think we will go to Birmingham last day needing a result for automatic
but will already be comfortably top four, maybe better.


is that clear enough?

[themadstad]

The Middlesbrough we lost to? They win that game in hand above they go. So even though the stats say we are this and that in last 22, we are sitting 7th.

Top two this team, what laugh lol. Like you say on current form of last 22 games could put us at 78. Yet based on season to date we'd scrape 74. So we need to improve by 4 points to get to the level of last 22. Improve further to get to get 2nd spot which I can't see much to back up that much of an improvement.

[Vision]

So come on then, where do you think we will finish this season?

If we win our next two (crucial IMO, for momentum and feel-good)
I think we will go to Birmingham last day needing a result for automatic
but will already be comfortably top four, maybe better.


is that clear enough?

We're getting there. Do you think we'll win those next two games?

[Mr Angry]

If we win our next two (crucial IMO, for momentum and feel-good)
I think we will go to Birmingham last day needing a result for automatic
but will already be comfortably top four, maybe better.


is that clear enough?

I bet you £1000 that if we win the next 2 games, when we play Brum on the last day of the season we will NOT need a result for automatic promotion.

Put your money where your mouth is.

[Maguire]

1-2 Home Cardiff (A Freak Goal)

The really good finish from a really good player after poor defensive play from us? Oh yeah, i remember that one.

[winchester_royal]

Snowball's ridiculous propaganda is on the same level as the moron who runs the RFC twitter feed.

Wait a minute....

[Maguire]

We had Shane Long for the first game of the season. Now we don't. How much do you feel the efficiency of "the machine" was improved by his departure?

That's like taking the vertical stabiliser of an aeroplane and expecting it to fly as well without one.

Er, we REPLACED him, and we replaced Mills. And it took a while to get back to stable.

We replaced him with who? A worse player who scores fewer goals?

That's like taking the wings off your imaginary plane and replacing them with bits of paper.

Shit analogies are shit.

[muddyfeet]

[Ian Royal]

Seeing as the table is generally considered to be meaningless until game 10 (admittedly an arbitrary point in itself), I'd like to see our rolling 10 game form over the season so far. That might give us an indication of how we're doing and what we might end up on. If someone has a major issue with the use of 10 (it's only the base system from which we deal with maths after all) I'd be happy to look at 12 given that's the closest to a quarter of the season you can get too. Or tbh any number between 8 and 15.

I may even work it out myself tonight whilst watching the Brizzle match.

I'm not going to join in the snowball bashing because an admirable job is already being done on the poor treatment of statistics front.

[Snowball]

The Middlesbrough we lost to?

Not sure I'm going to be impressed by someone
who doesn't even know that you don't lose a 0-0

There y'go

Sat 1 October 15:00 H Middlesbrough FLC D 0-0 17,418

They win that game in hand above they go. So even though the stats say we are this and that in last 22, we are sitting 7th.

This is so very true.

If they lose their game in hand they stay below us.
If they draw their game in hand they will go one point above us, with an inferior GD
If they win their game in hand less than by four goals, they'll be 3 points clear of us, with an inferior GD

I am TOTALLY aware of the above facts and I learned to count in Primary School.

But one game, right now, doesn't mean that much.


What matters is that Middlesboro are on the slide and averaging 1.48 points per game. They HAVE to improve to stay in the play-offs.
Reading FC, OTOH, if they maintain the form they have shown for the last 22 games WILL be in the play-offs

Just as it was no big deal we were fourth on Saturday night, it's no big deal we're seventh now.

Top two this team, what laugh lol.

Which team is that?

The team that is top of the current form tables and has won 8 of its last 11 games
or the IMPROVED team with Roberts, Cywka, Connolly and Kebe re-signed?

The automatic places are a big stretch, no question of that, but RFC only have to
find an extra 3 or 4 points (on top of current form) UNLESS a team other than West Ham
gets more than 2 points per game for the rest of the season.

if we have a TINY improvement on current 22 game form and manage 2.05 ppg (37 points from 18)
we will be on 82 points.

Far fetched? We have amassed 24 from the last 11. That is 2.11 ppg

Like you say on current form of last 22 games could put us at 78. Yet based on season to date we'd scrape 74.
So we need to improve by 4 points to get to the level of last 22.

This is WRONG.

If we continue our current form we will have 78 points (with a bit of leeway) that's allowing for the bad start.

We don't need to "improve" to "get to the level of the last 22 games" We are there already.

If we played a whole season at 1.86 ppg we'd have 85-86 points

Improve further to get to get 2nd spot which I can't see much to back up that much of an improvement.

If we continue our current form we will have 78 points (with a bit of leeway) (1.86 ppg) ("33.48 points")

If we improve MARGINALLY and change that projected 33.48 to 36 (roughly turn one draw into a win)
then we finish on 81. Nick a draw where we should lose (West Ham, Saints or Boro) and that's 82 points

Say we DO manage 82 points (and we have improved the squad a LOT, IMO)

Sides would need to get 83 points to be sure of finishing above us.

Here are the required ppg's for 83 points followed by the current 22-game form

Need (22)
1.61 1.82 West Ham
1.83 1.77 Cardiff
1.78 1.64 Saints
1.95 1.77 Birmingham
2.06 1.55 Hull
2.11 1.55 Blackpool

Blackpool and Hull will have to play like league-winners for 18 games,
more or less, so will Birmingham.

West ham can afford a DROP in form.

Cardiff would need to find an extra point (ie they have to improve)
Saints would have to find 3 points (it works out at 2.5)

We have played two of our rivals twice (good thing!)

[Snowball]

I bet you £1000 that if we win the next 2 games, when we play Brum on the last day of the season we will NOT need a result for automatic promotion.

Put your money where your mouth is.

Well, if I HAD £1,000...

But what does your (typical) statement mean?

1. Are you saying that if we win our next two games, that by the time we get to game 46 it will be impossible to get automatic?

2. Are you saying that if we win our next two games, that by the time we get to game 46 we will already HAVE automatic?

Any chance you could be CLEAR?

If you are saying (2) then you think we can make up 7 points on Saints and 6 on Cardiff in 17 games PLUS
4 more points so that even if we lose at Birmingham and they both win, we can't be caught.

If we averaged the same as the 106 point 2005-6 team that would get 39 points in those 17 games (84)

To be with 3 points of us Cardiff (81) will need 31 points from 17 games (1.82), Saints (30) (1.76)

So I presume you don't mean (2) as that means us out-doing the 2005-6 RFC side and both Cardiff and Saints imploding

[Svlad Cjelli]

So, in summary, if we improve our form we'll be ok, but it's unlikely that other teams will improve their form, so we'll be ok .....

FWIW I think it'll be a 3-way scrap for the top two places between West Ham, Cardiff & Birmingham. I think Southampton have been sussed out.