This Looks Nice

[Snowball]

Seeing as the table is generally considered to be meaningless until game 10 (admittedly an arbitrary point in itself), I'd like to see our rolling 10 game form over the season so far. That might give us an indication of how we're doing and what we might end up on. If someone has a major issue with the use of 10 (it's only the base system from which we deal with maths after all) I'd be happy to look at 12 given that's the closest to a quarter of the season you can get too. Or tbh any number between 8 and 15.

I may even work it out myself tonight whilst watching the Brizzle match.

I'm not going to join in the snowball bashing because an admirable job is already being done on the poor treatment of statistics front.

And yet you say "Seeing as the table is generally considered to be meaningless until game 10 "


And I've started from game 7, saying more or less the same thing, cited Brighton, TOP after 6 on 2.67 ppg, Derby 5th

This is the table after the first ten games. Note our form is less than half a point per season less than Birmingham

1 18 11 2 5 26-19 +07 35 1.94 89.24 Season West Ham United
2 18 09 7 2 32-20 +12 34 1.89 86.94 Season Cardiff City
3 19 10 5 4 33-14 +19 35 1.84 84.64 Season Birmingham City
4 18 10 3 5 24-16 +08 33 1.83 84.18 Season Reading
5 19 10 1 8 28-21 +07 31 1.63 74.98 Season Burnley
6 18 08 5 5 26-19 +07 29 1.61 74.06 Season Southampton

[Maguire]

It's said to be meaningless after 10 games because the sample size is so small, not because the first 10 games somehow "don't count"

I'd say looking at any batch of ten games over the season is less meaningful than looking at 15 or 20 or 30 or yes, 46.

[Snowball]

So, in summary, if we improve our form we'll be ok, but it's unlikely that other teams will improve their form, so we'll be ok .....

No

In Summary if we MERELY MAINTAIN our form we will finish on 78 or 79 points
and that should be good enough for fourth.

FWIW I think it'll be a 3-way scrap for the top two places between West Ham, Cardiff & Birmingham. I think Southampton have been sussed out.

I admit I find it hard to believe the pre-TSI squad was anywhere NEAR those three OR Saints

But we have kept getting the results, for 22 games now, so maybe my gut feel is simply wrong.

Look at just one game, home to Barnsley. How does a side get three pens and manage to lose?

Had we won that game we'd be clear in 4th


But with Connolly and Roberts I have to think we can at least average 1.9 ppg until the end of the season

[Tails]

Just use this Snowball.

Form Table

[Snowball]

It's said to be meaningless after 10 games because the sample size is so small, not because the first 10 games somehow "don't count"

I'd say looking at any batch of ten games over the season is less meaningful than looking at 15 or 20 or 30 or yes, 46.

How about 22, soon to be 23?

[rfc2001]

MCD is tactical mind game wizard. Everything he's says just brings confidence. His honest assessments gives me confidence that he isn't delusional and knows what is going on. He has a plan, he understands what he's wants to achieve and how to play! It's just a slow process after losing sig long ect

[Ghost Royal]

What I want to know, and this is a serious question .......

Does anyone REALLY care whether we are top of the form table from 7 games into the season (still trying to get my head around that) or do people ACTUALLY care where we finish in the form table after 46 games?

Hm?

After 46 games is the most reliable (only?) way of judging a successful season. But as we all know, the Championship positions can be vastly changed as a result of form....Brighton have already shown us that this season, I suspect Southampton are about to show us and I really hope West Ham show us over the next 5 or 6 games.

String together a few great runs of 8 or 9 games (even if they're nicked 1-0s in the last 10 mins) could mean the difference between mid-table obscurity and play-off positions.

That's why the overall league table at this stage of the season is only an indicator....unsettled teams, poor pitch conditions in winter, injuries as a result of first half season, manager sackings in December/January (which seem thin on the ground this season compared to last season), player transfers etc. Plus when you factor in the "end of season" scramble to avoid relegation (teams at the bottom nicking points off of play-off contenders), teams fighting for those auto-promotion/play-off places etc etc. it means that looking at form over anything above say 10 games at this point in the season is pretty meaningless.

I think a 7 or 8 game form table is a far better indicator to see how we are doing. Currently, we top of the 8 game form table, and Southampton (despite holding 2nd place in the full league table) I think are in 22nd place. What this tells me is that despite us being just outside the play-offs, those teams above us have worse form and are on the down and we're on the up, and Southampton seem to be dropping like a heavier stone than Brighton did before Xmas.

Taking 22 games (or 15, or 3 or 7 even) and extrapolating that out to the rest of the season in my opinion is pointless to serve as anything other than an indicator. I'm not involved in professional football management (yet!) but I would place a fairly safe bet that nobody in professional footballing circles sits around and says "If we get 1.83ppg, we'll be in with promotion".

In summary...throw away your extrapolated stats, take the current full league table as an indicator only, look at form over the last 7 or 8 games, look at the next 7 or 8 games and the opponent's form, and enjoy the football and seeing how the table pans out differently to how you expected!

plus a big +1 to the good science brigade @maguire....note that my argument above is not about statistical analysis (which I agree with you is meaningless in the style that Snowball has presented) but about using form as an indicator to forecast potential season-end rankings....very different things!

[The Rouge]

I know we have a horrible April, but I think it's the next 8 games that will decide where we finish.

I think the next 18 games will decide where we finish.

[Ghost Royal]

I know we have a horrible April, but I think it's the next 8 games that will decide where we finish.

I think the next 18 games will decide where we finish.

I think it's the 46 games overall that will decide where we finish.

[Maguire]

It's said to be meaningless after 10 games because the sample size is so small, not because the first 10 games somehow "don't count"

I'd say looking at any batch of ten games over the season is less meaningful than looking at 15 or 20 or 30 or yes, 46.

How about 22, soon to be 23?

Better, but not as good as 28 about to become 29

[themadstad]

Ah of course a draw then my bad.

Like how you point out things and word things when challenged just slightly. Would appear you don't like it.

Anyway my calculation was based on the season to date would get us to 74 as apposed to last 22 fyi.

[PlasticRoyale]

I agree with Maguire

[Snowball]

Ten Game Moving Average

Points per Game and Form Position

There are no games "dropped out"

We have steadily improved and apart from one anomalous week we have been "top six" on Last 10-Games
since game 9 (Bristol City Away). We have been top or second on 10-Game Form since November 1st (Forest Away)

Apart from one week where we dropped to 11th (for a single game) we have been 7th or better
since Game 8, September 24th Coventry 1-1

On all logic we are good for the top six. We have been 4th or better on form since Sept 29, Palace 0-0 Away. Four solid months.

Games-ppg-Pos
01-10 1.20 15 Millwall to Boro
02-11 1.40 12 Leicester-Burnley
03-12 1.20 17 Portsmouth-Derby
04-13 1.30 15 Barnsley-Saints
05-14 1.27 15
06-15 1.27 13
07-16 1.55 09 Doncaster Home 2-0
08-17 1.55 07
09-18 1.55 06
10-19 1.73 06
11-20 1.45 11
12-21 1.64 06
13-22 1.70 07
14-23 1.90 04 Palace Away 0-0
15-24 2.10 01 Forest November 1st
16-25 2.10 01
17-27 2.10 01
18-27 2.10 02
19-28 2.10 02

[Snowball]

It's said to be meaningless after 10 games because the sample size is so small, not because the first 10 games somehow "don't count"

I'd say looking at any batch of ten games over the season is less meaningful than looking at 15 or 20 or 30 or yes, 46.

How about 22, soon to be 23?

Better, but not as good as 28 about to become 29

Disagree

[Snowball]

I know we have a horrible April, but I think it's the next 8 games that will decide where we finish.

I think the next 18 games will decide where we finish.

So the first 28 don't?

[Snowball]

MCD is tactical mind game wizard. Everything he's says just brings confidence. His honest assessments gives me confidence that he isn't delusional and knows what is going on. He has a plan, he understands what he's wants to achieve and how to play! It's just a slow process after losing sig long ect

Agreed. I believe he sets us up not to concede and hoped we'd nick points.

Now watch us open up just a bit looking to score a few more.

Who wants to bet we will average more goals per game for this last 18 games?

[themadstad]

Though the team finishing 4th is very rarely the team prompted.

So, in summary, if we improve our form we'll be ok, but it's unlikely that other teams will improve their form, so we'll be ok .....

No

In Summary if we MERELY MAINTAIN our form we will finish on 78 or 79 points
and that should be good enough for fourth.

FWIW I think it'll be a 3-way scrap for the top two places between West Ham, Cardiff & Birmingham. I think Southampton have been sussed out.

I admit I find it hard to believe the pre-TSI squad was anywhere NEAR those three OR Saints

But we have kept getting the results, for 22 games now, so maybe my gut feel is simply wrong.

Look at just one game, home to Barnsley. How does a side get three pens and manage to lose?

Had we won that game we'd be clear in 4th


But with Connolly and Roberts I have to think we can at least average 1.9 ppg until the end of the season

[Maguire]

How about 22, soon to be 23?

Better, but not as good as 28 about to become 29

Disagree

lolwut

Using this logic you think 40 games is a better guide to where we'll finish than 46?

Madness.

[Extended-Phenotype]

Bold Figure is Major Contributions per post

9383 Posts, 0 Major Contributions none every 9383 Posts 0 Appeal 0 Logic SNOWBALL

Consistent. And that’s even if you discount his first 7 posts.

[Snowball]

Good post, Ghost

Don't completely agree though, and there's a good reason.

Remember last year, we brought in Elwood?

I kept stats from the day he started and his influence was amazing.

Nobody queried which matches. It was arbitrary, matches Elwood started
and the result were plain to see.

Now if THIS season another "Elwood" had started Game 7, that's what we have here.


Instead of Elwood, we simply have the manager gradually pulling together the team after losing Long and Mills etc. He had to bring in Le Fondre and Gorks and we had that guy from Spurs. It took a few games to settle a new side in and get it slowly playing better and better.

or

For Elwood read Gorks.

He first played in Game 6 at Hull where we lost to a freakish goal 1-0

We lost the next to Watford 0-2

And then from game 3 of Gorks' stay with us, he has been a ROCK, and has got Pearce playing better

and we are now top of the form table over 22 games


Gorks has been with us for 24 games. Hard on him to expect him to change us instantaneously
but INCLUDING those initial two defeats (1-0 at Hull and 0-2 Home to Watford) we are:

League Games Since Gorkks Arrived

1 24 14 04 6 10 CS 37-26 +11 46 1.92 West Ham United
2 24 12 07 5 08 CS 43-22 +21 43 1.79 Birmingham City
3 24 11 10 3 09 CS 39-25 +14 43 1.79 Cardiff City
4 24 13 04 7 11 CS 26-19 +07 43 1.79 Hull City
5 24 12 05 7 10 CS 30-22 +08 41 1.71 Reading (78.66 game season)



I haven't done anything "strange". It's not like I've taken chunks of
games out of the middle. This is, as I say, like the Elwood effect
last year. Let's hope Connolly moves us up another notch.
If he does we'll go up.