BBC Predictor - End Of Season Predictions

[who are ya?]

SnowbaLOLLOL

[Snowball]

Spot the Difference
87 Repressed Royal No Comment
86 Chilli Pepper No Comment
86 Snowball "that's not optimistic, that's bloody ridiculous."
84 Royals Lad. No Comment
83 Harpers No Comment

A part of the whole - it might be ridiculous/optimistic to suggest Reading will get 86 points, but it's certainly that to predict we'll come top.

Chilli. I didn't "predict" anything, I GUESSED a few hundred scores,
or guesstimated them, or made a best judgement of them, call it what you like.

And thinking of RFC it's not exactly unlikely I might be biased!

It's hardly scientific or serious to predict an individual score even one game ahead,
but 11-12-13-14-15-16 games ahead is just silly. We might have injuries and suspensions,
or the other side might. or one side might have "blown" like Forest last year, and like Cardiff
often do... or one side may go on a Reading 2010-style run, W9 D2 L1 of their last 12.

I didn't KNOW that these guesses would result in RFC coming top
or second, or third. It just DID.

As it happens, I have been predicting us having a very good chance of around 82-83
and that I think West Ham will get less than 86 and that going into the last
day 4/5/6 clubs could still be in with a shout of automatic, maybe even top.

In Reading's case in particular, we COULD nick top if we won at West Ham and Birmingham and Southampton
and beat Blackpool, and otherwise just kept going around 1.9 ppg.

But we could lose all four and be then lucky to hang on for the POs.

That's why I think we have to "Make hay while the sun shines" and get some big results in early.





Incidentally Reading 2010-style run, W9 D2 L1 of their last 12.

If we W9 D2 Lose FIVE that's 80 points...

[chilipepper91]

Okay.

I think however, that the comment was made in lieu of Reading coming top, not because of their points total. And you pulled out only the points total, not the context of other teams.

I don't want this to turn into a 4-page argument, just consider that
a) Reading almost certainly won't come top
b) You are shot down more than most posters on here so don't worry your boots too much

[Snowball]

Okay.

I think however, that the comment was made in lieu of Reading coming top, not because of their points total. And you pulled out only the points total, not the context of other teams.

I don't want this to turn into a 4-page argument, just consider that
a) Reading almost certainly won't come top
b) You are shot down more than most posters on here so don't worry your boots too much

How RFC getting 86 is any more ridiculous than West Ham getting 93...

And the point is, we pick the results as we see them, and then see how the table pans out.
We don't (or shouldn't) think, "Oh I better give West Ham a couple more wins so they'll be top

I actually thought my results-picking would place us third.

[Snowball]

If I understand the Spread Betting correctly, these are the expected points according to the bookies



85 West Ham
82 Southampton
78 Cardiff
77 Birmingham
75 Reading
75 Blackpool
73 Middlesboro



84.0 85 85.5 West Ham

81.0 82 82.5 Southampton

76.5 77 78.0 Cardiff City

75.5 76 77.0 Birmingham

74.0 75 75.5 Reading

73.5 74 75.0 Blackpool

72.5 73 74.0 Middlesbrough

[SydenhamRoyal]

Fink Tank predicts the following (before Tuesday's games). Fink Tank has generally got Reading's points right, but overestimated position in the table

Team Name Pos Pts Exp Pos Exp Pts
West Ham 1 56 1 82.3
Southampton 2 55 2 81.7
Birmingham 3 50 3 80.8
Cardiff 4 50 4 76.1
Reading 7 48 5 74.5
Blackpool 5 49 6 74.3

[Snowball]

Interesting that they have West Ham winning it with just 82 points

This is close to my take, one of the lowest winning totals for a while
and wide-open going into the last game

For us to get 82 we need 31 points from 16 games = 1.9375 ppg

Over the last 12 we have averaged 2.25 ppg
Over the last 24 we have averaged 1.96 ppg

82 is clearly doable, but with only 16 games left, not much room for slip-ups


Should we beat Burnley and move to 54 points we would then need 28 points from 15 = 1.87 ppg

Of course, if Saints and West Ham are the likeliest top-two, a win-win, wind-draw or draw-draw at those grounds would be massive



But let's get past a very worrying game (Burnley) first

[YateleyRoyal]

Have West Ham top on 99, followed by Saints in second on 97.

Followed by Birmingham 93, Cardiff 92, us on 88 and Hull on 86.

A bit at that really.

[Snowball]

Have West Ham top on 99, followed by Saints in second on 97.

Followed by Birmingham 93, Cardiff 92, us on 88 and Hull on 86.

A bit at that really.

I think you might be right with that "shock!"

42 points from 16 games, wow! 2.625 ppg, the equivalent of a 121 point season

[The Rouge]

The trouble with these predictors is that you fill them out according to current form. No one could predict the form swings teams like Ipswich and Burnley have had.

[Snowball]

The trouble with these predictors is that you fill them out according to current form.

So how does the top six with 16 games to go correlate with the top-six after game 46?

I would say, very well.

There is often a team that "chokes" and sometimes one that comes out of the pack
but I suspect that 8/10 times the top 8 at game 30 contains the top 6 at game 46



[/quote]No one could predict the form swings teams like Ipswich and Burnley have had.[/quote]

I don't understand this statement. Burnley have a good squad and a good manager but were iffy
but have won 9 their last 14. It's not uncommon for sides to take a time to settle.

Ipswich seemed to have a good squad but a dodgy defence, (seems Ingi and Sonko weren't the answer!)
and Jewell has messed the squad around a fair bit, so again, they haven't yet fully gelled.

[Snowball]

The trouble with these predictors is that you fill them out according to current form.

So how does the top six with 16 games to go correlate with the top-six after game 46? I would say, very well.
There is often a team (EDIT: not so often, actually) that "chokes" and sometimes one that comes out of the pack
but I suspect that 8/10 times the top 8 at game 30 contains the top 6 at game 46

Here are the positions after 29-31 games and final positions

The table is very robust. I suspect last 12 game form (Games 18-30) would make these figures even more predictive.

Only three sides have done late surges.


Sunderland 7th-1st (but they had been on a long run from bottom-spot)
Reading 12th to 5th (P12 W9 D2 L1 , last 12)
Blackpool, a mini-surge from 10th to 6th)


14 28% Finished in the Same Place
11 22% Plus or Minus 1 Place
12 24% Plus or Minus 2 Places
05 10% Plus or Minus 3 Places
04 08% Plus or Minus 4 Places
01 01% Plus or Minus 5 Places
02 02% Plus or Minus 6 Places
02 02% Plus or Minus 7 Places

50% of top 8 teams finish within 1 places at Game 46 based on Game 30
74% of top 8 teams finish within 2 places at Game 46 based on Game 30
84% of top 8 teams finish within 3 places at Game 46 based on Game 30
92% of top 8 teams finish within 4 places at Game 46 based on Game 30

Columns are Game 30/31 Position, then final position

2010-11

1-1 QPR (Same)
4-2 Norwich (+2)
5-3 Swansea (-2)
3-4 Cardiff (-1)
12-5 Reading (+7)
2-6 Forest (-4)
6-7 Leeds (-1)


2009-10


1-1 Newcastle (Same)
2-2 WBA (Same)
3-3 Forest (Same)
4-4 Cardiff (Same
6-5 Leicester (-1)

10-6 Blackpool (+4)

5-7 Swansea (-2)
8-8 Sheffield United (Same)


2008-09

1-1 Wolves (Same)
3-2 Birmingham (+1)
5-3 Sheffield United (+2)
2-4 Reading (-2)
8-5 Burnley (+3)
6-6 Preston (Same)
4-7 Cardiff (-3)
9-8 Swansea (+1)

2007-08

1-1 WBA (Same)
4-2 Stoke (+2)
6-3 Hull (+3)
3-4 Bristol City (-1)
8-5 Palace (+3)
2-6 Watford (-4)
5-11 Charlton (FAIL) (-6)
7-8 Ipswich (-1)

2006-7

7-1 Sunderland (+6)
2-2 Birmingham (Same)
1-3 Derby (-2)
4-4 WBA (Same)
10-5 Wolves (+5)
5-6 Southampton (-1)
3-7 Preston (-4)
6-13 Cardiff (FAIL!) (-7)


2005-6

Top Six in Feb, Top Six at the end.

1-1 Reading (Same)
2-2 Sheffield United (Same)
4-3 Watford (+1)
6-4 Preston (+2)
3-5 Leeds (-2)
5-6 Palace (-1)

2004-05

3-1 Sunderland (+2)
2-2 Wigan (Same)
1-3 Ipswich (-2)
5-4 Derby (+1)
7-5 Preston (+2)
9-6 West Ham (-3)
4-7 Reading (-3)

[The Rouge]

e.g. if filling out now one would potentially have Ipswich winning a fair few as they have had some good results recently. If filling out a few weeks back (prior to their West Ham win) you would be forgiven for predicting they would win very few.

[Snowball]

e.g. if filling out now one would potentially have Ipswich winning a fair few as they have had some good results recently. If filling out a few weeks back (prior to their West Ham win) you would be forgiven for predicting they would win very few.

In terms of their results, yes, but they have a decent squad
and presumably brought players in in January, and the manager
has a good track record at this level

Shouldn't we expect him to turn it round?

I've been really surprised at how low they've been

[Royal With Cheese]

Just finished mine. Took ages with careful consideration to each teams assets, capbilities, management style, current injury situation to give me the optimum chance of being correct:

[Simon's Church]

I got the same^^^ but with a goal difference of +164.

Did it again with my extremely pessimistic hat on and got 78 points.

[melonhead]

[SydenhamRoyal]

Fink tank update (before Tuesday nights games) ...

Southampton 82.9
West Ham 81.8
Birmingham 80.2
Reading 77.1
Blackpool 75.8
Cardiff 75.5

Still think 82/83 not enough to win this year or get automatic promotion

[Snowball]

Bumped

[Snowball]

I just looked at us getting WWD next three, WHU losing at Leeds

and we were top two equal on 70 points....

That's be nice with 9 to go