The Snowball stat thread

[Simon's Church]

Three assists vs Bristol City
1 for Hunt for flicking the ball to Roberts
1 for Roberts for winning the penalty
another 1 for Roberts for taking the shot that was followed up for the goal

[Wycombe Royal]

Three assists vs Bristol City
1 for Hunt for flicking the ball to Roberts
1 for Roberts for winning the penalty
another 1 for Roberts for taking the shot that was followed up for the goal

and don't forget David James.......he deserves one as well.

[Snowball]

Carry on, children.

[melonhead]

is that the one where kenneth williams is a paedo?

[Ian Royal]

Three assists vs Bristol City
1 for Hunt for flicking the ball to Roberts
1 for Roberts for winning the penalty
another 1 for Roberts for taking the shot that was followed up for the goal

and don't forget David James.......he deserves one as well.

And whoever aimlessly punted it forward for Hunt to flick on. And McDermott, it was his idea afterall. And the wind, that definitely helped. And Roberts mum, without her he'd never have scored.

[JC]

If we are serious about auto, we have to win 4 out of our last 6 home games (I can see Pompey and Leeds being the 2 where we can drop points), and then also win away at Doncaster, Millwall, Barnsley and Peterborough. That would give us not less than 24 points on top of what we have now - 81 points.

The 10 year average for champions and runners up from this division are 94 points and 86.7 points respectively.

The range of points needed to secure 2nd spot in the last 10 years is from 79 to 92.

On that basis, 4 away games are going to decide our season; West Ham, Southampton, Brighton and Birmingham.

Given the scenario above, we would then need at least 6 points from those 4 games to get the average number of points needed for teams to finish 2nd - and then hope that one of West Ham or Saints fail to acheive more than that, and that no other teams (Birmingham/Cardiff/Blackpool) have the sort of finish we did last season.

Squeaky bum time............

Slight flaw in your logic here. I agree with your values of points for 2nd place in the last 10 years but to gain 2nd place would only require us to get 1 more point than 3rd place. On that basis the range becomes 76 to 87 with an average of 81. This is significantly less than the average of 86.7 that you have used and if everything else you say comes to pass then we would only need 1 point from those 4 games.
Looks a bit easier. As I said in another post the next 6 games assume a very high importance now.

[Ian Royal]

Well yes we could be bookies favourites but we still will NOT win the next 6.

Mm but didn't Burnley pick up 11 points in theIr 8 games prior to yesterday where Millwall picked up 5 in their 8 games prior. Millwall are better at home than they are away.

Portsmouth like I say will be fighting and won't want to lose, they'll make it tough and Leicester I maintain will be tough.

I agree, but I'll lmao at you if we do manage it.

[Maguire]

Three assists vs Bristol City
1 for Hunt for flicking the ball to Roberts
1 for Roberts for winning the penalty
another 1 for Roberts for taking the shot that was followed up for the goal

One to the ref for awarding the penalty and another for Selby Armstrong for giving Roberts his boots that morning.

No assists v Bristol City. Anyone trying to award Hunt an assist for a penalty that was missed which he didn't win anyway is a certifiable mental case.

[Extended-Phenotype]

is that the one where kenneth williams is a paedo?

Hee hee

[themadstad]

There's quite a few things to factor in for us making 2nd. We have teams behind us too.

To get to 85 points by season end we'd need to have averaged 2.025 points per game over the 40 games. Whilst we have pretty much that is last 26 what are the actual chances of maintaining that by another half. With the tough games in our run in chances aren't too great.

[Fox Talbot]

Research quotes 85% of penalties (not in penalty shoot-outs) scored.

Somebody somewhere must be scoring 140% to balance out Reading's efforts this season

[melonhead]

If we are serious about auto, we have to win 4 out of our last 6 home games (I can see Pompey and Leeds being the 2 where we can drop points), and then also win away at Doncaster, Millwall, Barnsley and Peterborough. That would give us not less than 24 points on top of what we have now - 81 points.

The 10 year average for champions and runners up from this division are 94 points and 86.7 points respectively.

The range of points needed to secure 2nd spot in the last 10 years is from 79 to 92.

On that basis, 4 away games are going to decide our season; West Ham, Southampton, Brighton and Birmingham.

Given the scenario above, we would then need at least 6 points from those 4 games to get the average number of points needed for teams to finish 2nd - and then hope that one of West Ham or Saints fail to acheive more than that, and that no other teams (Birmingham/Cardiff/Blackpool) have the sort of finish we did last season.

Squeaky bum time............

Slight flaw in your logic here. I agree with your values of points for 2nd place in the last 10 years but to gain 2nd place would only require us to get 1 more point than 3rd place. On that basis the range becomes 76 to 87 with an average of 81. This is significantly less than the average of 86.7 that you have used and if everything else you say comes to pass then we would only need 1 point from those 4 games.
Looks a bit easier. As I said in another post the next 6 games assume a very high importance now.

dont even need an extra point, 1 more goal scored, or one less conceded would do it

[Ian Herring]

Is an assist a pass?

[Ian Royal]

Is an assist a pass?

an assist is any player that passes the ball via his feet, head, chest to the scoring player, resulting in a goal for the shooting player and an assist for the passing player.

Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_an_as ... z1nbfqbew9

In association football, an assist is a contribution by a player which helps to score a goal.
Most commonly, an assist is credited to a player for passing or crossing the ball to the scorer. It may also be awarded to a player whose shot rebounds (off a defender, goalkeeper or goalpost) to a teammate who scores; or to a player who wins a penalty kick for another player to convert. An attacking player may be awarded an assist for contributing to an own goal.[1] Players cannot be awarded an assist for a goal they themselves score. Usually one but a maximum of two players can be awarded assists per goal.

Note to snowball... it doesn't explicitely state the penalty has to be scored, because it's obvious to anyone with three braincells to rub together.

[Snowball]

If you are going to talk about brain cells, you could at least learn how to spell.

[Tommy Youlden's Ears]

When I was an itty bitty salesman, two dozen years ago, I was taught that if you didn't know the answer to a statty question, the answer was either 85% (if big was needed) or 15%. That way, the rest of us in the room knew we were dealing in made up bollix and went into cover mode.

Which also means that ever since I have never trusted 85% to the right answer to anything.

Obviously sometimes it will be...and now I'm all grown up, and the world is clean I never deal in lies or damned lies...but I wonder if Snowball learned the same lesson many years ago? Hence the "85% of all penalties..." line.

Anyway, my research (my brief, utterly web based, and not to be trusted at all research) tells me two things.

In the Bundesliga over 16 years, 76% of penalties were scored. (and we know about 'them' n 'us'...)

And that keepers' jersey colour matters. Red top, save 44% of penalties. Green top, concede 74%.

I'll get me coat...

[Snowball]

THIS

In association football, an assist is a contribution by a player which helps to score a goal.
Most commonly, an assist is credited to a player for passing or crossing the ball to the scorer. It may also be awarded to a player whose shot rebounds (off a defender, goalkeeper or goalpost) to a teammate who scores; or to a player who wins a penalty kick for another player to convert. An attacking player may be awarded an assist for contributing to an own goal.[1] Players cannot be awarded an assist for a goal they themselves score. Usually one but a maximum of two players can be awarded assists per goal.



contains a contradiction

It says a player gets an assist for winning a pen, but then argues that if he TAKES the pen and scores, he then doesn't get the assist.

Unless, of course, it means winning a penalty is in and of itself, an assist.


and, to repeat, I award a "major contribution" for WINNING a penalty
irrespective of what happens WITH the penalty.


I expect the reason to be beyond a lot of people, and that feels fine,
especially when the usual suspects keep rattling their empty vessels
and making lots of noise.

[Snowball]

And that keepers' jersey colour matters. Red top, save 44% of penalties. Green top, concede 74%.

I'll get me coat...

Amazingly, the colour of the tops has nothing to do with Man Utd, Liverpool etc
(which sounds like the obvious reason)

The tests were done outside major games (weakening the truth or otherwise of the experiment)
and (allegedly) the differences were due to red/orange being for danger, and "creating extra anxiety"
in the penalty-taker...

[Ian Royal]

There is no contradiction there. Given it's pretty clear no one agrees with your choice, and most think it makes you an idiot, why do you keep sharing?

[SydenhamRoyal]

Current Table

1 33 +29 62 3-3-0 Rating=825 82 Predicted Points Southampton
2 32 +19 61 3-2-1 Rating=837 84 Predicted Points West Ham
3 32 +14 57 5-0-1 Rating=840 80 Predicted Points Reading
4 33 +13 55 4-1-1 Rating=832 76 Predicted Points Blackpool
5 32 +21 54 3-2-1 Rating=833 76 Predicted Points Birmingham
6 32 +11 53 2-1-3 Rating=821 75 Predicted Points Cardiff C[/quote]


Just to throw in the Fink Tank predictions after the weekend:

Team Name Pos Pts Exp Pos Exp Pts Rating
Southampton 1 62 1 84.7 84
West Ham 2 61 2 83.2 67
Birmingham 5 54 3 79.2 100
Reading 3 57 4 79 76
Cardiff 6 53 5 75.6 68
Blackpool 4 55 6 75.4 67
Middlesboro 8 53 7 73.6 68

And before anyone says it, YES I KNOW, Reading won't get 79 point 2 points. But its looking like we'll play Cardiff in the play-offs and our last game will be against Birmingham. Would be fab if our last game IS against Birmingham and avoid the play-offs ...