The Snowball stat thread

[Snowball]

And, as pointed out there are at least 20 dates since September 17th, which are MORE favourable...

[MmmMonsterMunch]

And, as pointed out there are at least 20 dates since September 17th, which are MORE favourable...

I'm not talking about points further on in time though - I am specifically asking why you started in the middle of a month rather than the start - to which you gave me a pretty naff answer. Oddly enough the Sep game you are choosing to ignore was a defeat. Funny that!

Whatever we are bloody good regardless.

I'm not picking a fight!

[Snowball]

There are 25 Dates since September 17th
which show Reading FC's form in a better light


We have been averaging a 100-point season or higher since October 22nd.



All the figures in red indicate where we have been amassing points
at a level HIGHER than the record-breaking 106 Season (2.30 ppg)


2.14 ppg - 098 Points Season Equivalent - 29 Games Since - Sep-17
2.11 ppg - 097 Points Season Equivalent - 28 Games Since - Sep-24
2.15 - ppg 099 Points Season Equivalent - 27 Games Since - Sep-27 <<<

2.12 ppg - 098 Points Season Equivalent - 26 Games Since - Oct-01
2.16 ppg - 099 Points Season Equivalent - 25 Games Since - Oct-15 <<<
2.12 ppg - 098 Points Season Equivalent - 24 Games Since - Oct-18

2.17 ppg - 100 Points Season Equivalent - 23 Games Since - Oct-22 <<<
2.23 ppg - 103 Points Season Equivalent - 22 Games Since - Oct-29 <<<

2.29 ppg - 105 Points Season Equivalent - 21 Games Since - Nov-01 <<<
2.40 ppg - 110 Points Season Equivalent - 20 Games Since - Nov-06 <<<
2.37 ppg - 109 Points Season Equivalent - 19 Games Since - Nov-19 <<<
2.50 ppg - 115 Points Season Equivalent - 18 Games Since - Nov-26 <<<
2.47 ppg - 114 Points Season Equivalent - 17 Games Since - Nov-29 <<<

2.44 ppg - 112 Points Season Equivalent - 16 Games Since - Dec-03 <<<
2.60 ppg - 120 Points Season Equivalent - 15 Games Since - Dec-10 <<<
2.57 ppg - 118 Points Season Equivalent - 14 Games Since - Dec-17 <<<
2.54 ppg - 117 Points Season Equivalent - 13 Games Since - Dec-26 <<<
2.50 ppg - 115 Points Season Equivalent - 12 Games Since - Dec-31 <<<

2.45 ppg - 113 Points Season Equivalent - 11 Games Since - Jan-02 <<<
2.70 ppg - 124 Points Season Equivalent - 10 Games Since - Jan-14 <<<
2.67 ppg - 123 Points Season Equivalent - 09 Games Since - Jan-21 <<<
3.00 ppg - 138 Points Season Equivalent - 08 Games Since - Jan-28 <<<

3.00 ppg - 138 Points Season Equivalent - 07 Games Since - Feb-11 <<<
3.00 ppg - 138 Points Season Equivalent - 06 Games Since - Feb-14 <<<
3.00 ppg - 138 Points Season Equivalent - 05 Games Since - Feb-17 <<<
3.00 ppg - 138 Points Season Equivalent - 04 Games Since - Feb-25 <<<

3.00 ppg - 138 Points Season Equivalent - 03 Games Since - Mar-03 <<<
3.00 ppg - 138 Points Season Equivalent - 02 Games Since - Mar-06 <<<
3.00 ppg - 138 Points Season Equivalent - 01 Games Since - Mar-10 <<<

[Snowball]

Not that this isn't an old idea...

Only our bad run of defeats early in the season currently stops us being
contenders for the top-two spots.


Table since the 5 consecutive defeats (beginning with Doncaster game)

1 16 9 3 4 8 22-13 +09 30 1.88 ppg West Ham United <<<<
2 16 9 3 4 6 22-16 +06 30 1.88 ppg Hull City
3 15 8 4 3 4 29-15 +14 28 1.87 ppg Southampton <<<<
4 16 8 5 3 7 22-14 +08 29 1.81 ppg Reading

5 16 8 4 4 5 25-19 +06 28 1.75 ppg Leeds United<<<<
6 16 7 6 3 6 27-19 +08 27 1.69 ppg Cardiff City <<<<
7 16 7 6 3 8 16-14 +02 27 1.69 ppg Middlesbrough <<<<
8 14 6 4 4 4 18-15 +03 22 1.57 ppg Birmingham City <<<<

9 16 7 3 6 3 26-26 +00 24 1.50 ppg Barnsley

Note how close we are to the top of the form table despite having played 6/8 of the other top clubs in this run

[SydenhamRoyal]

Not that this isn't an old idea...

Only our bad run of defeats early in the season currently stops us being
contenders for the top-two spots.


Table since the 5 consecutive defeats (beginning with Doncaster game)

1 16 9 3 4 8 22-13 +09 30 1.88 ppg West Ham United <<<<
2 16 9 3 4 6 22-16 +06 30 1.88 ppg Hull City
3 15 8 4 3 4 29-15 +14 28 1.87 ppg Southampton <<<<
4 16 8 5 3 7 22-14 +08 29 1.81 ppg Reading

5 16 8 4 4 5 25-19 +06 28 1.75 ppg Leeds United<<<<
6 16 7 6 3 6 27-19 +08 27 1.69 ppg Cardiff City <<<<
7 16 7 6 3 8 16-14 +02 27 1.69 ppg Middlesbrough <<<<
8 14 6 4 4 4 18-15 +03 22 1.57 ppg Birmingham City <<<<

9 16 7 3 6 3 26-26 +00 24 1.50 ppg Barnsley

Note how close we are to the top of the form table despite having played 6/8 of the other top clubs in this run

I think it is around about game 22 where we have been top of the post first 6 games table - and stayed there. I'll leave it to some random other (??) to confirm this

[Snowball]

I think it is around about game 22 where we have been top of the post first 6 games table - and stayed there. I'll leave it to some random other (??) to confirm this

Do you mean "since game 22"?

And in that case do you mean games 17-22, 18-23 etc?

[Snowball]

6 Game Form

04 Game 06 (First 6 Games)
06 Game 07 To Doncaster Home
04 Game 08
07 Game 09
08 Game 10
11 Game 11
12 Game 12
10 Game 13
10 Game 14
07 Game 15
09 Game 16
06 Game 17
08 Game 18
10 Game 19
09 Game 20
12 Game 21 2 ppg (Birmingham 1-0, Cardiff defeat, Ipswich 3-2, Peterboro 3-2, Blackpool Defeat,West Ham 3-0)
12 Game 22 2 ppg
15 Game 23
15 Game 24
12 Game 25
15 Game 26
12 Game 27
12 Game 28
12 Game 29
12 Game 30
15 Game 31
15 Game 32
18 Game 33
18 Game 34
18 Game 35

[M-U-R-T-Y]

We have conceded 8 goals in 16 games

[Snowball]

7 goals in the last 15 League Games


and 3 of those in 1, (Cardiff away)

(and that doesn't count as it's an international)


4 goals conceded in the other 14 games



H 3-0 West Ham
A 1-0 Leeds
H 3-0 Brighton
H 1-0 Ipswich
A 1-3 Cardiff ...........
A 2-1 .................. Watford (Own Goal)
H 0-1 Hull .............(Freak Goal)
H 1-0 Bristol
H 2-0 Coventry
A 1-0 Derby
H 1-0 Burnley
A 2-0 Middlesbrough
A 2-1 Millwall
H 1-0 Portsmouth
H 3-1 Leicester ............. (90th Minute Goal)


W12 L2 24-7 (Including Internationals)

[cmonurz]

Must. not. post.

[StroudRoyal]

Hi all

When one looks at the ppg trend over the whole season so far it is clear that there is a significant improvement in ppg from game 7 onwards. If you see this on a graph (sorry, can't post image) then ppg is a practically flat line from game 1 to game 6 (1 win, 1 draw and then 4 defeats). After game 6 it really takes off and the flat line becomes an almost continuous line upwards at 45 degrees angle. Try it in excel and see for yourselves. This indicates very clearly that the first 6 games trend is significantly different from the trend for the following 29 games. It is therefore reasonable and acceptable to point out that something significant happened from game 7 onwards compared to the first 6 - this in indisputable. Now, one can then speculate why there is this significant difference and put forward theories as to why e.g. new players coming in (Gorkks for example), a more settled team (not checked this out but worth a look) etc etc. However, whatever the reason, it is clear that something has changed from game 7 onwards. This is the point that Snowball is making and is why he has excluded the first 6 games in his trend analysis. This is not an arbitrary choice but is based on a sound statistical analysis.

[Mr Angry]

All teams (with the exception of the 106 team) have at least one bad run during any season, it just so happens that ours was at the start of the season, and there are no guarantees that we won't have another before the end of the season.

I'm sure that there is a Brighton version of Snowball out there on t'internet stating catergorically that - if you take out their rubbish run up to the New Year that THEY are the best team - statistically - in the Division. And so on.

That having been said, results-wise we HAVE been superb since that Donny game back on Sept 17th (typically, a game I chose to miss as I was preparing for a trip to Hong Kong!!) something that NOBODY predicted at the time.....

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

So what happened from Nov 5th onwards, as up to that point were were only on 1.2PPG, a 55pt season.

[StroudRoyal]

Another way of looking at the trend - (but still illustrates the point) is to look at each 6 game sequence from the start of the season.

games 1-6 - 4 points
games 7-12 - 12 points
games 13-18 - 8 points
games 19-24 - 15 points
games 25-30 - 12 points
games 31-35 - 15 points (only 5 games)

Games 1-6 were by far the worst sequence of games. There was a blip between games 13-18 when we (only) got 8 points from the 6 games but this was still twice as many points as the first 6 games. I'm not making any predictions or attempting to offer any explanations. I'm merely supporting the notion that separating the first 6 games from the following 29 is a reasonable thing to do.

[cmonurz]

Hi all

When one looks at the ppg trend over the whole season so far it is clear that there is a significant improvement in ppg from game 7 onwards. If you see this on a graph (sorry, can't post image) then ppg is a practically flat line from game 1 to game 6 (1 win, 1 draw and then 4 defeats). After game 6 it really takes off and the flat line becomes an almost continuous line upwards at 45 degrees angle. Try it in excel and see for yourselves. This indicates very clearly that the first 6 games trend is significantly different from the trend for the following 29 games. It is therefore reasonable and acceptable to point out that something significant happened from game 7 onwards compared to the first 6 - this in indisputable. Now, one can then speculate why there is this significant difference and put forward theories as to why e.g. new players coming in (Gorkks for example), a more settled team (not checked this out but worth a look) etc etc. However, whatever the reason, it is clear that something has changed from game 7 onwards. This is the point that Snowball is making and is why he has excluded the first 6 games in his trend analysis. This is not an arbitrary choice but is based on a sound statistical analysis.

This is a reasonable post, and many see and accept the logic of Snowball's approach, whilst also challenging it.

Snowball actually provides an example of how this approach is flawed in the last two pages. Highlighting our good defensive run, he says ‘7 goals conceded in 15 games – but 3 were against Cardiff, so it’s 4 goals conceded in the other 14 games’.

If Snowball wants to take the Cardiff aberration out of our goals conceded data (admittedly only to highlight our otherwise spectacular run in defence), and he has made other manipulations to illustrate other very valid points, then it is reasonable for some to question how valid it is to compare our run of games that eliminates our patch of poor form, with the same run of games for other teams that does not necessarily ignore their bad runs.

[Snowball]

Must. not. post.

BUT. YOU. DID.

[cmonurz]

Must. not. post.

BUT. YOU. DID.

Yeah, I'm allowed to, and it was reasoned. Respond if you like.

[Maguire]

However, whatever the reason, it is clear that something has changed from game 7 onwards.

No it isn't.

What changed between Game 6 and Game 7? Nothing. No new players joined that I can recall. Same manager. Same ground. Same pitch.

The reason the former is excluded and the latter is not is for one simple reason - we won one and not the other. If you eliminate unfavourable results based on nothing more than the fact they're unfavourable then of course you'll paint a better picture.

[Snowball]

All teams (with the exception of the 106 team) have at least one bad run during any season, it just so happens that ours was at the start of the season, and there are no guarantees that we won't have another before the end of the season.

Taking out the beg=inning of the season is NOT the same as taking out an arbitrary 5-6-10 game period
in the middle of the season. (Incidentally READING had a bad patch in the middle of this run.)


For the UMPTEENTH time... We started with Shane Long and Manset, with Khumalo in defence
and in the first six games played Griffin (who broke down injured twice), Harte, Gunnarson, Cummings, Mills

Also Elwood returned from a summer marriage and was very poor by his standards.

It was only after Gorkss came in (Game 5 where we lost to a single freak goal) and Mills-Cummings started
together (Game 7) that we started to put some results together. We were still poor and were dire at Bristol
(Game but somehow stole the win.

If you look at the team sheets it was when we started to settle into a new side (Karacan dropped only
playing 108 minutes of the first 5 games in the start of this run)

I'm sure that there is a Brighton version of Snowball out there on t'internet stating catergorically that - if you
take out their rubbish run up to the New Year that THEY are the best team - statistically - in the Division. And so on.

Taking out a run in the middle isn't the same.

[Maguire]

I'm sure that there is a Brighton version of Snowball out there on t'internet stating catergorically that - if you
take out their rubbish run up to the New Year that THEY are the best team - statistically - in the Division. And so on.

Taking out a run in the middle isn't the same.

Not even if one of their players got married during that period?!