by Snowball » 12 Mar 2012 17:24
by MmmMonsterMunch » 12 Mar 2012 17:28
Snowball And, as pointed out there are at least 20 dates since September 17th, which are MORE favourable...
by Snowball » 12 Mar 2012 18:05
by Snowball » 12 Mar 2012 18:09
Snowball Only our bad run of defeats early in the season currently stops us being
contenders for the top-two spots.
Table since the 5 consecutive defeats (beginning with Doncaster game)
1 16 9 3 4 8 22-13 +09 30 1.88 ppg West Ham United <<<<
2 16 9 3 4 6 22-16 +06 30 1.88 ppg Hull City
3 15 8 4 3 4 29-15 +14 28 1.87 ppg Southampton <<<<
4 16 8 5 3 7 22-14 +08 29 1.81 ppg Reading
5 16 8 4 4 5 25-19 +06 28 1.75 ppg Leeds United<<<<
6 16 7 6 3 6 27-19 +08 27 1.69 ppg Cardiff City <<<<
7 16 7 6 3 8 16-14 +02 27 1.69 ppg Middlesbrough <<<<
8 14 6 4 4 4 18-15 +03 22 1.57 ppg Birmingham City <<<<
9 16 7 3 6 3 26-26 +00 24 1.50 ppg Barnsley
Note how close we are to the top of the form table despite having played 6/8 of the other top clubs in this run
by SydenhamRoyal » 12 Mar 2012 18:16
Snowball Not that this isn't an old idea...Snowball Only our bad run of defeats early in the season currently stops us being
contenders for the top-two spots.
Table since the 5 consecutive defeats (beginning with Doncaster game)
1 16 9 3 4 8 22-13 +09 30 1.88 ppg West Ham United <<<<
2 16 9 3 4 6 22-16 +06 30 1.88 ppg Hull City
3 15 8 4 3 4 29-15 +14 28 1.87 ppg Southampton <<<<
4 16 8 5 3 7 22-14 +08 29 1.81 ppg Reading
5 16 8 4 4 5 25-19 +06 28 1.75 ppg Leeds United<<<<
6 16 7 6 3 6 27-19 +08 27 1.69 ppg Cardiff City <<<<
7 16 7 6 3 8 16-14 +02 27 1.69 ppg Middlesbrough <<<<
8 14 6 4 4 4 18-15 +03 22 1.57 ppg Birmingham City <<<<
9 16 7 3 6 3 26-26 +00 24 1.50 ppg Barnsley
Note how close we are to the top of the form table despite having played 6/8 of the other top clubs in this run
by Snowball » 12 Mar 2012 18:23
SydenhamRoyal
I think it is around about game 22 where we have been top of the post first 6 games table - and stayed there. I'll leave it to some random other (??) to confirm this
by Snowball » 12 Mar 2012 18:33
by M-U-R-T-Y » 13 Mar 2012 01:29
by Snowball » 13 Mar 2012 06:22
by cmonurz » 13 Mar 2012 08:53
by StroudRoyal » 13 Mar 2012 09:05
by Mr Angry » 13 Mar 2012 09:07
by Harpers So Solid Crew » 13 Mar 2012 09:09
by StroudRoyal » 13 Mar 2012 09:30
by cmonurz » 13 Mar 2012 09:31
StroudRoyal Hi all
When one looks at the ppg trend over the whole season so far it is clear that there is a significant improvement in ppg from game 7 onwards. If you see this on a graph (sorry, can't post image) then ppg is a practically flat line from game 1 to game 6 (1 win, 1 draw and then 4 defeats). After game 6 it really takes off and the flat line becomes an almost continuous line upwards at 45 degrees angle. Try it in excel and see for yourselves. This indicates very clearly that the first 6 games trend is significantly different from the trend for the following 29 games. It is therefore reasonable and acceptable to point out that something significant happened from game 7 onwards compared to the first 6 - this in indisputable. Now, one can then speculate why there is this significant difference and put forward theories as to why e.g. new players coming in (Gorkks for example), a more settled team (not checked this out but worth a look) etc etc. However, whatever the reason, it is clear that something has changed from game 7 onwards. This is the point that Snowball is making and is why he has excluded the first 6 games in his trend analysis. This is not an arbitrary choice but is based on a sound statistical analysis.
by Snowball » 13 Mar 2012 09:39
cmonurz Must. not. post.
by cmonurz » 13 Mar 2012 09:48
Snowballcmonurz Must. not. post.
BUT. YOU. DID.
by Maguire » 13 Mar 2012 09:49
However, whatever the reason, it is clear that something has changed from game 7 onwards.
by Snowball » 13 Mar 2012 09:50
Mr Angry All teams (with the exception of the 106 team) have at least one bad run during any season, it just so happens that ours was at the start of the season, and there are no guarantees that we won't have another before the end of the season.
I'm sure that there is a Brighton version of Snowball out there on t'internet stating catergorically that - if you
take out their rubbish run up to the New Year that THEY are the best team - statistically - in the Division. And so on.
by Maguire » 13 Mar 2012 09:53
SnowballI'm sure that there is a Brighton version of Snowball out there on t'internet stating catergorically that - if you
take out their rubbish run up to the New Year that THEY are the best team - statistically - in the Division. And so on.
Taking out a run in the middle isn't the same.
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