The Snowball stat thread

[Snowball]

Snowball can you please just calm my nerves and somehow use stats to say we're not going to screw this up

Tough one, Wimb


But this might help

Form Since September 17th

1 34 22-06-06 16 Clean Sheets 55-28 +27 72 2.12 ppg = 98 Point Season READING FC
3 34 16-11-07 13 Clean Sheets 48-35 +13 59 1.74 ppg = 80 Point Season West Ham

Based on the last 34 games ( a reasonable test, I'd've thought) we are on to win 13 points from the next 6 games
while West Ham are on schedule for ten points.

So even if we dropped to 1.5 points per game and "only" ended up on 85 points West Ham would need 13 points, probably 14 from 6 games (2.33 ppg)

That means they have to have a REMARKABLE up-turn in form, AND we have to near-implode.

[Snowball]

Or look at Last Six games (our worst run for a while!)

01 6 4-2-0 3 1 09-3 +6 14 2.33 ppg Watford
02 6 4-1-1 1 0 16-8 +8 13 2.17 ppg Reading
03 6 4-1-1 3 1 10-6 +4 13 2.17 ppg Southampton

15 6 1-4-1 1 0 09-9 +0 07 1.17 ppg West Ham United

So we are 4 points clear, with a better GD AND averaging winning a full point per game more than West Ham.

If this does turn round it'll be a biggie

[Snowball]

Or games in 2012

1 16 12-1-3 29-14 +15 37 2.31 ppg Reading

2 16 8-7-1 26-13 +13 31 1.94 ppg Brighton
3 16 9-4-3 25-13 +12 31 1.94 ppg Southampton
4 17 8-6-3 33-18 +15 30 1.76 ppg Birmingham
5 16 8-4-4 33-25 +08 28 1.75 ppg Blackpool

6 16 7-7-2 24-19 +05 28 1.75 ppg West Ham


So it's hardly a "blip" in West Ham's case. They've been under-achieving for a long time

[Snowball]

Last 12 Games

1 12 10-1-1 6 Clean Sheets - 0 Failed to Score 25-09 +16 31 Points - 2.58 ppg Reading

7 12 04-7-1 3 Clean Sheets - 1 Failed to Score 19-13 +06 19 Points - 1.58 ppg West Ham


So we are better than West Ham over 6, 9, 12, 16, 34 and 40 Games
and their form is GETTING WORSE while we continue to improve.

[Snowball]

Right now RFC are virtually 6/1 on Betfair (59/10)

IF they lose today at Blackpool and we win there we'd be a point clear.

Not likely, but 6-1 is decent odds

Our odds since that post less than 24 hours ago have been slashed by two-thirds to just 2-1

[Snowball]

West Ham Stats since December 2011:


1-2 H Burnley
0-3 A Reading
1-0 H Barnsley
1-1 A Birmingham
1-2 A Derby
1-0 H Coventry
1-0 A Portsmouth
2-1 H Forest
1-5 A Ipswich
2-1 H Millwall
1-1 H Southamtpon
A 4-1 Blackpool
H 0-0 Palace
A 2-0 Cardiff
H 1-1 Watford
H 1-1 Doncaster
A 1-1 Leeds
H 1-1 Middlesbrough
A 2-2 Burnley
A 2-0 Peterboro
H 2-4 Reading

P21 W8 D8 L5 28-27 1.52 ppg = 70 Point season equivalent



The idea of them WWWWWW for their last six games is a close second to Moses parting the Red Sea

[Snowball]

Posted 17th December

Only our bad run of defeats early in the season currently stops us being
contenders for the top-two spots.


Table since the 5 consecutive defeats (beginning with Doncaster game)

1 16 9 3 4 8 22-13 +09 30 1.88 ppg West Ham United <<<<
2 16 9 3 4 6 22-16 +06 30 1.88 ppg Hull City
3 15 8 4 3 4 29-15 +14 28 1.87 ppg Southampton <<<<
4 16 8 5 3 7 22-14 +08 29 1.81 ppg Reading

5 16 8 4 4 5 25-19 +06 28 1.75 ppg Leeds United<<<<
6 16 7 6 3 6 27-19 +08 27 1.69 ppg Cardiff City <<<<
7 16 7 6 3 8 16-14 +02 27 1.69 ppg Middlesbrough <<<<
8 14 6 4 4 4 18-15 +03 22 1.57 ppg Birmingham City <<<<

9 16 7 3 6 3 26-26 +00 24 1.50 ppg Barnsley

Note how close we are to the top of the form table despite having played 6/8 of the other top clubs in this run

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Posted this on the other thread:

3 wins will do it. Given West Ham's poor form, even if we were generous & gave them an average of 2 ppg for the last 6 games, 9 pts from us is then enough to take 2nd by 1 point.

[Snowball]

We are going to have to be on top form

Our opponents are all doing well

3-2-1 2 Clean Sheets 13-06 +07 11 1.83 Away Form Forest
3-2-1 5 Clean Sheets 07-02 +05 11 1.83 Away Form Leeds
0-5-1 2 Clean Sheets 06-07 -01 05 0.83 Away Form Palace

4-2-0 4 Clean Sheets 12-02 +10 14 2.33 Home Form Saints
3-3-0 3 Clean Sheets 12-05 +07 12 2.00 Home Form Brighton
2-3-1 3 Clean Sheets 08-05 +03 09 1.50 Home Form Birmingham


Overall P36 W15 D17 L4 19 Clean Sheets 58-27 GD +31 1.72 ppg


Forest need points to ensure safety
Saints need to beat us to make certain of the title
Brighton need points to make the POs
Birmingham need points to make the POs


On the plus side, despite their recent record, Palace look to have "blown" as do Leeds

[Snowball]

Incidentally Snowy - do you still think the Reading v Brum game will be a decider for an auto spot between the 2 sides?

It may well be the game that decides if we are champions

[Gordons Cumming]

I think past form is irrelevant now as it's who can keep their nerve the best in the next 6 games.

It's squeeky bum time for sure......

[Snowball]

After West Ham

13 Games, 10 Goals 12 Assists for Roberts-Hunt Partnership

Between them Roberts/Hunt score a goal or get an assist every 44.4 Minutes

05 Goals 06 Assists Hunt
05 Goals 06 Assists Roberts

976 Minutes played together 5 Goals each and 6 assists each = 22 Major Contributions

195 Minutes per Goal Hunt
195 Minutes per Goal Roberts

163 Minutes per Assist Hunt
163 Minutes per Assist Roberts

098 Minutes per Goal (Hunt or Roberts)
082 Minutes per Assist (Hunt or Roberts)




Roberts has also partnered Alf and Church as they've scored.

[Maguire]

Did you give Roberts an assist for Hunt's goal on Saturday?

Cheers for breaking down the recent form - if any Reading fan needs reassurance we've got a brilliant chance of getting out of this league then they should look at the form (12 games is a nice number) and realise we'd have to genuinely tail off to not go up.

I backed us to win on Saturday and i'd do the same again this Friday.

[Snowball]

I think past form is irrelevant now as it's who can keep their nerve the best in the next 6 games.

It's squeeky bum time for sure......

"Form" may be irrelevant, except it gives a genuine measure of a team's quality
upon which we add bottle or nerve or heart (and the opposition quality)


We have had THREE teams this season.

Team A - The first-six games mess.
Team B - The team before Roberts
Team C - The team since Roberts


Team A Games 01-06 Played 06 Won 01 Drew 01 Lost 04 05-08 GD -03 0.67 ppg = 031 Point Season

Team B Games 07-27 Played 21 Won 11 Drew 05 Lost 05 29-19 GD +10 1.81 ppg = 083 Point Season

Team C Games 28-40 Played 13 Won 11 Drew 01 Lost 01 26-09 GD +17 2.62 ppg = 121 Point Season

[Snowball]

Did you give Roberts an assist for Hunt's goal on Saturday?

Yes, even though maybe a defender touched it last.

It was Roberts "bulldozer" that made the chance.


Which means I may be underestimating Roberts' assists

Cheers for breaking down the recent form - if any Reading fan needs reassurance we've got a brilliant chance of getting out of this league then they should look at the form (12 games is a nice number) and realise we'd have to genuinely tail off to not go up.

Yer welcome

[Snowball]

Thought I would post this separately to isolate Jason's effect.

Played 13 Won 11 Drew 1 Lost 1 26-09 GD +17 2.62 ppg = 121 Point Season


That's our "recent form" INCLUDING a sloppy draw at Doncaster and a loss at Peterboro






A 121 Point Season

[Barry the bird boggler]

Certainly going to have to break our run of recent of crap form in home games against Forest and Leeds

last 3 v Forest

2009 - L 0-1
2010 - D 0-0
2011 - D 1-1

last 3 v Leeds

2011 - D 0-0
2006 - D 1-1
2005 - D 1-1

[Snowball]

Certainly going to have to break our run of recent of crap form in home games against Forest and Leeds

last 3 v Forest

2009 - L 0-1
2010 - D 0-0
2011 - D 1-1

last 3 v Leeds

2011 - D 1-1
2006 - D 1-1
2005 - D 1-1

November
Sat 27 15:00 H Leeds United FLC D 0-0 23,677

[Gordons Cumming]

In my experience Reading FC have bottled it in the past and still retain that ability.............I remain cautious.

Just look at the stats....

( i know I said this at the latter stages of the record breaking season )

The fat lady is clearing her throat.

[Barry the bird boggler]

November
Sat 27 15:00 H Leeds United FLC D 0-0 23,677

Thanks I knew I shouldn't have used cut & paste, now corrected!