The Snowball stat thread

[Snowball]

Hey Snowball..can you post your updated stats for our performance against top half teams at some point? I'm guessing it looks bloody good now..

Better than bloody good, it's AWESOME!! Almost two points per game!!





Games v Top-Half Teams



01 20 12-3-5 10 Clean Sheets 4 FTS 30-15 +15 39 Points - 1.95 - Reading

02 20 10-4-6 07 Clean Sheets 5 FTS 32-24 +08 34 Points - 1.70 - Leicester City
03 20 08-7-5 07 Clean Sheets 4 FTS 31-22 +09 31 Points - 1.55 - Southampton
04 19 08-5-6 05 Clean Sheets 3 FTS 33-25 +08 29 Points - 1.53 - West Ham United
05 20 08-5-7 06 Clean Sheets 6 FTS 22-23 -01 29 Points - 1.45 - Burnley
06 21 08-4-9 07 Clean Sheets 9 FTS 20-20 +00 28 Points - 1.33 - Hull City
07 21 07-7-7 06 Clean Sheets 4 FTS 26-27 -01 28 Points - 1.33 - Cardiff City
08 20 06-6-8 06 Clean Sheets 9 FTS 19-28 -09 24 Points - 1.20 - Middlesbrough
09 21 06-7-8 04 Clean Sheets 4 FTS 31-37 -06 25 Points - 1.19 - Blackpool
10 20 05-8-7 06 Clean Sheets 5 FTS 27-27 +00 23 Points - 1.15 - Birmingham City

What you do not mention is that it is exactly the same against the bottom half at 1.95 ppg giving an overall 1.95 ppg!
So it makes no difference who we play

I wasn't asked that question, so I didn't answer it.

[Snowball]

Hey Snowball..can you post your updated stats for our performance against top half teams at some point? I'm guessing it looks bloody good now..

Better than bloody good, it's AWESOME!! Almost two points per game!!





Games v Top-Half Teams



01 20 12-3-5 10 Clean Sheets 4 FTS 30-15 +15 39 Points - 1.95 - Reading

02 20 10-4-6 07 Clean Sheets 5 FTS 32-24 +08 34 Points - 1.70 - Leicester City
03 20 08-7-5 07 Clean Sheets 4 FTS 31-22 +09 31 Points - 1.55 - Southampton
04 19 08-5-6 05 Clean Sheets 3 FTS 33-25 +08 29 Points - 1.53 - West Ham United
05 20 08-5-7 06 Clean Sheets 6 FTS 22-23 -01 29 Points - 1.45 - Burnley
06 21 08-4-9 07 Clean Sheets 9 FTS 20-20 +00 28 Points - 1.33 - Hull City
07 21 07-7-7 06 Clean Sheets 4 FTS 26-27 -01 28 Points - 1.33 - Cardiff City
08 20 06-6-8 06 Clean Sheets 9 FTS 19-28 -09 24 Points - 1.20 - Middlesbrough
09 21 06-7-8 04 Clean Sheets 4 FTS 31-37 -06 25 Points - 1.19 - Blackpool
10 20 05-8-7 06 Clean Sheets 5 FTS 27-27 +00 23 Points - 1.15 - Birmingham City

Or to put it another way, we f*cked up against the teams in the bottom half

Actually NO, we didn't

And as someone else pointed out, the following statistic is amazing

Our record v top and bottom sides is virtually identical

1 Reading 20 12-3-5 10 Clean Sheets - - 4 Fail to Score - 30-15 GD +15 39 1.95 ppg Against Top Half
5 Reading 22 13-4-5 09 Clean Sheets - - 4 Fail to Score - 33-21 GD +12 43 1.95 ppg Against Bottom Half

[Snowball]

I don't know if "against top-half" stats are made against the CURRENT positions
or positions at the time of playing. I presume it's current.

But our bad start to the season involved four current-bottom-half sides D L L L 3-7

and two top sides WL 2-1

Bottom
H 2-2 Millwall
A 0-1 Portsmouth
H 1-2 Barnsley
H 0-2 Watford

Top

A 2-0 Leicester
A 0-1 Hull

[Snowball]

Our record v top and bottom sides is virtually identical (40 Games)

1 Reading 20 12-3-5 10 Clean Sheets - - 4 Fail to Score - 30-15 GD +15 39 1.95 ppg Against Top Half
5 Reading 22 13-4-5 09 Clean Sheets - - 4 Fail to Score - 33-21 GD +12 43 1.95 ppg Against Bottom Half

Remove the first 6 games

13-3-2 30-14 Bottom Sides
11-3-4 31-20 Top Sides

Bottom
H 2-2 Millwall
A 0-1 Portsmouth
H 1-2 Barnsley
H 0-2 Watford

Top

A 2-0 Leicester
A 0-1 Hull

[SydenhamRoyal]

Our record v top and bottom sides is virtually identical (40 Games)

1 Reading 20 12-3-5 10 Clean Sheets - - 4 Fail to Score - 30-15 GD +15 39 1.95 ppg Against Top Half
5 Reading 22 13-4-5 09 Clean Sheets - - 4 Fail to Score - 33-21 GD +12 43 1.95 ppg Against Bottom Half

Remove the first 6 games

13-3-2 30-14 Bottom Sides
11-3-4 31-20 Top Sides

Bottom
H 2-2 Millwall
A 0-1 Portsmouth
H 1-2 Barnsley
H 0-2 Watford

Top

A 2-0 Leicester
A 0-1 Hull

It's all just a little selective Mr SB! If we are 6 points clear of the chasing pack on results against the top half, then we are 6 points behind when it comes to results against the bottom half. And, not that I am being selective in any way, but by chasing pack I mean Southampton. Hence my comment

[Snowball]

Tidying Up

As pointed out before, over the 42 games, our record v top and bottom sides is virtually identical:




RFC versus Top/Bottom Clubs (including the first 6 games)


20 12-3-05 10 Clean Sheets - - 4 Fail to Score - 30-15 GD +15 39 Points @ 1.95 ppg Against Top Half
22 13-4-05 09 Clean Sheets - - 4 Fail to Score - 33-21 GD +12 43 Points @ 1.95 ppg Against Bottom Half

42 25-7-10 19 Clean Sheets - - 8 Fail to Score - 63-36 GD +27 82 Points @ 1.95 ppg Against All Teams



At first glance, we appear to do equally well against top or bottom half sides

However, as I've maintained all season, our "real" team began to get it together
after the first six games, and when you look at the statistics without the first six
you get quite a different picture.




RFC versus Top/Bottom Clubs (removing the first 6 games)


18 11-3-4 09 Clean Sheets - - 3 Fail to Score - 28-14 GD +14 36 Points @ 2.00 ppg Against Top Half
18 13-3-2 09 Clean Sheets - - 2 Fail to Score - 30-14 GD +16 42 Points @ 2.33 ppg Against Bottom Half
36 24-6-6 18 Clean Sheets - - 5 Fail to Score - 58-28 GD +30 78 Points @ 2.17 ppg Against All Teams


So, once the side was "settled" we have as should be expected, done better against lowlier sides

2.33 ppg versus 2.0 ppg equates to an extra 15 points per season


Since Game 7 we have lost to Cardiff, Cardiff, Blackpool, Hull (top half sides) and Peterboro/Forest (Bottom Half)

but PRIOR to Game 7 we lost to Hull (top-half) Portsmouth, Watford, Barnsley (bottom)

[Snowball]

It's all just a little selective Mr SB! If we are 6 points clear of the chasing pack on results against the top half, then we are 6 points behind when it comes to results against the bottom half. And, not that I am being selective in any way, but by chasing pack I mean Southampton. Hence my comment

You've lost me Syd

Over all 42 games we are THE SAME ppg against top-half and bottom half,
so how can we say we oxf*rd up against lowly sides?

And, as I point out, for the 36 games from Games 7-42 we are 2.33 ppg versus bottom clubs, 2.00 versus top


That looks pretty conclusive to me. We HAVEN'T "screwed up against lowly clubs"

[Snowball]

It's all just a little selective Mr SB! If we are 6 points clear of the chasing pack on results against the top half, then we are 6 points behind when it comes to results against the bottom half. And, not that I am being selective in any way, but by chasing pack I mean Southampton. Hence my comment

Ah, I see what you're saying.

What you mean is Reading FC are consistent, 1.95 v 1.95 (42 Games) or 2.33 v 2.00 (36 Games)

but other clubs are flat-track bullies, racking up points against poor sides but failing against stiffer opposition

I still can't see that as "failing". Instead I see it as other clubs filling their boots




HOWEVER, take a look at RFC from Sept 17th
in comparison with the other top teams and you'll see we do better than everybody!

In other words, those first 6 games distort the true picture. What I've been saying for six months!!

0 18 13-3-2 09 Clean Sheets - - 2 Fail to Score - 30-14 GD +16 42 Points @ 2.33 ppg Reading Since Sept 17th <<<<<<
1 22 16-3-3 10 Clean Sheets - - 3 Fail to Score - 45-18 GD +27 51 Points @ 2.32 ppg Southampton
2 22 14-5-3 07 Clean Sheets - - 1 Fail to Score - 45-20 GD +25 47 Points @ 2.14 ppg Birmingham City
3 23 13-8-2 11 Clean Sheets - - 4 Fail to Score - 37-20 GD +17 47 Points @ 2.04 ppg West Ham United
4 21 12-6-3 06 Clean Sheets - - 2 Fail to Score - 41-20 GD +21 42 Points @ 2.00 ppg Blackpool
5 22 13-4-5 09 Clean Sheets - - 4 Fail to Score - 33-21 GD +12 43 Points @ 1.95 ppg Reading (42 Games)

[SydenhamRoyal]

It's all just a little selective Mr SB! If we are 6 points clear of the chasing pack on results against the top half, then we are 6 points behind when it comes to results against the bottom half. And, not that I am being selective in any way, but by chasing pack I mean Southampton. Hence my comment

Ah, I see what you're saying.

What you mean is Reading FC are consistent, 1.95 v 1.95 (42 Games) or 2.33 v 2.00 (36 Games)

but other clubs are flat-track bullies, racking up points against poor sides but failing against stiffer opposition

I still can't see that as "failing". Instead I see it as other clubs filling their boots




HOWEVER, take a look at RFC from Sept 17th
in comparison with the other top teams and you'll see we do better than everybody!

In other words, those first 6 games distort the true picture. What I've been saying for six months!!

0 18 13-3-2 09 Clean Sheets - - 2 Fail to Score - 30-14 GD +16 42 Points @ 2.33 ppg Reading Since Sept 17th <<<<<<
1 22 16-3-3 10 Clean Sheets - - 3 Fail to Score - 45-18 GD +27 51 Points @ 2.32 ppg Southampton
2 22 14-5-3 07 Clean Sheets - - 1 Fail to Score - 45-20 GD +25 47 Points @ 2.14 ppg Birmingham City
3 23 13-8-2 11 Clean Sheets - - 4 Fail to Score - 37-20 GD +17 47 Points @ 2.04 ppg West Ham United
4 21 12-6-3 06 Clean Sheets - - 2 Fail to Score - 41-20 GD +21 42 Points @ 2.00 ppg Blackpool
5 22 13-4-5 09 Clean Sheets - - 4 Fail to Score - 33-21 GD +12 43 Points @ 1.95 ppg Reading (42 Games)

Not disputing any of that Mr SB - since game 21 I have been saying we are top after the first 6 (if you ignore the Palace non goal), and we have got better and better; we all know that already. On the top half issue, whilst I note the consistency I also note: top against the top half, and only 5th against the bottom half. This is a comparative failing

[79Royal]

104 pages of stats is lovely and thank you giving me the opportunity to utilise my time so effectively at work.

However, what I'd really like to know is are we going to get promoted please?

[The Rouge]

Rougeometer

[PlasticRoyale]

104 pages of stats is lovely and thank you giving me the opportunity to utilise my time so effectively at work.

However, what I'd really like to know is are we going to get promoted please?

IF we finish in the TOP TWO then we WILL get promoted

BUT, other teams MIGHT finish there instead so we'll be in the play-offs

We MIGHT win the play-offs in which case we WILL go up otherwise we will NOT

[79Royal]

104 pages of stats is lovely and thank you giving me the opportunity to utilise my time so effectively at work.

However, what I'd really like to know is are we going to get promoted please?

IF we finish in the TOP TWO then we WILL get promoted

BUT, other teams MIGHT finish there instead so we'll be in the play-offs

We MIGHT win the play-offs in which case we WILL go up otherwise we will NOT

Got any stats handy to back that up?

[PlasticRoyale]

104 pages of stats is lovely and thank you giving me the opportunity to utilise my time so effectively at work.

However, what I'd really like to know is are we going to get promoted please?

IF we finish in the TOP TWO then we WILL get promoted

BUT, other teams MIGHT finish there instead so we'll be in the play-offs

We MIGHT win the play-offs in which case we WILL go up otherwise we will NOT

Got any stats handy to back that up?

This was the case in six of the last six seasons. Can't be bothered to go further back than that.

[SydenhamRoyal]

:arrow: Rougeometer

No, that does not tell us. It merely gives a % chance. Tho' that being said, I am reasonably optimistic having read your last Rougeometer output

[Snowball]

Ah, school holidays....

[Snowball]

Southampton V Reading

West Ham V Brighton


===================================================

Bristol City V West Ham
Peterborough V Southampton
Reading V Nottm Forest


Bristol City need points to avoid the drop

Mathematically, Forest can still go down but are virtually safe. [b]In great form.

Should be a good footballing game at Boro

==================================================

Reading V Crystal Palace[/b]
Middlesbrough V Southampton
Leicester V West Ham


Palace have a good away record but are 2-3-6 away versus top-half and have faded

Boro have imploded

Leicester are improving and still have a chance of the POs. Should be a cracker

=====================================================

Birmingham V Reading
Southampton V Coventry
West Ham V Hull

Birmingham are a class team IMO and had they not been in Europe they'd be top two

Coventry are desperate for points. Better form recently but mostly at home

A few weeks ago we might have fancied Hull to do us a favour, but they seem to have "blown" Last 6 away W1-D2-L3

[Snowball]

Ages ago I divided the season up into three thirds, wondering how we would
do and where we might be going into the odd (46th) game at Birmingham.

I said back then that I thought the last game would be a decider

Here are the season's thirds (with the third third not quite completed)



18 Points Games 01-15
33 Points Games 16-30
31 Points Games 31-42 (Possible 40 Points in 15)


What is quite interesting to me is the fact that the middle third is so strong

[Extended-Phenotype]

Using your 105 pages of stats, please provide a prediction of tonights result.

Thanks.

[Snowball]

Using your 105 pages of stats, please provide a prediction of tonights result.

Thanks.

NO.

Stats aren't about predicting single results, but trends and likelihoods.

Read Moneyball. When it gets to POs and Cup Finals, stats don't apply.


Predicting points over ten games, that's fine, which is why we could predict we'd get 85-86 or more
but though vagaries within games average out, in any one game a side can play well and lose or be outplayed
and steal a win... but over a series of games, the stats will out.

No throw in injuries, nerves, "the occasion"...