Premiership 2012/13

[Barney]

We are a massively different club from ANY years in our history. Assuming we get the investment we are all craving for, my belief is that we will be OK. Indeed, if we can extend the stadium and have 2-3 years of attracting good quality players then I feel we might just extend our stay a little longer than our previous 2-year spell in the top flight.
The Premier League has insane wages, insane transfer fees, and is littered with cheating diving money-grabbing individuals.
Thankfully, our club isn't like that.

Get a good start next season, and I am hoping for a finish of around 14th-15th. That in itself will be a success. Second season, we will need to push on. Maybe extend the MadStad to 30,000 or so. Try and compete with the Stokes of the Premiership. Possibly, try and establish ourselves as a top 12 or so club. Big ask, but that must be our aim.

I am not going to compare the club to the early 1970s when I witnessed 5 years on the trot in the 4th division, but these are currently VERY good times. Enjoy them. Roll on August 18th. Bring 'em on. Let's give it a go.

[Ian Royal]

Norwich are my current favourites for 2SS over Swansea

Second season syndrome does not strike that often - just 6 times in the history of the Premier League have a team been relegated in their second season in the top flight, out of the roughly 60 teams that have been relegated in that time

Pretty meaningless stat if you don't first exclude those who got relegated in their first season!

I think its 26 out of 61 relegated in their first season, almost half! 1 in 6 isn't bad odds.

Obviously we know that basically, one of us, Saints and West Ham / Blackpool are going down. That's one of the reasons I want Blackpool up, I don't think they'd have much chance of surviving.

[Snowball]

[

I think its 26 out of 61 relegated in their first season, almost half! 1 in 6 isn't bad odds.

26/61 = 42.62% Come straight back down?
06/35 = 17.14% Come down in their second season?

32/61 = 52.46% Fail to reach a third season?

[Snowball]

Last ten seasons

Underlined teams have stayed up this year and their figures can still improve

Bolded teams ended up in League 1


2000-01 3 sides promoted, 3 stayed up. Stay 11-10-10 Years . . . Fulham, Blackburn, Bolton
2001-02 3 sides promoted, 2 stayed up. Stay 10-03-01 Years . . . Man City, Birmingham, WBA
2002-03 3 sides promoted, 1 stayed up. Stay 06-01-01 Years . . . Portsmouth, Leicester, Wolves
2003-04 3 sides promoted, 1 stayed up. Stay 02-01-01 Years . . . WBA (17th), Norwich, Palace
2004-05 3 sides promoted, 2 stayed up. Stay 06-04-01 Years . . . Wigan, West Ham, Sunderland
2005-06 3 sides promoted, 1 stayed up. Stay 02-01-01 Years . . . READING, Sheffield Utd, Watford
2006-07 3 sides promoted, 1 stayed up. Stay 04-01-01 Years . . . Sunderland, Birmingham, Derby
2007-08 3 sides promoted, 2 stayed up. Stay 04-02-01 Years . . . Stoke, Hull, WBA
2008-09 3 sides promoted, 1 stayed up. Stay 03-02-01 Years . . . Wolves, Birmingham, Burnley
2009-10 3 sides promoted, 2 stayed up. Stay 02-02-01 Years . . . Newcastle, West Brom, Blackpool
2010-11 3 sides promoted...


How many promoted teams stayed up for at least a second season?

3 1/10
2 4/10
1 5/10
0 0/10

Of 30 sides promoted

13 were relegated first season
06 were relegated second season
02 were relegated third season

02 lasted 6 seasons
02 lasted 10 seasons
01 lasted 10 seasons (and still survives = Man City)
01 lasted 11 seasons and still there

If you call six seasons "established" then 20% manage it. Fulham, Man City, Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan and Portsmouth (Now League 1)


Years Surviving

11 X
10 XXX
09
08
07
06 XX
05
04
03 XX (2) 21/30 last 3 seasons or less
02 XXXXXX (6 Relegated second season) 19 Last 1 or 2 Seasons
01 XXXXXXXXXXXXX 13 Relegated after 1 Season

[Blue & White Soup]

QPR having survived this year will be strong enough to stay up. Wigan without Martinez will be doomed and Villa are a sinking ship! Second season syndrome will hit Norwich like a brick!
My prediction...

18:Blackpool/Norwich
19:Wigan
20:Villa

[Gordons Cumming]

QPR having survived this year will be strong enough to stay up. Wigan without Martinez will be doomed and Villa are a sinking ship! Second season syndrome will hit Norwich like a brick!
My prediction...

18:Blackpool/Norwich
19:Wigan
20:Villa

I don't think Blackpool are coming up.....

[Reading4eva]

Heres my theory...

Taking out the top 5 who will all be safe (and by Top 5 I would say they are Man City, Man Utd, Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea) and the two also-rans (Newcastle & Everton), it looks rather interesting.

Liverpool - Everyone expects them in the top 4, and dont expect them to be in any danger. However poor management has pushed them further from the top teams, and now sit as a mediocre club, much like Aston Villa under Martin O'Neill. I dont expect them to go down, but if the merry-go-round continues, I would put money on them being in serious trouble within 5 years.

Reading - We seem to be making all the right noises, and I think could suprise a few people. We've got one of the most stable infrastructures in this Premier League with regards to our manager, and one of the best work ethics as a team (apart from Manchester United, Arsenal and Everton I think we have the longest serving manager). It depends who we buy. We already have a decent side, it just depends who else adds to it. If we get Gylfi, I wouldnt be suprised at a top 10 finish.

Fulham, Stoke, Sunderland, West Brom, Wigan - All have enough to survive. Wigan have shown in the past month they are decent enough, and seem to escape each year. West Brom seem to have a fixed team, but are most likely of the five to be dragged in. Sunderland have a good manager, Stoke have the passion and Fulham are midtable at best, but would be an absolute terrible season to go down.

The rest are a real mix

Southampton - Great first season back in the Championship, and look a decent side. If they in the bottom three in January, they run the risk of losing Lallana and Lambert, and without them they might as well consign themselves back to the Championship.

Swansea - Decent passing side, but would be worked out.

Norwich - In real danger. If there Manager goes, I cant see them staying up.

Aston Villa - Been on the decline since Martin O'Neill left and the squad looks weak, with little quality.

Blackpool - I think they will win the Playoff Final 2-1 but I cant see them staying up. They dont have the quality this time they had last time round, and although they are a well respected team, and I'd like to see Holloway do well, being a YoYo club could be where they are best suited. I think there fans will be happy with that anyway.

QPR - A right mix, disseettled, with a poor manager and a bad attitude squad.

So my bottom 3 is Aston Villa, QPR and Blackpool

[leww_rfc]

Man City, Man United, Arsenal, Spurs, Newcastle, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool (Top 8 ) - no change there, even Liverpool. Just too strong.

Middle 7 - Fulham, Stoke, Reading, Swansea, Southampton, Sunderland, Wigan

Bottom 5 - Norwich, QPR, Blackpool/West Ham, Villa, West Brom

[SpaghettiHoop]

Second season syndrome has already started. Holt is too good for Norwich and their manager may go to a big club. Oh dear!

[royalp-we]

Man City, Man United, Arsenal, Spurs, Newcastle, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool (Top 8 ) - no change there, even Liverpool. Just too strong.

Middle 7 - Fulham, Stoke, Reading, Swansea, Southampton, Sunderland, Wigan

Bottom 5 - Norwich, QPR, Blackpool/West Ham, Villa, West Brom

Very similar opinion to my own, although I'd swap Villa for Wigan. I honestly believe the Villa hierarchy will iradicate the problems theyve been under in the past two years. And in Wigan, although they played well towards the end of the season, if Martinez leaves, they will finally fall through the trap door.

I reckon we will yet again have a slow start (prolly Citeh A then Man Ure A opening week) then make ourselves steady, a decent addition in the Jan window to replace a player we've all been groaning about at the MadStad and slating on HNA? and we'll finish a very respectable 11th place.

Champions: Citeh (gonna flex their financial muscle once more this summer)

Royals: 11th

Relegation: Qpr, Wigan, Norwich,

[SydenhamRoyal]

The bookies (Paddy Power) have us as out and out favourites to go down (evens) followed by Southampton (11-10)

[Stuka]

The bookies (Paddy Power) have us as out and out favourites to go down (evens) followed by Southampton (11-10)

I suspect they automatically just put the promoted sides in this position at this early stage just to open to book.

[Snowball]

Interesting that they think the chances of staying up
are precisely the opposite of the finishing positions this year

[Stranded]

Interesting that they think the chances of staying up
are precisely the opposite of the finishing positions this year

Most likely because we are seen as the smallest fry of the promoted clubs, and Soton and West Ham have more top flight history than us.

[Chaney]

The bookies (Paddy Power) have us as out and out favourites to go down (evens) followed by Southampton (11-10)

so what price west ham?

[Avon Royal]

The bookies (Paddy Power) have us as out and out favourites to go down (evens) followed by Southampton (11-10)

The current squad is about evens to go down.

If we add wisely though, the odds will change.

[Ian Royal]

Seems fairly sensible for the bookies to me. Saints and West Ham were a cut above the rest all season, whereas we had a phenominal second half having been rather mediocre to start. We also played pretty functional football and don't have much in the way of exciting names. Our top scorer was a back up player who got 12.

Certainly from the outside looking in, we look easily the weakest, especially with the doubt over the takeover. Saints are a club with huge momentum, the "best" Championship striker and a bigger tradition than us. West Ham have Fat Sam, a bunch of PL names and are the media's darlings.

[Forbury Lion]

Wigan - If Martinez goes

[Snowball]

11/10 - 9/4 (ie "Probably from these 5"

Reading
Southampton
Wigan
Norwich
West Ham
Swansea

4-1 to 6-1 ("Maybe 1 of these will go down")

West Brom
QPR
Villa
Stoke


9-1 Sunderland (Not saying they will, but probably the best-value bet)

12-1 Fulham

The rest big odds, bookies this saying not a chance


Fun bet, and great odds would be Liverpool to implode.

Won't happen but 250-1 is brilliant

[blueroyals]

Anywhere taking bets against us getting relegated?