Sorry Platy, for my last input on this aside....
all very fair Winch! FWIW
winchester_royal
Good question, I'd argue it's because many clubs do take the short term view in doing all they can to survive, and hence are in the weaker position of not having planned for the eventuality of the championship. Therefore financially they may be under pressure to sell players, or have a squad full of big timers who believe themselves to be too good for the level.
Yes and no. While you do have the Hulls, Leicesters and Boltons that spend big with no eye on the future, you also have teams like Blackpool, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Watford who all spend little and seemed to be building for the future.
I distinctly remember Watford buying the likes of Hoskins and Williamson from Rotherham and thinking 'hmmm good long term planning' when they were adrift at the bottom. Obviously they never made it back and nor have a lot of other clubs who have taken the money and run. I appreciate that each club's circumstances are different but just because you look to have strengthened for the future doesn't mean they'll pan out that way. Reading also tried to similarly boost the squad in our last Prem/Parachute cycle, but the likes of Alan Bennett and Dave Mooney never really flopped despite decent hype.
winchester_royal I'm afraid I can't agree with that last point. Especially with this squad of players. Every game in the premiership is against a quality team, with players better than the ones we have. Each game is a struggle, and it will take an excellent performance combined with a bit of luck in each of the remaining games for us to get close to 36 points. We got to around the 90 point mark last season despite having a shocking start and a very average squad. We're in a much better position to compete from the start next year, and with a manager who's proved very successful in the league over 3 seasons along with a chairman that is willing to give him enough money to keep his original squad and add a couple of new players (as well as blooding a few of the excellent youngsters we have) I can see us coming straight back up.
They are quality teams but Brian McDermott will be the first to admit his side have choked in games when they should have got a result. Southampton, Sunderland, Wigan, Norwich, Newcastle. Just a handful of games from the top of my head where we should have done a lot, lot better. Equally, consider the games last season where in your heart of hearts you knew we were a bit lucky to come away with things. Bristol City, we were shockingly bad and got all 3, Brighton at the end of the season, even Southampton and West Ham both could and should have buried us in those key promotion deciders. Very, very few teams will ever go on the sort of run that saw us win the title.
Likewise when any team is relegated you're going to have huge uncertainties all summer as you wait for the PL vultures to pick their targets. It only takes 1 or 2 bad results before the window shuts and suddenly a club decides it wants a striker and gambles on Le Fondre, who may have spent the whole summer playing as our number 10. Or as happened deadline day 2010, Sigurdsson goes on deadline day and our whole formation/system comes undone.
winchester_royal I wouldn't say any of us are assuming we'll come back up, it will take a lot of careful planning and management to ensure we're in the best position to. However I am certainly of the belief that to secure our status in the long run we may well be better off taking a couple of years in the championship and building a young, talented squad that will compete in the Premiership (ala Coppell's 106 team) rather than hanging on in the league for a couple of years and then going down with a number of older players on big money. Obviously I'm taking the extreme view there, and if we stay up this season we could end up building something special. But it won't be as easy, and the money we'd need to invest to give us a good chance of survival would put us at a significant risk if we went down. Also, the only players likely to want to come to us this January with premier league experience will be the older ones on their decline. Not exactly players that we're going to be able to build around over the next 5 years.
It's a nice principle but again we're at the mercy of bigger teams with bigger budgets and who can tempt players away twice a year. Certainly Norwich, Swansea and Southampton all benefited from taking a step back, but it doesn't always work. Coppell's 106 team had the beauty of flying really low under the footballing radar, a team that 3 years before had been in the third tier and who'd rarely entered the mind of the bigger clubs. Players like Harper, Shorey and Murty came through and established themselves in that third tier and how Sidwell stayed I'm not sure! Not to mention getting underrated jems like Glen Little, Kevin Doyle and Marcus Hahnemann and it's almost impossible to see us getting such luck again.
Take the point about the sums needed to survive but I think the right loan signings could bring the right balance between risk and reward.
winchester_royal The only players I can see PL clubs coming in for if we went down are Karacan and Pearce. Possibly Mariappa. I don't think we have much to worry about in that respect. And if we do have to sell them due to them wanting out at least it will be on a sound financial footing, giving us the capability to invest all of the money back into the team.
I do understand the frustration of many. It may look like a missed opportunity this season. I do however believe the club has a long term vision and yes, ideally they'd like to stay up this season, and I believe they have done all they can to make us competitive without derailing that vision.
As mentioned above it's hard to know exactly who'll be off, no idea who other scouts rate and don't rate! The sentiment of the last point is right, however just like 2008 I get the feeling that one £3-4m midfielder could just have made the difference this summer and that Brian's gambled on Guthrie producing and Jem staying fit. To leave Ledge and Tabb as the backups was a foolish gamble and like 08 it looks as if it'll be the undoing of us