Magic Number to Survive Relegation

[creative_username_1]

can we still win the title?

[Sydneyroyal]

Could someone explain in detail the above post? (Please use plain English.)

All you need to know is I think 35 points Is what Reading need to stay up - I'll keep it simple in future -sorry

[Millsy]

Why isn't there a pole.. No pole, and it's not even worth my effort..

Jak sie masz!

[Silver Fox]

can we still win the title?

Yes, As Man U are still not safe from relegation (their magic number, safety-wise, is currently 9)

[Royal Biscuitman]

1 Philip Parkinson

[redscot]

Forgetting the magic number, what is the safety number? Meaning the number that guarantees safety. This must be high at present time, in the 50s I would assume. This number gets less as the season draws out.

Football365.co.uk has a "safety number", but it comes into play later in the season.

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Forgetting the magic number, what is the safety number? Meaning the number that guarantees safety. This must be high at present time, in the 50s I would assume. This number gets less as the season draws out.

Football365.co.uk has a "safety number", but it comes into play later in the season.

At the moment it stands at 66 to guarantee safety. (Based on Villa, QPR & wigan picking up max points for the remaining 15 games.

I've not factored in that they play each other as I couldn't be arsed but you get the gist.

[Optimist]

40 is still the aim imo. After the West Brom game, if we won all remaining home games and lost all away games, we would finish with exactly 40 points. The win at Newcastle now means we can afford a draw or two at home, taking the pressure off slightly.

[Ian Royal]

Forgetting the magic number, what is the safety number? Meaning the number that guarantees safety. This must be high at present time, in the 50s I would assume. This number gets less as the season draws out.

Football365.co.uk has a "safety number", but it comes into play later in the season.

Villa can get 65 if they win all their games. No idea what that does to the rest of the teams. I was going to try and work out what that number was, but with 15 games to go, it'd take hours, so I jacked it in at 39 points and about 32 games for 17th after about 15 minutes.

[Silver Fox]

As Villa and Newcastle play next week our magic number is 45, win all our remaining games and we're safe

[redscot]

I think you taking figures out of the air here. The magic number is not 45 but whatever number that guarantees we stay up. Finding that number out is not easy at this stage. You can use past seasons as a guide, but that does not guarantee anything. At the moment all teams can win the league and all can be regulated.
So this thread should die until there are 6-8 games left....

[Silver Fox]

I think all teams are already regulated

and see my earlier post regarding the diffrence between the magic number and a magic number

[MmmMonsterMunch]

The magic number / number to guarantee safety is high right now because there are 15 games left. This will decrease each week.

Let’s assume for the sake of argument that none of the bottom 4 Villa, QPR, Wigan & Reading play each other.

(Yes I know this is not true)

All 4 can get another 45 points if they win all their games.

QPR currently on 15, can get 45 therefore max = 60
Reading currently on 19, can get 45 therefore max = 64
Wigan currently on 19, can get 45 therefore max = 64
Villa currently on 20, can get 45 therefore max = 65

Therefore as at today, our magic number to guarantee finishing above 3 others is 66.

Kind of pointless doing it this early as we all know it’s not going to be 66.

And we can't get 66!!

[Silver Fox]

Now we're getting somewhere. although I'd have a magic number representing points required

Put simply you can't really have a magic number if you are currently in the bottom 3, so your magic number is the points available

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Now we're getting somewhere. although I'd have a magic number representing points required

Put simply you can't really have a magic number if you are currently in the bottom 3, so your magic number is the points available

I could do it but I just can't be fcuked sorry!

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Now we're getting somewhere. although I'd have a magic number representing points required

Put simply you can't really have a magic number if you are currently in the bottom 3, so your magic number is the points available

When we beat Chelsea next week & remove ourselves from the bottom 3, we shall re-visit this topic

[Silver Fox]

Thing is, it's not even that hard, people keep going on about common opponents, it doesn't matter really because as time goes on you just reduce your magic number accordingly

We are the current barometer of magic numberness, if any club wants to know their magic number it's 65-p, where p is their current points total, this is reduced by any points they gain or we drop. It will only change when we start our inexorable rise up the table and they have to match against whoeve is then 18th (unless 19th or 20th has games in hand and a higher possible total points total)

See, easy

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Thing is, it's not even that hard, people keep going on about common opponents, it doesn't matter really because as time goes on you just reduce your magic number accordingly

We are the current barometer of magic numberness, if any club wants to know their magic number it's 65-p, where p is their current points total, this is reduced by any points they gain or we drop. It will only change when we start our inexorable rise up the table and they have to match against whoeve is then 18th (unless 19th or 20th has games in hand and a higher possible total points total)

See, easy

I can't say I find the concept hard to grasp. It's pretty fcuking obvious TBF!

[Silver Fox]

Unfortunately you seem to be the exception to the rule though!

[MmmMonsterMunch]

On a side note, people keep saying it's going to only be 35 to stay up this season.

I actually don't agree at all - everyone down there is picking up points & to say that 3 teams will only get a max of 34 points is being far too optimistic IMO.

I can see it going to the final day & 1 perhaps even 2 of the 3 going on GD. I think Reading, QPR, Wigan, Saints, Norwich, Newcastle, Fulham etc will all regularly pick up points. The only ones I can envisage dropping like a stone is Villa.