What's Adkins going to say after the Arsenal debacle

[Maguire]

You mean we had better goalscorers than our opponents?

Yeah, I agree we were better too.

Even Lambert's goal was a deflection at St Mary's so really we could've won 3-0

[TheSaintlee]

you were far more clinical with your chances, that is for sure
but it was obvious that unless you changed the way you played then an immediate returen was inevitable

[Maguire]

you were far more clinical with your chances, that is for sure
but it was obvious that unless you changed the way you played then an immediate returen was inevitable

As mentioned ad infinitum elsewhere, our failure to successfully acquire and assimilate new signings into the first team has cost us. Gunter, McCleary, Guthrie and latterly Carrico, Blackman, and Akpan. Only Pogrebnyak and Mariappa have made it, and even then formers scoring chances are limited by our tactics.

Saints signed Rodriguez, Ramirez, Clyne, and Yoshida (?) who I think have all played a large part in the season (?)

[Mike Hunt]

you were far more clinical with your chances, that is for sure
but it was obvious that unless you changed the way you played then an immediate returen was inevitable

tbf, a lot of people echoed these sentiments in the summer.

[Man Friday]

We've only been "well beaten" twice, the second occasion being on Saturday. But, yes, we've been outplayed in every match except one (Vs Sunderland).

[royalsteve]

" We move on " ?

"This is a good club" repeat 10 times

[melonhead]

As a saints fan, your run last season was amazing.

but just from watching highlights and the game at St Marys
I predicted that you would be immediately relegated and put money on it

your style was very different to ours. Many games against the top 6-8 teams in the NPC (it seemed) you defended well, had far less chances than your opponents, got away with Championship standard finishing and took the few chances on target you had.

it worked well for you, congrats

but in the prem, playing like that would see you get well beaten....which you have

adkins will give you a different style than last season, that is for sure

champione
champione
ole
ole
ole

[melonhead]

A draw in Southampton and we'd've been below Saints. Yes I'm aware of the result, but IMO it was a game
that Saints could rightly think they were unlucky not to win, never mind draw.

They had 59% possession, 19 Shots to our 10, 12 shots on target to our 4, 7 corners to our 2.

massive lol at that.

[Ian Royal]

A draw in Southampton and we'd've been below Saints. Yes I'm aware of the result, but IMO it was a game
that Saints could rightly think they were unlucky not to win, never mind draw.

They had 59% possession, 19 Shots to our 10, 12 shots on target to our 4, 7 corners to our 2.

massive lol at that.

You would expect to win 8/10 with those stats though. Although you'd expect t lose 10/10 with the eventual scoreline.

[melonhead]

no, i wouldnt, because having watched football, i realise that possession means nothing, that passing it endlessly across your back 4 gets you nowhere, and you can hoof as many balls over the bar you like, or spoon as many easy looping shots straight to a keeper as you like, but its not going to win you any football games

[Snowball]

no, i wouldnt, because having watched football, i realise that possession means nothing, that passing it endlessly across your back 4 gets you nowhere, and you can hoof as many balls over the bar you like, or spoon as many easy looping shots straight to a keeper as you like, but its not going to win you any football games

Swansea's tactics, Liverpool's yes, maybe, but Saints' possession last season wasn't from knocking around the back four.


There are exceptions where sides with horrible possession stats pinch wins but I'd guess the correlation between possession and points is a strong one.

[Snowball]

It's .67 in the Prem (http://forzainterforums.com/showthread. ... orrelation)


Possession as a crude measure is poor, however, because sides like Swansea rack up the per-cents by knocking it around the back four.

Another site http://www.bitterandblue.com/2012/7/14/ ... ion-part-2

Shows that Swansea had terrible points per percent possession (exactly what we'd think as a lot of their possession is across the defence)

What obviously matters is possession in the opponent's half or final third


Quote


The above data is only a one year, 380 game study and there are risks of small sample size effects here. But it is what it is, a 380 game look at what effect possession has on simple stats like shots for, shots on target, win % and points (goals as a fun bonus).

The effect is relatively clear. I speak generally here, not exactly, and I believe that the more possession a team has the more shots it is likely to have, that in itself leads to more shots on target.

The less possession a team has the more shots and shots on target against are conceded.

We then extend the possession link and say the more possession-the more points a team gains, again I speak generally. All the links to points and possession are indebted, I believe, to the rise or fall in shot totals, and specifically shots on target totals.