Sheffield Wednesday (A) match thread - sponsored by Roy

[windermere_royal]

Up 72 minute the statz said weds didn't have a shot on target

bummer. Murray started so well and seemed to have a good pen record.

oh well.

So anyone like to comment why Murray took the pen after Blackman`s confident strike midweek?

[Pepe the Horseman]

He won it, he wanted it. Same as Blackman on Tuesday.

[Ian Royal]

Up 72 minute the statz said weds didn't have a shot on target

bummer. Murray started so well and seemed to have a good pen record.

oh well.

So anyone like to comment why Murray took the pen after Blackman`s confident strike midweek?

Murray wanted it on Tuesday too, but Blackman had raced straight for it and wasn't given up. Someone else basically told Murray to back off (all amicably) as Blackman wanted it, had the ball and had won it.

[Sutekh]

Reading's record at penalties over the last 10 years isn't the best, seem to miss more than what you'd think the average would be. Don't suppose anyone has any stats on penalties awarded to Reading in the last 10 years and the conversion rate?

[Winchester Royal]

Reading's record at penalties over the last 10 years isn't the best, seem to miss more than what you'd think the average would be. Don't suppose anyone has any stats on penalties awarded to Reading in the last 10 years and the conversion rate?

I wouldn't consider it to be particularly poor, it's just the misses that are remembered.

[SCIAG]

There was a period where we couldn't score them for toffee but I don't think we've been dreadful aside from that

Reading's penalty takers over the last 10 years:
Fozzy - meh, not particularly clinical but not bad either
Shorey- I think he missed twice without scoring?
Kitson - great taker. Missed twice over many years but one of those was a great save
Lita - pretty crap considering what good form he was in
Doyle - well placed, not difficult to save if the goalkeeper guessed correctly though
Murty - should have taken more!
SHunt - lottery
Long - some dreadful ones but actually had a good record
Harte - great taker, but missed twice (I think his miss this weekend was only the fifth of his career)
Roberts, McAnuff, HRK, everyone else under the sun - eh
Le Fondre - hit and miss
Pogrebnyak - don't think he's missed?
Blackman - taken two, scored two?
Murray - missed

We've missed a lot, but our style of play and tendency to be one of the best teams in the division (and Long's excellent diving) mean we win a lot.

[SCIAG]

That wasn't what I came into the thread to say...

Sounds like we were slightly better value for the win but a draw would have been fair. Given that we got three points against Millwall in similar circumstances, I don't think we can complain.

[3points]

thought Le Fondre was a very good penalty taker. I think I saw him miss one? Also, HRK has a pretty decent record too IIRC

[genome]

Reading's record at penalties over the last 10 years isn't the best, seem to miss more than what you'd think the average would be. Don't suppose anyone has any stats on penalties awarded to Reading in the last 10 years and the conversion rate?

I don't know but I'd wager half of those came in the home match against Barnsley in 11/12

[urz13]

Pogrebynak missed at QPR away in the League Cup two seasons ago.

[marlowuk]

thought Le Fondre was a very good penalty taker. I think I saw him miss one? Also, HRK has a pretty decent record too IIRC

Surprised no-one has mentioned Gylfi. I can't remember if he took many but do remember that penalty he took in the dying seconds of our replayed cup-tie at Anfield a few years ago (following another Long dive?). So much pressure on such a young player who took it sooooo cooly.

[floyd__streete]

What kind of f*cking mickey mouse set up do we have at Reading where a successful midweek penalty taker isn't chosen for a similar duty 4 days later.....and the taker then misses

[P!ssed Off]

Never understand why a player would aim down the middle.
If you can't put it in the corner then give the ball to someone else.

[Ian Royal]

Never understand why a player would aim down the middle.
If you can't put it in the corner then give the ball to someone else.

Because it's a more reliable place to score than a foot up and 2 foot from either post where a lot of pens end up.

[P!ssed Off]

Never understand why a player would aim down the middle.
If you can't put it in the corner then give the ball to someone else.

Because it's a more reliable place to score than a foot up and 2 foot from either post where a lot of pens end up.

Think you'll find penalties going to the sides go in more often than those down the middle.

[West Stand Man]

Never understand why a player would aim down the middle.
If you can't put it in the corner then give the ball to someone else.

Because it's a more reliable place to score than a foot up and 2 foot from either post where a lot of pens end up.

Think you'll find penalties going to the sides go in more often than those down the middle.

It would be good to see the stats on this. I recall a piece of work that showed that the best place to put a penalty was straight down the middle, hit hard, and a bit above the ground. I could be imagining it though.

It would make sense as keepers almost always dive one way or the other, so your probability of puting the ball where the keeper isn't will increase by going down the middle.

[Ian Royal]

Never understand why a player would aim down the middle.
If you can't put it in the corner then give the ball to someone else.

Because it's a more reliable place to score than a foot up and 2 foot from either post where a lot of pens end up.

Think you'll find penalties going to the sides go in more often than those down the middle.

Not from the stats I've seen PO.

The best places are top corners. Right in the corners anywhere is good too. But the stats have always shown the most saveable pens are where I described from what I remember. Papes is pretty good with this iirc.

[handbags_harris]

Reading's record at penalties over the last 10 years isn't the best, seem to miss more than what you'd think the average would be. Don't suppose anyone has any stats on penalties awarded to Reading in the last 10 years and the conversion rate?

Quick run through the fixture lists from the beginning of 04/05, from memory (additions to be welcomed):-

04/05 - 4/4
Rotherham (h) - Kitson scored
Gillingham (h) - Kitson scored
Gillingham (h) - Kitson scored
Sunderland (a) - Kitson scored

05/06 - 7/11
Millwall (h) - Kitson scored
Coventry (a) - Lita missed
Palace (h) - Lita missed, retaken, Little missed
Stoke (a) - Kitson scored
Brighton (h) - Kitson scored
Millwall (a) - Kitson missed
Cardiff (h) - Kitson scored
West Brom (a) - Doyle scored
Sheff Utd (a) - Kitson missed
Stoke (h) - Doyle scored
QPR (h) - Murty scored

06/07 - 3/3
Man Utd (h) - Doyle scored
Fulham (a) - Doyle scored
Bolton (a) - Doyle scored

07/08 - 2/4
West Ham (h) - Doyle missed
Portsmouth (a) - Shorey missed
Liverpool (h) - Stephen Hunt scored
Birmingham (a) - Stephen Hunt scored

08/09 - 6/6
Charlton (a) - Stephen hunt missed, retaken, Stephen Hunt scored
Watford (a) - Stephen Hunt scored
Stoke (a) - Henry scored
Preston (a) - Stephen Hunt scored
Norwich (h) - Stephen Hunt scored
Charlton (h) - Long scored

09/10 - 10/13
Barnsley (a) - Noel Hunt scored
Palace (h) - Sigurdsson scored
Liverpool (a) - Sigurdsson scored
Forest (a) - Howard missed
Sheff Utd (a) - Sigurdsson missed
Plymouth (h) - Long scored
Derby (h) - Long missed
Bristol City (h) - Sigurdsson scored
QPR (h) - Sigurdsson scored
Leicester (a) - Sigurdsson scored
Coventry (h) - Church scored
Peterborough (h) - Sigurdsson scored
Scunthorpe (a) - Sigurdsson scored

10/11 - 11/14
Palace (h) - Long scored
Palace (h) - Harte scored
Burnley (a) - Long scored
Norwich (h) - Long scored
Derby (a) - Long scored
Hull (a) - Long missed
Hull (h) - Long scored
Palace (a) - Long scored
Portsmouth (h) - Long scored
Forest (a) - Long missed
Scunthorpe (a) - Harte scored
Derby (h) - Harte scored
Derby (h) - Harte missed
Cardiff (a) - Long scored

11/12 - 2/7
Barnsley (h) - Harte missed
Barnsley (h) - Noel Hunt missed
Barnsley (h) - Robson-Kanu scored
Bristol City (h) - Roberts missed (but scored the rebound)
Bristol City (h) - McAnuff missed
West Ham (a) - Harte scored
Birmingham (a) - Harte missed

12/13 - 4/5
Stoke (h) - Le Fondre scored
QPR (a) - Pogrebnyak missed
Everton (h) - Le Fondre scored
Crawley (a) - Le Fondre scored
West Brom (h) - Le Fondre scored

13/14 - 7/9
Bolton (a) - Blackman scored
Yeovil (a) - Le Fondre scored
Sheff Wed (a) - Le Fondre scored
Wigan (h) - Sharp missed
Bolton (h) - Pogrebnyak scored
Yeovil (h) - Le Fondre missed
Barnsley (h) - Pogrenyak scored
Huddersfield (h) - Pogrebnyak scored
Doncaster (a) - Le Fondre scored

14/15 - 1/2
Millwall (h) - Blackman scored
Sheff Wed (a) - Murray missed

If my maths is correct, I make that 57/78 which is a little less than a 75% success rate. I count 10 players who only took one penalty, and 6 of those didn't score (Little, Murty, Shorey**, Henry, Howard, Church, Robson-Kanu*, Roberts, McAnuff, Sharp and Murray*, * denoting still at the club, ** denoting penalties taken prior to sample period).

I make that Dave Kitson has 9/10; Leroy Lita 0/2; Kevin Doyle 5/6; Stephen Hunt 6/6 with one retake; Noel Hunt 1/2; Shane Long 11/13, Ian Harte 4/7; Gylfi Sigurdsson 7/8; Adam Le Fondre 7/8; Nick Blackman 2/2 and Pavel Pogrebnyak 3/4.

And what this also highlights is the extraordinary number of penalties we won under McDermott in 09/10 and 10/11!!

This is entirely from memory and quick workings, so it may not be entirely accurate, but you get the picture. 75% success rate though, just 11/12 letting us down really.

[Ian Royal]

FAO Pissed Off

http://www.scienceofsocceronline.com/2009/04/penalty-kicks-by-numbers.html

Penalty Kicks… By the Numbers
Penalty kicks are a critical time of decision making for both the goal keeper and the penalty taker. Given that, for most professional games, the average number of goals scored is around 2.5, a penalty kick can have a major influence on the outcome of a match. Penalty kicks may reach speeds near 125 mph and is usually over within a quarter of a second. Thus, the goal keeper must make a decision on how to stop the shot before the ball is struck. Statistics show that goal keepers will most often jump to the left or right, hoping to guess correctly and place him (or her) self in a position to block the kick. Is this action by the keeper the best strategy? Research headed by Michael Bar-Eli at the Ben-Gurion University of the Negev in Israel makes some interesting conclusions about how goal keepers should defend penalty kicks.

The researchers analyzed the video of 286 penalty kicks from professional leagues in Europe and South America as well as from the European Championships and World Cup competitions. They coded each PK into one of three vertical (high, middle or low) and horizontal (right, center or left) directions. Shots that missed the goal were not included in these analyses. They also coded goalkeeper movements (jump right, jump left or stay central) and whether or not they stopped the shot. Using simple statistics, they compared the success of goalkeepers in stopping shots based on their movements and where the ball was placed.

From the penalty kicker’s standpoint, 85% of the penalty shots placed on goal were successful. A bit more than half of the shots taken were placed in the lower one-third of the goal (57%). These low attempts were successful ~80% of the time. By comparison, only 13% of shots were placed in the upper third of the goal. However, all of these efforts resulted in a goal scored (100% success).

Slightly more shots were placed to the goal keeper’s right side compared to the center or left. Of these three directions, kickers were most successful when shooting at the center of the goal. Shots aimed at the center of the goal were successful 87% of the time compared to an 83% success rate for shots placed at the outer thirds of the goal.

Based on these numbers, professional penalty kick takers most often place the ball at the lower right corner of the goal (40% of attempts). However, they are far more successful when shooting at the upper portion. Thus, the most successful strategy for the penalty kick taker is to place the ball in the upper third of the goal area rather than the lower portion. Assuming that the shot doesn’t go over the crossbar, placing the shot in the upper region of the goal will almost insure a successful attempt.

Goal keeping behavior explains part of the goal scoring successes. In attempting to stop the penalty kick, goal keepers jump to the right or left 94% of the time. In doing this, they guess correctly only about 40% of the time (i.e. jump left, shot placed left). However, even when they guess correctly, they only stop 25-30% of the shots. The most intriguing part of the Dr. Bar-Eli’s analyses is that when goal keepers remain in the center of the goal and the shot is placed in the center, they make the save 60% of the time. Given that about 30% of penalty kicks are placed in the center third of the goal, remaining stationary in the center of the goal increases the keepers chances of stopping the shot from about 13% to more than 33%.

Thus, the best strategy for goal keepers is to remain in the center of the goal during the penalty kick. Thus the idea that goal keepers should jump left or right and hope they guess correctly is not supported by these numbers.

Why might there be more success when the goal keeper stays in the center of the net? When a keeper jumps in one direction, he/she is only able to cover about 1/9 of the goal area (usually the lower corner) plus a bit of the central area. Thus, if the ball is placed in the side or upper third, the keeper has very little chance of stopping the shot. The keeper is either out of position of in a poor position to stop the shot. However, if the keeper remains in the center of the goal area, he/she can cover closer to one third of the goal area (the upper-, middle- and lower-central areas).

If these numbers are correct, then why do goalies jump left or right in their effort to stop penalty kicks? Part of the decision may be based on experience, reading the shot taker’s body language and to opinion that diving is indeed the best strategy. Another reason probably lies in the concept of a “bias towards action”. This occurs with a decision is based on perceived need to “do something” rather than nothing. In sports, it is often said that mistakes are more forgivable if they are made at full speed. Diving to the left or right gives the appearance of effort and avoids the perception that he/or she didn’t attempt to make a save. In fact, a survey of goal keepers show that the vast majority feel worse if a goal is scored when they remain central versus diving to the left or right.

The take home message is that from a statistical standpoint, it may be more advantageous for a goal keeper to defend a penalty kick by remaining in the goal’s center rather than diving to one side. Despite the need to make a heroic effort, this situation may require doing less rather than more.

[Emmer Green Royal]

[quote="Ian Royal"]FAO Pissed Off

[url]http://www.scienceofsocceronline.com/2009/04/penalty-kicks-by-numbers.html[/url]

[quote]Penalty Kicks… By the Numbers
....[/quote][/quote]

Interesting (to an ex-goalkeeper). Thanks.