*RELEGATION WATCH*

[Snowball]

Last night's result did us no harm

A lot of six-pointers left but just two involving Reading.

That means that the others are all going to take points off each other


11 Games Left. 11 Points. 3 wins last 10. 42 Huddersfield
11 Games Left. 11 Points. 3 wins last 10. 41 Bolton
11 Games Left. 11 Points. 3 wins last 10. 41 Reading
11 Games Left. 14 Points. 4 wins last 10. 40 Brighton
10 Games Left. 08 Points. 2 wins last 10. 39 Fulham
11 Games Left. 08 Points. 2 wins last 10. 37 Rotherham
11 Games Left. 11 Points. 3 wins last 10. 31 Wigan*
11 Games Left. 08 Points. 2 wins last 10. 31 Millwall

WIGAN

Rotherham v Wigan
Fulham v Wigan
Millwall v Wigan
Wigan v Bolton
Wigan v Brighton


READING

Reading v Brighton
Rotherham v Reading


MILLWALL

Bolton v Millwall
Millwall v Brighton
Millwall v Wigan


ROTHERHAM

Huddersfield v Rotherham
Fulham v Rotherham

Rotherham v Wigan
Rotherham v Brighton
Rotherham v Reading

FULHAM

Huddersfield v Fulham
Fulham v Wigan
Fulham v Rotherham

BRIGHTON

Reading v Brighton
Millwall v Brighton
Rotherham v Brighton
Wigan v Brighton

Brighton v Huddersfield

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Looking good so far - Millwall and Wigan both losing at home

[LUX]

Upd8, they both lost

TFFT

[Snowball]

Blackpool, Millwall, Wigan lose and remain 10 points behind RFC
but we now have a game in hand. Fulham lose 1-5 to finish in
fourth-bottom and now with a worst GD than RFC. And Huddersfield
lose (to Rotherham) and are just a point in front of us. Win or draw
our game in hand and we go above them.

Really excellent results to go with our 0-0 at Bradford

Reading now out to 50/1 to be relegated

[Angry Shed Sex]

Blackpool, Millwall, Wigan lose and remain 10 points behind RFC
but we now have a game in hand. Fulham lose 1-5 to finish in
fourth-bottom and now with a worst GD than RFC. And Huddersfield
lose (to Rotherham) and are just a point in front of us. Win or draw
our game in hand and we go above them.

Really excellent results to go with our 0-0 at Bradford

Reading now out to 50/1 to be relegated

Please don't take this the wrong way, but have you actually seen us play lately?

[windermere_royal]

7 win and we cant be caught.

[LUX]

I have seen us recently, v Wigan

And I'm still looking at upcoming fixtures for Wigan and Millwall and hoping.

Really pleased with today, gives us a free hit v BHA.

[Snowball]

Blackpool, Millwall, Wigan lose and remain 10 points behind RFC
but we now have a game in hand. Fulham lose 1-5 to finish in
fourth-bottom and now with a worst GD than RFC. And Huddersfield
lose (to Rotherham) and are just a point in front of us. Win or draw
our game in hand and we go above them.

Really excellent results to go with our 0-0 at Bradford

Reading now out to 50/1 to be relegated

Please don't take this the wrong way, but have you actually seen us play lately?

Of course, and particularly, we are crap up front. But those sides have just ten games
to make up 10-11 points (and they play each other)

But, as an example, in the last two games (Bolton & Bradford) we needed to avoid defeat.

We did exactly that.

This is us away under Steve Clarke

DWLWDWWWLDD

W5 D4 L2 12-11

[Snowball]

10 Games Left. 11 Points. 3 wins last 11. 42 Huddersfield
11 Games Left. 11 Points. 3 wins last 10. 41 Bolton
11 Games Left. 11 Points. 3 wins last 10. 41 Reading
11 Games Left. 14 Points. 4 wins last 10. 40 Brighton
10 Games Left. 08 Points. 3 wins last 11. 40 Rotherham

10 Games Left. 08 Points. 2 wins last 10. 39 Fulham

10 Games Left. 11 Points. 3 wins last 11. 31 Wigan*
10 Games Left. 08 Points. 2 wins last 11. 31 Millwall


and Blackpool

Remaining matches where our relegation rivals will take points off each other


Millwall and Wigan will almost certainly need to win all their six-pointers
but they can't (as they play each other.) IF they were to suddenly hit a purple
patch, then they would damage Fulham, Brighton, Huddersfield, Rotherham.

Rotherham v Wigan
Fulham v Wigan
Millwall v Wigan
Wigan v Bolton
Wigan v Brighton
Bolton v Millwall
Millwall v Brighton
Fulham v Rotherham
Rotherham v Brighton
Huddersfield v Fulham
Fulham v Wigan
Fulham v Rotherham
Brighton v Huddersfield

[AthleticoSpizz]

Think you forgot to mention Rotherham v Wigan

[sputnik]

Think you forgot to mention Rotherham v Wigan

[TBM]

Beating Brighton is a must

Rest players v Watford ready for Monday

[paultheroyal]

Beating Brighton is a must

Rest players v Watford ready for Monday

Agreed.

13 points clear.... Safety in sight.

[Angry Shed Sex]

Blackpool, Millwall, Wigan lose and remain 10 points behind RFC
but we now have a game in hand. Fulham lose 1-5 to finish in
fourth-bottom and now with a worst GD than RFC. And Huddersfield
lose (to Rotherham) and are just a point in front of us. Win or draw
our game in hand and we go above them.

Really excellent results to go with our 0-0 at Bradford

Reading now out to 50/1 to be relegated

Please don't take this the wrong way, but have you actually seen us play lately?

Of course, and particularly, we are crap up front. But those sides have just ten games
to make up 10-11 points (and they play each other)

But, as an example, in the last two games (Bolton & Bradford) we needed to avoid defeat.

We did exactly that.

This is us away under Steve Clarke

DWLWDWWWLDD

W5 D4 L2 12-11

In the league? I suppose I'm just relieved you're not including the U21's and U18's games in these 'statistics'

[Snowball]

This is us away under Steve Clarke

DWLWDWWWLDD

W5 D4 L2 12-11

In the league? I suppose I'm just relieved you're not including the U21's and U18's games in these 'statistics'

Shame you can't count.

I'm talking about the First-Team Squad, and for all the above games, every one, we have selected the starting
11 and subs from that senior, first-team squad, in general, about 9 from11 of the expected "best team"

In all those away games we have played more-or-less to the same tight, not-be-beat strategy, except for the
one game where SC rested too many players in one hit.

This rubbish you and others keep spouting that the cup games are irrelevant, is just that, rubbish.

[Ian Royal]

snowball, do you ever consider that when virtually everyone you're talking to is telling you that your stats shouldn't include cup games, perhaps you shouldn't include them, seeing as it's actually just hurting your argument by constantly being pointed out and the whole thing being rejected? Or do you just think, no damn it, 'the conversation must be on my terms!'

[Snowball]

snowball, do you ever consider that when virtually everyone you're talking to is telling you that your stats shouldn't include cup games, perhaps you shouldn't include them, seeing as it's actually just hurting your argument by constantly being pointed out and the whole thing being rejected? Or do you just think, no damn it, 'the conversation must be on my terms!'

I couldn't give a monkeys what you think.

At least I have a mind of my own.

At least I have a mind.



I remember, back in the Coppell days me being criticised for NOT including cup games.

My argument was that Coppell clearly didn't care enough about the cups,
so I was (then) accused of "choosing to ignore those games because the
results didn't suit me"



I've made my case, and so far, no-one has made the remotest argument
that in reality these cup games don't follow exactly the same pattern as
the league games, EVERY ONE, tight, unadventurous, not all-out, not throwing
everyone forward, holding close for 45-60 minutes.

Even the 3-0 defeat at Huddersfield (where we rested six players) was
similar, but we made a number of individual errors.

[Ian Royal]

Ok, so can you explain why, if the approach is the same and it's so relevant to include cup games, that the results without the cup games are so drastically different. I mean, bear in mind that you only get more cup games if you win, so by having multiple games to include, you're automatically skewing the results in a more positive manner than the affect would be if we'd lost the first one.

If we're so good away, why did we fail to beat Brighton, Millwall and Bolton, one of whom was down to 10 men, and lose to Fulham. Three of which are poor sides and one mediocre. Why did we beat Wednesday and Norwich, plus draw with M'bro at home - two good and one mediocre sides - if it's a simple question of rubbish at home, good away?

It'll be interesting to see what happens over the rest of the season. My prediction though is that our league away form will not continue anywhere near as good as your league + cup stats 45% win rate. More like the solely league form 29%, probably worse. I'd be deeeeeelighted to be wrong though.

[Whatevs]

I really cba to read the stats post. Could you please summarise your hypothesis?

Cheers xx.

[Snowball]

Ok, so can you explain why, if the approach is the same and it's so relevant to include cup games, that the results without the cup games are so drastically different. I mean, bear in mind that you only get more cup games if you win, so by having multiple games to include, you're automatically skewing the results in a more positive manner than the affect would be if we'd lost the first one.

But if the approach is the same, the games are surely relevant.

The fact that we have won these cup games (and now drawn one) doesn't "skew" anything. If we win the replay v Bradford, doesn't that improve our home stats?

I know this is hard for you. I know it's a big, BIG step to think "We have X league games away and Y cup games away, each, in turn, a too- small sample, and if we put them together (provided the tactics and teams are similar) we have X+Y and X+Y is a reasonable sample size of 11 and can make judgments based on that.

If we're so good away, why did we fail to beat Brighton, Millwall and Bolton, one of whom was down to 10 men, and lose to Fulham. Three of which are poor sides and one mediocre. Why did we beat Wednesday and Norwich, plus draw with M'bro at home - two good and one mediocre sides - if it's a simple question of rubbish at home, good away?

Brighton was our second game under SC. He was still organising his team. We led 0-2 and then the old cracks appeared.
However, I consider a draw away from home a good result, even if that draw is at Blackpool.

Fulham was quite early in SC's reign. I didn't go to the game but all reports say we were well on top and should have won easily, got suckered in injury time

We outplayed Millwall and should have won, but it is a commonplace that teams often fail to beat ten men as the defending side often digs in and puts ten men behind the ball.
However, I consider a draw away from home a good result, even if that draw is at Blackpool.


Drawing at Bolton was a very , very good result. Their season-long home form prior the game was W8 D3 L4 29-21 but more recently (up to the Reading game) it was W7 D3 L1.

They have had just one league defeat at home since October 4th now winning SEVEN drawing 4 and losing just one game to Watford 3-4. (They also beat Wigan in the cup and narrowly lost to Liverpool.)

League Results

3-1 Brentford
3-0 Cardiff
3-1 Wigan
1-0 Huddersfield
0-0 Ipswich
2-1 Blackburn
1-1 Leeds
2-2 Wolves
3-1 Fulham
3-4 Watford
1-0 Brighton
1-1 Reading

P12 W7 D4 L1 23-12 = 25 points from 12 = 2.1 ppg

and THAT's a result you quote to show we didn't do well. You're hopeless!