*RELEGATION WATCH*

[Ian Royal]

I believe the magic number is down to 5.

[windermere_royal]

I believe the magic number is down to 5.

Millwall have a -32 GD so 4 will easily be enough, but we all know we have enough points already

[Ian Royal]

I believe the magic number is down to 5.

Millwall have a -32 GD so 4 will easily be enough, but we all know we have enough points already

Even just points wise it's an academic matter of time as you say, but IF Millwall were to get 12 points from their last 5 games and we got 1 from ours. over turning 13 goals isn't beyond belief.

If we averaged -1.5 GD per game over 4 games and they averaged +1.5 over 4, that's +12 goals in their favour.

Plus if Wigan won all 4 of their remaining games, their goal difference is going up by at least 4 and if we lost 4 and drew 1, ours would go down by at least 4 meaning they'd overtake us. So whilst we've been virtually safe for weeks, I'll stick to the magic number being 5 to be certain.

I think I got that right.

[Snowball]

Anyone who thinks RFC can somehow still engineer relegation
can now get 250-1 and 300-1

[Snowball]

Tuesday night, Millwall play Wigan

If that is a draw, Wigan’s maximum will be 46, Millwall 49

If Millwall win, they will still have a 51 point maximum, but Wigan then can’t catch us.

If Wigan win, both clubs will be on for a maximum of 48.





WIGAN



14 April Millwall v Wigan <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
18 April Wigan v Brighton <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
25 April Wigan v Wolves
02 May Brentford v Wigan

MILLWALL

14 April Millwall v Wigan <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
18 April Cardiff v Millwall
21 April Blackburn v Millwall
25 April Millwall v Derby
02 May Wolves v Millwall



The following night, Fulham are home to Rotherham. If Rotherham lose to Fulham and Millwall or Wigan win (esp if Millwall win) then it’s squeaky bum time.)

Rotherham have Norwich at home, Leeds away, Fulham and Reading. If they lose to Fulham and the Millwall-Wigan game isn’t a draw, they could be in real danger


ROTHERHAM

15 April Fulham v Rotherham <<<<<<<<<<<<
25 April Rotherham v Norwich
28 April Rotherham v Reading <<<<<<<<<<<
02 May Leeds v Rotherham

A lot hinges on the two games Tuesday/Wednesday. A defeat for Fulham home to Rotherham and they could be in trouble as they have Norwich and VBoro for their last two games.

FULHAM

15 April Fulham v Rotherham <<<<<<<<<<<<
18 April Blackpool v Fulham
25 April Fulham v Middlesboro
02 May Norwich v Fulham


But what would be REALLY nice is to see Brighton lose at home to Huddersfield, then lose to Wigan, then go into games against Watford and Boro having to win at least one of them

[Snowball]

18 41 -19 47 Reading
19 42 -07 45 Brighton
20 42 -21 45 Fulham
21 42 -22 43 Rotherham
22 42 -20 36 Wigan
23 41 -32 36 Millwall
24 42 -49 25 Blackpool

Bizarre odds to go down. The most-likely three are very strong favourites, Rotherham are 9-1 but Fulham are 50-1.

IF Rotherham were to win at Fulham those odds would reverse.

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Why is this thread still going? Neither Wigan or Millwall will reach the 47 we currently have.

If one of them manages to pull off a minor miracle & nick 21st place they'll be doing it at Rotherham's expense not ours.

[Ian Royal]

Because there's a certain satisfaction in ticking off the milestones to mathematical safety, and because we've been buggered over on the last day of the season a couple of times in recent memory.

[Stranded]

Looks as though Rotherham played an ineligible player in their recent 1-0 win over Brighton. If they get those points deducted (likely I would imagine) then they will only be 4 points ahead of Wigan & Millwall and 7 behind us.

[Vision]

I'm amazed. Not like Steve Evans to break the rules.

[Sutekh]

Looks as though Rotherham played an ineligible player in their recent 1-0 win over Brighton. If they get those points deducted (likely I would imagine) then they will only be 4 points ahead of Wigan & Millwall and 7 behind us.

They may not get a points deduction - it's quite possible they'll get fined instead, believe that was what happened to Blackpool when they did something similar this season.

Seems the good old FL is completely inconsistent about these things compared to other leagues and the FA.

If it's a fine then that's good as far as I'm concerned as I'd rather Rotherham stayed up than Wigan got out of it.

[LWJ]

Looks as though Rotherham played an ineligible player in their recent 1-0 win over Brighton. If they get those points deducted (likely I would imagine) then they will only be 4 points ahead of Wigan & Millwall and 7 behind us.

They may not get a points deduction - it's quite possible they'll get fined instead, believe that was what happened to Blackpool when they did something similar this season.

Seems the good old FL is completely inconsistent about these things compared to other leagues and the FA.

If it's a fine then that's good as far as I'm concerned as I'd rather Rotherham stayed up than Wigan got out of it.

Blackpool lost their game whereas Rotherham won it.

[TBM]

Exactly - its not a point deduction as such, its more you lose the points you earned in the game(s) the player played in.

[Mr Angry]

Exactly.

Any team that plays an illegible player should have any points they gained whilst that player was playing for them, deducted.









Unless you are West Ham United of course.

And QPR.

[Sutekh]

Didn't realise Blackpool lost their match, definite points deduction then. Likely to make our trip there very spicy.

[TBM]

Wigan can no longer catch us

I'm worried about Millwall, can see them winning their remaining games - only Derby will be their toughest test

Let's hope Rotherham get those points deducted

[Royalwaster]

Wigan can no longer catch us

I'm worried about Millwall, can see them winning their remaining games - only Derby will be their toughest test

Let's hope Rotherham get those points deducted

Wolves away isn't going to be a picnic ...

[Only one Trevor Morley]

I threw a fiver at 300-1 as if any team could contrive to get relegated it would be us. If millwall beat Cardiff and we lose to brum it will suddenly look very different... I obviously want us to stay up but at least I have some insurance against the sheer awfulNess of relegation if it did happen

[winchester_royal]

Not sure Blackburn and Cardiff away are overly simple either.

Brighton, Fulham, and Rotherham all have nasty games to come as well.

We'd have to be going some to get relegated from here.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

If we lose our last four games, which is possible, do people think.we will go down?

Rotherham should lose three points, so both them.and Millwall need to win three out of four, I can see one doing that, but not both.