Expectations for next season

[Haag Royal]

I think with all of the impending changes to the roster we'll get off to a slow start. Then one of two things will happen. Either the team will gel, their form will improve and they'll end the season in comfortable mid-table obscurity or they'll be in the relegation battle to the last day of the season.

It will all depend on who we ship out and who, if anyone of note, gets brought in during the summer. One thing is certain too many players did not give the effort expected from highly paid professionals this past season. My main expectation is seeing that changed...

Yes you can see it coming can't you. We bring in 3-4 new players and after 10 games we are 3rd from bottom with the manager saying "well it takes a new side time to gel"

No it doesn't if you are any good at your job - look at Southampton this season as an example. Kicked on from the first game so lets not even think we can be given this next year as a fob off.

[Nameless]

I see your Southampton and raise you Man Utd...

There just is no text book to refer to.

Some teams hit it off straight away, some take time. Even Steve Coppell didn't get it right from day 1......

[Lower West]

Some teams hit it off straight away, some take time. Even Steve Coppell didn't get it right from day 1......

How many years for Sir Alex? He was a game away from a potential sacking. Yet went onto great things. Continuity is the key to build consistancy.

[Forbury Lion]

Continuity is the key to build consistancy.

and when you are consistently bad, breaking the continuity is key.

[melonhead]

that's possible, but would then mean a reassessment of any expectations.

if you really want to rip the entire team up and start again, it puts back our likely target for challenging again.

[Forbury Lion]

I fear another dismal season. WHEN EVER have Reading FC had an amazing transfer window. Don't get your hopes up people, we just need to hope like this year, there are going to be three teams worse than us.........

I remember how negative some were when we signed some lad from Ireland, plus a younger lad to keep him company. Someone reporting that they were out of their LOLeague in training,..... whatever became of Kevin Doyle and Shane Long?

[Forbury Lion]

that's possible, but would then mean a reassessment of any expectations.

if you really want to rip the entire team up and start again, it puts back our likely target for challenging again.

If you have bad foundations, your probably best to rip them up and start again rather than build a wobbly tower on top and hope it doesn't fall down.

The fact Federici, Pearce and Karacan are to be offered new contracts suggests the manager wants them to stay, add in Hector and Williams and that's almost half an unchanged starting line-up just from those five so I don't think we'll change too much,

We should look to keep our best players but they are not the benchmark for new signings, we need better, particularly up front.

[melonhead]

If you have bad foundations, your probably best to rip them up and start again rather than build a wobbly tower on top and hope it doesn't fall down.

feds, pearce, karacan etc have all been involved in winning the championship- which for me shows that they probably aren't the reason why we didn't do well this year.

weve all seen these players play well, even this season. its just a case of getting them back on lower wages, getting rid of the bad/average players on high wages(blackman, akpan, drenthe, Guthrie, pog(I wish) etc), and then buying a striker a left back and defensive midfielder.
Shirley?

throwing the baby and bathwater out and starting again from scratch will simply result in yet another season(s) of terrible results imo

evolve, don't revolve



imo the problems this year have been financial.
and the effect that has had on our morale/mental resilience, and our ability to recruit in key positions.
so sort out the wage bill issues, which then allows us to recruit well in key positions, which helps with morale

[Ian Royal]

If you have bad foundations, your probably best to rip them up and start again rather than build a wobbly tower on top and hope it doesn't fall down.

feds, pearce, karacan etc have all been involved in winning the championship- which for me shows that they probably aren't the reason why we didn't do well this year.

I agree with this, but it wouldn't be the first time a great servant of the club had got a bit big for their boots and become a bit of a bad apple - by many accounts. I'm thinking the stories about Shorey, SHunt and maybe to a lesser degree Kitson in particular - certainly the Kitson v SHunt falling out.

weve all seen these players play well, even this season. its just a case of getting them back on lower wages, getting rid of the bad/average players on high wages(blackman, akpan, drenthe, Guthrie, pog(I wish) etc), and then buying a striker a left back and defensive midfielder.
Shirley?

throwing the baby and bathwater out and starting again from scratch will simply result in yet another season(s) of terrible results imo

evolve, don't revolve



imo the problems this year have been financial.
and the effect that has had on our morale/mental resilience, and our ability to recruit in key positions.
so sort out the wage bill issues, which then allows us to recruit well in key positions, which helps with morale

My priority would be looking at who's done it before and who seems to have the right attitude. Williams is a bit of a question mark, because whilst he's been great at times, he's never really fully sustained that. But I'd be looking at him.

The likes of Pearce, Karacan and Mackie all work tirelessly and passionately to put the graft in no matter how it's going. So I'd desperately want them here next season for that to be built on and spread. Feds to a lesser extent who despite my misgivings and dislike at times, has always been clearly known as an incredibly hard worker.

Then you look for the real talent. The likes of Hector. McCleary depending on his recovery from that injury - I'd like to see some stats on his physical performance pre and post injury if I was manager. He's certainly not played as well since, though that maybe a confidence and team form issue.

Other than that? I wouldn't be upset to see anyone replaced. Though all of them at once? Bad News.

[International Royal]

Clarke should get a chance. He's dissappointed to-date, but he inherited this shower of shoite. The points return per game is horrendous. We are in a downward spiral. No question. Where will it end? Can Clarke do it?

The most painful part is that most of this squad think they're good players. They ain't. SC - make the tough calls, get rid of as many as you can. HRK at the top of the list, Cox just behind. Don't play Pog ever again, even if he won't leave. You said we look more like scoring when he plays. I beg to differ. You've got to take the scalpel to this lot. And while you're at it, please do not sign veterans as you have a penchant for doing. Build a young vibrant team. Mid table next year will do just fine...

[Tamworth_Royal]

With a good transfer window - max 12th - call it 15th
Without a good transfer window - max 18th - call it 23rd

Well done Ian, I've been telling it as it is on here since 1996 always right and now even you are seeing the light
Madejski Howe and Hammond, until they go it's only going to go tits up. They are like London Open Top bus tour guides, tell the foreigners any bullshit and they will smile and come back a couple of times a year not still understanding football, British Culture or where's theirs money gone (Reading holdings):roll:

[Glory Boy]

Bristol City with 2 from Preston, MK Dons ,Sheff Utd coming up and QPR, Burnley coming down will make it a very strong looking Championship next season. I think we will have our work cut out to achieve mid table. Lower mid table at best.

[paultheroyal]

With a good transfer window - max 12th - call it 15th
Without a good transfer window - max 18th - call it 23rd

Well done Ian, I've been telling it as it is on here since 1996 always right and now even you are seeing the light
Madejski Howe and Hammond, until they go it's only going to go tits up. They are like London Open Top bus tour guides, tell the foreigners any bullshit and they will smile and come back a couple of times a year not still understanding football, British Culture or where's theirs money gone (Reading holdings):roll:

Anyone who says they are always right = tw@t

[Ian Royal]

With a good transfer window - max 12th - call it 15th
Without a good transfer window - max 18th - call it 23rd

Well done Ian, I've been telling it as it is on here since 1996 always right and now even you are seeing the light
Madejski Howe and Hammond, until they go it's only going to go tits up. They are like London Open Top bus tour guides, tell the foreigners any bullshit and they will smile and come back a couple of times a year not still understanding football, British Culture or where's theirs money gone (Reading holdings):roll:

Crawl back underyour rock with the other brainless invertebrates.

[DaddyKuhl]

My expectations for next year is a promotion push, as always! And i will back Steve Clarke like I backed Adkins, like I backed McDermott, like I backed Rodgers and Coppell.

[Stranded]

Pointless stats time - over the past 10 seasons the team finishing 19th finishes the next season in 13th place on average.

One club, Forest made the play-offs the season after a 19th place finish whilst 2 have been relegated the following season, Millwall this year and Leicester in 07/08.

So based on this small sample, I expect mid-table mediocrity but we are twice as likely to get relegated as we are to make the play-offs.

This has been a party political broadcast on behalf of the Snowball party.

[loyalroyal4life]

Depends how the rebuild goes, if SC gets what he wants, playoffs may be achievable.

[Snowball]

Another pointless stat then


07.5 First Season after relegation
11.7 2nd Season still down
13.1 3rd ...
15.6 4th
12.5 5th
10.8 6th

Those are the average positions after being relegated from the Prem

Worst cases

Portsmouth 16th, then relegated in 22nd, then relegated from League 1, consecutive seasons
Wolves dropped from the Prem then finished 23rd first season down, relegated
Charlton, relegated to Championship, 11th, then relegated next season in 24th.

And here are Saints & Canaries, four consecutive seasons

09 16 17 22(R) Norwich
12 06 20 23(R) Southampton

It worked for Saints though. They won League 1, then got automatic behind RDG the next season and now hover near a Europa League place in the top flight.


Only four relegated teams (five instances) have managed the automatic promotion places the next season
(Haven't checked to see if any won the POs)

1 Newcastle 2008-09
1 Sunderland 2006-07
2 WBA 2009-10
2 Birmingham 2006-07
2 Birmingham 2008-09
================================
3 Norwich
3 West Ham
4 QPR
4 Birmingham
4 Reading
4 WBA
5 Wigan
5 Blackpool
6 Watford
6 Palace
================================
7 Reading
7 Bolton 7.5 AVG
8 Burnley 7.5 AVG
9 Sheff Utd
9 Norwich
11 Cardiff
11 Hull
11 Middlesboro
11 Charlton
12 Southampton
16 Portsmouth
17 Fulham
17 Blackburn
18 Derby
23 Wolves (Relegated)

[Snowball]

Seems it takes 4-5 seasons (on average) to get over the cost of
relegation and start to improve position-wise, though some teams
play a high risk strategy and go for broke first season down

Reading (2) 7th (failed on last day), 19th, 2005-06 ???

Reading (1) 4th (PO Semis), 9th, 5th (PO Final), Champions.

So RFC with an average finishing position first season down of 5.5
are doing two positions better than average.

Their overall post-relegation position (all seasons) is 45/6 = 7.5 against an all-teams average of 15.6*

So all in all, Madejski & Co do pretty well.


(*excluding future positions for sides that are relegated from the championship, so really the number is worse than that)

[Forbury Lion]

On the plus side, if relegated teams were strong enough to go straight back up there wouldn't be any hope for the other teams in the league.