An analysis of Reading's current situation

[Royal1988]

Firstly, I would like to say that I am a Reading Fan of 28 years, and this is my first post on these forums. I normally avoid posting on forums, as I try to avoid endless debates of “I’m right/your wrong”, so I have decided to post here not my opinions, but more a carefully considered and (hopefully) unbiased view of our current situation and recent past. Please excuse the length, but I hope you will understand, when you see how much thought I have put into getting an unbiased view.

Secondly, a week on from Brain McDermott's sacking seems the right time to post this, as the initial response seems to have relatively died down now, and emotions aren't running quite so high.

I will begin where I think a lot of fans will agree that all of our problems began when Anton Zingarevich took control of the club. It is now clear that he had no money to spend on the club and the squad suffered. Brian McDermott had over achieved with the side that he had in getting them to the premiership, especially given the slow start of his side that season (just as the previous year results picked up to an absurd degree after Christmas). It is easy to forget that we were facing relegation in December, but he somehow managed to turn that side around and win the league.

When we got to the premiership, AZ did not spend much on the squad, more or less repeating the same mistake from our first time in the premiership. Brian McDermott could not keep the squad up, and seemed to have a hard time motivating the squad, there were problems going on behind the scenes, and there were clear divisions in the dressing room, coming to a head when Guthrie refused to travel to Sunderland, and losing 7 league games in row. Yes, BM did stick with some players for too long, when he should have changed them – sticking with the same players usually only works when the team is winning. However, the squad did not have the quality to compete in the premiership, and needed a lot more investment; very few managers would have been able to keep that squad up (the first premiership team had a lot more quality, and was riding on such a high from the previous season, that it carried through our first season, before coming to light the next season).

After losing another 4 games in a row, BM then got the sack just over a month after winning the manager of the month award which had indicated that he might be able to get something out of the team. It seemed that AZ was reacting to the fans starting to turn on him and also making one last attempt to change things to keep us up – presumably desperate to get that big payday of another season. Like a lot of owners, his answer was to sack the manager in the vein hope of his replacement being able to do something different. Once it was obvious that we were down, his replacement Nigel Adkins then used the rest of the season to experiment with the squad and look at new players. NA tried to change the way that Reading played, wanting to play a more passing game. The last manager to try this at Reading was Brendan Rogers, and that failed, however, Nigel Adkins had more experience (getting Southampton promoted from League 1 to the Premiership) than Brendan had had before us, so it was a little different. The outcome was the same however, with the Reading team passing the ball about nicely in their own half some of the time, but struggling to go forward at the same time. Under Adkins’ stewardship however, we did manage to challenge for the play-offs, only missing out in the last match of the Season. Somewhat short however, of his bizarre expectation of 21 clean sheets and 100 goals (we scored 70).

It was during this season, that the Russian’s crazy frittering away of the clubs money, the clubs debts and SJM retaking control of the club came to light. In hindsight, NA did a very good job this season in getting us to where we were under such circumstances. Then the summer of 2014 he lost ELEVEN first team players, and could only replace with Cox, Ferdinand, Norwood, plus Mackie and Murray on Loan. One of these players was Le Fondre, who was sold to pay off a tax bill left by AZ. On top of this, Christopher Samuelson had been trying to take over the club with Vibrac, and the club was ultimately sold to our current owners. Difficult conditions for Adkins to work in certainly. Situations like this are where a manager’s man-management abilities come into play, and it appeared that Nigel Adkins was found lacking in this department. He changed his team every week, inexplicably dropping players who had performed well, just when stability was needed. More importantly though, the results were relegation form - from our first 21 games of the season we had 25 points. By the 6-1 defeat at Birmingham, the players were devoid of confidence, and he had clearly lost the dressing room. If he had stayed, we may well have ended up being relegated, so the Thais made their first decision (at least publicly) and sacked Adkins

By Reading’s standards the appointment was done incredibly quickly – too quickly? Maybe. Too quickly for Steve Clarke? Apparently so, given his comments on sky a few weeks ago. If his comments are to be believed, then it seems that he soon discovered that we had no money to spend, and the workings at the top of the club were not something he found easy to work with.

The brilliant cup run to the semi-finals last year cannot be denied, but it masked the performance in the league. The form was in fact very slightly worse than that under Nigel Adkins, gaining the same number of points, but in 4 more games. You have to consider though, that Steve Clarke had inherited the squad and could only make limited changes in January, as most clubs outside of the big clubs can. Yes some clubs, turn things around instantly with a new manager, but invariably it does not work. You only have to look at the Championship this season – 13 teams changed their manager before the end of April, two were in the top half – Derby and Brentford. That leaves 10 of the top 12 working with a stable club. (Cardiff also changed their manager, but only at the very end of the season)
Last summer was a big one for Reading, the Thais seemed to invest more in the squad than Reading had ever done before, signing 12 players, 6 of which were on loan. However, there was very little immediate outlay, with 3 of them on a free, and the 6 loan signings being spread over the seasons wages. The obvious exception to this was Vydra who also had a fee – paid for by the sale of Hector to Chelsea. The Thais were following the Watford Model of relying on loan signings from the previous season – one that had worked for Watford, but will only work if the side has something that the loanees have something to play for. One possible reason for the lack of money spent on actual transfers may be down to FFP. I don’t know the workings of this, but I believe that you can only make a loss of so much. Combine this with the drop in parachute payments, and there may have only been so much that we were allowed to spend.
At the start of the season, everything looked great, a terrific run in September and October saw us pick up 18 points from 8 games – it was promotion form. Then we lost to Fulham, throwing away a 2-0 lead, and this match summed up a recurring theme for the rest of the season, many points were thrown away after this from winning or drawing positions (including 10 points from our last 10 games). That for me was our biggest problem this year. SC then signed his own P45 by speaking to Fulham, results and the fact that Fulham was lower in the league meant this was a bad move and this compounded the freefall, from that Fulham game, we had 5 points from 8 games, and the team looked like they didn’t care anymore. Steve Clarke was then sacked with an overall record of 51 points from 44 games, little better than relegation form, although skewed by the fact that half of them were not with a team he had assembled.
The next appointment took longer that the last, but was seemingly at the suggestion of the “old guard”. Like Steve Clarke before him, Brian McDermott inherited a team that he had not built, not only that, but they were loan players who would have nothing to play for once it became clear we were destined for mid-table (which was earlier than normal due to an unusually settled looking table). Brian McDermot’s tenure saw us pick up 25 points from 25 games – exactly the same as Steve Clarkes first 25 games, so rightly or wrongly, it should be no surprise that this was the outcome.

It is possible that the Thais merely looked at this and wanted to make the change sooner than half way through next season like had been done the last 2 seasons. But to look backwards in football is to stand still or go backwards yourself, so I would hope this decision is taken based on next season and not last. Brian McDermott may have done well with the youngsters next season – something the owners have already stated that they are looking to do next season. It is also possible that next season may have got off to a slow start as McDermott’s teams have done previously. In which case, I could not see them sticking with him past December at most, and we would be back to where we are now. More worryingly, another possibility is that the Thais are looking to do things their own way. Recent events seem to make this scenario more likely. First of all, Steve Clarke’s comments on Sky, then all of the staff that have left in the last few weeks including Nicky Hammond, then Brian McDermott’s sacking, and perhaps most worryingly for me, Simon Cox’s tweet, all point towards things not being right at our club. Danzell Gravenberch’s signing is just a couple of days before our manager gets the sack also seems to point to the fact that they want to dictate who we sign. Leaving it until three weeks after the season, also is not ideal, as now we have missed the chance of getting some great managers (although they may not have wanted to come to Reading anyway).
One of the things that has concerned me most of all in the last few weeks is the news that work has stopped on Bearwood, which leaves me wondering how much money the Thais are actually willing or able to invest in the club. This makes it seem even more like Royal Elm Park is their main focus, and the lack of communication only enhances this. The owners say that the club needs this development for the long term future of the club. This may or may not be true, but the club should certainly not be sacrificed for it. They also said that they are learning on the job, which in itself is not a problem – SJM had no football experience when he brought the club, but he surrounded himself with football people, where the Thais just seem to be looking for getting rid of these same people, and bringing their own people, who, at least initially, don’t seem to know much more than them.

This brings us up to date, and looking back, I can see that mistakes have been made at all levels of the club, from the players right to the top including all managers, and all owners including Sir John. Maybe even by us supporters to a point too. What is most worrying for me, is that there is a once famous football club local to me – Hereford FC (formerly Utd), and some of the factors that started their slide which resulted in them being wound up were mistakes at the highest level of that club. The mistakes that we have been making seem to echo some of those made there, and that is very concerning.

Even before the end of last season, I said that next season would be our most defining since 2000/2001, and would show which direction we will be heading in the next few years. Now, it is even more so. What we need next season is stability. At the very latest we need to have a manager in place by the end of June, so that they can get to know the players when they come back for training. This can’t be just anyone though, it needs to be exactly the right person, and the owners need to stick with him and not sack him as soon as we have a few bad results. The owners need to see that there is no quick fix to take us back to the premiership, it is as far away now as it was back in 2000, and we as fans also need to see that and give the manager and players the support that they need. I look at the teams in the Championship next year, and can see the top 8 being Newcastle, Norwich, Brentford, Brighton, Cardiff, Derby Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday. I can also see Wigan, Aston Villa, Birmingham, Preston, QPR, Leeds, Bristol City and Wolves finishing in Mid-table, leaving us to fight it out with Blackburn, Barnsley, Forest, Huddersfield, Fulham, Burton and Rotherham at the bottom. Just surviving relegation next year will be an achievement.

I understand people saying they will not renew their season ticket, or saying that they will not attend any more matches, but returning to Hereford for a moment, that is what happened there, and was ultimately the final nail in their coffin.
Next season, we need somehow to once again find that connection with the club, or at the very least, the team. A connection that we seem to have lost over the last couple of years. It cannot be underestimated what influence that team Spirit and togetherness has. Look at pretty much any promoted side from Hereford FC, who got promoted in their first year since reforming, right to Leicester City at the top of the Premiership, and there is one common factor – that bond with the fans – and this along with stability is what we desperately need at the moment. We all know, managers come and go, but so do owners eventually, and as long as us fans continue to support the club and stick with it, it will be here long after the owners have gone.

Troubled waters definitely seem to lie ahead, and it looks increasingly unlikely that we can steer around them, but as long as we stick with the ship and its captain and crew, we can hopefully steer through them eventually.

[RG7Fan]

I understand people saying they will not renew their season ticket, or saying that they will not attend any more matches, but returning to Hereford for a moment, that is what happened there, and was ultimately the final nail in their coffin.
Next season, we need somehow to once again find that connection with the club, or at the very least, the team. A connection that we seem to have lost over the last couple of years. It cannot be underestimated what influence that team Spirit and togetherness has. Look at pretty much any promoted side from Hereford FC, who got promoted in their first year since reforming, right to Leicester City at the top of the Premiership, and there is one common factor – that bond with the fans – and this along with stability is what we desperately need at the moment. We all know, managers come and go, but so do owners eventually, and as long as us fans continue to support the club and stick with it, it will be here long after the owners have gone.

Hereford FC : +1 from me!

[Upper West Ginger]

It is traditional to greet a new poster with a shower of abuse, but in light of the exceptional thought and effort you have put in, can I say "Welcome", and I hope you take the time to post again in future.

[RG7Fan]

It is traditional to greet a new poster with a shower of abuse, but in light of the exceptional thought and effort you have put in, can I say "Welcome", and I hope you take the time to post again in future.

Sod it - oxf*rd off newbie!

[Royal_jimmy]

Just how many hours did you spend writing that?

[RG7Fan]

Just how many hours did you spend writing that?

Took me about 20 seconds ...

[CountryRoyal]

I didn't read it but in the spirit of HNA? I heartedly disagree with everything you wrote.

[Jagermesiter1871]

Haven't read it but does it explain why Brian has gone?

[Faithful Son]

Excellent post. I must admit I share your concerns, especially with regards to the development of the car park.

[Y25Beryl]

Firstly, I would like to say that I am a Reading Fan of 28 years, and this is my first post on these forums. I normally avoid posting on forums, as I try to avoid endless debates of “I’m right/your wrong”, so I have decided to post here not my opinions, but more a carefully considered and (hopefully) unbiased view of our current situation and recent past. Please excuse the length, but I hope you will understand, when you see how much thought I have put into getting an unbiased view.

Secondly, a week on from Brain McDermott's sacking seems the right time to post this, as the initial response seems to have relatively died down now, and emotions aren't running quite so high.

I will begin where I think a lot of fans will agree that all of our problems began when Anton Zigaravich took control of the club. It is now clear that he had no money to spend on the club and the squad suffered. Brian McDermott had over achieved with the side that he had in getting them to the premiership, especially given the slow start of his side that season (just as the previous year results picked up to an absurd degree after Christmas). It is easy to forget that we were facing relegation in December, but he somehow managed to turn that side around and win the league.

When we got to the premiership, AZ did not spend much on the squad, more or less repeating the same mistake from our first time in the premiership. Brian McDermott could not keep the squad up, and seemed to have a hard time motivating the squad, there were problems going on behind the scenes, and there were clear divisions in the dressing room, coming to a head when Guthrie refused to travel to Sunderland, and losing 7 league games in row. Yes, BM did stick with some players for too long, when he should have changed them – sticking with the same players usually only works when the team is winning. However, the squad did not have the quality to compete in the premiership, and needed a lot more investment; very few managers would have been able to keep that squad up (the first premiership team had a lot more quality, and was riding on such a high from the previous season, that it carried through our first season, before coming to light the next season).

After losing another 4 games in a row, BM then got the sack just over a month after winning the manager of the month award which had indicated that he might be able to get something out of the team. It seemed that AZ was reacting to the fans starting to turn on him and also making one last attempt to change things to keep us up – presumably desperate to get that big payday of another season. Like a lot of owners, his answer was to sack the manager in the vein hope of his replacement being able to do something different. Once it was obvious that we were down, his replacement Nigel Adkins then used the rest of the season to experiment with the squad and look at new players. NA tried to change the way that Reading played, wanting to play a more passing game. The last manager to try this at Reading was Brendan Rogers, and that failed, however, Nigel Adkins had more experience (getting Southampton promoted from League 1 to the Premiership) than Brendan had had before us, so it was a little different. The outcome was the same however, with the Reading team passing the ball about nicely in their own half some of the time, but struggling to go forward at the same time. Under Adkins’ stewardship however, we did manage to challenge for the play-offs, only missing out in the last match of the Season. Somewhat short however, of his bizarre expectation of 21 clean sheets and 100 goals (we scored 70).

It was during this season, that the Russian’s crazy frittering away of the clubs money, the clubs debts and SJM retaking control of the club came to light. In hindsight, NA did a very good job this season in getting us to where we were under such circumstances. Then the summer of 2014 he lost ELEVEN first team players, and could only replace with Cox, Ferdinand, Norwood, plus Mackie and Murray on Loan. One of these players was Le Fondre, who was sold to pay off a tax bill left by AZ. On top of this, Christopher Samuelson had been trying to take over the club with Vibrac, and the club was ultimately sold to our current owners. Difficult conditions for Adkins to work in certainly. Situations like this are where a manager’s man-management abilities come into play, and Nigel Adkins was found lacking in this department. He changed his team every week, inexplicably dropping players who had performed well, just when stability was needed. More importantly though, the results were relegation form - from our first 21 games of the season we had 25 points. By the 6-1 defeat at Birmingham, the players were devoid of confidence, and he had clearly lost the dressing room. If he had stayed, we may well have ended up being relegated, so the Thais made their first decision (at least publicly) and sacked Adkins

By Reading’s standards the appointment was done incredibly quickly – too quickly? Maybe. Too quickly for Steve Clarke? Apparently so, given his comments on sky a few weeks ago. If his comments are to be believed, then it seems that he soon discovered that we had no money to spend, and the workings at the top of the club were not something he found easy to work with.

The brilliant cup run to the semi-finals last year cannot be denied, but it masked the performance in the league. The form was in fact very slightly worse than that under Nigel Adkins, gaining the same number of points, but in 4 more games. You have to consider though, that Steve Clarke had inherited the squad and could only make limited changes in January, as most clubs outside of the big clubs can. Yes some clubs, turn things around instantly with a new manager, but invariably it does not work. You only have to look at the Championship this season – 13 teams changed their manager before the end of April, two were in the top half – Derby and Brentford. That leaves 10 of the top 12 working with a stable club. (Cardiff also changed their manager, but only at the very end of the season)
Last summer was a big one for Reading, the Thais seemed to invest more in the squad than Reading had ever done before, signing 12 players, 6 of which were on loan. However, there was very little immediate outlay, with 3 of them on a free, and the 6 loan signings being spread over the seasons wages. The obvious exception to this was Vydra who also had a fee – paid for by the sale of Hector to Chelsea. The Thais were following the Watford Model of relying on loan signings from the previous season – one that had worked for Watford, but will only work if the side has something that the loanees have something to play for. One possible reason for the lack of money spent on actual transfers may be down to FFP. I don’t know the workings of this, but I believe that you can only make a loss of so much. Combine this with the drop in parachute payments, and there may have only been so much that we were allowed to spend.
At the start of the season, everything looked great, a terrific run in September and October saw us pick up 18 points from 8 games – it was promotion form. Then we lost to Fulham, throwing away a 2-0 lead, and this match summed up a recurring theme for the rest of the season, many points were thrown away after this from winning or drawing positions (including 10 points from our last 10 games). That for me was our biggest problem this year. SC then signed his own P45 by speaking to Fulham, results and the fact that Fulham was lower in the league meant this was a bad move and this compounded the freefall, from that Fulham game, we had 5 points from 8 games, and the team looked like they didn’t care anymore. Steve Clarke was then sacked with an overall record of 51 points from 44 games, little better than relegation form, although skewed by the fact that half of them were not with a team he had assembled.
The next appointment took longer that the last, but was seemingly at the suggestion of the “old guard”. Like Steve Clarke before him, Brian McDermott inherited a team that he had not built, not only that, but they were loan players who would have nothing to play for once it became clear we were destined for mid-table (which was earlier than normal due to an unusually settled looking table). Brian McDermot’s tenure saw us pick up 25 points from 25 games – exactly the same as Steve Clarkes first 25 games, so rightly or wrongly, it should be no surprise that this was the outcome.

It is possible that the Thais merely looked at this and wanted to make the change sooner than half way through next season like had been done the last 2 seasons. But to look backwards in football is to stand still or go backwards yourself, so I would hope this decision is taken based on next season and not last. Brian McDermott may have done well with the youngsters next season – something the owners have already stated that they are looking to do next season. It is also possible that next season may have got off to a slow start as McDermott’s teams have done previously. In which case, I could not see them sticking with him past December at most, and we would be back to where we are now. More worryingly, another possibility is that the Thais are looking to do things their own way. Recent events seem to make this scenario more likely. First of all, Steve Clarke’s comments on Sky, then all of the staff that have left in the last few weeks including Nicky Hammond, then Brian McDermott’s sacking, and perhaps most worryingly for me, Simon Cox’s tweet, all point towards things not being right at our club. Danzell Gravenberch’s signing is just a couple of days before our manager gets the sack also seems to point to the fact that they want to dictate who we sign. Leaving it until three weeks after the season, also is not ideal, as now we have missed the chance of getting some great managers (although they may not have wanted to come to Reading anyway).
One of the things that has concerned me most of all in the last few weeks is the news that work has stopped on Bearwood, which leaves me wondering how much money the Thais are actually willing or able to invest in the club. This makes it seem even more like Royal Elm Park is their main focus, and the lack of communication only enhances this. The owners say that the club needs this development for the long term future of the club. This may or may not be true, but the club should certainly not be sacrificed for it. They also said that they are learning on the job, which in itself is not a problem – SJM had no football experience when he brought the club, but he surrounded himself with football people, where the Thais just seem to be looking for getting rid of these same people, and bringing their own people, who, at least initially, don’t seem to know much more than them.

This brings us up to date, and looking back, I can see that mistakes have been made at all levels of the club, from the players right to the top including all managers, and all owners including Sir John. Maybe even by us supporters to a point too. What is most worrying for me, is that there is a once famous football club local to me – Hereford FC (formerly Utd), and some of the factors that started their slide which resulted in them being wound up were mistakes at the highest level of that club. The mistakes that we have been making seem to echo some of those made there, and that is very concerning.

Even before the end of last season, I said that next season would be our most defining since 2000/2001, and would show which direction we will be heading in the next few years. Now, it is even more so. What we need next season is stability. At the very latest we need to have a manager in place by the end of June, so that they can get to know the players when they come back for training. This can’t be just anyone though, it needs to be exactly the right person, and the owners need to stick with him and not sack him as soon as we have a few bad results. The owners need to see that there is no quick fix to take us back to the premiership, it is as far away now as it was back in 2000, and we as fans also need to see that and give the manager and players the support that they need. I look at the teams in the Championship next year, and can see the top 8 being Newcastle, Norwich, Brentford, Brighton, Cardiff, Derby Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday. I can also see Wigan, Aston Villa, Birmingham, Preston, QPR, Leeds, Bristol City and Wolves finishing in Mid-table, leaving us to fight it out with Blackburn, Barnsley, Forest, Huddersfield, Fulham, Burton and Rotherham at the bottom. Just surviving relegation next year will be an achievement.

I understand people saying they will not renew their season ticket, or saying that they will not attend any more matches, but returning to Hereford for a moment, that is what happened there, and was ultimately the final nail in their coffin.
Next season, we need somehow to once again find that connection with the club, or at the very least, the team. A connection that we seem to have lost over the last couple of years. It cannot be underestimated what influence that team Spirit and togetherness has. Look at pretty much any promoted side from Hereford FC, who got promoted in their first year since reforming, right to Leicester City at the top of the Premiership, and there is one common factor – that bond with the fans – and this along with stability is what we desperately need at the moment. We all know, managers come and go, but so do owners eventually, and as long as us fans continue to support the club and stick with it, it will be here long after the owners have gone.

Troubled waters definitely seem to lie ahead, and it looks increasingly unlikely that we can steer around them, but as long as we stick with the ship and its captain and crew, we can hopefully steer through them eventually.

A good summing up there
A question - does anyone think any profit in Royal Elm Park will filter into the club ? My concern is no it won't !

[Lower West]

The real problem now lies elsewhere. There's a huge financial gulf between the premiership and other leagues. Last season 17 premier league clubs made a profit. Next season the TV revenues are even greater. Works out at £10 million per televised game. In the first season of the premier league in 1991/92 clubs shared £15 million in total. That's only 135 minutes of televised football now. The elastic has snapped possibly forever to many clubs in the lower leagues. Rich benefactors aren't enough. Clubs will be bought by corporations. Soon be Ebay vs Amazon.

[paultheroyal]

Firstly, I would like to say that I am a Reading Fan of 28 years, and this is my first post on these forums. I normally avoid posting on forums, as I try to avoid endless debates of “I’m right/your wrong”, so I have decided to post here not my opinions, but more a carefully considered and (hopefully) unbiased view of our current situation and recent past. Please excuse the length, but I hope you will understand, when you see how much thought I have put into getting an unbiased view.

Secondly, a week on from Brain McDermott's sacking seems the right time to post this, as the initial response seems to have relatively died down now, and emotions aren't running quite so high.

I will begin where I think a lot of fans will agree that all of our problems began when Anton Zigaravich took control of the club. It is now clear that he had no money to spend on the club and the squad suffered. Brian McDermott had over achieved with the side that he had in getting them to the premiership, especially given the slow start of his side that season (just as the previous year results picked up to an absurd degree after Christmas). It is easy to forget that we were facing relegation in December, but he somehow managed to turn that side around and win the league.

When we got to the premiership, AZ did not spend much on the squad, more or less repeating the same mistake from our first time in the premiership. Brian McDermott could not keep the squad up, and seemed to have a hard time motivating the squad, there were problems going on behind the scenes, and there were clear divisions in the dressing room, coming to a head when Guthrie refused to travel to Sunderland, and losing 7 league games in row. Yes, BM did stick with some players for too long, when he should have changed them – sticking with the same players usually only works when the team is winning. However, the squad did not have the quality to compete in the premiership, and needed a lot more investment; very few managers would have been able to keep that squad up (the first premiership team had a lot more quality, and was riding on such a high from the previous season, that it carried through our first season, before coming to light the next season).

After losing another 4 games in a row, BM then got the sack just over a month after winning the manager of the month award which had indicated that he might be able to get something out of the team. It seemed that AZ was reacting to the fans starting to turn on him and also making one last attempt to change things to keep us up – presumably desperate to get that big payday of another season. Like a lot of owners, his answer was to sack the manager in the vein hope of his replacement being able to do something different. Once it was obvious that we were down, his replacement Nigel Adkins then used the rest of the season to experiment with the squad and look at new players. NA tried to change the way that Reading played, wanting to play a more passing game. The last manager to try this at Reading was Brendan Rogers, and that failed, however, Nigel Adkins had more experience (getting Southampton promoted from League 1 to the Premiership) than Brendan had had before us, so it was a little different. The outcome was the same however, with the Reading team passing the ball about nicely in their own half some of the time, but struggling to go forward at the same time. Under Adkins’ stewardship however, we did manage to challenge for the play-offs, only missing out in the last match of the Season. Somewhat short however, of his bizarre expectation of 21 clean sheets and 100 goals (we scored 70).

It was during this season, that the Russian’s crazy frittering away of the clubs money, the clubs debts and SJM retaking control of the club came to light. In hindsight, NA did a very good job this season in getting us to where we were under such circumstances. Then the summer of 2014 he lost ELEVEN first team players, and could only replace with Cox, Ferdinand, Norwood, plus Mackie and Murray on Loan. One of these players was Le Fondre, who was sold to pay off a tax bill left by AZ. On top of this, Christopher Samuelson had been trying to take over the club with Vibrac, and the club was ultimately sold to our current owners. Difficult conditions for Adkins to work in certainly. Situations like this are where a manager’s man-management abilities come into play, and Nigel Adkins was found lacking in this department. He changed his team every week, inexplicably dropping players who had performed well, just when stability was needed. More importantly though, the results were relegation form - from our first 21 games of the season we had 25 points. By the 6-1 defeat at Birmingham, the players were devoid of confidence, and he had clearly lost the dressing room. If he had stayed, we may well have ended up being relegated, so the Thais made their first decision (at least publicly) and sacked Adkins

By Reading’s standards the appointment was done incredibly quickly – too quickly? Maybe. Too quickly for Steve Clarke? Apparently so, given his comments on sky a few weeks ago. If his comments are to be believed, then it seems that he soon discovered that we had no money to spend, and the workings at the top of the club were not something he found easy to work with.

The brilliant cup run to the semi-finals last year cannot be denied, but it masked the performance in the league. The form was in fact very slightly worse than that under Nigel Adkins, gaining the same number of points, but in 4 more games. You have to consider though, that Steve Clarke had inherited the squad and could only make limited changes in January, as most clubs outside of the big clubs can. Yes some clubs, turn things around instantly with a new manager, but invariably it does not work. You only have to look at the Championship this season – 13 teams changed their manager before the end of April, two were in the top half – Derby and Brentford. That leaves 10 of the top 12 working with a stable club. (Cardiff also changed their manager, but only at the very end of the season)
Last summer was a big one for Reading, the Thais seemed to invest more in the squad than Reading had ever done before, signing 12 players, 6 of which were on loan. However, there was very little immediate outlay, with 3 of them on a free, and the 6 loan signings being spread over the seasons wages. The obvious exception to this was Vydra who also had a fee – paid for by the sale of Hector to Chelsea. The Thais were following the Watford Model of relying on loan signings from the previous season – one that had worked for Watford, but will only work if the side has something that the loanees have something to play for. One possible reason for the lack of money spent on actual transfers may be down to FFP. I don’t know the workings of this, but I believe that you can only make a loss of so much. Combine this with the drop in parachute payments, and there may have only been so much that we were allowed to spend.
At the start of the season, everything looked great, a terrific run in September and October saw us pick up 18 points from 8 games – it was promotion form. Then we lost to Fulham, throwing away a 2-0 lead, and this match summed up a recurring theme for the rest of the season, many points were thrown away after this from winning or drawing positions (including 10 points from our last 10 games). That for me was our biggest problem this year. SC then signed his own P45 by speaking to Fulham, results and the fact that Fulham was lower in the league meant this was a bad move and this compounded the freefall, from that Fulham game, we had 5 points from 8 games, and the team looked like they didn’t care anymore. Steve Clarke was then sacked with an overall record of 51 points from 44 games, little better than relegation form, although skewed by the fact that half of them were not with a team he had assembled.
The next appointment took longer that the last, but was seemingly at the suggestion of the “old guard”. Like Steve Clarke before him, Brian McDermott inherited a team that he had not built, not only that, but they were loan players who would have nothing to play for once it became clear we were destined for mid-table (which was earlier than normal due to an unusually settled looking table). Brian McDermot’s tenure saw us pick up 25 points from 25 games – exactly the same as Steve Clarkes first 25 games, so rightly or wrongly, it should be no surprise that this was the outcome.

It is possible that the Thais merely looked at this and wanted to make the change sooner than half way through next season like had been done the last 2 seasons. But to look backwards in football is to stand still or go backwards yourself, so I would hope this decision is taken based on next season and not last. Brian McDermott may have done well with the youngsters next season – something the owners have already stated that they are looking to do next season. It is also possible that next season may have got off to a slow start as McDermott’s teams have done previously. In which case, I could not see them sticking with him past December at most, and we would be back to where we are now. More worryingly, another possibility is that the Thais are looking to do things their own way. Recent events seem to make this scenario more likely. First of all, Steve Clarke’s comments on Sky, then all of the staff that have left in the last few weeks including Nicky Hammond, then Brian McDermott’s sacking, and perhaps most worryingly for me, Simon Cox’s tweet, all point towards things not being right at our club. Danzell Gravenberch’s signing is just a couple of days before our manager gets the sack also seems to point to the fact that they want to dictate who we sign. Leaving it until three weeks after the season, also is not ideal, as now we have missed the chance of getting some great managers (although they may not have wanted to come to Reading anyway).
One of the things that has concerned me most of all in the last few weeks is the news that work has stopped on Bearwood, which leaves me wondering how much money the Thais are actually willing or able to invest in the club. This makes it seem even more like Royal Elm Park is their main focus, and the lack of communication only enhances this. The owners say that the club needs this development for the long term future of the club. This may or may not be true, but the club should certainly not be sacrificed for it. They also said that they are learning on the job, which in itself is not a problem – SJM had no football experience when he brought the club, but he surrounded himself with football people, where the Thais just seem to be looking for getting rid of these same people, and bringing their own people, who, at least initially, don’t seem to know much more than them.

This brings us up to date, and looking back, I can see that mistakes have been made at all levels of the club, from the players right to the top including all managers, and all owners including Sir John. Maybe even by us supporters to a point too. What is most worrying for me, is that there is a once famous football club local to me – Hereford FC (formerly Utd), and some of the factors that started their slide which resulted in them being wound up were mistakes at the highest level of that club. The mistakes that we have been making seem to echo some of those made there, and that is very concerning.

Even before the end of last season, I said that next season would be our most defining since 2000/2001, and would show which direction we will be heading in the next few years. Now, it is even more so. What we need next season is stability. At the very latest we need to have a manager in place by the end of June, so that they can get to know the players when they come back for training. This can’t be just anyone though, it needs to be exactly the right person, and the owners need to stick with him and not sack him as soon as we have a few bad results. The owners need to see that there is no quick fix to take us back to the premiership, it is as far away now as it was back in 2000, and we as fans also need to see that and give the manager and players the support that they need. I look at the teams in the Championship next year, and can see the top 8 being Newcastle, Norwich, Brentford, Brighton, Cardiff, Derby Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday. I can also see Wigan, Aston Villa, Birmingham, Preston, QPR, Leeds, Bristol City and Wolves finishing in Mid-table, leaving us to fight it out with Blackburn, Barnsley, Forest, Huddersfield, Fulham, Burton and Rotherham at the bottom. Just surviving relegation next year will be an achievement.

I understand people saying they will not renew their season ticket, or saying that they will not attend any more matches, but returning to Hereford for a moment, that is what happened there, and was ultimately the final nail in their coffin.
Next season, we need somehow to once again find that connection with the club, or at the very least, the team. A connection that we seem to have lost over the last couple of years. It cannot be underestimated what influence that team Spirit and togetherness has. Look at pretty much any promoted side from Hereford FC, who got promoted in their first year since reforming, right to Leicester City at the top of the Premiership, and there is one common factor – that bond with the fans – and this along with stability is what we desperately need at the moment. We all know, managers come and go, but so do owners eventually, and as long as us fans continue to support the club and stick with it, it will be here long after the owners have gone.

Troubled waters definitely seem to lie ahead, and it looks increasingly unlikely that we can steer around them, but as long as we stick with the ship and its captain and crew, we can hopefully steer through them eventually.

Interesting and thoughtful read, thank you.

[fergs]

Thoughtful analysis - only person with this level of insight and time to write it must have been Brian McDermott!

[NewCorkSeth]

Just a quick point (I'm half way through and may return to add to this later) is Danzell signing indicative of the owners wanting to be in control of transfers or is it our current dutch DOF signing players he's familiar with thus doing his job?

Ok my only other question is about royal elm park. The only other club I can think of that did a similar thing is Franchise FC. Hasn't that actually helped them somewhat? They have a fairly quality academy producing some talented youngsters. Could some of this not be put down to the increased income? Dele alli, Brendan Galloway, sheyi ojo there's probably others.. I just think a lot of people are pessimistic (not unreasonably) about this development but it could equally have a positive effect right?

[East Grinstead Royal]

Excellent post, but this is the bit that resonated with me:

I understand people saying they will not renew their season ticket, or saying that they will not attend any more matches, but returning to Hereford for a moment, that is what happened there, and was ultimately the final nail in their coffin.

The differences between supporters of clubs really become apparent when things go tits up. Whatever you think about Portsmouth (and I believe they should have been excluded from the League for what they did), you can't deny that their supporters have stayed behind them in the most difficult of circumstances. The problems that Reading have right now pale in comparison with what Portsmouth have faced in the last few years, but we seem to have dozens of former STHs turning their back on the club, even though we are still in the Championship. The supporters ARE the club. The owners are temporary.

One more thing, picking up on another point made earlier in this thread. If the owners were dictating what players we sign, is it likely they would have picked a player that most of us had never heard of? They are not "football people," after all.

[WAZZOCK]

There are so many holes to pick in the opening post, it's unreal.

It is easy to forget that we were facing relegation in December, but he somehow managed to turn that side around and win the league

This isn't true, we were floating around the playoffs

Premiership

It's Premier League

When we got to the premiership, AZ did not spend much on the squad

Not entirely true. we brought in 7 players, that's 7 X Premier League wages plus a few transfer fees. Not to mention Pav's big salary.

Nigel Adkins was found lacking in this department

This is completely unfounded, there is nothing to suggest that this was the issue.

Yes some clubs, turn things around instantly with a new manager, but invariably it does not work.

Doesn't make sense

I got bored after this point. You say these are not your opinions, but your ramblings are completely littere with unfounded statements that are clearly based on your own thoughts. Well done for trying though.

[CountryRoyal]

I didn't read it but in the spirit of HNA? I heartedly disagree with everything you wrote.

I finally read it all.

I still disagree with most of it tbf.

A+ for effort though.

[Barcelona Blue]

[ I look at the teams in the Championship next year, and can see the top 8 being Newcastle, Norwich, Brentford, Brighton, Cardiff, Derby Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday. I can also see Wigan, Aston Villa, Birmingham, Preston, QPR, Leeds, Bristol City and Wolves finishing in Mid-table, leaving us to fight it out with Blackburn, Barnsley, Forest, Huddersfield, Fulham, Burton and Rotherham at the bottom. Just surviving relegation next year will be an achievement.]



It´s the THIRD OF JUNE , how on earth can people make predictions without ;

1. Knowiung who the new manager is
2.knowing what the budget is
3. know what youngtsers will be involved ??
4.knowing what players we will buy
5.what players will be loaned in???

seems crazy to me that people can make predictions on next season without knowing the facts above, at least wait to the start of the season or closong of the transfer window to know what cards you´ve got before asuming anything..just because a load of doomers and gloolmers say we will have a shit manager/no signings(no loans doesnt mean its truej

[CountryRoyal]

[ I look at the teams in the Championship next year, and can see the top 8 being Newcastle, Norwich, Brentford, Brighton, Cardiff, Derby Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday. I can also see Wigan, Aston Villa, Birmingham, Preston, QPR, Leeds, Bristol City and Wolves finishing in Mid-table, leaving us to fight it out with Blackburn, Barnsley, Forest, Huddersfield, Fulham, Burton and Rotherham at the bottom. Just surviving relegation next year will be an achievement.]



It´s the THIRD OF JUNE , how on earth can people make predictions without ;

1. Knowiung who the new manager is
2.knowing what the budget is
3. know what youngtsers will be involved ??
4.knowing what players we will buy
5.what players will be loaned in???

seems crazy to me that people can make predictions on next season without knowing the facts above, at least wait to the start of the season or closong of the transfer window to know what cards you´ve got before asuming anything..just because a load of doomers and gloolmers say we will have a shit manager/no signings(no loans doesnt mean its truej

If you know 4 and 5 I'm not sure why knowing 2 would help.

[AlexanderMeekins94]

I do actually agree with Royal1988. Especially this part:

This brings us up to date, and looking back, I can see that mistakes have been made at all levels of the club, from the players right to the top including all managers, and all owners including Sir John.

and:

The mistakes that we have been making seem to echo some of those made there, and that is very cog.

Hope there will be improvement in the future.


Alex


http://www.timeo.co.uk/hobbycraft-opening-times/