by Ian Royal »
14 Jun 2016 17:21
Nameless Ian Royal Nameless Genuine question.
How long should a club give a manager before sacking him ?
Should there be an unbreakable 2 year contract ?
If a manager is clearly not up to the job, players becoming demoralised, results appalling should he keep his job if he has been in it less than a year ?
If clubs must keep managers for 2 years does it mean managers can't quit if they want to move clubs ?
I sympathise with the belief that sometimes managers are sacked too soon and (like Ferguson, like Pardew, like Coppell) sticking with them pays dividends. But I suspect more struggling managers would just struggle more given another 12 months in the job.
So is there an actual practical solution or is the cry that 'he needed more time' just one of the hollow cliches that don't bear any examination ?
Hired pre August:
Safe until 1 December and from then on:
If expectations are top third, sacked if in bottom third and not moving upwards any time soon.
If expectations are mid-table, sacked if in bottom 5/6 if no sign of improvement.
if expectations are survival, sacked if adrift in the bottom two with no sign of improvement.
Hired during the season, post November:
Safe until 1 December next season as per above, unless relegated in which case review
Special circumstances of sacking for prolonged runs of terrible form - say 6+ defeats in a row, winless in 10.
Basically have patience and give someone a chance to turn things around unless there is a clear and imminent threat to the club. Or other issues happen, like the manager undermines their position making it untenable.
So sacking someone after 4 months is patient ? That seems a very, very quick firing. At most patient you are saying manages have 12 months before questions start getting asked.
I was expecting 18 months to be the start point, 3 transfer windows with a complete season including a full preseason.
The key things are:
(reasonable) Expectations for performance compared to actual performance
Club's recent performance and management status
Clear threat to divisional status
There's no point keeping a manager who's really under-performing at the real risk of relegation. It's not unreasonable to pull the trigger fairly quickly, but that should be exceptional circumstances. You can't just guarantee someone 18 months no matter how badly they are doing.
I think you can afford to be more trigger happy when you're coming out of a period of success and stability, whereas you need to suck it up and show more patience when you've been struggling and had several management changes recently.
Rodgers for example, came in when the club was still successful and had been very stable. He had a good squad, which had recently performed to a high level. He took the team from the top few, to hovering above relegation in just 3-4 months. Nowhere near expectations, nowhere near recent performance, clear threat to divisional status = sacked and not unreasonably, despite the speed. He also didn't have a particularly impressive track record at that point.
Clarke going when he did was only really acceptable because of the way he'd made his position untenable. Otherwise he probably would have got at least another couple of months, because despite the awful form, we were still mid-table (roughly where expectations for the season had started) and doing better than the previous season, with no definite threat of relegation at that point. If we'd kept him longer I think it would have done more damage, but no one would have been calling for his head, but for talking to Fulham.
I think if you stuck to my suggestion across the FL, you'd see an increase in the average managerial period of at least 3 - 6 months
Think of it as at least 18 months except for emergency situations.