A round-up of the qualifiers around the world...
It seems in every South American qualifying process one of the bigger teams has an early wobble before sneaking through, but this time Argentina do look in a bit of trouble, mainly because they're terrible. Messi has been forced out of international retirement, and they got well beaten by Brazil this week, leaving them 6th (Top 4 automatically qualify). Funes Mori couldn't even get into Everton's leaky defence last season yet is currently first choice for the Argentines
After 11 games each only 4 points separate 3rd and 8th. This was helped mainly by Bolivia, who despite beating Peru 2-0 and holding Chile to a 0-0 draw, decided to play defender Nelson Cabrera in both matches, who had already been capped by Paraguary
Both matches were overturned to 0-3 defeats, so Peru and Chile are both still in contention
The 'Uruguay Spot', in other words 5th place (Uruguay finished there in 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014 qualification), which always leads to a Intercontinental Play-Off, would probably be enough, given it's Oceania this year who get to face South America
Oceania have now reached the actual qualifying stage, with the six teams decided based on performance in the OFC Nations Cup (New Zealand scraping past Papau New Guinea on penalties to qualify for the 2017 Confederations Cup). New Zealand won their opening match 2-0 over New Caledonia this morning, with Fiji the other side in Group A. In Papau New Guinea's Group B, Tahiti beat the Solomon Islands 1-0
The two group winners get to play-off to decide who gets to play-off vs South America, and although New Zealand have been pretty awful for quite some time now, I can't see any of the Pacific Islanders earning a dream date vs possibly Messi and Aguero
Africa is probably the toughest qualifying process given the lack of places and the fact nearly all the teams are pretty well matched. We're down to the final stage, with 5 groups of 4 giving us the 5 qualifiers, in other words you have to win the group otherwise you're out.
Tunisia look like they're going to breeze through Group A, but Group B shows how tough it can be, with Nigeria, Cameroon and Algeria all toughing it out for a single place alongside Zambia (who did win the Cup Of Nations four years ago). Nigeria are blessed with attacking options - Musa, Moses, Ighalo, Iwobi, Iheanacho - but are a bit lacking in defence. Algeria are obviously reliant on Leicester's Mahrez and Slimani, whilst Cameroon aren't quite as strong these days. Nigeria (who won their opening game 1-2 against Zambia), face Algeria later today.
Ivory Coast should get through Group C, but Group D is wide open after South Africa beat Senegal earlier today, courtesy of the worst refereeing decision I've ever seen giving Bafana Bafana a penalty. Cape Verde were very close to qualifying last time out, and would have been the smallest nation ever to play at the World Cup (population 500,000), but them and Burkina Faso might not be strong enough in that group.
Group E should be Ghana, but having failed to beat Uganda at home it leaves Egypt, their opponents tomorrow in pole position. Egypt have only qualified for the World Cup twice (one of which was 1934) so the Pharaohs are starting to get a bit excited. Asamoah Gyan failed to earn a call-up for today's game, but Barnsley's Andy Yiadom (who they signed from Barnet in the summer) has just received his new passport and will make his debut, which has enraged the Head of Ghana's FA
The media did their best to link USA vs Mexico last night to Donald Trump's election, so maybe the Mexicans were inspired to victory, with Rafael Marquez scoring an 89th minute winner. Marquez made his debut for Mexico in 1997, and played in the 1999 Confederations Cup final in which they beat Brazil
He's also the only player every to captain their country in four successive World Cups, which could very easily become five
This is the opening round of the final stage in North America, with Costa Rica beating Trinidad & Tobago and Panama winning away in Honduras. Good result for the Panamaniacs, who were heartbreakingly close in 2014 to reaching their first World Cup, knocked out by two injury-time goals by USA in the final round last time out (which saw Mexico scrape through). The Top 3 of 6 will qualify, with 4th facing a play-off against Asia
I posted about Asia last time out and they get going again on Tuesday. South Korea vs Uzbekistan could potentially be a qualification decider in Group A. The Uzbeks are probably the World Cup's unluckiest team, having been ordered by FIFA to replay their play-off against Bahrain in 2006 thanks to a dodgy refereeing decision, and in 2014 missing out on automatic qualification by one goal, before losing in another play-off to Jordan 9-8 on penalties. With Qatar and China badly underperforming this time round in their group, a big opportunity if they can get a result in Korea
Saudi Arabia haven't been at a World Cup since 2006, and haven't won a match at one since their debut in 1994, yet they're running with Group B. They face Japan who have been pretty poor for a few years now, but still lie 3rd, the play-off position, behind Australia and ahead of UAE, Iraq, and the whipping boys Thailand (who don't appear to ever call anyone up who plays outside of Thailand). Their top scorer Teerasil Dangda was at Man City when they had Thai owners, but was released when the Abu Dhabi takeover happened. Not sure he'll be joining us anytime soon however
Europe will probably be clearer after this weekend, but with limited places it's already looking quite different to the largely irrelevant Euro 2016 process. Only 1st place automatically qualifies, and only the 8 best runner-ups get a chance through the play-offs.
Group A: France scraped past Sweden last night to put them further ahead, Netherlands need to start winning games fast otherwise they'll be missing out on another tournament
Group B: Portugal losing to Switzerland has already put the Euro 2016 champions place in doubt, although the continued heroics of the Faroe Islands may stop Hungary or Latvia challenging the top two, unless the Faroes fancy the job themselves (population 48,000)
Group C: Germany will win this group and likely win all their games, they beat San Marino 8-0 last night. Azerbaijan helped Northern Ireland by taking points off Norway and Czech Republic, and then getting thumped 4-0 in Belfast yesterday.
Group D: Huge game for Wales tonight against leaders Serbia. Georgia have looked decent but are unlikely to challenge Austria or Ireland, who face each other this evening.
Group E: No real strong team in this group, which means Poland look like winning it early on. Montenegro, their closest challengers blew a 0-2 lead to lose against Armenia yesterday, whilst Denmark and Romania don't look as strong as they have in the past
Group F: England have made a good start results-wise, but Slovenia and Slovakia continue to win and keep up the pressure. Scotland are finished already
Group G: This will be Spain or Italy, both tied on 7 points after three games
Group H: Belgium and Greece have a 100% record, with Bosnia looking the only challengers to those two
Group I: A strong, unbeaten start by Iceland (helped by a dramatic comeback and a 96th minute winner against Finland), puts them level with Croatia. They face off in probably the pick of today's games. A strong group, with Turkey, Ukraine and Kosovo also hoping to compete, although Kosovo have been surprisingly poor
