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[Stranded]

Apart from anything those points totals are presumably what the team in 21st got so more than you needed to be safe*?

*Generally**
**I'd imagine

EXACTAMUNDO MY FRIEND! I think only twice in those listed seasons was a team relegated on GD.

Using the completely unscientific rule of looking at what a team was relegated with an adding a point to ensure survival. The magic number to stay up is, on average, 47pts. Get to 50 and you have a 25% chance of being relegated, based on league tables this century.

Get to 52 and that drops to 13.33%. Using this small sample size, you can only definitely say you are safe when you get to 55 pts but in general you can feel a little comfortable once you are in the 47-50 bracket.

[Victor Meldrew]

It is a fine result but hardly any of those count apart from McShane.

Kermorgant?

our only striker.....
1st choice CDM
& Possible Record signing

Kermorgant-because there has been nobody else
Joey-because the manager favours him above Evans but is a liability
Record signing for a while-is unfit and has only played briefly
So that is why I felt that the only one likely to play would be McShane that we would miss so your injury list was just that, a list.
A satisfactory result was the outcome and my point was that those mentioned by you would hardly have been missed and so it turned out.-let's not pretend we had a crippling injury list.

[Ian Royal]

:|

No. It's the same as picking the highest points to finish 6th and saying you need that to guarantee a play off place.

If you take the average, you fail to be safe a significant amount of the time.

Your figure of 49 points to be safe would have seen a team relegated in 7 of the seasons you listed. How on warth is that safe!?

It's not what's needed to probably stay up. It's what's needed to definitely / almost certainly stay up.

No. Picking the absolute maximum points to avoid something is equal to picking the absolute minimum points to achieve something.

The high/low switches as you travel to the other end of the table.

Its safe because the other 9 seasons it was enough.. 56 points will also likely not get you relegated.. so will 58 or 60 or 65...

This is wrong on so many levels there's no point continuing. Sorry.

[NewCorkSeth]

:|

No. It's the same as picking the highest points to finish 6th and saying you need that to guarantee a play off place.

If you take the average, you fail to be safe a significant amount of the time.

Your figure of 49 points to be safe would have seen a team relegated in 7 of the seasons you listed. How on warth is that safe!?

It's not what's needed to probably stay up. It's what's needed to definitely / almost certainly stay up.

No. Picking the absolute maximum points to avoid something is equal to picking the absolute minimum points to achieve something.

The high/low switches as you travel to the other end of the table.

Its safe because the other 9 seasons it was enough.. 56 points will also likely not get you relegated.. so will 58 or 60 or 65...

This is wrong on so many levels there's no point continuing. Sorry.

Its actually not even slightly wrong but whatever.. I can see the effort to explain it is not worth the outcome when people above have already in more simple terms pointed out why 54 is a dumb figure.

[NewCorkSeth]

:|

No. It's the same as picking the highest points to finish 6th and saying you need that to guarantee a play off place.

If you take the average, you fail to be safe a significant amount of the time.

Your figure of 49 points to be safe would have seen a team relegated in 7 of the seasons you listed. How on warth is that safe!?

It's not what's needed to probably stay up. It's what's needed to definitely / almost certainly stay up.

No. Picking the absolute maximum points to avoid something is equal to picking the absolute minimum points to achieve something.

The high/low switches as you travel to the other end of the table.

Its safe because the other 9 seasons it was enough.. 56 points will also likely not get you relegated.. so will 58 or 60 or 65...

This is wrong on so many levels there's no point continuing. Sorry.

Ok I couldnt resist.


To guarantee survival in the championship you must get at least X points = To *A* you must get at least *B*
To guarantee a playoff spot in the championship you must get at least Z points = To *C* you must get *D*

You will notice the above have the exact same argument structure. I think we can all agree there are rough bench marks for finishing outside of the relegation zones and also for finishing inside the playoff spots. There is no rough bench mark for finishing 3rd..

That is why its not wrong on so many levels. Not even eye or sea level.

[tmesis]

Apart from anything those points totals are presumably what the team in 21st got so more than you needed to be safe*?

*Generally**
**I'd imagine

EXACTAMUNDO MY FRIEND! I think only twice in those listed seasons was a team relegated on GD.

Using the completely unscientific rule of looking at what a team was relegated with an adding a point to ensure survival. The magic number to stay up is, on average, 47pts. Get to 50 and you have a 25% chance of being relegated, based on league tables this century.

Get to 52 and that drops to 13.33%. Using this small sample size, you can only definitely say you are safe when you get to 55 pts but in general you can feel a little comfortable once you are in the 47-50 bracket.

Even simpler, if you achieve the average points for safety, you'll survive half of the time. 50% chance of success, 50% chance of failure.

No situation which offers a 50% chance of failure can be deemed safe,

Even if you take the 9 survive, 7 dropped figures mentioned before, which is 56% in favour of staying up, all it means is you'll probably be safe. There'd be more chance of staying up than going down.

[NewCorkSeth]

EXACTAMUNDO MY FRIEND! I think only twice in those listed seasons was a team relegated on GD.

Using the completely unscientific rule of looking at what a team was relegated with an adding a point to ensure survival. The magic number to stay up is, on average, 47pts. Get to 50 and you have a 25% chance of being relegated, based on league tables this century.

Get to 52 and that drops to 13.33%. Using this small sample size, you can only definitely say you are safe when you get to 55 pts but in general you can feel a little comfortable once you are in the 47-50 bracket.

Even simpler, if you achieve the average points for safety, you'll survive half of the time. 50% chance of success, 50% chance of failure.

No situation which offers a 50% chance of failure can be deemed safe,

Even if you take the 9 survive, 7 dropped figures mentioned before, which is 56% in favour of staying up, all it means is you'll probably be safe. There'd be more chance of staying up than going down.

The point Silver fox made was that those are not the points required for safety in each respective season. They are the points teams who finished 21st got.

2015-16 Rotheham - 49 ------------------------9 points above 22nd
2014-15 - Rotherham - 46----------------------5 points above 22nd
2013-14 - Birmingham - 44---------------------*equal points*
2012-13 - Barnsley - 55--------------------------1 point above 22nd
2011-12 – Barnsley - 48.-------------------------8 points above 22nd
2010-11 – Doncaster - 48.-----------------------6 points above 22nd
2009-10 – Palace - 49.----------------------------2 points above 22nd
2008-09 – Plymouth - 51.-----------------------5 points above 22nd
2007-08 – Coventry - 53.------------------------1 point above 22nd
2006-07 – Hull - 49.-------------------------------7 points above 22nd
2005-06 – QPR - 50.------------------------------8 points above 22nd
2004-05 – Crewe - 50.----------------------------*equal points*
2003-04 – Gillingham - 51.----------------------*equal points*
2002-03 – Stoke - 50.------------------------------4 points above 22nd
2001-02 - Rotherham - 49.----------------------*equal points*
2000-01 - Palace - 49------------------------------1 point above 22nd

So only 4 times since 2000 has a team needed above 50 points for survival..

[tmesis]

Either way "if you get x points you will be safe" and "if you get x points you will probably be safe" are two very different statements.

[NewCorkSeth]

Either way "if you get x points you will be safe" and "if you get x points you will probably be safe" are two very different statements.

True. But surely the actual guaranteed safety number is quite high?

[tmesis]

Yes, which is why you'd usually say "probably safe" or "normally safe" if that's what you mean.

Guaranteed safety would probably be about 70 points or more, as in theory every team could win 23 games and get 69 points*

* one would obviously have to drop points to allow you to get over 69.

[NewCorkSeth]

Yes, which is why you'd usually say "probably safe" or "normally safe" if that's what you mean.

Guaranteed safety would probably be about 70 points or more, as in theory every team could win 23 games and get 69 points*

* one would obviously have to drop points to allow you to get over 69.

I see. As pointed out above only in 4 of the last 16 seasons has 50 points or more been required to beat the drop so it seems reasonable to me to say 49 points (which would have seen you in 21st in 12 of the last 16 seasons) is probably safe.