Points needed for Playoffs

[royal_craigb]

Right, as we enter the final 12 games of the season it seems that our position in the table may not be as "false" as many have suggested, and we're clearly going to be in the playoff mix.

Realistically how many more points do people feel we need to accumulate to secure a playoff spot?

With the form other teams are showing I would aim for 6 wins from the 12 - taking us to 78 points, which in seasons gone by has been plenty enough to get over the line.

Where will those 6 points come from? I would target:
- Wolves (H)
- Blackburn (H)
- Rotherham (H)
- Forest (A)
- Wigan (H)
- Burton (A)

This means that any slip ups in these fixtures would mean us needing to get results from the other (arguably tougher) games.

Interested to get everyone's thoughts...

[CountryRoyal]

Average is 75 so that's a good basis to go on. I think we should have enough in us to get another 15.

[BR0B0T]

How do you actually target winning games

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

How do you actually target winning games

By not trying to win the other games i guess.. unless we drop points in the target six, when we will need to target any of the non targeted games.

[Stranded]

I would say 75 will be enough but with our GD 76 would be better.

So 5 wins and 1 draw to get 16 pts. With the games left, that should be achievable.

If we get that then to miss out, Fulham would need to get 23 pts from 13 and Sheff Wed 18. Or if one of them falter then Norwich or Preston would need to go at 2pts per game (24 from 12).

Fulham's next 3 are PNE, Leeds and Newcastle, before their game in hand. So if they are still in contention after those games, I will start to be concerned by them.

Of course we play 3 of those so winning 1 or 2 would make life easier and avoiding defeat would make life harder for 2 of those 4 to go past us.

[Royal_jimmy]

I think 77 is the magic number this year. I think 5 wins (Preston, Rotherham, Wigan, Blackburn and Forest) and 2 draws (Wolves, Burton) should do it then we can afford to lose the rest.

But we may slip up v one of those banana skin teams and beat Leeds, Norwich, Sheffield Wednesday, Newcastle or Villa instead. It's a funny league

[genome]

Norwich/Derby seem too inconsistent, and it remains to be seen if Fulham can keep their form up, so the total may well be low this year. Preston and Barnsley are there but I'd be surprised if they mounted a serious challenge, stranger things have happened though.

To me, Fulham are the biggest threat at the moment.

[No Fixed Abode]

Failure to score in 3 out of the last 5 games.

8 goals conceded and 5 scored.

It's not looking good.

[genome]

[No Fixed Abode]

Erm....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tea ... ng/results

[genome]

Not denying the facts are correct m8, but it's an obvious fishing trip (again).

[Sutekh]

Pulled from the Rival Watch thread

Average points required for each position in the Championship over the last 15 seasons

[No Fixed Abode]

Not denying the facts are correct m8, but it's an obvious fishing trip (again).

Stating facts isn't fishing. HTH.

I want Reading to do well.

[genome]

Not denying the facts are correct m8, but it's an obvious fishing trip (again).

Stating facts isn't fishing. HTH.

I want Reading to do well.

Just go back to trolling double d, you're doing a proper job on him

[No Fixed Abode]

Not denying the facts are correct m8, but it's an obvious fishing trip (again).

Stating facts isn't fishing. HTH.

I want Reading to do well.

Just go back to trolling double d, you're doing a proper job on him

Damn Carragher and G Nev using stats on MNF and trolling all those football fans out there.

[genome]

Context is a wonderful thing

[No Fixed Abode]

Have you thought about contacting these football shows that use stats and tell them not to troll the fans out there?

[genome]

Context is a wonderful thing

[No Fixed Abode]

Context is a wonderful thing

So when G Nev is doing some statistical analysis on Liverpool he's trolling their fans.

Context is a wonderful thing

[gdroyal]

Right, as we enter the final 12 games of the season it seems that our position in the table may not be as "false" as many have suggested, and we're clearly going to be in the playoff mix.

Realistically how many more points do people feel we need to accumulate to secure a playoff spot?

With the form other teams are showing I would aim for 6 wins from the 12 - taking us to 78 points, which in seasons gone by has been plenty enough to get over the line.

Where will those 6 points come from? I would target:
- Wolves (H)
- Blackburn (H)
- Rotherham (H)
- Forest (A)
- Wigan (H)
- Burton (A)

This means that any slip ups in these fixtures would mean us needing to get results from the other (arguably tougher) games.

Interested to get everyone's thoughts...

The last four games you mention there are our last four games. If we go into those games having only taken 6 other points, 1) we would be out of the play-offs and chasing, 2: it would be difficult to see us winning the last four if we have only won two games between now and the 17th April. Of course, if we are still in the play-offs heading into those last four games, we should stay in there.

I would back us to take points off teams when we are playing at home. We have only lost twice at home all season, so really should be trying to take at least a point of Newcastle and beat Leeds. Also, we need to take points in our games away at our rivals (Preston, Sheffield Wed, Norwich). We give all these teams three points and our task becomes much harder. We don't want to be playing Wigan and Burton knowing we have to win to reach the play-offs, with both teams fighting for their lives.