Fulham prediction thread

[grey_squirrel]

I tossed a coin twice. Reading being 'heads' (obviously)

Fulham to win first game
Reading to win second game.

Tossed it a third time for the decider and Fulham won overall.

That's about as mathematical as you can get with the Play Off probabilities.

[Half Biscuit]

All this talk of "it's a completely different game in the play-offs", "they were 6th for a reason", "the pressure will be on them" etc. just masks the fact that they are a damned good team, probably the best in the Championship in the last half of the season (no stats to back that up...)

Ok so that's a load of bollocks like your whole post then?

We will progress, the game on Saturday will be very tight but I think we'll come through at 0-0

Well, no... Unlike the rest of my post, it miraculously turned out to be true, John.

[BR0B0T]

That's about as mathematical as you can get with the Play Off probabilities.

obvs that's not true
currently, the market thinks

fulham have a 60% chance of qual
reading have a 40% chance of qual

[IceIceGylfi]

0-1 away
0-1 home

I think we'll nick a win at their place with an early goal and try to hang on for dear life in the rest of the game and the second leg, but eventually Fulham will breakthrough.

We win on penalties; Kermorgant scoring a panenka

[alfie9]

I think we'll draw away and win comfortably at home, setting up a false play-off final against Sheffield Wednesday.

[Ian Royal]

That's about as mathematical as you can get with the Play Off probabilities.

obvs that's not true
currently, the market thinks

fulham have a 60% chance of qual
reading have a 40% chance of qual

Although there's no reason to think the market is any more accurate than tossing a coin.

[BR0B0T]

That's about as mathematical as you can get with the Play Off probabilities.

obvs that's not true
currently, the market thinks

fulham have a 60% chance of qual
reading have a 40% chance of qual

Although there's no reason to think the market is any more accurate than tossing a coin.

apart from historical data

[BR0B0T]

or tossing a coin that lands 60% heads and 40% tails

[Ian Royal]

obvs that's not true
currently, the market thinks

fulham have a 60% chance of qual
reading have a 40% chance of qual

Although there's no reason to think the market is any more accurate than tossing a coin.

apart from historical data

How'd they do on their odds for us making the play offs?

[BR0B0T]

Although there's no reason to think the market is any more accurate than tossing a coin.

apart from historical data

How'd they do on their odds for us making the play offs?

It's probabilistic m8...we had a small probability of making the
play-offs at the start of the season. This changed after 46 events.

I have no idea what you'll be doing in ten years time but i'm 99%
confident that tomorrow you'll be a pcunt....etc

[BR0B0T]

I h8 using that wink emotion....just wanted to let you know
that I'm defo joking. I'm never serious with any of my posts

[Ian Royal]

apart from historical data

How'd they do on their odds for us making the play offs?

It's probabilistic m8...we had a small probability of making the
play-offs at the start of the season. This changed after 46 events.

I have no idea what you'll be doing in ten years time but i'm 99%
confident that tomorrow you'll be a pcunt....etc

As I recall, the odds on us making the play offs were comparatively long only a month ago.

I'm pretty sure I'll be a pcunt in ten years... outside chance of a dead pcunt.

[BR0B0T]

How'd they do on their odds for us making the play offs?

It's probabilistic m8...we had a small probability of making the
play-offs at the start of the season. This changed after 46 events.

I have no idea what you'll be doing in ten years time but i'm 99%
confident that tomorrow you'll be a pcunt....etc

As I recall, the odds on us making the play offs were comparatively long only a month ago.

I'm pretty sure I'll be a pcunt in ten years... outside chance of a dead pcunt.

Depends on how you're rating teams. Some ELO based rating systems
use much older data i.e. last seasons. Goal expectation models would
also be pretty shit for reading as would something using margin of victory.

we've had 7 heavy defeats this season...defo something of an outlier

[download]

Not sure what the exact score will be, but Piazon will score the winner 2nd half at the Mad Stad with 5 minutes to go, celebrating in front of the corner of the East and North Stand.

[Oilroyal]

Although there's no reason to think the market is any more accurate than tossing a coin.

apart from historical data

How'd they do on their odds for us making the play offs?

I took 19/1 back in August - sky bet

[BR0B0T]

apart from historical data

How'd they do on their odds for us making the play offs?

I took 19/1 back in August - sky bet

They gave us a 5% chance of making the playoffs,
so if we ran the league 100 times we'd expect to
make the play-offs 5 times (stating the obvs, obvs)

[genome]

Our Instagram account has been invaded by Fulham fans

[Nameless]

Our Instagram account has been invaded by Fulham fans

Would not have known they were Fulham fans without the descriptions to be honest....

[10539.4 Miles Away]

We win on penalties; Kermorgant scoring a panenka

Lol, If he has the stones to try that again (and pulls it off) then he will officially be my favourite player ever.

[Stranded]

We win on penalties; Kermorgant scoring a panenka

Lol, If he has the stones to try that again (and pulls it off) then he will officially be my favourite player ever.

Seriously hope it's not needed - don't think I could handle watching this happen again:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CeLuXuHtq8