Relegation Watch

[genome]

I'd take Big Hec back here. He'd be quite effective sat in front of our defence IMO

[paultheroyal]

Won’t want Bolton vs Barnsley being a draw. Barnsley win would be ideal, beat Sunderland and that will probably be us safe for what has been a shocking season but least it’s still alive!

[windermereROYAL]

Won’t want Bolton vs Barnsley being a draw. Barnsley win would be ideal, beat Sunderland and that will probably be us safe for what has been a shocking season but least it’s still alive!

I dont get the logic there. Barnsley have a game in hand against Forest who are in freefall. a Bolton win, or a draw coupled with a win for us Saturday would give us a 7/8 point gap over Barsnsley with 3 (4 for them)0 to play.

[Stockport Royal]

I bet Hull fans are kicking themselves at what might have been this season. Looks like they've clicked - consecutive 4-0 and 5-0 wins. I think they will be a force next season.

Thought a few months ago that they looked on paper way too good to be where they were. Problem for them is they will be losing some of their better players in the summer, either out of contract (Dawson, Hernandez) or end of loan (Aina, Hector). If Bowen goes as well, thats a big gap left, with no funds coming in for them (except Bowen)

Also depends on what their owners want to do.

I read somewhere that 9 of their starting 11 in the last game are out of contract in the summer, with no sign of new deals for any of them due to financial implications etc.

[John Smith]

I bet Hull fans are kicking themselves at what might have been this season. Looks like they've clicked - consecutive 4-0 and 5-0 wins. I think they will be a force next season.

Thought a few months ago that they looked on paper way too good to be where they were. Problem for them is they will be losing some of their better players in the summer, either out of contract (Dawson, Hernandez) or end of loan (Aina, Hector). If Bowen goes as well, thats a big gap left, with no funds coming in for them (except Bowen)

Also depends on what their owners want to do.

I read somewhere that 9 of their starting 11 in the last game are out of contract in the summer, with no sign of new deals for any of them due to financial implications etc.

They also have Nigel Adkins as their manager

[Zip]

I bet Hull fans are kicking themselves at what might have been this season. Looks like they've clicked - consecutive 4-0 and 5-0 wins. I think they will be a force next season.

Thought a few months ago that they looked on paper way too good to be where they were. Problem for them is they will be losing some of their better players in the summer, either out of contract (Dawson, Hernandez) or end of loan (Aina, Hector). If Bowen goes as well, thats a big gap left, with no funds coming in for them (except Bowen)

Also depends on what their owners want to do.

I read somewhere that 9 of their starting 11 in the last game are out of contract in the summer, with no sign of new deals for any of them due to financial implications etc.

I doubt whether they will be lucky enough to get Harry Wilson loan next season either. He has been a big reason why they have improved

[The Reverend]

Won’t want Bolton vs Barnsley being a draw. Barnsley win would be ideal, beat Sunderland and that will probably be us safe for what has been a shocking season but least it’s still alive!

I dont get the logic there. Barnsley have a game in hand against Forest who are in freefall. a Bolton win, or a draw coupled with a win for us Saturday would give us a 7/8 point gap over Barsnsley with 3 (4 for them)0 to play.

Show your workings please Paul

Would think both teams dropping 2 points > either grabbing 3

I want Barnsley to win though, and Bolton to pick up points in subsequent games. It'd be bloody marvellous to see Sunderland and Birmingham in the 3rd tier at the same time.

[genome]

Won’t want Bolton vs Barnsley being a draw. Barnsley win would be ideal, beat Sunderland and that will probably be us safe for what has been a shocking season but least it’s still alive!

I dont get the logic there. Barnsley have a game in hand against Forest who are in freefall. a Bolton win, or a draw coupled with a win for us Saturday would give us a 7/8 point gap over Barsnsley with 3 (4 for them)0 to play.

Show your workings please Paul

Would think both teams dropping 2 points > either grabbing 3

I want Barnsley to win though, and Bolton to pick up points in subsequent games. It'd be bloody marvellous to see Sunderland and Birmingham in the 3rd tier at the same time.

I think Paul's logic is on the proviso that Barnsley win their game in hand. If that happens, then Bolton will be the team sat in 22nd, and subsequently the team you'd prefer to lose all their games.

[Sutekh]

Presuming Sunderland and Burton are now dead and buried, then all I want to see is one (or more) of Barnsley, Birmingham and Bolton consistently lose.

Looking at the Barnsley/Bolton game, I’m not sure what the best result actually is. A draw sees 2 points dropped for both teams which is excellent but then a Barnsley win screws Bolton over by 3 points and, if things don’t go well v Sunderland, sees them still 3 points behind with a lousy goal difference and no game in hand. A win for Bolton though makes Barnsley’s game in hand irrelevant to Reading - so long as Reading win that is.

Think the best result of that game depends on what Reading end up with against Sunderland.

Overall, looking at the games left for all three teams, Birmingham would appear to have the hardest run while Bolton have the easiest run. Thinking that anything more than 44 points will keep a team up this season, so let’s hope Reading can beat Sunderland and then get something from one of the remaining games to be sure.

Cue now everyone winning every game possible and making it all very squeaky for as long as they can

[tidus_mi2]

Barnsley are a real wildcard when it comes to working out who will take that third spot, they have a game in hand and are the only team who can realistically better our goal difference.

[The Reverend]

Whatever else happens, thank God the board made a change when they did. And thank God for Paul Clement.

Else we'd 100% still be sat on 36 points, third from bottom and sinking faster than that crowdfunded submarine.

I'll tell you what, this relegation battle has reignited my passion for the game and I'm actually looking forward to going to the Mad on Saturday.

[CountryRoyal]

Whatever else happens, thank God the board made a change when they did. And thank God for Paul Clement.

Else we'd 100% still be sat on 36 points, third from bottom and sinking faster than that crowdfunded submarine.

I'll tell you what, this relegation battle has reignited my passion for the game and I'm actually looking forward to going to the Mad on Saturday.

I agree, and it's nice going into games now knowing that we have just as much chance of winning as we do having a shot on target.

[Silver Fox]

Apropos of nothing much we’re Now 20/1 for the drop

[leon]

Apropos of nothing much we’re Now 20/1 for the drop

Imagine. If we'd sacked Stam last June we'd be 12th now.

[Zip]

Apropos of nothing much we’re Now 20/1 for the drop

Imagine. If we'd sacked Stam last June we'd be 12th now.

......and with a serious disciplinary record

[Stranded]

Apropos of nothing much we’re Now 20/1 for the drop

Imagine. If we'd sacked Stam last June we'd be 12th now.

......and with a serious disciplinary record

Well, we'd have a different manager as Clement had just guided Swansea to safety.

[Snowflake Royal]

Thought a few months ago that they looked on paper way too good to be where they were. Problem for them is they will be losing some of their better players in the summer, either out of contract (Dawson, Hernandez) or end of loan (Aina, Hector). If Bowen goes as well, thats a big gap left, with no funds coming in for them (except Bowen)

Also depends on what their owners want to do.

I read somewhere that 9 of their starting 11 in the last game are out of contract in the summer, with no sign of new deals for any of them due to financial implications etc.

They also have Nigel Adkins as their manager

Yes, I remember people declaring Hull nailed on relegation certs when he was appointed.

[Dr_Hfuhruhurr]

Apropos of nothing much we’re Now 20/1 for the drop

As an update:
There are 4/5 games left.
Sunderland and Burton have to win 4 more games than us - (OK then!)
Barnsley have to win two more games than us and all three teams immediately below us have to finish the season stronger than us, despite, outside of Sunderland and Burton, being the worst teams in the league.
We probably need one more result, but have a home game against the bottom of the table, and a home game against a Team that are now mathematically impossible to go either down or up. (Although, as always, remember HNA rules that as this team are above us in the league they will beat us.)

If anything, 20-1 is a bit tight.

The Barnsley/Bolton outcome is irrelevant btw. 45 points is easily safe enough, and 43 probably might be. We have enough opportunities to do that. Or we should do.

[Zip]

Dare I start this thread and tempt fate? Oh well, it's done now.

Done a quick review of the LCh table after c.32 games and the final table for the last 10 seasons.

This suggests we might escape the drop with 45-47 points, effectively if we maintain our current PPG of 1.03 we'll do just enough to survive.

Flame away ....

I think Straps’s conclusion that 45-47;is going to prove correct. I reckon 45 will be enough.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Hardly a difficult conclusion to come to - the usual bench marks have always been a point a game just about keeps you up and 2 points a game gets you up.

The best outcome for us in the Barnsley Vs Bolton game on Sat is a home win, with Bolton then playing Wolves next game that would mean a win on Saturday and we will just about be there.

In fact I think a Barnsley win could just about do for Bolton given the Wolves game following this, their dreadful away form, and then having lost 5 on the spin, 2 against big relegation rivals (sorry Parky).