by Snowball »
25 Apr 2018 10:04
44 -18 43 Reading
44 -30 43 Birmingham
44 -34 40 Bolton
44 -23 38 Barnsley
44 -44 38 Burton
Burton v Bolton
Barnsley v Brentford
QPR v Birmingham
Reading v Ipswich
Birmingham v Fulham
Bolton v Forest
Cardiff v Reading
Derby v Barnsley
Preston v Burton
If we were to lose at home to Ipswich, what might that mean?
I may be wrong in any of the following. Feel free to correct!
Scenario 1
Barnsley could beat Brentford and be 2 points behind us going into the last game.
Burton could beat Bolton and be 2 points behind us going into the last game.
OK, Bolton couldn’t then catch us (because of goal difference)
but we would need to avoid defeat at Cardiff in case Burton & Barnsley
each won their last game, sending us down with Bolton.
Scenario 2.
We lose, Burton-Bolton is a draw, Barnsley win.
Now Burton cannot catch us but a Bolton win in their last game
leaves them on 44, meaning we would again need a draw at Cardiff.
Scenario 3.
We lose to Ipswich, Barnsley win and Bolton WIN at Barnsley.
Now Bolton need a draw in their last game to be on 44. A win in that game would
put them on 46 points. It’s conceivable that we could need a win at Cardiff.
Scenario 4.
We lose. Barnsley and Burton win their last two games.
We would need a draw at Cardiff to be above Burton on GD.
If Barnsley won their last two games, a total of, say 3-0, and we had lost 0-2 to Ipswich, our GDs would be identical. 48-68 AND goals scored, so we would need a SCORE-DRAW at Cardiff.
Meanwhile Bolton, even if they win their last game, would be about 14 goals worse off on GD (less our 5-0 defeat at Cardiff and their 2-0 win (say) but we could be third bottom, going down with Sunderland and Bolton.
I left Birmingham out of this. They could easily lose their last two games (as we might) but they would still be well behind us on GD.
But the point is, if we lose to Ipswich then we open the door to Birmingham, even if they lose at QPR.
Presuming our defeat at Cardiff, they would need a point in their last game, at home to Fulham.
I DON’T think Barnsley will win their last two games. I think it’s very unlikely.
If Burton win their “much easier” game (home to Bolton), they just might manage the great escape with a win at Preston.
Birmingham could easily lose their last two games and still go down (they are 40/1) but I fancy them to get at least 1 point.
But my thoughts are this. What odds would you want for Reading to lose to Ipswich, Barnsley beat Brentford, Burton-Bolton is not a draw? 10/1? 20/1?
If we lost to Ipswich and Bolton/Barnsley won… (even if Birmingham lost 1-0)
45 -19 GD 43 Points Reading
45 -30 GD 43 Points Birmingham
45 -33 GD 43 Points Bolton
45 -22 GD 41 Points Barnsley
We would go into the last game knowing that a defeat could mean THREE teams could leap-frog us, Birmingham and Bolton by drawing, Barnsley by winning their final game.
Of course we could lose to Ipswich and the other teams lose too, but a loss to Ipswich would leave us wide-open to relegation on the final day. We are currently 100-1 to go down. That to me is almost like saying you can get 100-1 for Ipswich to win at The Madejski.
To re-iterate I DON’T think Barnsley will win two, I think Burton just might.
Bolton are poor but should they manage to win at Burton, they may get a second wind, then get something from their final game.
We absolutely must get something against Ipswich!
. what does it matter?. it didnt happen.
