Clement

[Denver Royal]

Some good points, as usual.

Yes, in that specific comparison, we could say (with a presumed managerial bounce?) that a new manager may (or may not) be doing better as it relates to a specific period in the previous manager's tenure.
And that furthermore, we might also say that whether the new manager ultimately turns out to be better longer term (overall record), remains to be seen.

As far as off the field issues, these could be a factor. However, are you of the opinion (held by some) that no other manager could do any better?

[Hoop Blah]

Could no other manager do better than Clement with this bunch? Of course they could, they could do a little worse as well, but that would be pretty hard.

Could we get one of those managers who could do better? Maybe. It’s very difficult to know though and very difficult to choose a manager who’s going to succeed. If it wasn’t difficult then the average life span of a Championship manager would be longer than 9 months or whatever it is.

Will sacking Clement solve our problems? Maybe, but so could sticking with him and giving him the chance to manage the clear out and rebuild that the squad clearly needs.

Am I convinced Clement is the man to do that? No. As many said, including me I think, he may well be another example of an excellent coach/assistant who just can’t cut it as a manager.

Having said that though, constantly sacking managers without someone successful above them (Hammond being a good example) probably isn’t going to improve things either.

[Emeraldroyal]

Could no other manager do better than Clement with this bunch? Of course they could, they could do a little worse as well, but that would be pretty hard.

Could we get one of those managers who could do better? Maybe. It’s very difficult to know though and very difficult to choose a manager who’s going to succeed. If it wasn’t difficult then the average life span of a Championship manager would be longer than 9 months or whatever it is.

Will sacking Clement solve our problems? Maybe, but so could sticking with him and giving him the chance to manage the clear out and rebuild that the squad clearly needs.

Am I convinced Clement is the man to do that? No. As many said, including me I think, he may well be another example of an excellent coach/assistant who just can’t cut it as a manager.

Having said that though, constantly sacking managers without someone successful above them (Hammond being a good example) probably isn’t going to improve things either.

Very fair and magnanimous post there.
I’m for getting rid of PC. I didn’t feel he was the right appointment at the time and he’s had enough time to improve it and hasn’t. Cliche bingo but it’s a results business as they say.
As somebody else alluded to he’s probably got two more games.
I hope he proves me wrong but I think I’m accurate when I say, we’ll be hunting a new manager by Christmas or just after...

[Brain Traysers]

A while back (page 9 to be precise) I posted a chart showing that under Clement we looked to have tightened up at the back, and at least narrowed the gap between the amount of xG we concede and the amount we generate per game. It wasn't an amazing turnaround, but at least offered some promising signs.

But in the last few games it has gone very very badly. The 3.8 xG conceded against Swansea was the highest amount we have conceded in a game covered by that source (fivethirtyeight). That 3.8 xG conceded is 98.5th percentile bad (away teams only, 9000 observations), with the xGD of -2.8 goals only a smidge better at 97.7th percentile bad for an away team.

As a result, our 6 game rolling xG conceded is now higher than it was when Stam was sacked, and is now above 2 goals per game, higher than it was at any point last season. On the other side, our 'xG for' has been relatively stable at around a goal a game, meaning our xG difference is now -1.26 goals per game. Our rolling xG difference has only been worse once over this period, after Clements 4th game in charge (1-0 away loss at Fulham).



Half a season into a new tenure, and things look statistically worse than when he took over. The only saving grace is that those 6 games are against some in form teams (QPR and Birmingham), and only 2 home games.

I'm not 100% he has to go yet, but after checking those numbers, I'm 98.5%.

[Denver Royal]

Thanks, always enjoy these. Listen and learn.

In your first paragraph, may I ask what particular segment(s) you were comparing to, and why, and the relevance there of. Thanks.

[Brain Traysers]

Thanks, always enjoy these. Listen and learn.

In your first paragraph, may I ask what particular segment(s) you were comparing to, and why, and the relevance there of. Thanks.

Cheers Denver. The last time I posted it was 6 games into the season, but I think there are 4 periods that tell the story of PCs 23 games so far:
- The end of Stam From the middle of last season to his sacking, when the 'xG against' line gradually increased from 1.0 to 1.9 goals per game. We steadily got worse and worse defensively.
- The shoring up Clements first 12 games, taking us to the 4th game this season (away at Blackburn). The defense became more solid - rolling 'xG against' decreased from 1.9 to 1.3 - but the consequence was 'xG for' also dropping off, from 1.2 xG per game to 0.8.
- Promising signs Over the next 6 games or so our rolling 'xG against' was relatively flat, while 'xG for' recovered slightly. After the visit of Brentford, we had almost been competitive in the prior 6 games, with the spread between the xG lines at its narrowest for around 30 games. Essentially in those 6 games, we only conceded 0.1 xG per game more than we generated. Sure enough we won 8 of our current 12 points here (we have only picked up 20 under PC's 23 games), scoring 11 goals (from 7.1 xG) and conceding 9 (from 8.1 xG).
- The unwind Just as things started to look promising, they went bad. Rolling 'xG against' has blown up from 1.3 per game to 2.2, while 'xG for' has actually decreased, suggesting the increased defensive fragility hasn't come with a silver lining of better chance generation. The further apart these lines are, the less probable it is to nick results - I mentioned how bad the 3.8 vs 1.0 xG figures from the Swansea game were... in 393 games where the xG difference between the teams exceeded 2.5 goals only teams 39 avoided defeat, and of them 6 managed to steal a win.

[The Green Programme]

My first post.

Season ticket holder and supporter since Walsall at home in 1970, aged 7 years.

Experienced the good, the bad and the ugly and so much enjoyed the incredible success since SJM’s bold, brave and priceless leadership and our peak through 2005 to 2009. What a management team and what a squad of players we had too.

All great teams have a strong spine;
Manager, keeper, CM and central striker. All our great teams have had.

All leaders; all fearless and all driven.

Our Manager seems an honest man who is discreet and knowledgeable. What I see, I like, as a person.

But he does not inspire; he is not fearless and driven and thus he is not a leader... yet.

He may develop that steely winning mentality through this adversity... maybe? But he has no time left to develop it.

We cannot afford to be inside the bottom three after the Ipswich game.

Right now we are where we are because our Management team are fearful and our squad lack the required ‘spine’ and play with ‘fear’ and the fans in the ground can feel it.

Clement has two games; or perhaps only one if we lose on Saturday.

[Dr_Hfuhruhurr]

Which 'era' are you referring to and what, if anything, is different or unique about it with Clement?
As far as the club's 'current situation', Clement was going to be a 'massive upgrade' with player's that 'have talent', some think his summer signings were good, and quite a few predicted Top 10?
Has he fallen below your expectations thus far?

Era? This ownership, senior management, run of seasons in the Championship. Call it where you want. For me it's essentially the post-Zingaravich era as since then the club has been in a general decline having lacked the excellent stewardship of Sir John.

I don't really buy into any hyperbole that suggests that the current crop of players (over the last 3 or 4 years) are any great talents I'm afraid. They're decent enough, but I don't see them ever doing much in this league, especially with the apparent lack of leadership from above.

Fan's predicting top 10, well that's just positive thinking IMO. Predicting where a side will finish in the Championship is a bit of a lottery and I'd guess a lot more where predicting relegation than they were play-offs or even top-10.

As for Clement, of course he's disappointed as any fan should hope that a new manager has a positive impact. Has he fallen below my expectations? Yeah, I'd say he has. He's improved the way we play but unfortunately results haven't followed and we're still pretty crap. As alluded to above, I think that it's the general state of malaise at the club that is having the biggest bearing on performance at the moment, but that doesn't give the manager a free ride.

None of that changes the fact that the most appropriate comparison for Clements performance is that of Stam last season.

I think this is a very good post and reflects a lot of what Im thinking.
Im probably completely 50/50 on the matter.

On the one hand, I think its fair for him to have at least one transfer window without Tevreden. The idea in the last window of two strikers were correct, even if we're debating the quality of what was achieved. Maybe we can get somebody better without Tevreden, or maybe Clement on his own is just as ineffective. Part of me wants to test this idea, because I think replacing Clement with an effective manager may not be as easy as you want, and so our answer may be to keep Clement and build a squad that Clement trusts. I think we also have to show at least intention to sell. Barrow and Aluko, for instance. if Clement doesnt want Barrow, then show intent to sellm him. If Aluko doesnt fit into our squad, then show intent to sel himl. Its clear we need a churn of players, so we should be proactive about that.

On the other hand, we could give Clement the Transfer Window and end up with another 4 players that dont make an immediate impact in the first XI. As that is our Worst Case Scenario, we should try to avoid it. My over-riding problem with Clement is how many times he changes the first XI and, in particular, the number of times he changes an above average player (for our squad) with a below average player. He doesnt particularly convince me he is a good judge of player. In which case he shouldnt be given the transfer window and we should be looking to replace him before the window opens, i.e. now.

Two other tangential thoughts.
Im still not convinced any replacement would do significantly better, certainly not in the short term - the squad is garbage.
Looks like another contract payout to a manager. Great.

[Stranded]

Well given we are at Tuesday morning without any announcement of a sacking I would expect that the club are backing Clement for now. The next two home games are incredibly winnable but we simply musn't lose to Ipswich. If we get to the international break with 4 or 6 points from these games then I think Clement will get a while longer, 3 or less esp if it includes a loss to Ipswich and he is likely to be gone.

For what it's worth, I am neutral on him staying or going . I see pros and cons to both but if he does go, I hope we try and get the manager we really want and not just go for the best of the unemployed bunch.

[Old Man Andrews]

He should have gone but Gourlay appointed him. You really think Big Ron wants to look like he has failed? Sadly Clement will stay in charge for the next two games at least. The bloke is like a Maths teacher who also does PE when the regular teacher calls in sick.

[The Green Programme]

Well given we are at Tuesday morning without any announcement of a sacking I would expect that the club are backing Clement for now. The next two home games are incredibly winnable but we simply musn't lose to Ipswich. If we get to the international break with 4 or 6 points from these games then I think Clement will get a while longer, 3 or less esp if it includes a loss to Ipswich and he is likely to be gone.

For what it's worth, I am neutral on him staying or going . I see pros and cons to both but if he does go, I hope we try and get the manager we really want and not just go for the best of the unemployed bunch.

I agree with all the above and would add that
1 - Bruce is certainly not the best of the unemployed bunch and
2 - until the team has a ‘spine’ of powerful characters that lead, it will continue to struggle; right now, we’re missing at least 3 of the 4 required to create that ‘spine’; Moore being the exception.

[RoyalBlue]

Is he still here?

Looks like I'll be taking Saturday off then and my Royals Football this weekend will be the Reading FC Women game, coincidentally also, against Bristol City on Sunday.

Best part of being a season ticket holder this season is free admission to the women's games. High quality players (numerous International players), playing good football, scoring plenty of goals and able to compete with the best teams in the country.

[Orion]

He's wrongly giving him the city game I imagine. Lose that and a quick appointment before the Ipswich game should see whoever it is get off Tina food start.

City are far better than Millwall and they who'd have beaten us so I'd expect an announcement on Monday.

[72 bus]

Is he still here?

Looks like I'll be taking Saturday off then and my Royals Football this weekend will be the Reading FC Women game, coincidentally also, against Bristol City on Sunday.

Best part of being a season ticket holder this season is free admission to the women's games. High quality players (numerous International players), playing good football, scoring plenty of goals and able to compete with the best teams in the country.

How many do you think will turn up for the women's game ?, it's free cos nobody gives fukk, much rather watch them scissoring each other in the baths after the game

[Royal Rother]

How sad.

[Royal Rother]

Is he still here?

Who? Sir John Madejski?

Unfortunately not in a position of power, no.

[BR0B0T]

Is he still here?

Looks like I'll be taking Saturday off then and my Royals Football this weekend will be the Reading FC Women game, coincidentally also, against Bristol City on Sunday.

Best part of being a season ticket holder this season is free admission to the women's games. High quality players (numerous International players), playing good football, scoring plenty of goals and able to compete with the best teams in the country.

It really isn't good quality...I watched the highlights program after MotD

Wish they'd make the goal size in proportion to size of the females

[Royal Rother]

Oh God, here we go again.

[Lower West]

A while back (page 9 to be precise) I posted a chart showing that under Clement we looked to have tightened up at the back, and at least narrowed the gap between the amount of xG we concede and the amount we generate per game. It wasn't an amazing turnaround, but at least offered some promising signs.

But in the last few games it has gone very very badly. The 3.8 xG conceded against Swansea was the highest amount we have conceded in a game covered by that source (fivethirtyeight). That 3.8 xG conceded is 98.5th percentile bad (away teams only, 9000 observations), with the xGD of -2.8 goals only a smidge better at 97.7th percentile bad for an away team.

As a result, our 6 game rolling xG conceded is now higher than it was when Stam was sacked, and is now above 2 goals per game, higher than it was at any point last season. On the other side, our 'xG for' has been relatively stable at around a goal a game, meaning our xG difference is now -1.26 goals per game. Our rolling xG difference has only been worse once over this period, after Clements 4th game in charge (1-0 away loss at Fulham).



Half a season into a new tenure, and things look statistically worse than when he took over. The only saving grace is that those 6 games are against some in form teams (QPR and Birmingham), and only 2 home games.

I'm not 100% he has to go yet, but after checking those numbers, I'm 98.5%.

Stam ingrained keep ball into the team. Easy not to concede playing that way. As was found out at the end. Teams sat back and waited for the mistakes.

[NewCorkSeth]

Paraphrasing here but Clement said not to blame Gourley as he has nothing to do with the tactics, players, performances etc.

He's really calling himself the only person to blame there..