BFTG Wigan.

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Armadillo Roadkill
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Re: BFTG Wigan.

by Armadillo Roadkill » 27 Nov 2018 14:58

You need to be pretty wedded to your cynisism if you refute Snowball's case here. Using cold bare facts that are pretty much impossible to argue with he demonstrates a discernible, if frustratingly slow and intermittent, improvement.

We can see an improvement - and Snowbers provides evidence to back up what we can see.

Good work.

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Re: BFTG Wigan.

by Victor Meldrew » 27 Nov 2018 15:11

Armadillo Roadkill You need to be pretty wedded to your cynisism if you refute Snowball's case here. Using cold bare facts that are pretty much impossible to argue with he demonstrates a discernible, if frustratingly slow and intermittent, improvement.

We can see an improvement - and Snowbers provides evidence to back up what we can see.

Good work.

Glad you can see improvement with us drawing against the bottom club in our last home game.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

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Re: BFTG Wigan.

by Hound » 27 Nov 2018 15:24

Victor Meldrew
Armadillo Roadkill You need to be pretty wedded to your cynisism if you refute Snowball's case here. Using cold bare facts that are pretty much impossible to argue with he demonstrates a discernible, if frustratingly slow and intermittent, improvement.

We can see an improvement - and Snowbers provides evidence to back up what we can see.

Good work.

Glad you can see improvement with us drawing against the bottom club in our last home game.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.


well we lost to the team who are now second bottom in that first 6, so signs of improvement there

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Re: BFTG Wigan.

by Victor Meldrew » 27 Nov 2018 15:26

Hound
Victor Meldrew
Armadillo Roadkill You need to be pretty wedded to your cynisism if you refute Snowball's case here. Using cold bare facts that are pretty much impossible to argue with he demonstrates a discernible, if frustratingly slow and intermittent, improvement.

We can see an improvement - and Snowbers provides evidence to back up what we can see.

Good work.

Glad you can see improvement with us drawing against the bottom club in our last home game.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.


well we lost to the team who are now second bottom in that first 6, so signs of improvement there


Or them getting worse.
Let's hope for a win tonight and I will then happily go along with the improvement view.

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Re: BFTG Wigan.

by Snowball » 27 Nov 2018 16:02

Victor Meldrew
Armadillo Roadkill You need to be pretty wedded to your cynisism if you refute Snowball's case here. Using cold bare facts that are pretty much impossible to argue with he demonstrates a discernible, if frustratingly slow and intermittent, improvement.

We can see an improvement - and Snowbers provides evidence to back up what we can see.

Good work.

Glad you can see improvement with us drawing against the bottom club in our last home game.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.



It's quite ridiculous to point to single games or a pair of games when judging a team's long-term
worth/improvement. A side can go on a winning run, beat all-comers then draw 0-0 or lose 0-1
to a side at the bottom of the league. It happens every season in every league. It's called chance
and it's why bookies make money.

Like "Oh, Wigan have lost their last four games" ("THEREFORE" we should beat them....)

except that those games were against the sides currently 2nd, 3rd, 5th...

Middlesboro 2-0 Wigan
Wigan 1-2 Leeds
Sheffield United 4-2 Wigan
Millwall 2-1 Wigan

The game before that they beat WBA 1-0 (WBA currently 4th)

So in their last five games before drawing with Reading they played

2nd-3rd-4th-5th (and 21st)
Last edited by Snowball on 27 Nov 2018 17:53, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: BFTG Wigan.

by Snowflake Royal » 27 Nov 2018 16:42

Victor Meldrew
Armadillo Roadkill You need to be pretty wedded to your cynisism if you refute Snowball's case here. Using cold bare facts that are pretty much impossible to argue with he demonstrates a discernible, if frustratingly slow and intermittent, improvement.

We can see an improvement - and Snowbers provides evidence to back up what we can see.

Good work.

Glad you can see improvement with us drawing against the bottom club in our last home game.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

The key is not to obsess about who the points come against, or fall into thinking that some games should bring points and others shouldn't. It's the points that matter. Beating your rivals is far less important than not losing to them.

In this case, beauty is not in the eye of the beholder, it is in the cold hard objective facts that have been laid out.

Quite why you'd agree with objective fact based on one win, rather than six - twelve results is beyond me.

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Re: BFTG Wigan.

by Victor Meldrew » 27 Nov 2018 17:15

Snowflake Royal
Victor Meldrew
Armadillo Roadkill You need to be pretty wedded to your cynisism if you refute Snowball's case here. Using cold bare facts that are pretty much impossible to argue with he demonstrates a discernible, if frustratingly slow and intermittent, improvement.

We can see an improvement - and Snowbers provides evidence to back up what we can see.

Good work.

Glad you can see improvement with us drawing against the bottom club in our last home game.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

The key is not to obsess about who the points come against, or fall into thinking that some games should bring points and others shouldn't. It's the points that matter. Beating your rivals is far less important than not losing to them.

In this case, beauty is not in the eye of the beholder, it is in the cold hard objective facts that have been laid out.

Quite why you'd agree with objective fact based on one win, rather than six - twelve results is beyond me.


I'm just arguing for arguing's sake.
There can be no disputing what has happened already-as I see it we don't know yet whether a new trend has started or ended.
If we get 3 points tonight is that the start of un upward trend and and if we lose is it the start of a downward trend?

I would sooner just look at the table and at the moment I am not deliriously happy how this season has gone but would be very pleased if tonight we win again at Elland Road which sets a 2 match trend from last season to this.
URRRRZZZZZZ

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Re: BFTG Wigan.

by Snowball » 27 Nov 2018 18:17

Sorry, I just don't get your reasoning.

It's almost irrelevant what happens at Leeds. It is A GAME, one game, it's not a run of games. Just as the SHAME of drawing at home to Ipswich, isn't shame, isn't a tragedy, isn't indicative of much at all. Sh!t happens. Count the times over the seasons when we have been expecting an easy win and drawn 1-1 or worse, lost 0-1... Think of those times when we have had NO CHANCE, and sprung a surprise away win at a very tough venue. It's football.

What matters is the long-term points-per-game.

We will win some where we should lose, lose a few we ought to have won, steal draws and have draws stolen from us.

Our LONGEST run of games undefeated is the three coming up to tonight's game (Bristol, Ipswich, Wigan).

Even if we lose tonight, our longest run will still be extremely recent. ("One defeat in 4")

I don't worry in the slightest about losing at Leeds. I EXPECT us to be beaten. I just hope for them to be off par, us to play 10% better, and maybe sneak a draw or (Heaven help us!) a win. But that is just hoping that the result is "against the grain", contrary to expectations.

As we are not a promotion-chasing side, we should expect away defeats at most of the top eight. Any points at those places are just nice bonuses (to compensate for losing to teams like Bolton.)

A few draws and a shock win at the sides from 9-16, and more draws, maybe a couple of wins from the bottom 8.

Of 23 games away I would expect to lose about 12, win perhaps 4, and draw 7 = 19 points from 23 away. Where those points come from is immaterial except we need to hurt sides in the bottom third whenever we can.

That means we have to get 33+ points at home. 8 wins, 9 draws..., no problem (cough)

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Re: BFTG Wigan.

by Lower West » 27 Nov 2018 18:22

NewCorkSeth Oh dont get me wrong i think we have been shite for the most part and that luck has been more important than any tactics weve tried but at the end of the day points is all that matters in a relegation battle.


I'm basing my personal viewpoint on the games I've witnessed in the past 13 months. Without a full strength starting 11. We've been seriously lacking in a number of areas. Canny opposition managers seem to unpick our formation during the course of a game at will.


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Re: BFTG Wigan.

by Snowflake Royal » 27 Nov 2018 19:09

Victor Meldrew
Snowflake Royal
Victor Meldrew Glad you can see improvement with us drawing against the bottom club in our last home game.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

The key is not to obsess about who the points come against, or fall into thinking that some games should bring points and others shouldn't. It's the points that matter. Beating your rivals is far less important than not losing to them.

In this case, beauty is not in the eye of the beholder, it is in the cold hard objective facts that have been laid out.

Quite why you'd agree with objective fact based on one win, rather than six - twelve results is beyond me.


I'm just arguing for arguing's sake.
There can be no disputing what has happened already-as I see it we don't know yet whether a new trend has started or ended.
If we get 3 points tonight is that the start of un upward trend and and if we lose is it the start of a downward trend?

I would sooner just look at the table and at the moment I am not deliriously happy how this season has gone but would be very pleased if tonight we win again at Elland Road which sets a 2 match trend from last season to this.
URRRRZZZZZZ

The thing about a trend Vic, is it requires a sample size greater than 1, not only that, but not every data point has to be on the trend line.

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Re: BFTG Wigan.

by Snowball » 27 Nov 2018 23:13

On going away to Wigan (above us) and "only" getting a 0-0 draw.


Norwich, TOP, went away to Hull (second bottom) and only got a 0-0 draw.


Answer. It's not about one game but a series of games

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