MATCHWATCH : Wigan Athletic (h) sponsored by Nicky Forster

[Brain Traysers]

Because yoi can only out perform goal expectancy stats by fluke apparently.

Taking a step back, how on earth did we win that game? Either we were extremely lucky, or are secretly good enough to score on demand (2 in 10 mins) and choose not to.

Barrows goal very good, but any goal from there takes a big slice of luck- hence why he isn't able to do it every game.

A fun and excellent result given the first 80 mins notwithstanding!

That goal was made by the Wigan player taking a touch from the restart, letting someone (Baker?) nick the ball off him and start a counterattack whilst Barrow was in space to pick up the ball, turn, run and smash one in the bottom corner before they were set. That's not luck, it's engineered. Yeah, long shots from there don't go in very often, but those circumstances don't crop up often either. He did exactly what he intended, just because it was hard and from an unusual circumstance doesn't make it lucky.

I think we will have to agree to disagree on this one. At the point when Barrow struck the ball, the chance of a goal remains tiny (almost certainly <5%). Regardless of the tactics (Gomes?) and skill (Baker and Barrow) that led to the opportunity, at no point was that goal a likely outcome. If our master plan for survival is 30 yard shots for the rest of the season, we would have to be extremely lucky to score any more than a handful of goals.

That said, hindsight says it was an excellent decision to roll the dice as it paid off so handsomely. It's also entirely possible that shooting from there was the best possible action - if Infogol's 0.03 xG is realistic, then passing out wide or pumping the ball into the box could have easily been <3% likely to result in a goal - research suggests only 1.1% of crosses result in goals. That said - the fact remains that we were extremely lucky to win that game given how we performed over the game; even the best laid plans require some degree of luck to come to fruition.

[Snowflake Royal]

Taking a step back, how on earth did we win that game? Either we were extremely lucky, or are secretly good enough to score on demand (2 in 10 mins) and choose not to.

Barrows goal very good, but any goal from there takes a big slice of luck- hence why he isn't able to do it every game.

A fun and excellent result given the first 80 mins notwithstanding!

That goal was made by the Wigan player taking a touch from the restart, letting someone (Baker?) nick the ball off him and start a counterattack whilst Barrow was in space to pick up the ball, turn, run and smash one in the bottom corner before they were set. That's not luck, it's engineered. Yeah, long shots from there don't go in very often, but those circumstances don't crop up often either. He did exactly what he intended, just because it was hard and from an unusual circumstance doesn't make it lucky.

I think we will have to agree to disagree on this one. At the point when Barrow struck the ball, the chance of a goal remains tiny (almost certainly <5%). Regardless of the tactics (Gomes?) and skill (Baker and Barrow) that led to the opportunity, at no point was that goal a likely outcome. If our master plan for survival is 30 yard shots for the rest of the season, we would have to be extremely lucky to score any more than a handful of goals.

That said, hindsight says it was an excellent decision to roll the dice as it paid off so handsomely. It's also entirely possible that shooting from there was the best possible action - if Infogol's 0.03 xG is realistic, then passing out wide or pumping the ball into the box could have easily been <3% likely to result in a goal - research suggests only 1.1% of crosses result in goals. That said - the fact remains that we were extremely lucky to win that game given how we performed over the game; even the best laid plans require some degree of luck to come to fruition.

FYI. Unlikely and lucky are not the same thing.

[Brain Traysers]

Out of interest do people still refuse to believe that we are extremely lucky?

How have we been lucky at all in the past 2 seasons?

Off the pitch, certainly in terms of our injury record, we have been 'fairly' to 'very' unlucky imo.

On the pitch? Incredibly lucky indeed. All figures are based on the win or lose percentage of games given the difference between the team's xG scores from 538's database of 9000+ games with xG scores. Worked example - a game with xGs of 1.3 vs 1.8 had an xG difference of -0.5. Games with an xG difference of -0.5 (600 games from the database) resulted in a win on 23% of occasions and a loss on 47%. While it's imperfect its demonstratively more powerful for predicting future results than actual goals, shots, shots on target, possession etc.

2017/18
14th Oct 2017 - Leeds (A) 1-0 win with 16% probability of a win based purely on headline xG vs 62% probability of a loss.
28th Nov 2017 - Barnsley (H) 3-0 win with 33% probability vs 33.4% against (a very even game xG wise).
20th Feb 2018 - Forest (A) 1-1 draw despite 53% probability of a loss.
6th March 2018 - Bolton (H) 1-1 draw despite 68% probability of a loss.
30th March 2018 - QPR (H) 1-0 win with 7% probability of a win vs 78% probability of a loss.
7th April 2018 - Preston (H) 1-0 win with 30% probability of a win vs 38% probability of a loss.
6th May 2018 - Cardiff (A) 0-0 draw despite 60% probability of a loss.

2018/19
22nd Aug 2018 - Blackburn (A) 2-2 draw despite 71% probability of a loss.
15th Sept 2018 - Preston (A) 3-2 win with 13% probability of a win vs 67% probability of a loss.
29th Sept 2018 - Brentford (A) 2-2 draw despite 68% probability of a loss.
20th Oct 2018 - Millwall (H) 3-1 win with 23% probability of a win vs 47% probability of a loss.
3rd Nov 2018 - Bristol C (H) 3-2 win with 3% probability of a win vs 87% probability of a loss (oof)
24th Nov 2018 - WIgan (A) 0-0 draw despite 75% probability of a loss.
1st Dec 2018 - Stoke (H) 1-1 draw despite 57% probability of a loss.
- (then we didn't get lucky for a while and Clement got sacked) -
2nd Feb 2019 - Villa (H) 0-0 draw despite 53% probability of a loss
9th Feb 2019 - Weds (A) 0-0 draw despite 57% probability of a loss
13th Feb 2019 - Blackburn (H) 2-1 win with 23% probability of a win vs 48% probability of a loss.
24th Feb 2019 - Rotherham (H) 1-1 draw despite 53% probability of a loss
2nd March 2019 - Ipswich (A) 2-1 win despite 18% probability of a win vs 53% probability of a loss.
2nd March 2019 - Wigan (H) 2-1 win despite 9% probability of a win vs 76% probability of a loss.

Note - yes there were games where we were unlucky too! But the above suggests to me that we have been lucky in 13/30 games this season.

But heart, guts, effort, team spirit, tactics, referees etc etc...

[Brain Traysers]

FYI. Unlikely and lucky are not the same thing.

Just to be clear, are you asserting their was no luck in Barrows highly unlikely goal?

If we aren't lucky, what are we? Really good at letting teams have great chances against us (otherwise Martinez wouldn't need to make heroic saves) and simultaneous really good at taking what few chances we make? Entirely possible, but I don't buy it.

[Snowflake Royal]

FYI. Unlikely and lucky are not the same thing.

Just to be clear, are you asserting their was no luck in Barrows highly unlikely goal?

If we aren't lucky, what are we? Really good at letting teams have great chances against us (otherwise Martinez wouldn't need to make heroic saves) and simultaneous really good at taking what few chances we make? Entirely possible, but I don't buy it.

Having a keeper good at shotstopping isnt luck.

Just because we out perform your darling stat doesnt make it luck.

For every piece of good luck you claim (most of which aren't luck) there's easily something I could claim in reverse. All the injuries for example. Misses. Opposition goals. Refereeing decisions.

[Hound]

I think this is where the XG argument falls down. Martinez is a great keeper and makes great saves. That isn’t luck. That’s a good keeper

Likewise Swift can take a good free kick. He’s probably been unlucky to not score more rather than lucky to score the ones he has.

Efficiency in finishing or Barrow hitting a great 30 yarder isn’t luck. It’s skill and ability

XG doesn’t show we are especially lucky imo. It shows we have a keeper who makes good saves (inc Jaakkola in this tbf) and are efficient up front

[Platypuss]

It's going to show that Martinez is a better than average keeper and that Swift is better than average taker of direct free kicks.

[Stranded]

FYI. Unlikely and lucky are not the same thing.

Just to be clear, are you asserting their was no luck in Barrows highly unlikely goal?

If we aren't lucky, what are we? Really good at letting teams have great chances against us (otherwise Martinez wouldn't need to make heroic saves) and simultaneous really good at taking what few chances we make? Entirely possible, but I don't buy it.

I think any goal where a player has executed his decision excellently is not luck. He decided to shoot and pulled it off perfectly, if he hadn't it wouldn't have gone in. It would have been lucky if say, it had brushed off a defenders toe deflecting the ball enough to take out of the keepers reach but it was a clean, directed hit into the corner and Barrow deserves the praise and for the goal not to be belittled by calling it lucky.

By that standard any "wonder" goal is lucky rather than being an excellent piece of play.

[Nameless]

Out of interest do people still refuse to believe that we are extremely lucky?

How have we been lucky at all in the past 2 seasons?

Off the pitch, certainly in terms of our injury record, we have been 'fairly' to 'very' unlucky imo.

On the pitch? Incredibly lucky indeed. All figures are based on the win or lose percentage of games given the difference between the team's xG scores from 538's database of 9000+ games with xG scores. Worked example - a game with xGs of 1.3 vs 1.8 had an xG difference of -0.5. Games with an xG difference of -0.5 (600 games from the database) resulted in a win on 23% of occasions and a loss on 47%. While it's imperfect its demonstratively more powerful for predicting future results than actual goals, shots, shots on target, possession etc.

2017/18
14th Oct 2017 - Leeds (A) 1-0 win with 16% probability of a win based purely on headline xG vs 62% probability of a loss.
28th Nov 2017 - Barnsley (H) 3-0 win with 33% probability vs 33.4% against (a very even game xG wise).
20th Feb 2018 - Forest (A) 1-1 draw despite 53% probability of a loss.
6th March 2018 - Bolton (H) 1-1 draw despite 68% probability of a loss.
30th March 2018 - QPR (H) 1-0 win with 7% probability of a win vs 78% probability of a loss.
7th April 2018 - Preston (H) 1-0 win with 30% probability of a win vs 38% probability of a loss.
6th May 2018 - Cardiff (A) 0-0 draw despite 60% probability of a loss.

2018/19
22nd Aug 2018 - Blackburn (A) 2-2 draw despite 71% probability of a loss.
15th Sept 2018 - Preston (A) 3-2 win with 13% probability of a win vs 67% probability of a loss.
29th Sept 2018 - Brentford (A) 2-2 draw despite 68% probability of a loss.
20th Oct 2018 - Millwall (H) 3-1 win with 23% probability of a win vs 47% probability of a loss.
3rd Nov 2018 - Bristol C (H) 3-2 win with 3% probability of a win vs 87% probability of a loss (oof)
24th Nov 2018 - WIgan (A) 0-0 draw despite 75% probability of a loss.
1st Dec 2018 - Stoke (H) 1-1 draw despite 57% probability of a loss.
- (then we didn't get lucky for a while and Clement got sacked) -
2nd Feb 2019 - Villa (H) 0-0 draw despite 53% probability of a loss
9th Feb 2019 - Weds (A) 0-0 draw despite 57% probability of a loss
13th Feb 2019 - Blackburn (H) 2-1 win with 23% probability of a win vs 48% probability of a loss.
24th Feb 2019 - Rotherham (H) 1-1 draw despite 53% probability of a loss
2nd March 2019 - Ipswich (A) 2-1 win despite 18% probability of a win vs 53% probability of a loss.
2nd March 2019 - Wigan (H) 2-1 win despite 9% probability of a win vs 76% probability of a loss.

Note - yes there were games where we were unlucky too! But the above suggests to me that we have been lucky in 13/30 games this season.

But heart, guts, effort, team spirit, tactics, referees etc etc...

The other interpretation is that the stats just don’t work. The logical conclusion is not that we were ‘lucky’ because none of that list has anything that indicates luck, just that the stats were wrong !

[Hound]

yep was directly behind the Barrow shot, and he took his time, lined it up and hit it sweetly into the corner. Not sure where luck comes into it. Just because only 0.3% of shots from 30 yards or whatever go in, doesn't mean that Barrow had a gamble and got very lucky

[Vision]

And the Rotherham goal.?

Baker nut-megging an opposition player whilst facing our own goal, then Martinez passing from directly under his own goal line with an opposition player breathing down his neck, 3 passes later it's in the back of the opponents net.

The probability of that happening would be practically zero but is it "lucky" to score one of the best team goals we've seen in some time or an indication of what the players are capable of?

I take the point that scoring goals with truly outstanding pieces of skill isn't likely to happen every week but we've score 6 goals in our last 3 games and they've all been completely different in their construction and execution. Is that really luck?

[John Smith]

Out of interest do people still refuse to believe that we are extremely lucky?

How have we been lucky at all in the past 2 seasons?

Off the pitch, certainly in terms of our injury record, we have been 'fairly' to 'very' unlucky imo.

On the pitch? Incredibly lucky indeed. All figures are based on the win or lose percentage of games given the difference between the team's xG scores from 538's database of 9000+ games with xG scores. Worked example - a game with xGs of 1.3 vs 1.8 had an xG difference of -0.5. Games with an xG difference of -0.5 (600 games from the database) resulted in a win on 23% of occasions and a loss on 47%. While it's imperfect its demonstratively more powerful for predicting future results than actual goals, shots, shots on target, possession etc.

2017/18
14th Oct 2017 - Leeds (A) 1-0 win with 16% probability of a win based purely on headline xG vs 62% probability of a loss.
28th Nov 2017 - Barnsley (H) 3-0 win with 33% probability vs 33.4% against (a very even game xG wise).
20th Feb 2018 - Forest (A) 1-1 draw despite 53% probability of a loss.
6th March 2018 - Bolton (H) 1-1 draw despite 68% probability of a loss.
30th March 2018 - QPR (H) 1-0 win with 7% probability of a win vs 78% probability of a loss.
7th April 2018 - Preston (H) 1-0 win with 30% probability of a win vs 38% probability of a loss.
6th May 2018 - Cardiff (A) 0-0 draw despite 60% probability of a loss.

2018/19
22nd Aug 2018 - Blackburn (A) 2-2 draw despite 71% probability of a loss.
15th Sept 2018 - Preston (A) 3-2 win with 13% probability of a win vs 67% probability of a loss.
29th Sept 2018 - Brentford (A) 2-2 draw despite 68% probability of a loss.
20th Oct 2018 - Millwall (H) 3-1 win with 23% probability of a win vs 47% probability of a loss.
3rd Nov 2018 - Bristol C (H) 3-2 win with 3% probability of a win vs 87% probability of a loss (oof)
24th Nov 2018 - WIgan (A) 0-0 draw despite 75% probability of a loss.
1st Dec 2018 - Stoke (H) 1-1 draw despite 57% probability of a loss.
- (then we didn't get lucky for a while and Clement got sacked) -
2nd Feb 2019 - Villa (H) 0-0 draw despite 53% probability of a loss
9th Feb 2019 - Weds (A) 0-0 draw despite 57% probability of a loss
13th Feb 2019 - Blackburn (H) 2-1 win with 23% probability of a win vs 48% probability of a loss.
24th Feb 2019 - Rotherham (H) 1-1 draw despite 53% probability of a loss
2nd March 2019 - Ipswich (A) 2-1 win despite 18% probability of a win vs 53% probability of a loss.
2nd March 2019 - Wigan (H) 2-1 win despite 9% probability of a win vs 76% probability of a loss.

Note - yes there were games where we were unlucky too! But the above suggests to me that we have been lucky in 13/30 games this season.

But heart, guts, effort, team spirit, tactics, referees etc etc...

xG is a load of shít mate

[Old Man Andrews]

How have we been lucky at all in the past 2 seasons?

Off the pitch, certainly in terms of our injury record, we have been 'fairly' to 'very' unlucky imo.

On the pitch? Incredibly lucky indeed. All figures are based on the win or lose percentage of games given the difference between the team's xG scores from 538's database of 9000+ games with xG scores. Worked example - a game with xGs of 1.3 vs 1.8 had an xG difference of -0.5. Games with an xG difference of -0.5 (600 games from the database) resulted in a win on 23% of occasions and a loss on 47%. While it's imperfect its demonstratively more powerful for predicting future results than actual goals, shots, shots on target, possession etc.

2017/18
14th Oct 2017 - Leeds (A) 1-0 win with 16% probability of a win based purely on headline xG vs 62% probability of a loss.
28th Nov 2017 - Barnsley (H) 3-0 win with 33% probability vs 33.4% against (a very even game xG wise).
20th Feb 2018 - Forest (A) 1-1 draw despite 53% probability of a loss.
6th March 2018 - Bolton (H) 1-1 draw despite 68% probability of a loss.
30th March 2018 - QPR (H) 1-0 win with 7% probability of a win vs 78% probability of a loss.
7th April 2018 - Preston (H) 1-0 win with 30% probability of a win vs 38% probability of a loss.
6th May 2018 - Cardiff (A) 0-0 draw despite 60% probability of a loss.

2018/19
22nd Aug 2018 - Blackburn (A) 2-2 draw despite 71% probability of a loss.
15th Sept 2018 - Preston (A) 3-2 win with 13% probability of a win vs 67% probability of a loss.
29th Sept 2018 - Brentford (A) 2-2 draw despite 68% probability of a loss.
20th Oct 2018 - Millwall (H) 3-1 win with 23% probability of a win vs 47% probability of a loss.
3rd Nov 2018 - Bristol C (H) 3-2 win with 3% probability of a win vs 87% probability of a loss (oof)
24th Nov 2018 - WIgan (A) 0-0 draw despite 75% probability of a loss.
1st Dec 2018 - Stoke (H) 1-1 draw despite 57% probability of a loss.
- (then we didn't get lucky for a while and Clement got sacked) -
2nd Feb 2019 - Villa (H) 0-0 draw despite 53% probability of a loss
9th Feb 2019 - Weds (A) 0-0 draw despite 57% probability of a loss
13th Feb 2019 - Blackburn (H) 2-1 win with 23% probability of a win vs 48% probability of a loss.
24th Feb 2019 - Rotherham (H) 1-1 draw despite 53% probability of a loss
2nd March 2019 - Ipswich (A) 2-1 win despite 18% probability of a win vs 53% probability of a loss.
2nd March 2019 - Wigan (H) 2-1 win despite 9% probability of a win vs 76% probability of a loss.

Note - yes there were games where we were unlucky too! But the above suggests to me that we have been lucky in 13/30 games this season.

But heart, guts, effort, team spirit, tactics, referees etc etc...

xG is a load of shít mate

Yep completely pointless waste of time and effort.

[Hound]

certainly when I see this:

24th Feb 2019 - Rotherham (H) 1-1 draw despite 53% probability of a loss

I do wonder how on earth they get their stats together. Rotherham had 2 shots on goal in the game, including their goal and about 1 other chance, or even 'situation'. Where as we had about 5 good chances in the last 5 minutes alone

[Readingfanman]

certainly when I see this:

24th Feb 2019 - Rotherham (H) 1-1 draw despite 53% probability of a loss

I do wonder how on earth they get their stats together. Rotherham had 2 shots on goal in the game, including their goal and about 1 other chance, or even 'situation'. Where as we had about 5 good chances in the last 5 minutes alone

Rotherham did have 13 shots though in total - but we blocked 7 of them.

[Coppells Lost Coat]

I think any goal where a player has executed his decision excellently is not luck. He decided to shoot and pulled it off perfectly, if he hadn't it wouldn't have gone in. It would have been lucky if say, it had brushed off a defenders toe deflecting the ball enough to take out of the keepers reach but it was a clean, directed hit into the corner and Barrow deserves the praise and for the goal not to be belittled by calling it lucky.

By that standard any "wonder" goal is lucky rather than being an excellent piece of play.

A lucky goal would have been it the defender tackled him and it pinged off his knee into the top corner.
Barrow meant to shoot, meant for it to go bottom right as his body shape suggested - a pro at this level should be able to hit it into bottom corner more often than not. Shots from that distance are not lucky goals but more unlikely to go in at this level due to the keeper being of a decent standard. He took the chance and paid off.

[Stranded]

certainly when I see this:

24th Feb 2019 - Rotherham (H) 1-1 draw despite 53% probability of a loss

I do wonder how on earth they get their stats together. Rotherham had 2 shots on goal in the game, including their goal and about 1 other chance, or even 'situation'. Where as we had about 5 good chances in the last 5 minutes alone

Rotherham did have 13 shots though in total - but we blocked 7 of them.

The XG in that match was Reading 1.4 V Rotherham 1.5 - that surely pinpoints that the draw was a fair result.

[Stranded]

I think any goal where a player has executed his decision excellently is not luck. He decided to shoot and pulled it off perfectly, if he hadn't it wouldn't have gone in. It would have been lucky if say, it had brushed off a defenders toe deflecting the ball enough to take out of the keepers reach but it was a clean, directed hit into the corner and Barrow deserves the praise and for the goal not to be belittled by calling it lucky.

By that standard any "wonder" goal is lucky rather than being an excellent piece of play.

A lucky goal would have been it the defender tackled him and it pinged off his knee into the top corner.
Barrow meant to shoot, meant for it to go bottom right as his body shape suggested - a pro at this level should be able to hit it into bottom corner more often than not. Shots from that distance are not lucky goals but more unlikely to go in at this level due to the keeper being of a decent standard. He took the chance and paid off.

Any deflection would involve luck as it is no longer the planned outcome. Barrow planned what he did, do it is not luck. We're essentially agreeing though.

[Hound]

certainly when I see this:

24th Feb 2019 - Rotherham (H) 1-1 draw despite 53% probability of a loss

I do wonder how on earth they get their stats together. Rotherham had 2 shots on goal in the game, including their goal and about 1 other chance, or even 'situation'. Where as we had about 5 good chances in the last 5 minutes alone

Rotherham did have 13 shots though in total - but we blocked 7 of them.

The XG in that match was Reading 1.4 V Rotherham 1.5 - that surely pinpoints that the draw was a fair result.

So how does that translate to 53% probability of a loss?

[Stranded]

Rotherham did have 13 shots though in total - but we blocked 7 of them.

The XG in that match was Reading 1.4 V Rotherham 1.5 - that surely pinpoints that the draw was a fair result.

So how does that translate to 53% probability of a loss?

Dunno LOL