LOLiverpooLOL - Next Season

[Silver Fox]

Biggest slice of luck in the title race, IMO, was Kompany not getting sent off when hacking down Salah when pretty much clean through.

That could've meant a 6 point swing.

Indeed, he could have got sent off last Monday too, instead of wanging an absolute PING in

[URZZZZ]

What about City’s backpass yesterday? What about their penalty against West Ham which wasn’t a foul where they won 1-0? What about Pickford making all those saves at Goodison? What about... Some of these excuses are laughable. City came 1st, Liverpool came 2nd. None of it was down to luck. Simple as that

[Hoop Blah]

Poor old sandman, he must have had a terrible time this season

It's not luck when otherwise decent keepers drop clangers, it's a result of being put under massive amounts of pressure. Was it Jack Nicklaus that said "the more I practice the luckier I get"?

Gary Player, although I'm not sure it was his quote in the first place.

[sandman]

Poor old sandman, he must have had a terrible time this season

It's not luck when otherwise decent keepers drop clangers, it's a result of being put under massive amounts of pressure. Was it Jack Nicklaus that said "the more I practice the luckier I get"?

Pickford in particular was never under any pressure come on that ball was sailing over with no one around him.

Liverpool had a lot of luck. I've not denigrated them at all, I said they earned their points, so why the personal attacks? They've proven themselves to be a good team.

I hope you win the CL if only to stop you going on and on about Ramos.

I'm just stating, as one of your former managers may say, "facts".

[BR0B0T]

You could say the entire season hinged on two shots that hit the post differently the game between City and Liverpool at the etihad, City's hit the post and went in, Liverpool's hit the post and came out (also somehow missing the incoming Salah) Neither team were lucky to finish where they did, but those 2 bounces certainly favoured City.

I'm sure people will come up with examples where Liverpool got the luck but it's not really a debate worth having so don't bother. There were 2 excellent teams and one of them got a point more and thus deserved the title.

Certain teams do get more 'luck', defo felt that sometimes when United were battling Arsenal in the 90's

Got any irrefutable stats to back that up, otherwise speculation.

yep basic binomial distribution...lucky or unlucky

Big shout out to Jacob on that btw!

[URZZZZ]

Poor old sandman, he must have had a terrible time this season

It's not luck when otherwise decent keepers drop clangers, it's a result of being put under massive amounts of pressure. Was it Jack Nicklaus that said "the more I practice the luckier I get"?

Pickford in particular was never under any pressure come on that ball was sailing over with no one around him.

Liverpool had a lot of luck. I've not denigrated them at all, I said they earned their points, so why the personal attacks? They've proven themselves to be a good team.

I hope you win the CL if only to stop you going on and on about Ramos.

I'm just stating, as one of your former managers may say, "facts".

But so did City! The so called "best goalie" in the world horribly at fault for both goals against City when they won 2-0. Kelechi Iheanacho missing a chance that I'd score in the 87th minute a couple of games ago to equalise

Why bother bringing up luck when both teams had their fair share

[Hoop Blah]

yep basic binomial distribution...lucky or unlucky

Big shout out to Jacob on that btw!

Go on then....

[BR0B0T]

yep basic binomial distribution...lucky or unlucky

Big shout out to Jacob on that btw!

Go on then....

bonjour!

[Hoop Blah]

bonjour!

You'll have to explain how that irrefutably supports the idea that one team is luckier than another I'm afraid, it means nothing to me!

[Sanguine]

Poor old sandman, he must have had a terrible time this season

It's not luck when otherwise decent keepers drop clangers, it's a result of being put under massive amounts of pressure. Was it Jack Nicklaus that said "the more I practice the luckier I get"?

Pickford in particular was never under any pressure come on that ball was sailing over with no one around him.

Liverpool had a lot of luck. I've not denigrated them at all, I said they earned their points, so why the personal attacks? They've proven themselves to be a good team.

I hope you win the CL if only to stop you going on and on about Ramos.

I'm just stating, as one of your former managers may say, "facts".

As already highlighted, you can offset Pickford's error at Anfield with the fact that of the numerous top-drawer saves he made at Goodison against Liverpool in the 0-0 draw, on any other day, one or two might have gone in. Or again as above, Ineacho (had to be him of course) kicking it sideways instead of towards the goal last week. It's not 'fact' to say Liverpool have been, on balance, lucky, it's cherry-picking.

[stealthpapes]

Squires on ...

[Ascotexgunner]

If we are going on luck and incidents, Mahrez last minute miss v Liverpool could have probably made it more comfortable.

[stealthpapes]

yep basic binomial distribution...lucky or unlucky

Big shout out to Jacob on that btw!

Go on then....

bonjour!

not that I find a certain satisfaction in thinking this type of thing through, but to model it, I'd assume

* a power law relationship between severity of injury and likelihood of happening - small knocks happen often, serious injuries are rare.
[this could be tested and generated quite easily, I think, the data is surely out there].

*some amount of thresholding - injuries below a certain level are tapered to have less effect i.e. a knock on the leg that can be run off and does not require a substitution.

So 'luckiness' wrt injury can then be identified in two places - how effective the club is in preparation and medical staff by the behaviour at one end of the power-law curve - the better fitness, S&C staff and medical team will lead to a lower effect of the high probability incidents, while 'unluckiness' would be seen in the number of low-probability, high impact injury events.

[Hoop Blah]

Look at the stats, it was easy as it comes. Just because they didn't take their chances it doesn't mean they weren't extremely comfortable. Maybe try a new sport, football isn't for you.

Having watched most of the game and seen their goal that only just crossed the line, I'd say it was anything but an easy as it comes win. They could easily have drawn that game whereas against United it was a more comfortable win.

In a season of fine margins, it's interesting to note that City might win the league thanks to two goal line decisions that went their way (correctly) thanks to the technology which, in previous season, might not have gone their way.

Liverpool had that chance that fell just 11mm short of crossing the line in the game at Ethiad, and yesterday City's goal stood thanks to the technology knowing it had crossed the line by 29mm before being cleared. I don't think City's goal would've been given by a lino (before the technology) because of the way it was cleared and the ball being a couple of feet in the air making it even harder to see if it had cleared the line or not.

[John Smith]

Go on then....

bonjour!

not that I find a certain satisfaction in thinking this type of thing through, but to model it, I'd assume

* a power law relationship between severity of injury and likelihood of happening - small knocks happen often, serious injuries are rare.
[this could be tested and generated quite easily, I think, the data is surely out there].

*some amount of thresholding - injuries below a certain level are tapered to have less effect i.e. a knock on the leg that can be run off and does not require a substitution.

So 'luckiness' wrt injury can then be identified in two places - how effective the club is in preparation and medical staff by the behaviour at one end of the power-law curve - the better fitness, S&C staff and medical team will lead to a lower effect of the high probability incidents, while 'unluckiness' would be seen in the number of low-probability, high impact injury events.

Please calm down, we are talking about football here not the origin of life.

[stealthpapes]

yeah.

[Whore Jackie]

Fairly interesting* article in the NY Times about Liverpool's use of data and analytics.

[Winston Biscuit]

Maybe I am being harsh, but I am going to go out on a limb here and say Liverpool's new 16 year old signing Harvey Elliott is more than a bit of a twat

[Sanguine]

Not entirely surprised, for reasons I can't quite put my finger on.

[Winston Biscuit]