February perspective

[andrew1957]

There has been a bit of doom and gloom on here recently but putting things into perspective the end of Dec and January has been quite a good period for us.

We really have had an unprecedentedly tough run of games and 5 of the 7 were away too (opponents current league position in brackets):
Preston (7th) A
Fulham (3rd) A
Forest (4th) H
Millwall (9th) A
Forest (4th) A
Bristol (6th) H
Cardiff (12th) A

If on December 28th I had been offered results of 2-3-2 from that lot I would have taken it. How well we have done is somewhat masked by the fact that the two wins came at the start of the sequence but three draws and just two narrow defeats against such tough opposition in the last 5 is hardly catastrophic.

Whereas in the last period we have played 7 league games against bang in form teams, in February we are playing teams that are in varying degrees out of form and 4 of our 6 games are at home. And so February will be the month that makes or breaks our season.

If the players can keep their heads up then 4 wins from the next 6 is a very possible outcome and we could yet be in the last 16 of the FA Cup too. Come on URZZZZZZZZZZ

[Snowflake Royal]

Good positive post.

[URZZZZ]

I think first and foremost, our luck has ran out

Derby losing their heads, Rafael’s late save against QPR, Fulham hitting the woodwork a few times and missing a couple of sitters, our deflected goal against Fulham etc

Compared to since then, both of Forest’s goals were lucky against us, Millwall player punching it right in front of the referee, we seem to have missed a few sitters ourselves, the goalmouth scramble against Bristol that didn’t go in, the ball dropping perfectly for Paterson on Friday etc

I wouldn’t go as far as saying “we only went on a winning streak because we were lucky” or “we’re only on a winless streak because we’re unlucky” but it’s certainly played quite a big part IMO

[WestYorksRoyal]

I think we all got a bit carried away. Great results against Preston and Fulham, but we were never realistically anything more than a mid table side. Next few weeks tough too, but after Leeds we have a dream run in.

[Nevpay]

The team is definitely in a transitional period but we look stronger at the moment and far more difficult to beat than before Bowen started. I really think we'll pick up enough results to be safe by March and can then start building momentum towards next season.
It'll be interesting to see how the new signings fit in (if at all) between now and the end of the season and hopefully we can keep building towards next season

[Ark Royal]

The Championship is nuts. Just looked at the league table and no team is unbeaten over the last five games, but conversely every team in the division has won at least one of those five games - except Reading.

[Hound]

Yeah I’m still pretty positive

Agree the luck has turned a little. And a couple of our key players have dropped off a little - and the injury to Joao

But there is a basis of a solid side and a good attitude about the place

A strong end to the Season and a top half finish and I think we’ll be good shape for a dart at the POs next year, and hopefully not a constant FFP concern hanging over us as well

[Green]

The Championship is nuts. Just looked at the league table and no team is unbeaten over the last five games, but conversely every team in the division has won at least one of those five games - except Reading.

[Forbury Lion]

I think we all got a bit carried away. Great results against Preston and Fulham, but we were never realistically anything more than a mid table side. Next few weeks tough too, but after Leeds we have a dream run in.

mid table is a clear improvement over where we were last season. If the manager can build on that then playoffs next season will be achievable, especially if the teams coming down from the Prem are weaker than the ones that go up.

[andrew1957]

I know that I am putting on my RTG's but it really does seem to me that our next 6 league games are all winnable. None of Hull, WBA, Leeds or Sheff Wed are on particularly good form and then we have two of the bottom sides.

Our defence has been strong recently and so it is all about how we perform going forwards and whether we can find someone to score some goals.

It is a long time since we won 6 in a row!

[linkenholtroyal]

Hull will be a massive indicator of where we are. Cardiff were a strong challenge who should be further up the table, Milwall are on form and Forest are in and out of the play off spots. Hull on the other hand are on bad form, have just sold hands down there best 2 players and may well be the team that free falls into the relegation spots. If we don’t win tomorrow we really should be worried.

[Snowflake Royal]

I don't think there's much to worry about for a few more games yet regardless.

[leon]

I think first and foremost, our luck has ran out

Derby losing their heads, Rafael’s late save against QPR, Fulham hitting the woodwork a few times and missing a couple of sitters, our deflected goal against Fulham etc

Compared to since then, both of Forest’s goals were lucky against us, Millwall player punching it right in front of the referee, we seem to have missed a few sitters ourselves, the goalmouth scramble against Bristol that didn’t go in, the ball dropping perfectly for Paterson on Friday etc

I wouldn’t go as far as saying “we only went on a winning streak because we were lucky” or “we’re only on a winless streak because we’re unlucky” but it’s certainly played quite a big part IMO

bollocks

[URZZZZ]

I think first and foremost, our luck has ran out

Derby losing their heads, Rafael’s late save against QPR, Fulham hitting the woodwork a few times and missing a couple of sitters, our deflected goal against Fulham etc

Compared to since then, both of Forest’s goals were lucky against us, Millwall player punching it right in front of the referee, we seem to have missed a few sitters ourselves, the goalmouth scramble against Bristol that didn’t go in, the ball dropping perfectly for Paterson on Friday etc

I wouldn’t go as far as saying “we only went on a winning streak because we were lucky” or “we’re only on a winless streak because we’re unlucky” but it’s certainly played quite a big part IMO

bollocks

But you've got to admit our luck has decreased in recent weeks

Look how many times our woodwork was hit in that 4 game win streak for example. Then compare since

We got away with so many goalmouth scrambles, shots off the line etc. The reverse is happening now, e.g. our goalmouth scramble against Bristol which would have gone in a month ago

[leon]

I think first and foremost, our luck has ran out

Derby losing their heads, Rafael’s late save against QPR, Fulham hitting the woodwork a few times and missing a couple of sitters, our deflected goal against Fulham etc

Compared to since then, both of Forest’s goals were lucky against us, Millwall player punching it right in front of the referee, we seem to have missed a few sitters ourselves, the goalmouth scramble against Bristol that didn’t go in, the ball dropping perfectly for Paterson on Friday etc

I wouldn’t go as far as saying “we only went on a winning streak because we were lucky” or “we’re only on a winless streak because we’re unlucky” but it’s certainly played quite a big part IMO

bollocks

But you've got to admit our luck has decreased in recent weeks

Look how many times our woodwork was hit in that 4 game win streak for example. Then compare since

We got away with so many goalmouth scrambles, shots off the line etc. The reverse is happening now, e.g. our goalmouth scramble against Bristol which would have gone in a month ago

So it balances out?

We beat Fulham fair and square actually should have been 2 or3 up. We smashed them.

We had a shot cleared off the line against Cardiff etc etc

Luck is nonsense, hard work and organisation wins games.

[URZZZZ]

bollocks

But you've got to admit our luck has decreased in recent weeks

Look how many times our woodwork was hit in that 4 game win streak for example. Then compare since

We got away with so many goalmouth scrambles, shots off the line etc. The reverse is happening now, e.g. our goalmouth scramble against Bristol which would have gone in a month ago

So it balances out?

We beat Fulham fair and square actually should have been 2 or3 up. We smashed them.

We had a shot cleared off the line against Cardiff etc etc

Luck is nonsense, hard work and organisation wins games.

9 times out of 10 Fulham score that chance when Rafael made that triple save. They go 1 up and it's a completely different game

I agree that primarily hard work and organisation/tactics wins you games and explains a position over a season. Luck doesn't explain an entire season's worth as some try and incorrectly claim we did with Stam

But it does explain part way individual games and on the whole, certainly against QPR and Fulham, we had luck on our side to some degree. Not discrediting the performance at Fulham as it was superb, but it doesn't mean to say we didn't have an element of luck involved. Whereas recently, less so. I mean there were three different reasons why Forest' goal shouldn't have counted against us. So I wouldn't necessarily say luck is complete nonsense. Each to their own though

[Franchise FC]

bollocks

But you've got to admit our luck has decreased in recent weeks

Look how many times our woodwork was hit in that 4 game win streak for example. Then compare since

We got away with so many goalmouth scrambles, shots off the line etc. The reverse is happening now, e.g. our goalmouth scramble against Bristol which would have gone in a month ago

So it balances out?

We beat Fulham fair and square actually should have been 2 or3 up. We smashed them.

We had a shot cleared off the line against Cardiff etc etc

Luck is nonsense, hard work and organisation wins games.

Apparently it's the Samuel Goldwyn syndrome :
The harder I work the luckier I get

[Dr_Hfuhruhurr]

The Championship is nuts. Just looked at the league table and no team is unbeaten over the last five games, but conversely every team in the division has won at least one of those five games - except Reading.

I think the league is completely mediocre this year.

WRT OP, i think you have to look at our progress as baby steps. Weve got a large mediocre squad - you cant change that overnight. We dont seem as bad as previous seasons so thats a plus point - also means we are pointing in the right direction. But, yes, it does feel like the season is over. I just hope we keep playing and pick up the games we should win. I dont really see luck as a huge factor if Im honest. The manager has stabilised the squad but its still the same players - thats our overall problem

[Stranded]

The Championship is nuts. Just looked at the league table and no team is unbeaten over the last five games, but conversely every team in the division has won at least one of those five games - except Reading.

I think the league is completely mediocre this year.

WRT OP, i think you have to look at our progress as baby steps. Weve got a large mediocre squad - you cant change that overnight. We dont seem as bad as previous seasons so thats a plus point - also means we are pointing in the right direction. But, yes, it does feel like the season is over. I just hope we keep playing and pick up the games we should win. I dont really see luck as a huge factor if Im honest. The manager has stabilised the squad but its still the same players - thats our overall problem

This pretty much - looking at our run-in there are probably about 6 games we "should "win, 4 or 5 we "should" lose and the rest where a draw is the most likely result. If we go W6 D4 L5 over the last 15 or even W4 D5 L6 and finish in the high 50s/low 60s for points it gives us something to build on for next year.

We are picking up points at 1.55PPG under Bowen's leadership - W8 D7 L6 (71 point season), so if we maintain that over the next 15 games we are not too far off being a team that could challenge for the play-offs next year.

[paultheroyal]

Where we are now to what we were facing in late October is nothing short of a revelation. 7 more points should guarantee us safety - never thought I be saying that a few months back.