February perspective

[sandman]

But you've got to admit our luck has decreased in recent weeks

Look how many times our woodwork was hit in that 4 game win streak for example. Then compare since

We got away with so many goalmouth scrambles, shots off the line etc. The reverse is happening now, e.g. our goalmouth scramble against Bristol which would have gone in a month ago

So it balances out?

We beat Fulham fair and square actually should have been 2 or3 up. We smashed them.

We had a shot cleared off the line against Cardiff etc etc

Luck is nonsense, hard work and organisation wins games.

9 times out of 10 Fulham score that chance when Rafael made that triple save. They go 1 up and it's a completely different game

I agree that primarily hard work and organisation/tactics wins you games and explains a position over a season. Luck doesn't explain an entire season's worth as some try and incorrectly claim we did with Stam

But it does explain part way individual games and on the whole, certainly against QPR and Fulham, we had luck on our side to some degree. Not discrediting the performance at Fulham as it was superb, but it doesn't mean to say we didn't have an element of luck involved. Whereas recently, less so. I mean there were three different reasons why Forest' goal shouldn't have counted against us. So I wouldn't necessarily say luck is complete nonsense. Each to their own though

Luck plays a part in any league. Look at Liverpool, they've had more luck in the last 18 months than they've had since May 2005 when they had 5 good minutes and fluked a Champions League final.

9 times out of 10 Joao scores the third goal against Fulham when it drops to him with just the keeper to beat and he put it wide.

9 times out of 10 he doesn't get injured when chasing the ball down, goes through one on one again and scores the fourth goal.

We have the players, our problem is the consistency that creates the luck.

[windermereROYAL]

Where we are now to what we were facing in late October is nothing short of a revelation. 7 more points should guarantee us safety - never thought I be saying that a few months back.

7 points could be pushing it a bit, but we will get something like 54 points, that should be enough.

[Stranded]

Where we are now to what we were facing in late October is nothing short of a revelation. 7 more points should guarantee us safety - never thought I be saying that a few months back.

Quite - for those worrying about being pulled back into the relegation fight - after we beat Fulham we went 12 points clear of the drop. Despite not winning in the 6 league games since - the gap has only narrowed by 2 points.

[Hound]

Where we are now to what we were facing in late October is nothing short of a revelation. 7 more points should guarantee us safety - never thought I be saying that a few months back.

Quite - for those worrying about being pulled back into the relegation fight - after we beat Fulham we went 12 points clear of the drop. Despite not winning in the 6 league games since - the gap has only narrowed by 2 points.

We're not playing terribly by any means. Plenty of shots on goal, competing well. Theres nothing to suggest we're suddenly going to lose 5 or 6 in a row.

Its small minor details as much as anything. Hull was certainly disappointing but we're more than capable of picking up points in the next few games - and then life does (on paper) get quite a lot more a bit easier fixture wise. Potentially have Joao back in a month which will help as well, Yiadom should be back this week.

[WestYorksRoyal]

The thing is, what we want this season is steady progress. If we win very few games between now and limp to 50-54 points or so, is it really a big improvement on recent years? It would be a big damp squid from Jan - May, and wouldn't feel like great "progress". Points totals around that mark are those of a team who have avoided relegation and nothing more.

We should be aiming for 60-65 points, which would mean around 1.5 ppg between now and the end of the season; perfectly feasible given our run in after we go to Leeds. Ideally, best players in form and clear spine in squad to build upon next year.

I just don't see how limping on with current form is what we need, even if we stay up. I know we've had tough fixtures, but our last 2 home games in the league have been poor. Don't want the initial energy and positivity of Bowen's reign to drain.

[Stranded]

Where we are now to what we were facing in late October is nothing short of a revelation. 7 more points should guarantee us safety - never thought I be saying that a few months back.

7 points could be pushing it a bit, but we will get something like 54 points, that should be enough.

In 4 of the past 5 seasons 42 or 43 points have been enough to stay up - one outlier being the season Blackburn dropped on 51.

The number of points needed to stay in this division is dropping - argument could be made that 2 wins will be enough.

[Snowflake Royal]

The Championship is nuts. Just looked at the league table and no team is unbeaten over the last five games, but conversely every team in the division has won at least one of those five games - except Reading.

I think the league is completely mediocre this year.

WRT OP, i think you have to look at our progress as baby steps. Weve got a large mediocre squad - you cant change that overnight. We dont seem as bad as previous seasons so thats a plus point - also means we are pointing in the right direction. But, yes, it does feel like the season is over. I just hope we keep playing and pick up the games we should win. I dont really see luck as a huge factor if Im honest. The manager has stabilised the squad but its still the same players - thats our overall problem

This pretty much - looking at our run-in there are probably about 6 games we "should "win, 4 or 5 we "should" lose and the rest where a draw is the most likely result. If we go W6 D4 L5 over the last 15 or even W4 D5 L6 and finish in the high 50s/low 60s for points it gives us something to build on for next year.

We are picking up points at 1.55PPG under Bowen's leadership - W8 D7 L6 (71 point season), so if we maintain that over the next 15 games we are not too far off being a team that could challenge for the play-offs next year.

Absolutely.

We need to make sure we don't tail off with 'nothing to play for' though as we could still easily finish 17th / 18th / 19th which basically puts us right back where we've been for ages, just with less panic.

15th has to be the absolute minimum goal and we need to start picking up some wins again to achieve it.

[paultheroyal]

Where we are now to what we were facing in late October is nothing short of a revelation. 7 more points should guarantee us safety - never thought I be saying that a few months back.

7 points could be pushing it a bit, but we will get something like 54 points, that should be enough.

In 4 of the past 5 seasons 42 or 43 points have been enough to stay up - one outlier being the season Blackburn dropped on 51.

The number of points needed to stay in this division is dropping - argument could be made that 2 wins will be enough.

Windermere is suggesting that Luton and Barnsley need to double their points total and some in the last 15 remaining games and for Wigan to get 7 wins and 4 draws from there 15...... cant see it.

I thought you might of needed a record points total to stay up this season, cant see that now and 45 points will be enough.

[Snowflake Royal]

Windy is just using the traditional safety mark rather than looking at specific circumstances this season isn't he?

Hit 54 and it almost doesn't matter what the bottom teams do, you'll be safe 19 times out of 20 or something.

[URZZZZ]

Where we are now to what we were facing in late October is nothing short of a revelation. 7 more points should guarantee us safety - never thought I be saying that a few months back.

7 points could be pushing it a bit, but we will get something like 54 points, that should be enough.

In 4 of the past 5 seasons 42 or 43 points have been enough to stay up - one outlier being the season Blackburn dropped on 51.

The number of points needed to stay in this division is dropping - argument could be made that 2 wins will be enough.

At the current rate, could easily be Luton, Charlton and Barnsley dropping (i.e. the three teams that were promoted from L1 last season)

At the same stage last season, 22nd place had 27 points so the benchmark does seem to be slightly higher this season, however not by too much, and when you consider how poor Charlton have been since October, I think you're right with around 2 more wins

[windermereROYAL]

7 points could be pushing it a bit, but we will get something like 54 points, that should be enough.

In 4 of the past 5 seasons 42 or 43 points have been enough to stay up - one outlier being the season Blackburn dropped on 51.

The number of points needed to stay in this division is dropping - argument could be made that 2 wins will be enough.

Windermere is suggesting that Luton and Barnsley need to double their points total and some in the last 15 remaining games and for Wigan to get 7 wins and 4 draws from there 15...... cant see it.

I thought you might of needed a record points total to stay up this season, cant see that now and 45 points will be enough.

Wigan need 17 points from 15 games to get more than 45 points, a fraction over a point a game. they are slightly below that now. to be clear i don`t think we are in danger, but 45 points certainly isn`t a given.

[Tilehurstsouthbank]

It would be a big damp squid

Sorry for taking the piss but this is right up there with 'Escaped Goat'.

[WestYorksRoyal]

It would be a big damp squid

Sorry for taking the piss but this is right up there with 'Escaped Goat'.

Bloody autocracy

[Mid Sussex Royal]

7 points could be pushing it a bit, but we will get something like 54 points, that should be enough.

In 4 of the past 5 seasons 42 or 43 points have been enough to stay up - one outlier being the season Blackburn dropped on 51.

The number of points needed to stay in this division is dropping - argument could be made that 2 wins will be enough.

At the current rate, could easily be Luton, Charlton and Barnsley dropping (i.e. the three teams that were promoted from L1 last season)

At the same stage last season, 22nd place had 27 points so the benchmark does seem to be slightly higher this season, however not by too much, and when you consider how poor Charlton have been since October, I think you're right with around 2 more wins

We have a very gentle run in after the Leeds game (except Brentford) and if we can't get the 7 or 8 points probably needed we deserve to go down