Coronavirus outbreak

[Uke]

There was an interview a week with a woman in the States who had volunteered to be tested with a Vaccine and had had the injection....

The correct phrasing is a "woman in the States who had volunteered to be tested with a Vaccine and had had an injection"

It's to early to use "the"

Yes.

Btw My initial point was a vaccine HAS been produced. And it was made quite early on too, much quicker than expected. Of course it has to go through required tests. But it’s there. The context of my statement is that many feared it wouldn’t be so easily made, or would be delayed. It was on the contrary easy.

Until the fat lady sings, a virus HAS NOT been produced.

A woman has had an injection...

[Millsy]

The correct phrasing is a "woman in the States who had volunteered to be tested with a Vaccine and had had an injection"

It's to early to use "the"

Yes.

Btw My initial point was a vaccine HAS been produced. And it was made quite early on too, much quicker than expected. Of course it has to go through required tests. But it’s there. The context of my statement is that many feared it wouldn’t be so easily made, or would be delayed. It was on the contrary easy.

Until the fat lady sings, a virus HAS NOT been produced.

A woman has had an injection...

Let’s not get into conspiracy theories about the virus being produced.

And I’ve no interest in exploring your definitions of what constitutes production. Play that game on your own. Or go talk to the guys I studied with up the road on your own. Nothing to do with fat ladies in America. It’s not my job to educate sorry buddy. Believe what you will. Peace.

[Millsy]

Snowball, you are showing signs of anxiety and I have nothing but respect for you I hope you are well.

But chill. And step back from trying to analyse something out of your area of expertise. It will do you no good.

If you must, carrying on from my observations of German etc stats, what do you make of the stats from the Diamond Princess, quite possibly the most accurate stats we could have except for its unnaturally vulnerable population.

Keep safe but keep sane, fellow Redingensians.

[Uke]

Yes.

Btw My initial point was a vaccine HAS been produced. And it was made quite early on too, much quicker than expected. Of course it has to go through required tests. But it’s there. The context of my statement is that many feared it wouldn’t be so easily made, or would be delayed. It was on the contrary easy.

Until the fat lady sings, a virus HAS NOT been produced.

A woman has had an injection...

Let’s not get into conspiracy theories about the virus being produced.

And I’ve no interest in exploring your definitions of what constitutes production. Play that game on your own. Or go talk to the guys I studied with up the road on your own. Nothing to do with fat ladies in America. It’s not my job to educate sorry buddy. Believe what you will. Peace.

No conspiracy theory

I get your point, but trials are literally my (currently almost collapsing) industry.

I can’t get excited until the results are out as I’ve seen too many drugs fail.

These float my boat more - https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results? ... ype=&rslt=

Peace to you too.

[Millsy]

Until the fat lady sings, a virus HAS NOT been produced.

A woman has had an injection...

Let’s not get into conspiracy theories about the virus being produced.

And I’ve no interest in exploring your definitions of what constitutes production. Play that game on your own. Or go talk to the guys I studied with up the road on your own. Nothing to do with fat ladies in America. It’s not my job to educate sorry buddy. Believe what you will. Peace.

No conspiracy theory

I get your point, but trials are literally my (currently almost collapsing) industry.

I can’t get excited until the results are out as I’ve seen too many drugs fail.

These float my boat more - https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results? ... ype=&rslt=

Peace to you too.

Fair enough, fellow nerd I see your point too of course.

[Aeroguide]

Snowbollocks!....why are you so full of shite?

[krapmle]

only once we have factual answers to the following can we tell if this is serious or a load of bollocks:

1) how many get infected with flu?
2) how many of those infected die?
3) how many get infected with covoid?
4) how many die?

at the moment nobody knows how many get infected, only how many have tested positive or negative.

[windermereROYAL]

only once we have factual answers to the following can we tell if this is serious or a load of bollocks:

1) how many get infected with flu?
2) how many of those infected die?
3) how many get infected with covoid?
4) how many die?

at the moment nobody knows how many get infected, only how many have tested positive or negative.

Flu almost disappears in the summer normally, the spread may slow but I don`t reckon this is going anywhere too soon.

[Snowball]

"Only once we have factual answers to the following can we tell if this is serious or a load of bollocks:"

UK

1) How many get infected with (seasonal) flu?

2018/19 Winter Hospital Cases. (35 Weeks) =

The cumulative number of cases and deaths were slightly lower compared to the 2017 to 2018 season (3,245 cases (mean weekly incidence of 0.20 per 100,000) and 330 deaths) but higher than the 2016 to 2017 season (992 cases (mean weekly incidence of 0.06 per 100, 000) and 112 deaths) in England (Figure 17).

The case fatality rate (proportion of ICU/HDU influenza cases which have died due to influenza) was 9.3% (273/2,924) based on data from week 40 2018 to week 15 2019.

This compares with a case-fatality rate of 10.2% (330/3,245) in the previous 2017 to 2018 season.

2) How many of those infected die?

UK Only

0.1% (One tenth of a per cent)

If this is the population death rate and 330 die, that means 333,000 (333 Thousand) get seasonal flu)



3) How many get infected with covoid?

UK Only

Currently 5,018 CONFIRMED Cases (probably 6,000+ by the end of the day,

already almost double the 35-week count (3,245) for seasonal flu)

This is Week 40 2018 to Week 15 2019)


4) How many die?

Official Cases (Tested Positive)

9.10% Italy (percentage has been rising, don't know if it has stopped rising)
4.64% UK (percentage still rising)
4.30% World (percentage still rising)

These figures will rise (like Italy's did, because many already
sick will die, even if there wasn't another infection

It seems more than possible the death rate will pass 10% of confirmed cases.
Experts are saying that this virus is much more deadly than seasonal flu and
seasonal flu UK has a death rate for hospital cases around 10%.

If the confirmed cases are 1 in 10 of actual cases, that would mean 1% of the population, ten times seasonal flu

============================================


Gov.UK Annual Seasonal Flu Reports

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... lu-reports



GOV.UK Figures for Seasonal Flu THIS Winter

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-f ... 19-to-2020





Oxford University Report

Quote

Key Disease facts

Influenza (flu) is a very common, highly infectious disease caused by a virus. It can be very dangerous, causing serious complications and death, especially for people in risk groups. In rare cases flu can kill people who are otherwise healthy.

In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu.

(Snowball >> That is 1 in 100,000)

In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013 , which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09).

Flu leads to hundreds of thousands of GP visits and tens of thousands of hospital stays a year.

The flu virus is very variable and changes over time. Each year there are different strains around, and a new vaccine has to be prepared to deal with them. Vaccination from previous years is not likely to protect people against current strains of flu.

There are three basic types of flu: A, B and C. Type A is the most dangerous; it is the one that can cause serious disease and also triggers worldwide pandemics. Type C causes mild disease. Type B can make you feel very ill, but it has never led to a worldwide pandemic.
Flu epidemics can kill thousands or even millions of people. The 1918 flu epidemic is estimated to have affected half the world's population, and killed 40-50 million people worldwide. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that flu kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people around the world every year.

In the UK (and in the rest of the northern hemisphere) the annual flu season runs from about October to March or April. Most cases of flu occur between December and February.

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu

[Snowball]

Gov. UK >> The normal Winter Flu season finishes in February <<



It is highly probable that we will have hospitalisations and deaths
March, April, May and well into the summer

These are ON TOP OF Seasonal Flu deaths

[krapmle]

not sure they are facts because I don't see how you can know how many people have had flu?
We also don't know how many are actually infected with covoid.

but what is factual is the following:

number of global deaths from flu this winter (so far) = 108,640
number of deaths from covoid (so far) = 13,599

not a strong basis for the actions currently being taken. Plus we ignore the global flu death rate each and every year. WHO says between 250,000 and 600,000 die each year.

But its not my field of expertise and I just carry on doing whats recommended.

However, I don't currently see any figures that seem to justify shutting down the global economy.

[Snowball]

not sure they are facts because I don't see how you can know how many people have had flu?
We also don't know how many are actually infected with covoid.

but what is factual is the following:

number of global deaths from flu this winter (so far) = 108,640
number of deaths from covoid (so far) = 13,599

not a strong basis for the actions currently being taken. Plus we ignore the global flu death rate each and every year. WHO says between 250,000 and 600,000 die each year.

But its not my field of expertise and I just carry on doing whats recommended.

However, I don't currently see any figures that seem to justify shutting down the global economy.

Do you REALLY believe that a Right-Wing Tory Government, The US Ultra-Capitalist Government, The Germans, The French, The Spanish, The Italians etc etc etc would put their very economies at risk, kill airlines, kill the tourism Industry, shut every pub and club, and restaurant and cafe, stop public sport, finish leagues, postpone the Euros, spend absolute BILLIONS unless they were absolutely certain that this was a crisis of the worst. worst kind?

REALLY?

[Snowball]

not a strong basis for the actions currently being taken. Plus we ignore the global flu death rate each and every year. WHO says between 250,000 and 600,000 die each year.

"250,000 and 600,000 die each year"

That was the range of expected deaths IN THE UK ALONE if we did nothing!

If CV-19 settles at an overall 1% death rate, that is 660,000 UK Deaths

If you argue it's only 0.1% that would still be 66,000 deaths

For seasonal flu there is some immunity, there are vaccines etc.

ATM for CV-19 there is no direct defence except avoidance of contact etc

THAT is why governments are hitting this so hard (or trying to)

Consider how many dead there would be if the world was at the same point as Italy/San Marino. If we were at the same incidence and death rate as San Marino was yesterday we would ALREADY have had 40,000 CV19 deaths and be rapidly heading towards 100,000 with not sign of stopping.

Reading has more than seven times the population of San Marino.
It would be on about 150 Deaths pro-rata

[Royal Rother]

The daily update for deaths in U.K. has been updated from yesterday’s 56 to 10... rest of the stats (new cases etc.) not updated yet.

I find 10 hard to believe but there you go.

[PieEater]

I think that's because the counts are added up as Scottish and Welsh counts come separately before England.

[Royal Rother]

I think that's because the counts are added up as Scottish and Welsh counts come separately before England.

Ah, I see.

[Snowball]

I think that's because the counts are added up as Scottish and Welsh counts come separately before England.

The scary number is 93. That's how many are now recovered.

So 4,800 still fighting

[Snowball]

I think that's because the counts are added up as Scottish and Welsh counts come separately before England.

The Case-Count is the same as yesterday (5,018) so that looks
like the deaths have been amended

Absolutely ZERO chance there weren't many, many new cases
5,018 was Friday's figure (officially published as "0900 Saturday")

[Royal Rother]

I think that's because the counts are added up as Scottish and Welsh counts come separately before England.

The scary number is 93. That's how many are now recovered.

So 4,800 still fighting

But FWIW it says only 20 serious / critical cases.

Anyway, too early to review / comment as not all stats are in.

[krapmle]

China has a population of 1.4 billion yet suffered only 3,261 deaths so far.
Panic leads to irrational decision making.

between 250,000 and 600,000 have been dying of flu each year for many years and we do nothing.
Without understanding how many people have actually been infected (not just tested) we don't know how infectious or how deadly all this is.

I don't know how much of a threat this really is but the figures thrown around at the moment when compared to flu, DO NOT justify destroying the world economy. And it is also a proven fact, that if economies suffer, death rates in the population will rise.

So either governments are panic driven at the moment or they know more than they are telling.