Coronavirus outbreak

[krapmle]

I should add that we are betting on lockdowns etc slowing the exponential rise, then stopping the rise, then, eventually seeing a decline in daily cases. In the previous post I was trying to illustrate the evil of exponential growth when unchecked. Remember we are seeing this growth despite severe restrictions (which will take 14 days to show their effect).

Without restrictions we could have been revisiting 1918

you must be having wet dreams with these figures.
Please stop putting words in my mouth.

what do you not understand with "That is my point, not the economy, not do nothing about corona"

[Royals and Racers]

Latest UK figures
England - 414 deaths
Scotland - 22 deaths
Wales - 22 deaths
Northern Ireland - 7 deaths

[SCIAG]

I don’t really like your sensationalism Snowball (as I have said a few times) but underneath that, you’re bang on. CORRECTION: your second post mitigates this dramatically.

My only quibbles with your last line:

- There are, I believe, one or two occasional posters on here who were alive for the Battle of Britain, though not sure they were old enough to form memories.

- The AIDS crisis is probably the closest global comparison in our lifetimes. In the UK it has so far killed about 10,000 people, and thankfully that number might never go up. Covid 19 probably won’t match the 35 million global deaths we’ve seen from HIV (and unfortunately that number is still going up) but 10,000 in the UK seems possible.

[Snowball]

I should add that we are betting on lockdowns etc slowing the exponential rise, then stopping the rise, then, eventually seeing a decline in daily cases. In the previous post I was trying to illustrate the evil of exponential growth when unchecked. Remember we are seeing this growth despite severe restrictions (which will take 14 days to show their effect).

Without restrictions we could have been revisiting 1918

you must be having wet dreams with these figures.
Please stop putting words in my mouth.

what do you not understand with "That is my point, not the economy, not do nothing about corona"

I treat all your remarks with the respect they deserve

[Jagermesiter1871]

There are obviously some problematic areas but don't be fooled in to thinking we are immune.
Have you ever once in your life even checked the data?

This is just a bizarre logic. What are we even talking about now?

we are talking about you consistently spouting un- researched nonsense.
educate yourself.

the only reason most of you are even taking a stance is because you are shit scared of it hitting you directly.
once it disappears the other deaths I mentioned will continue and you will all ignore it because its far away out of sight.

That is my point, not the economy, not do nothing about corona but the fact that millions of others will continue to die needlessly once this is over and you all go back to your me, me, me lives.

Which bit is unresearched? Snowball is literally supplying the figures and sources and you're disregarding them so clearly research and evidence isn't what you're interested in.

You instead appear to have some weird stance that because people die of other things we shouldn't be concerned with an ongoing pandemic that is growing exponentially and is yet to hit the most at risk countries.

[Snowball]

I don’t really like your sensationalism Snowball (as I have said a few times) but underneath that, you’re bang on. CORRECTION: your second post mitigates this dramatically.

My only quibbles with your last line:

- There are, I believe, one or two occasional posters on here who were alive for the Battle of Britain, though not sure they were old enough to form memories.

- The AIDS crisis is probably the closest global comparison in our lifetimes. In the UK it has so far killed about 10,000 people, and thankfully that number might never go up. Covid 19 probably won’t match the 35 million global deaths we’ve seen from HIV (and unfortunately that number is still going up) but 10,000 in the UK seems possible.

There is no intent on my part to be sensationalist. I am posting the figures that will occur if the exponential rise continues. Nobody knows what the effects of various lockdown measures will have. IMO China's figures are Mickey Mouse.

I'd overlooked AIDS probably because it was a far more drawn-out pandemic. Second it was relatively easy to defend against once we knew what was going on. Protected sex, don't share needles, greater care handling bloods etc.

The point about flu pandemics is their speed if allowed to simply catch fire. Hence 1918.

I see you mention a UK Death figure of 10,000. The Govt's Chief Advisor has said that 20,000 would be a good result

[Forbury Lion]

I'm concerned that these proposed temporary 2,000 bed hospitals are just somewhere to store patients until they die due to a lack of ventilators, a kind of morgue in waiting - I'm hoping we don't have to find out

Dyson are apparently due to set work on 15,000 ventilators... or 10,000 depending on which website/paper you read, Airbus are making them too - probably 30,000 being made in total, again it depend what you read - other sources suggest the NHS current total of 8,175 will be increased to 30,000.

I also read about a load of academics at Oxford/that sort of thing who designed a new basic ventilator from scratch that can be made really quickly but the government isn't interested.

Other than that, I've mostly been ignoring any cornovirus news/updates

[Hound]

Snowball, how useful is the comparison with 1918 though? It does sensationalise it.

Different viruses, different mortality rates, particularly amongst the young. Different levels of health care and communication now.

[Snowball]

Snowball, how useful is the comparison with 1918 though? It does sensationalise it.

Different viruses, different mortality rates, particularly amongst the young. Different levels of health care and communication now.

It isn't "comparison". It's where we could easily get to (and x 3) if we did nothing.

The lowest estimate of "Spanish Flu" dead is 17 Million (1%), the highest 100 Million (6%). Confirmed Cases (2020) are approaching 10% (Italy is over 10%) and if there are ten times as many non-tested, that puts this (eventual) mortality rate at just under 1%, the figure that most experts are suggesting.

1918 had no vaccine. 2020 has no vaccine

The one difference between then and now is we have antibiotics to fight secondary pneumonias. the 1918 flu hit in three distinct waves and the first wave (in wartime) was massively played down as a minor inconvenience.

But many deaths are being caused by an over-reaction of the body's immune system: "Some analyses have shown the virus to be particularly deadly because it triggers a cytokine storm, which ravages the stronger immune system of young adult" (1918). The same cytokine storm is being reported in 2020.

[Hound]

you've just compared them there fella

[Snowball]

Snowball, how useful is the comparison with 1918 though? It does sensationalise it.

Different viruses, different mortality rates, particularly amongst the young. Different levels of health care and communication now.

Take a read of Wiki on The Spanish Flu. Read around and see how it was first under-played etc.*

And just think, less than two weeks ago Boris's PLAN was to infect at least 60% of UK Residents as quickly as possible to create herd immunity.


*I'm not relying on Wiki (first time Ive looked on 1918). I have, have read, am reading it again, "The Great Influenza" by John M Barry..
The second wave was much, much more deadly than the first, and here is a big difference between 1918 and 2020.

In 1918 mild cases in soldiers, the men stayed in the trenches, or just behind the lines, but serious cases were transported by the train-load to central hospitals, thus spreading a variant that was more aggressive.

According to the experts, when there are milder variants this milder variants win the evolutionary battle because the carriers (us) don't die off. Those with the worst, most deadly variants, stay put and often die. So the milder versions become more widespread and, though spreading more, infect many with the mild, rather than the deadly strain. Due to war conditions, the deadly strain was transmitted far more than expected.

[Snowball]

you've just compared them there fella

You can compare a pygmy do a two-metre tall Masai warrior.

Doesn't mean you're saying they are equivalent.

You seem to be inferring that by "comparing" I'm suggesting that is where we are headed. I'm not suggesting it's "where we are headed" I'm just making the point that UNCHECKED, a virus with this lethality could (COULD) be as lethal if (IF) we did nothing as Krapmle seems to be suggesting.

It already looks pretty certain to be second only to 1918. if it hits Africa-India, the toll could be of biblical proportions

Comparisons with SARS are beginning to look pointless. We are already 1 scale of magnitude worse off, and it is going to worsen.

Cases - - 8,089 - - - - SARS-1
Cases 486,702 - - - -SARS-2 Covid-19


Deaths - - 707 - - - - SARS-1
Deaths 22,020 - - - -SARS-2 Covid-19

Confirmed cases have already reached 60 times SARS-1. Deaths are already 31.5 times the total SARS-1 pandemic

[Hound]

you've just compared them there fella

You can compare a pygmy do a two-metre tall Masai warrior.

Doesn't mean you're saying they are equivalent.

well yeah and thats the point. I dont think its esp helpful to say 'In 1918 xxxx people died' because this isnt 1918 and it isnt the same flu.

Obviously that was horrendous but its completely different times.

[Hendo]

you've just compared them there fella

You can compare a pygmy do a two-metre tall Masai warrior.

Doesn't mean you're saying they are equivalent.

But technological advances do not impact on whether someone is short or all

It is the same way you can't really compare previous eras of sports, technology and attitudes advance.

Take football for an example, yes Pele and Maradona were amazing and two of the best players ever, but you take a look at some of the defending and goal-keeping and it just isn't up to the same standard it is today. That is down to technological advancements in training methods.

Ice Hockey is actually a better example, thinking about it. No one is going to get near Gretzky's points total because players are better now and the 'keepers have better protection which wasn't around when he was playing.

If the Spanish Flu or Black Plague had surfaced for the first time now, I am sure a lot of people would've died but a cure/vaccine would've been found a lot quicker because of the technological advances.

[Snowball]

If the Spanish Flu or Black Plague had surfaced for the first time now, I am sure a lot of people would've died but a cure/vaccine would've been found a lot quicker because of the technological advances.

Maybe, but not really.

The virus attacked in three waves and lasted about 34 months, beginning in January 1918, finishing very abruptly, November 1920. It currently takes 18 months to develop a safe vaccine. For many months (1918) it was" just another round of seasonal flu".

Wartime conditions, crowds of soldiers jammed together probably exacerbated the problem, but the first wave and the far more deadly second wave killed the very large majority of all those killed, within the time-scale of 18 months. So a vaccine was never going to happen, and presumably wouldn't happen now in a time-period where it could be useful. Of course a vaccine might have helped for the smaller third wave, or for a fourth wave, had it happened.

Covid-19, I suspect, though that political pressure might lead to greater cooperation and short-cuts in vaccine development, possibly reducing the standard 18-months development time.

[Emmer Green Royal]

[quote="Snowball"][quote="Hound"]you've just compared them there fella[/quote]

Comparisons with SARS are beginning to look pointless. We are already 1 scale of magnitude worse off, and it is going to worsen.

Cases - - 8,089 - - - - SARS-1
Cases 486,702 - - - -SARS-2 Covid-19

Deaths - - 707 - - - - SARS-1
Deaths 22,020 - - - -SARS-2 Covid-19

Confirmed cases have already reached 60 times SARS-1. Deaths are already 31.5 times the total SARS-1 pandemic[/quote]

If the number of deaths is the key metric, why are people so blase about flu? In 2018/19 there were 23,200 “excess winter deaths” in the UK (according to the UK Government) - mainly caused by flu. That's more than Covid-19 has caused worldwide.

[Hound]

yeah its a bit strange with the flu. I think people will take it more seriously now, and not just call any runny nose a 'bit of flu'

Basically if thats right, compared to the original govt figures, 10 standard years of flu = what we were expecting to lose with Covid-19 this year with the original strategy.

[Snowball]

you've just compared them there fella

Comparisons with SARS are beginning to look pointless. We are already 1 scale of magnitude worse off, and it is going to worsen.

Cases - - 8,089 - - - - SARS-1
Cases 486,702 - - - -SARS-2 Covid-19

Deaths - - 707 - - - - SARS-1
Deaths 22,020 - - - -SARS-2 Covid-19

Confirmed cases have already reached 60 times SARS-1. Deaths are already 31.5 times the total SARS-1 pandemic

If the number of deaths is the key metric, why are people so blase about flu? In 2018/19 there were 23,200 “excess winter deaths” in the UK (according to the UK Government) - mainly caused by flu. That's more than Covid-19 has caused worldwide.

I thought that at first but those 23,000 winter excess deaths are NOT all flu

Government Says: The majority of additional winter deaths are caused by cerebrovascular diseases, ischaemic heart disease, respiratory diseases, and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease.

[Snowball]

When did the severe lockdown start? Does anyone know when the curve is expected to peak?

Looking at the average daily increase for the last 10 days, Confirmed Cases are rising by 17.5% a day and Deaths by 12.92% per day.

To get the doubling period divide 70 by the number.

Cases doubling every 4 days, deaths every 5.4 days? Death rates might climb faster if the NHS fails to cope and has to start triaging

If we continue at these percentages just until March 30th, the cumulative figures will be 865,849 excluding China, 946,849 including China but excluding any rises. Deaths would go from 21,776 total yesterday to 24,607 today and 40,121 by the 30th. If we get lower numbers that should be a sign of the curve starting to flatten

First Column Excludes China, 3rd Column Deaths

386,592 - - - 467,592 - - - 21,776 - - - 25-Mar
454,246 - - - 535,246 - - - 24,607 - - - 26-Mar (1 Day)
533,739 - - - 614,739 - - - 27,806 - - - 27-Mar
627,143 - - - 708,143 - - - 31,421 - - - 28-Mar
736,893 - - - 817,893 - - - 35,505 - - - 29-Mar
865,849 - - - 946,849 - - - 40,121 - - - 30-Mar (5 Days)

IF the percentages continue to apply for a week and on to two weeks

1,017,373 - - - 1,098,373 - - - 45,337 - - - 31-Mar (06 Days)
1,195,413 - - - 1,276,413 - - - 51,230 - - - 01-Apr (07 Days)
1,404,610 - - - 1,485,610 - - - 57,890 - - - 02-Apr (08 Days)
1,650,417 - - - 1,731,417 - - - 65,416 - - - 03-Apr (09 Days)
1,939,240 - - - 2,020,240 - - - 73,920 - - - 04-Apr (10 Days)
2,278,607 - - - 2,359,607 - - - 83,530 - - - 05-Apr (11 Days)
2,677,363 - - - 2,758,363 - - - 94,389 - - - 06-Apr (12 Days)

3,145,902 - - - 3,226,902 - - - 106,659 - - - 07-Apr (13 Days)
3,696,434 - - - 3,777,434 - - - 120,525 - - - 08-Apr (14 Days)

[WestYorksRoyal]

The Spanish Flu comparison is flawed because of context and events. Agreed that in the given timescales, modern vaccine technology would not have made much difference.

But ultimately it was because of the war it was so deadly. Nations didn't want to damage morale for the war effort and so didn't report it. They censored reports of it. It's known as "Spanish Flu" not because it originated there, but because Spain were the only first country to acknowledge the disease and report it (they were neutral in the war). Add in trench warfare, which is a perfect environment for it to spread and also made soldiers more vulnerable, it was a perfect storm for a disaster. Most deaths were in young adults.

Most deaths were also in India under our exemplary stewardship.

In today's peacetime scenario, there's no knowing what impact it would have had, but realistically it would have been a fraction of what actually happened.