Coronavirus outbreak

[Snowball]

I've stopped even bothering to look at confirmed cases as its such a poor and incomparable stat. Deaths is far more useful and that is still growing massively, although there is of course a lag so hopefully in a few weeks time we might start to see a drop.

Although different countries may have different testing regimes, the average is very indicative. So, for example, the percentage relationship of cumulative cases to cumulative deaths is "stable". It's ALMOST fixed but creeping up over time at the rate of about 0.1% a day. It was

4.02% 17-Mar
4.04% 18-Mar*
4.06% 19-Mar
4.15% 20-Mar
4.26% 21-Mar
4.36% 22-Mar
4.36% 23-Mar
4.47% 24-Mar
4.53% 25-Mar
4.53% 26-Mar
4.58% 27-Mar
4.65% 28-Mar
4.71% 29-Mar

13 Days, a growth of 0.69 or 0.053 per day. In other words tomorrow you can look at the cumulative cases, multiply by 5% and you will be quite close. Incidentally the non-China number has a very similar growth, from 4.04% to 4.8% (different because the Chinese numbers have been virtually static for weeks now) 13 days to creep up 0.076% at a rate of just under 0.06 per day.

THE Stat though is, take the number of "Completed Cases". These are Discharged + Died. The ratio of these two (Deaths:Recovered) is again creeping up, but noticeably faster than Cases

13.92%
15.69%
16.32%
17.01%
17.85%
18.35%

This stat means 18% of those going into hospital don't make it out alive. It looks likely top go over 20%. How much beyond 20% is hard to guess.



*Interpolated, messed-up data



EDIT: Incidentally the model I'm using predicted 720,000 Cumulative Cases at midnight tonight. Actual number was 720,416

It had predicted 790,000 for close of play tomorrow but the curve seems to be flattening, so I would say the cumulative will be 775,000-780,000

[Snowball]

The UK Ratios don't look promising

DAILY: Cumulative Cases, Cumulative Deaths, Percentage

01,543 0,055 3.56%
01,950 0,071 3.64%
02,626 0.104 3.96%
03,269 0,144 4.41%
03,983 0,177 4.44%
05,018 0,233 4.64%
05,683 0,281 4.94%
06,650 0,335 5.04%
08,077 0,422 5.22%
09,529 0,463 4.86%
11,658 0,578 4.96%
14,579 0,759 5.21%
17,089 1,028 6.02%
19,522 1,228 6.29%
22,241 1,408 6.33% 30th (EDIT)

Our third column is climbing much quicker than the world average, even if you exclude China's figures. Tomorrow's( 30th) Cumulative Cases should reach 21,500-22,000. EDIT Actual was 22,241. If it's the lower number (21,500) and TODAY's ratio of 6.3% (EDIT) that predicts 1,401 deaths. If the ratio climbs to 7% it would be 1,557 (EDIT - wrong column copied)

Overall that suggests a jump of 173 Daily Deaths at the low end 322 at the high end. I hope the curve flattens soon. (EDIT)

The change in reporting time, dislocating Cases and Deaths makes things harder to see until things settle. (EDIT > And I note the Govt said they had missed the weekend out-of-hospital deaths)

[Uke]

Maybe there will also be some treatment by then which makes it less deadly.

Now the world knows how the gay community felt in the 80s.

Not a great feeling is it?

Urm no.. Slightly loaded comment.

With hindsight I agree it’s a classic case of White Cis-Male Privilege Straightsplaining at its worst.

We don’t have the vilification, ostracism, homophobia and the rest to cope with.

We have it much, much better than they did.

[windermereROYAL]

It`s all pretty easy for people to follow restrictions now, just a week in, weather nice but not so warm, but it`s obvious some will get bored with it, and what happens when the warm weather arrives?
It was being muted yesterday this could last for up to 6 months, that takes us back into the winter again, it`s difficult to see the whole population sitting on their hands during a summer heatwave.

[Snowball]

It`s all pretty easy for people to follow restrictions now, just a week in, weather nice but not so warm, but it`s obvious some will get bored with it, and what happens when the warm weather arrives?
It was being muted yesterday this could last for up to 6 months, that takes us back into the winter again, it`s difficult to see the whole population sitting on their hands during a summer heatwave.

Agreed. I was virtually locked down from 6th, officially from 11:00 on the 8th, then, as soon as the 14 days was done we were on the official nationwide lock-down. Prior to that (and being unwell) I would walk up to ten miles a day, or run three and do some gym-work. My flat is the size of a size-six shoebox, no room to exercise properly, and it's really starting to feel oppressive.

I've been eating LOADS more, presumably through boredom, and I was pouring wine down my throat on any pretext. I've been gaining half a pound a day and yesterday I emptied the last two bottles of red down the sink. If this is what it's like after 3+ weeks, I cannot imagine 3 months, let alone six.

I can imagine suicides rising, various sorts of mental illnesses increasing, more domestic violence. And without sunshine will we all get rickets?

Mind you, I'm reading like never before, over a book a day

[windermereROYAL]

It`s all pretty easy for people to follow restrictions now, just a week in, weather nice but not so warm, but it`s obvious some will get bored with it, and what happens when the warm weather arrives?
It was being muted yesterday this could last for up to 6 months, that takes us back into the winter again, it`s difficult to see the whole population sitting on their hands during a summer heatwave.

Agreed. I was virtually locked down from 6th, officially from 11:00 on the 8th, then, as soon as the 14 days was done we were on the official nationwide lock-down. Prior to that (and being unwell) I would walk up to ten miles a day, or run three and do some gym-work. My flat is the size of a size-six shoebox, no room to exercise properly, and it's really starting to feel oppressive.

I've been eating LOADS more, presumably through boredom, and I was pouring wine down my throat on any pretext. I've been gaining half a pound a day and yesterday I emptied the last two bottles of red down the sink. If this is what it's like after 3+ weeks, I cannot imagine 3 months, let alone six.

I can imagine suicides rising, various sorts of mental illnesses increasing, more domestic violence. And without sunshine will we all get rickets?

Mind you, I'm reading like never before, over a book a day

I`m the same, can`t stop eating. I too live in a flat, luckily I have an exersise bike, do a couple of of good workouts every day. but for the life of me i can`t imagine sitting in here day after day with 30c temperatures outside

[Snowball]

It`s all pretty easy for people to follow restrictions now, just a week in, weather nice but not so warm, but it`s obvious some will get bored with it, and what happens when the warm weather arrives?
It was being muted yesterday this could last for up to 6 months, that takes us back into the winter again, it`s difficult to see the whole population sitting on their hands during a summer heatwave.

Agreed. I was virtually locked down from 6th, officially from 11:00 on the 8th, then, as soon as the 14 days was done we were on the official nationwide lock-down. Prior to that (and being unwell) I would walk up to ten miles a day, or run three and do some gym-work. My flat is the size of a size-six shoebox, no room to exercise properly, and it's really starting to feel oppressive.

I've been eating LOADS more, presumably through boredom, and I was pouring wine down my throat on any pretext. I've been gaining half a pound a day and yesterday I emptied the last two bottles of red down the sink. If this is what it's like after 3+ weeks, I cannot imagine 3 months, let alone six.

I can imagine suicides rising, various sorts of mental illnesses increasing, more domestic violence. And without sunshine will we all get rickets?

Mind you, I'm reading like never before, over a book a day

I`m the same, can`t stop eating. I too live in a flat, luckily I have an exersise bike, do a couple of of good workouts every day. but for the life of me i can't imagine sitting in here day after day with 30c temperatures outside

I've gone on a diet, no messing, binned the wine, potatoes, bread, and I'm breaking the reading/writing up with sit-ups and press-ups. I'm still weak as a kitten, though, and my joints STILL hurt. Not sure if that is from being ill or lack of exercise but the idea of actually RUNNING, that's a laugh. I seriously think if the flat caught on fire, I would gently walk downstairs.

As for summer heat - DON'T!! I live in a second floor flat and it's like a sauna in the summer, even if I open every window, have fans on, slump around in a pair of shorts...

[Lower West]

It`s all pretty easy for people to follow restrictions now, just a week in, weather nice but not so warm, but it`s obvious some will get bored with it, and what happens when the warm weather arrives?
It was being muted yesterday this could last for up to 6 months, that takes us back into the winter again, it`s difficult to see the whole population sitting on their hands during a summer heatwave.

Agreed. I was virtually locked down from 6th, officially from 11:00 on the 8th, then, as soon as the 14 days was done we were on the official nationwide lock-down. Prior to that (and being unwell) I would walk up to ten miles a day, or run three and do some gym-work. My flat is the size of a size-six shoebox, no room to exercise properly, and it's really starting to feel oppressive.

I've been eating LOADS more, presumably through boredom, and I was pouring wine down my throat on any pretext. I've been gaining half a pound a day and yesterday I emptied the last two bottles of red down the sink. If this is what it's like after 3+ weeks, I cannot imagine 3 months, let alone six.

I can imagine suicides rising, various sorts of mental illnesses increasing, more domestic violence. And without sunshine will we all get rickets?

Mind you, I'm reading like never before, over a book a day

Go for two good walks a day. What ever the weather.

[Jagermesiter1871]

Feel fortunate to live in a house with a garden, an empty woods and field at the end of the road and a gym in garage. Isn't actually too bad so far and I've been in lockdown/WFH for over a month now.

[SCIAG]

UK government underestimating cases by 35-160 times: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

[Jagermesiter1871]

UK government underestimating cases by 35-160 times: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

That's less than I was thinking tbf.

[Snowball]

UK government underestimating cases by 35-160 times: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

(a) We aren't as far down the line. ATM our infection rate (according to the paper) is not much more than a quarter of Italy's

(b) the paper says their figures could still be wildly out

[Snowball]

Did people catch the quiet comment that the Govt is going to publish a weekly number of people dying of Covid-19 OUTSIDE hospitals? It's not clear whether those deaths (Old people's homes etc) are included in the figures.

[Zip]

Did people catch the quiet comment that the Govt is going to publish a weekly number of people dying of Covid-19 OUTSIDE hospitals? It's not clear whether those deaths (Old people's homes etc) are included in the figures.

I’ve just been asking about this on AE. It seems deaths are measured against hospital figures only at the moment.

[Snowball]

The paper predicts 2.7% of the population has actually been infected (mid of the range)

That is 1,830,420, almost two million people

Current deaths are 1,408 plus about 2,800 due in the next 14 days (4,208) from those already infected

At that rate should the whole of the population become infected that would be 155,852 Dead

At the 60% "herd immunity" percentage that would mean 93,511 dead presuming the NHS doesn't collapse

Am I reading this wrong?

[Snowball]

Did people catch the quiet comment that the Govt is going to publish a weekly number of people dying of Covid-19 OUTSIDE hospitals? It's not clear whether those deaths (Old people's homes etc) are included in the figures.

I’ve just been asking about this on AE. It seems deaths are measured against hospital figures only at the moment.

Yes, I'd heard that some people "with little/no hope" were dying at home or in OAP's Homes

Certainly been happening in Spain

[Jagermesiter1871]

The paper predicts 2.7% of the population has actually been infected (mid of the range)

That is 1,830,420, almost two million people

Current deaths are 1,408 plus about 2,800 due in the next 14 days (4,208) from those already infected

At that rate should the whole of the population become infected that would be 155,852 Dead

At the 60% "herd immunity" percentage that would mean 93,511 dead presuming the NHS doesn't collapse

Am I reading this wrong?

With those figures the death rate is very low - 0.2% if 4208, 0.07% currently.

[Snowball]

NEW CASES Last 5 days

63,408
63,489
68,154
57,773
61,563


More (some) evidence of flattening, but 2-3 weeks of 50,000+ before an actual decline would be about a million cases, and ATM the deaths/got better ratio has risen to 18.4%, meaning there are a total of 142,813 deaths in the pipe based on cumulative cases (excluding new cases and presuming no health-service collapses). The extra million cases would mean a further 184,000 deaths worldwide, totalling 326,813 Dead



BTW the modelling predicted 770-790,000 at midnight tonight and he number was 781,979 pretty much right in the middle.

[Lower West]

Peak demand in hospital is forecast in 1-2 weeks.

[Lower West]

Did people catch the quiet comment that the Govt is going to publish a weekly number of people dying of Covid-19 OUTSIDE hospitals? It's not clear whether those deaths (Old people's homes etc) are included in the figures.

I’ve just been asking about this on AE. It seems deaths are measured against hospital figures only at the moment.

Same as France.