Coronavirus outbreak

[Snowball]

There's is a simple rule of thumb estimate for deaths

This is cruder than the one I use, but...

Deaths are approximately 20% of the case-total fourteen days previous

Unfortunately that "20%" is slowly increasing

But for a ball park estimate think 20-21%

Mar-28 Actual Deaths = 19.76% of total cases 14 days before
Mar-29 Actual Deaths = 20.84% of total cases 14 days before
Mar-30 Actual Deaths = 20.73% of total cases 14 days before
Mar-31 Actual Deaths = 21.39% of total cases 14 days before

14 Days ago, cumulative deaths were 214,894.

Multiply that by the rate reached yesterday (21.39%) and you get 45,966 Deaths at midnight tonight

Apr-01 Predicted Deaths = 45,966

Currently, with 5 Hours to go we are on 45,540 and likely to go over 46,000

Please tell me that this is a typo

14 Days ago, cumulative CASES were 214,894.

The calculations to get to today's deaths were correct

[andrew1957]

I have to say that I continue to think that the fear over this COVID-19 issue is overdone.

I have just checked the Gov flu report which details flu deaths for the four years from 2014/15 through to 2017/18. An average of 21,155 died in the UK during these four years from flu including sadly a number of infants and young children, who had no pre existing health issues, but the vast majority of these deaths were for the over 65's - pretty much identical to COVID. Across the world between 300,000 and 500,000 die of flu each year but we don't shut down the global economy.

Some estimates suggest that there will only be around 20,000 UK deaths from COVID-19 which is less than in an average flu season. Of course I accept there is a small risk that it could mutate into something worse.

But overall - am I missing something?

[Snowball]

NEW CASES Last 7 days


63,408
63,489
68,154
57,773
61,563
73,028
78,571. New highest daily total cases...

[Snowball]

I have to say that I continue to think that the fear over this COVID-19 issue is overdone.

I have just checked the Gov flu report which details flu deaths for the four years from 2014/15 through to 2017/18. An average of 21,155 died in the UK during these four years from flu including sadly a number of infants and young children, who had no pre existing health issues, but the vast majority of these deaths were for the over 65's - pretty much identical to COVID. Across the world between 300,000 and 500,000 die of flu each year but we don't shut down the global economy.

Some estimates suggest that there will only be around 20,000 UK deaths from COVID-19 which is less than in an average flu season. Of course I accept there is a small risk that it could mutate into something worse.

But overall - am I missing something?

Yes, you're missing something. We have a VERY tough lockdown and even so the numbers will finish very high. The lockdown in China (according to expert estimates) prevented (as of two weeks ago) 7 MILLION Cases. Without the lockdown that 7 Million would now be 50-100 Million.

Without the lockdown in the UK we would already be closing in on 10,000 deaths.

Not sure what the latest estimates are but all the experts seem to be saying:

1. This is NOT just flu, not just like flu
2. This virus is more transmittable, has a higher r (infection rate)
3. This virus is more deadly

Flu has a usual kill-rate of one tenth of a per-cent. This virus looks like being somewhere between 0.9% and 5%, probably 1-2%

If you have a virus that might be 20 times as deadly AND more transmittable you would be talking (without these Draconian measures) of many, many millions of dead, tens of millions.

This has a long way to go. So far Africa, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are lightly hit, South America is "behind" Italy.

Italy is currently on 217.9 deaths per million. It will finish on 500 per million or worse. Spain, "behind" Italy is on 194 per million, France (also behind) is on 62 per Million. Here are a few, and understand that many of these will ROCKET. The projection for the UK is that we WILL reach the same scale as Italy. (PS Italy has 4.1 Doctors per 1,000 population, the UK has 2.8 )

766 San Marino
218 Italy
194 Spain
181 Andorra
071 Belgium
068 Holland
062 France
053 Switzerland
046 Luxembourg
035 UK

At 500 deaths per million * 67 Million (the UK population) is 33,500 deaths in the UK.

The world population is 7,800 Million (7.8 Billion). That equates to a worldwide death toll of 3.9 MILLION dead

[Jagermesiter1871]

I have to say that I continue to think that the fear over this COVID-19 issue is overdone.

I have just checked the Gov flu report which details flu deaths for the four years from 2014/15 through to 2017/18. An average of 21,155 died in the UK during these four years from flu including sadly a number of infants and young children, who had no pre existing health issues, but the vast majority of these deaths were for the over 65's - pretty much identical to COVID. Across the world between 300,000 and 500,000 die of flu each year but we don't shut down the global economy.

Some estimates suggest that there will only be around 20,000 UK deaths from COVID-19 which is less than in an average flu season. Of course I accept there is a small risk that it could mutate into something worse.

But overall - am I missing something?

Yes you've been explained this numerous times now. Looking forward to you coming back next week stating the same.

[Snowball]

I have to say that I continue to think that the fear over this COVID-19 issue is overdone.

I have just checked the Gov flu report which details flu deaths for the four years from 2014/15 through to 2017/18. An average of 21,155 died in the UK during these four years from flu including sadly a number of infants and young children, who had no pre existing health issues, but the vast majority of these deaths were for the over 65's - pretty much identical to COVID. Across the world between 300,000 and 500,000 die of flu each year but we don't shut down the global economy.

Some estimates suggest that there will only be around 20,000 UK deaths from COVID-19 which is less than in an average flu season. Of course I accept there is a small risk that it could mutate into something worse.

But overall - am I missing something?

Yes you've been explained this numerous times now. Looking forward to you coming back next week stating the same.

Maybe saying: "Without any lock-down we get 21,155 seasonal-flu deaths p.a. WITH a severe lockdown we are going to get more deaths than that from Covid-19." could do it?

[sandman]

I have to say that I continue to think that the fear over this COVID-19 issue is overdone.

I have just checked the Gov flu report which details flu deaths for the four years from 2014/15 through to 2017/18. An average of 21,155 died in the UK during these four years from flu including sadly a number of infants and young children, who had no pre existing health issues, but the vast majority of these deaths were for the over 65's - pretty much identical to COVID. Across the world between 300,000 and 500,000 die of flu each year but we don't shut down the global economy.

Some estimates suggest that there will only be around 20,000 UK deaths from COVID-19 which is less than in an average flu season. Of course I accept there is a small risk that it could mutate into something worse.

But overall - am I missing something?

Yeah. A brain by the looks of things.

[andrew1957]

I have to say that I continue to think that the fear over this COVID-19 issue is overdone.

I have just checked the Gov flu report which details flu deaths for the four years from 2014/15 through to 2017/18. An average of 21,155 died in the UK during these four years from flu including sadly a number of infants and young children, who had no pre existing health issues, but the vast majority of these deaths were for the over 65's - pretty much identical to COVID. Across the world between 300,000 and 500,000 die of flu each year but we don't shut down the global economy.

Some estimates suggest that there will only be around 20,000 UK deaths from COVID-19 which is less than in an average flu season. Of course I accept there is a small risk that it could mutate into something worse.

But overall - am I missing something?

Yeah. A brain by the looks of things.

Thank you. But my inadequate brain tells me we will all get exposed to this at some point until herd immunity is achieved. This is not going away for a couple of years lockdown or not.

[Snowball]

I have to say that I continue to think that the fear over this COVID-19 issue is overdone.

I have just checked the Gov flu report which details flu deaths for the four years from 2014/15 through to 2017/18. An average of 21,155 died in the UK during these four years from flu including sadly a number of infants and young children, who had no pre existing health issues, but the vast majority of these deaths were for the over 65's - pretty much identical to COVID. Across the world between 300,000 and 500,000 die of flu each year but we don't shut down the global economy.

Some estimates suggest that there will only be around 20,000 UK deaths from COVID-19 which is less than in an average flu season. Of course I accept there is a small risk that it could mutate into something worse.

But overall - am I missing something?

Yeah. A brain by the looks of things.

Thank you. But my inadequate brain tells me we will all get exposed to this at some point until herd immunity is achieved. This is not going away for a couple of years lockdown or not.

We don't have herd immunity to bog-standard seasonal flu.

Even if the plan WAS to get herd immunity, the point of the lock-down is to stop the number of people getting sick going to a number which means the NHS can't deal with it. It isn't about the total number of infections but how many at any one time.

[Snowball]

Weakness?

My first walk since being ill. Exactly five miles.
I usually do that in 1:23-1:26

Today 1Hr 45! about 4 minutes a mile slower. That's terrible!

Quit hogging all the exercise hours.

Managed another five April 1st (still felt like shit)

[Royalwaster]

I have to say that I continue to think that the fear over this COVID-19 issue is overdone.

I have just checked the Gov flu report which details flu deaths for the four years from 2014/15 through to 2017/18. An average of 21,155 died in the UK during these four years from flu including sadly a number of infants and young children, who had no pre existing health issues, but the vast majority of these deaths were for the over 65's - pretty much identical to COVID. Across the world between 300,000 and 500,000 die of flu each year but we don't shut down the global economy.

Some estimates suggest that there will only be around 20,000 UK deaths from COVID-19 which is less than in an average flu season. Of course I accept there is a small risk that it could mutate into something worse.

But overall - am I missing something?

Yeah. A brain by the looks of things.

Thank you. But my inadequate brain tells me we will all get exposed to this at some point until herd immunity is achieved. This is not going away for a couple of years lockdown or not.

If you really don't get it why not volunteer in your local hospital as a porter or cleaner? That way you might learn a thing or two and help achieve your own immunity as part of the herd ... or not.

[Snowball]

Journalist friend of mine tells me that German "Covid deaths" are much higher but appear lower because of their recording methods.

in the UK if someone has underlying weaknesses (Cancer, cancer-recovery, hypertension, heart-disease, COPD etc etc) but get Covid and in the opinion of doctors getting Covid precipitated the death, then it's a Covid death. Whereas, apparently, in Germany, if they have a major illness such as cancer and they die after contracting Covid, the cause of death is being posted as cancer.

Add that (presuming it's true*) to the fact that Germany is testing a far higher proportion of under 50's and their apparent death-rate is explained away.


* The journalist is at a major UK paper and not even remotely a bullshitter. I trust him

[Snowball]

Yeah. A brain by the looks of things.

Thank you. But my inadequate brain tells me we will all get exposed to this at some point until herd immunity is achieved. This is not going away for a couple of years lockdown or not.

If you really don't get it why not volunteer in your local hospital as a porter or cleaner? That way you might learn a thing or two and help achieve your own immunity as part of the herd ... or not.

I would like to volunteer. I think I had it, probably picked up in Italy-Sicily, was very unwell for 7-8 days and still pathetic.

But I had one negative test, so, given my age, I presume I wouldn't be allowed to expose myself as I'm presumed still-vulnerable. I wish they would hurry along this anti-body test, but it will probably cost silly money to have it if you're just a punter.

[andrew1957]

Yeah. A brain by the looks of things.

Thank you. But my inadequate brain tells me we will all get exposed to this at some point until herd immunity is achieved. This is not going away for a couple of years lockdown or not.

If you really don't get it why not volunteer in your local hospital as a porter or cleaner? That way you might learn a thing or two and help achieve your own immunity as part of the herd ... or not.

I gladly would if I was not a key worker already. I am aged well over 60 and have recovered from life threatening cancers twice 3 and 17 years ago (and so am probably in a high risk group) but am working normally and so I am practising what I preach, as I am more at risk than those sitting at home. My view is that if your number is up then so be it.

[SCIAG]

That’s probably a helpful frame of mind for individuals, but it’s an absolutely useless one when it comes to running a society.

[Singing Defective]

That’s probably a helpful frame of mind for individuals, but it’s an absolutely useless one when it comes to running a society.

Guess how things pan out in Sweden will show us if that is true. (Says the coward WFH)

[Stranded]

Journalist friend of mine tells me that German "Covid deaths" are much higher but appear lower because of their recording methods.

in the UK if someone has underlying weaknesses (Cancer, cancer-recovery, hypertension, heart-disease, COPD etc etc) but get Covid and in the opinion of doctors getting Covid precipitated the death, then it's a Covid death. Whereas, apparently, in Germany, if they have a major illness such as cancer and they die after contracting Covid, the cause of death is being posted as cancer.

Add that (presuming it's true*) to the fact that Germany is testing a far higher proportion of under 50's and their apparent death-rate is explained away.


* The journalist is at a major UK paper and not even remotely a bullshitter. I trust him

Yeah, its not right.

Majority of cases uncovered are in younger people as cases were initially imported by skiers, who are generally younger. Germany has a well publicised method of testing. You test and isolate a positive case. Then test anybody in immediate contact in past 14 days, any positive tests results in everybody in the next level of chain being tested and so on.

Friends were tested yesterday as their friends Dad has it. They have never met him but had contact with the friend less than 14 days ago.

Means far more cases are caught and caught early and often in younger people who can, on the whole, fight it off or get relevant treatment.

Average age of testee is 45. Average age of death is either 78 or 82, can't quite recall. The main success is older people, to date, have been pretty well protected. Sadly, not sure that will last.

Germany has ICU beds to spare currently so we are importing people who need help from France and Italy.

[Snowball]

Journalist friend of mine tells me that German "Covid deaths" are much higher but appear lower because of their recording methods.

in the UK if someone has underlying weaknesses (Cancer, cancer-recovery, hypertension, heart-disease, COPD etc etc) but get Covid and in the opinion of doctors getting Covid precipitated the death, then it's a Covid death. Whereas, apparently, in Germany, if they have a major illness such as cancer and they die after contracting Covid, the cause of death is being posted as cancer.

Add that (presuming it's true*) to the fact that Germany is testing a far higher proportion of under 50's and their apparent death-rate is explained away.


* The journalist is at a major UK paper and not even remotely a bullshitter. I trust him

Yeah, its not right.

Majority of cases uncovered are in younger people as cases were initially imported by skiers, who are generally younger. Germany has a well publicised method of testing. You test and isolate a positive case. Then test anybody in immediate contact in past 14 days, any positive tests results in everybody in the next level of chain being tested and so on.

Friends were tested yesterday as their friends Dad has it. They have never met him but had contact with the friend less than 14 days ago.

Means far more cases are caught and caught early and often in younger people who can, on the whole, fight it off or get relevant treatment.

Average age of testee is 45. Average age of death is either 78 or 82, can't quite recall. The main success is older people, to date, have been pretty well protected. Sadly, not sure that will last.

Germany has ICU beds to spare currently so we are importing people who need help from France and Italy.

Thanks for that, Stranded, and well done Germany for the bolded bit above

[Stranded]

Thank you. But my inadequate brain tells me we will all get exposed to this at some point until herd immunity is achieved. This is not going away for a couple of years lockdown or not.

If you really don't get it why not volunteer in your local hospital as a porter or cleaner? That way you might learn a thing or two and help achieve your own immunity as part of the herd ... or not.

I gladly would if I was not a key worker already. I am aged well over 60 and have recovered from life threatening cancers twice 3 and 17 years ago (and so am probably in a high risk group) but am working normally and so I am practising what I preach, as I am more at risk than those sitting at home. My view is that if your number is up then so be it.

Problem is you don't get to choose if you get it in the real world and more importantly you can't choose who mat get infected as part of your infection chain.

[karbota]

Mr Farage as ever showing true leadership.

"The global pandemic caused by the Coronavirus means our country is in a serious crisis, along with the rest of the world. We will come through this massive, difficult challenge. However, the vital decisions that are taken over the next few weeks will have a huge bearing on the recovery, both in terms of scale and speed. The social and economic impacts of this crisis are profound. Our Prime Minister needs to show true leadership as confidence is slipping fast; he should change the ministers responsible for delivering on testing and equipping our brave NHS workers, for others who can perform.

Incredibly, its exactly one year ago today that we took the decision to activate the Brexit Party with the slogan Change Politics for Good. What a year its been!

So much has happened. Firstly, thank you for your incredible support. The Brexit Party had a huge impact, rescuing Brexit, and forcing substantial change in the leadership of the Conservatives. They then won a massive majority in the General Election by adopting many of our proposals. There would have been no Brexit without The Brexit Party.

There is much more to be done to keep trying to change things for the good. I have been keen to praise the Prime Minister on things well done, such as on Brexit so far since the election.

However, there are big issues where I have been critical. Apart from HS2, the decision to proceed with the Chinese firm Huawei on our 5G network flies in the face of common sense. Our main security partners in the Five Eyes network are furious with us. The Coronavirus crisis has clearly already taught us that we must be much more self-dependent on critical infrastructure and key supplies. Once this crisis is over there needs to be some serious debate about our relationship with China.

We know that we can still have an impact on public opinion and ensure positive change. Thank you for your continuing support".

So do you still want open Borders?, the free movement of people?, mass immigration? over population?. Me thinks the times (and mood) are a changing.