Coronavirus outbreak

[Wycombe Royal]

Well, yeah, but the full post was

No it wasn't, the full post I quoted from was (bottom of page 41):

Passed the million mark at 19:02 GMT Thursday April 2nd

1,000,018 Confirmed Cases, 51,354 Deaths, 37,000 Serious or Critical

19.63% of resolved cases were deaths

[The Real Sandhurst Royal]

Covid 19 cases in the Berkshire areas as of the 2nd April @ 9am

Bracknell Forest: 36
Reading: 67
Slough: 117
West Berkshire: 66
Windsor & Maidenhead: 75
Wokingham: 67

[Snowball]

On the Death Rate for Confirmed Cases

As mentioned earlier, for Official Confirmed Cases there is a death rate. Clearly as these include all hospitalised people it is measuring more serious cases. This has nothing to do with the overall population death rate. Crudely, it's the "death rate if you go into hospital"

It has now crept up from 15% to 20% and still appears to be rising, but is it the same across countries? This table is for the ten (so far) worst hit countries and represents 80% of the world's Official Reported Cases. There are at least four anomalies.

The UK and Holland are only reporting a tiny number of Recovered Cases. This makes their death rate look stupidly high and is obviously wrong. China's figures have been iffy since the beginning and I can see no realistic reason why their health care should be TEN TIMES better than Italy's, 9 times that of the USA, 7 times that of Spain and France.

Germany has two things going against it stat-wise. First they have been measuring (and confirming) a much younger demographic. Second, reports say they are under-reporting Covid-linked deaths by calling them (for example) Cancer where that was a pre-existing condition.

Recovered >> Died >> RATE

18,278 - - - 13,915 - - - 43.22% - - - Italy
10,403 - - - 06,095 - - - 36.94% - - - USA
12,428 - - - 05,387 - - - 30.24% - - - France
02,495 - - - 1,011 - - - - 28.84% - - - Belgium
26,743 - - - 10,348 - - - 27.90% - - - Spain
16,711 - - - 03,160 - - - 15.90% - - - Iran

FULL Top-Ten TABLE
00,135 - - - 02,921 - - - 95.58% - - - UK ................ IGNORE, ATM
00,250 - - - 01,339 - - - 84.27% - - - Holland.......... IGNORE ATM

18,278 - - - 13,915 - - - 43.22% - - - Italy
10,403 - - - 06,095 - - - 36.94% - - - USA
12,428 - - - 05,387 - - - 30.24% - - - France
02,495 - - - 1,011 - - - - 28.84% - - - Belgium
26,743 - - - 10,348 - - - 27.90% - - - Spain
16,711 - - - 03,160 - - - 15.90% - - - Iran

22,440 - - - 01,107 - - - 04.70% - - - Germany
76,052 - - - 03,322 - - - 04.19% - - - China


What must be concerning is the mid-range countries Spain, Belgium, France, USA and Italy 28% to 43% Mortality for Confirmed Cases

[Snowball]

Well, yeah, but the full post was

No it wasn't, the full post I quoted from was (bottom of page 41):

Passed the million mark at 19:02 GMT Thursday April 2nd

1,000,018 Confirmed Cases, 51,354 Deaths, 37,000 Serious or Critical

19.63% of resolved cases were deaths

Wyc, what are you on about? That is what I replied with, in bold

[Hound]

================================================

For about the fortieth time, the flattening of the curve is NOT designed to mean less people will get Covid-19. The flattening is to try to prevent very high infection peaks when a LOT of people get Covid at the same time thus making the NHS run out of beds and intensive care gear.

I think everyone understands that. However it is flattening A curve, not flattening THE curve

It’s a valid concern as to where we go from this point. Permanent on/off lockdown until (if) and vaccine is discovered and mass produced? That will devastate the economy and drive people nuts

If we spend the next couple of months in lockdown and then come out again - other than being better prepared, with the NHS Better funded/equipped - we’re back at square 1 really. There won’t be any herd immunity as those who have had it as a percentage is still tiny. Maybe just being better prepared is as good as we can hope for

[Zip]

If we come out of lockdown in say June I suspect a significant proportion of the public are going to be very reluctant to go back to work in their usual way knowing they are going to contract this virus.

[Hound]

Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

[windermereROYAL]

Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

Just because you flatten the curve doesn`t mean the virus has gone, the sad fact is COVID-19 is here to stay, you can reduce the infections but it will come and come again. in short until there is a vaccine we have to live with it in or midst.

It`s anyones guess when we will see normal life again, let alone football.

[Hound]

Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

Just because you flatten the curve doesn`t mean the virus has gone, the sad fact is COVID-19 is here to stay, you can reduce the infections but it will come and come again. in short until there is a vaccine we have to live with it in or midst.

It`s anyones guess when we will see normal life again, let alone football.

Yep exactly. Which is why I think we need to start thinking quite quickly about what life looks like in a months time (and communicating this out) rather than just suggesting that ‘locking down’ everything as much as possible now is any kind of fix

[SCIAG]

Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

Just because you flatten the curve doesn`t mean the virus has gone, the sad fact is COVID-19 is here to stay, you can reduce the infections but it will come and come again. in short until there is a vaccine we have to live with it in or midst.

It`s anyones guess when we will see normal life again, let alone football.

If we could shut down transmission so that the average patient infects less than one person, then it would die out.

[Snowball]

Oh, agreed on lockdown, the curve, a curve, curves, but the crucial thing is keeping the numbers sick at any time below the maximum number the NHS can manage.

It's a horrible set of choices between damaging/collapsing the economy, straining the NHS, "allowing for" extra deaths, triaging = letting old people die, but the idea (mooted by the moron Cummings) of letting people just get it, herd immunity etc was just plain BONKERS.

Those who suggested that forget that most of our so-called "herd immunities" didn't come from letting everybody just get the disease, it came from vaccinations like MMR. Experts (I think it was the WHO said about 3-4 weeks ago that China would have gone to 9 Million Cases (140 times as many as they actually had, but that would then have doubled every 4 days.

We have had measles epidemics, polio epidemics, mumps, cholera, typhoid, the plague. We know how many deaths can occur in a world where there were nothing like as many people, where we weren't so densely packed, where travel was less frequent, slower, and in far smaller numbers.

4-Day Doubling

24-Feb 75,815 WUHAN ONLY CASES
28-Feb 151,630
04-Mar 303,260
09-Mar 606,520
14-Mar 1,213,040
19-Mar 2,426,080
24-Mar 4,852,160
29-Mar 9,704,320
03-Apr 19,408,640 <<<<<

That is China alone would be 19 times what the world is now suffering, the health system would have collapsed weeks ago.

08-Apr 38,817,280
13-Apr 77,634,560
18-Apr 155,269,120
23-Apr 310,538,240
28-Apr 621,076,480
03-May 1,242,152,960
08-May 2,484,305,920
13-May 4,968,611,840... five BILLION, most of the world. That's what "unchecked" does
17-May?

My point is that we have to stop the death toll, whatever it costs economically. We can recover from wars, we have done more than once. We can't recover from being dead.

This will almost certainly change the world, and we will probably be feeling the effects for decades, but we have to slow the virus then stop the virus, or reduce each peak until a virus comes along. (By then it may have muted, but that's another story).

In 1918 politics made governments down-play that virus. That went well.

[Snowball]

If we could shut down transmission so that the average patient infects less than one person, then it would die out.

Yes and No (presuming there is no new animal >> human source)


You have to get r significantly under 1.

Imagine an r of 0.95.

We currently have 750,000 Confirmed Live Cases. We are approaching 80,000 Cases per day. If TODAY we got the infection rate down to 0.95 we would still get huge numbers infected every day

New Cases

04-Apr 76,000
05-Apr 72,200
06-Apr 68,590
07-Apr 65,161
08-Apr 61,902
09-Apr 58,807
10-Apr 55,867
11-Apr 53,074
12-Apr 50,420

at r=0.95 we'd be getting 450 new cases per day 13-July, a total of 1,591,451 New Cases on top of the 1,000,000+ we have had date. So that would be 2.6 Million, or keep it simple 2.6 times as many deaths all round IF health services didn't collapse

At a rate of 0.9 we would be down to 27 cases per day, 18th June, about 800,000 new cases on top of where we are now.

At a rate of 0.9 we would be down to 26 cases per day, 19th May about 400,000 new cases on top of where we are now.



I suppose, in all honesty, we'd take any of those. But the infections would still be occurring and any relaxation of the lockdown would mean an upturn in new cases and eventual deaths.

at an r of 0.95 the UK deaths would be approximately 30,662*2.6%*20% = 15,900

I think that would be "a result", but we aren't under r=1 yet, are we?

[Royal Rother]

The serious / critical stats are not useful. Ours has remained unchanged at 163 for the last week.

[Royal Rother]

Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

Is it the case that early lockdowns can actually be counter-productive in the long run?

[Hound]

Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

Is it the case that early lockdowns can actually be counter-productive in the long run?

dunno, thats for brighter minds than me to look at. Some sort of herd-immunity does seem to be the only way out in the long run, and thats only achieved by exposing people to it, or creating a vaccine which may or may not work and maybe 18 months away anyway. Obvs the early lockdown is just reducing all exposure to it.

[Snowball]

The serious / critical stats are not useful. Ours has remained unchanged at 163 for the last week.

I know. A few countries don't seem to be publishing them, but some ARE and there numbers seem reasonable

[tmesis]

Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

what's being seen a lot in Asia is people returning from Europe/USA with the virus and spreading it

[Snowball]

Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

what's being seen a lot in Asia is people returning from Europe/USA with the virus and spreading it

So why are they not quarantining them for at least 14 days, as the Chinese are doing?

[windermereROYAL]

Seeing reports of queues of traffic on Oxford road to get into B&M garden centre and the police are in attendance, words fail me sometimes.

It like a holidays for these brainless pricks. I`m almost dreading the warm weather.

[tmesis]

Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

what's being seen a lot in Asia is people returning from Europe/USA with the virus and spreading it

So why are they not quarantining them for at least 14 days, as the Chinese are doing?

They tell them to, but people are ignoring the advice, just as they do here.

One guy was so unwell with it after flying back, that he died on the train home to his town after leaving the airport. Thailand is imposing curfews now