Coronavirus outbreak

[Snowball]

Seeing reports of queues of traffic on Oxford road to get into B&M garden centre and the police are in attendance, words fail me sometimes.

It like a holidays for these brainless pricks. Im almost dreading the warm weather.

Agree on the individual stupidity but why haven't the Govt/Local Authorities shut them down?

I went to get some fresh veg this morning, kept finding old people walking straight into my "6 feet" as if it was just any other Friday.

[Jackson Corner]

This is way worse than the government are telling us. You can tell by there faces at the daily conference. Boris does not have covid-19 Putin has not been seen and Trump makes one token appearance a day. All the world leaders have been conspicuous by there absence. They are making some emergency plan to save the human race. We are all going to die. My advice cherish your loved one’s whilst you still can. The doomsday clock is clicking.

[Hendo]

This is way worse than the government are telling us. You can tell by there faces at the daily conference. Boris does not have covid-19 Putin has not been seen and Trump makes one token appearance a day. All the world leaders have been conspicuous by there absence. They are making some emergency plan to save the human race. We are all going to die. My advice cherish your loved one’s whilst you still can. The doomsday clock is clicking.

[Nevpay]

This is way worse than the government are telling us. You can tell by there faces at the daily conference. Boris does not have covid-19 Putin has not been seen and Trump makes one token appearance a day. All the world leaders have been conspicuous by there absence. They are making some emergency plan to save the human race. We are all going to die. My advice cherish your loved one’s whilst you still can. The doomsday clock is clicking.

Wow!!! You heard it here first folks!!

[Cape Town Royal]

Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

what's being seen a lot in Asia is people returning from Europe/USA with the virus and spreading it

So why are they not quarantining them for at least 14 days, as the Chinese are doing?

I can only talk clearly about Japan, so until recently anyone entering the country had go into 14 days quarantine and to do that they had to have a place to stay here and had to have pre-arranged non-public transport to take them to their place of quarantine. If they did not have that then they were not allowed to leave the airport and were held their. Now all non-Japanese nationals from most of the world cannot get in at all. Visa's are no longer valid.

Within Japan itself the debate is high. Public buildings museums etc are closed and prefecture (large counties) governments are telling private spaces like these to close. Schools have been closed since Feb. However, sports clubs are still running, most shops are still open, transport is still running and people are still going to work. For example, a friend of mine lives in Suma and travels an hour each way to Osaka to work each day. He's a designer and could work from home.

The issue here is the central government is weak and seemingly cannot make the decision to shut the country down. This is a cultural thing, since WWII Japan has had a peaceful constitution so have avoided conflicts and apart from earthquakes has had few disasters to deal with. This coupled with a good standard of living and being an island nation means the average Japanese see's things happening in the world as happening elsewhere and not affecting them. Added to this, they simply do not trust the politicians.

So, when the politicians weakly say we would prefer you not to eat out and to try to work from home. No one truly believes them because they do not deliver the message anywhere near as strongly as Boris has.

Japanese people are naturally cautious and health conscious so given the above comments what you have here now is a government wanting people to isolate but not brave enough to make them do it... "we'll see where we are in a few days" and a population split with half doing what they can to minimise contact and the other half just carrying on as normal.

It's a long answer but that's why we haven't been quarantined here yet.

I know a little about Taiwan too because I have friends there and they have told me that their approach is to test a lot and especially in public places, train stations etc.. Anyone found to have a high temperature is immediately isolated and taken for testing and if they are positive then they trace back their movements and anyone they have been in contact is also isolated.

They have been successful so far because numbers in Taiwan are low, which is amazing given the amount of Chinese tourists that go there. Though Pooh Bear may have done Taiwan a favour here, because in his attempt to force Taiwan back under Chinese control he has reduced the number of visas to visit there an in doing so has reduced the number of tourists visiting Taiwan from the mainland which has probably also reduced the infection rate..

I know less of the Korean approach but have discussed it a little with some Korean friends and their approach seems similar to the Taiwan one, test a lot and then work hard to isolate though they have been in contact with. That's why they are so pissed with the religious group blamed for starting the outbreak because they refused to divulge it and by the time they did it was too late to shut it down. A bit like what happened in China though this time not by the state.

Out of Korea, Taiwan and Japan, my worry is for us here, because of the reasons highlighted above. Our numbers are growing and as you have seen in the UK unless you check it will double and quickly. Tokyo admitted in 40% of the cases recently they could not trace it back to the source, Greater Tokyo is 25-30M people, If it breaks out there (its where the majority of the recent cases are) and people start running back to the places in Japan they came from (many move there for work like with London) then it could spread all over Japan very quickly.

To answer your question why have we not quarantined here, my answer is ask Abe, its what most of the country is doing right now.

[Cape Town Royal]

Seeing reports of queues of traffic on Oxford road to get into B&M garden centre and the police are in attendance, words fail me sometimes.

It like a holidays for these brainless pricks. Im almost dreading the warm weather.

Agree on the individual stupidity but why haven't the Govt/Local Authorities shut them down?

I went to get some fresh veg this morning, kept finding old people walking straight into my "6 feet" as if it was just any other Friday.[/quote

Same in Japan, I went to the supermarket and there were 4 old ladies inspecting loose cucumbers for the best one. Between them they must have picked up 50 looked at them and put the ones they did not want back. That was over about 2 minutes. Multiply that by the amount of time the shop is open and its scary to think how many potential Corona's touched them. We skipped the Cucumbers and I told my wife from now one we are only buying pre-packaged fruit and veg and to make sure we wash everything.

[windermereROYAL]

That prick on the daily news conference saying masks give you no protection, that will be very comforting to all the NHS staff that wear them.

[Snowball]

That prick on the daily news conference saying masks give you no protection, that will be very comforting to all the NHS staff that wear them.

Dumb question but are the masks used hospitals the same as the masks used by punters in the street?

[windermereROYAL]

That prick on the daily news conference saying masks give you no protection, that will be very comforting to all the NHS staff that wear them.

Dumb question but are the masks used hospitals the same as the masks used by punters in the street?

Doesn`t matter, the comment in itself was irresponsible . it will strike fear into the nurses on the front line.

[Jagermesiter1871]

That prick on the daily news conference saying masks give you no protection, that will be very comforting to all the NHS staff that wear them.

Dumb question but are the masks used hospitals the same as the masks used by punters in the street?

They easily can be. Punters can get the exact same masks, i.e N95 masks or surgical masks that healthcare professionals will be.

[Snowball]

NEW CASES Last 9 days


63,408 - - - 2,882 Deaths
63,489 - - - 3,197 Deaths
68,154 - - - 3,590 Deaths
57,773 - - - 3,063 Deaths
61,563 - - - 3,698 Deaths
73,028 - - - 4,463 Deaths
78,571 - - - 4,785 Deaths
78,911 - - - 6,033 Deaths **
83,642 - - - 5,890 Deaths


** (included a one-off extra 884 deaths, France)

[Nameless]

That prick on the daily news conference saying masks give you no protection, that will be very comforting to all the NHS staff that wear them.

Dumb question but are the masks used hospitals the same as the masks used by punters in the street?

Doesn`t matter, the comment in itself was irresponsible . it will strike fear into the nurses on the front line.

Don’t be daft.
The reasons why the masks are not seen as essential for the general public are clear. It’s not so much about the mask themselves, it’s about how they are used. Health staff knowhow to take them on and off and dispose of them, they know how often to change them, they know what protection they offer so don’t assume they don’t need to do all the other stuff.
They also won’t be getting their advice from people off the TV, they will trust their clinical bosses.
Would you rather the guy had said ‘yep, wear a mask and you’ll be fine’ ? Immediate panic buying (and every mask in the hands of someone who isn’t an essential wearer is one less for a nurse or care worker) , and a drop in social distancing and hand washing as people assume the mask solves all problems.

[Snowball]

Don't know if there has been a computer glitch in the data collection for both the John Hopkins site and WorldoMeter but

The rise in new cases from midnight to 0600/0700 is usually quite low,

4,202
1,688
3,000
1,688
2,969
2,973
3,324
5,031
3,885
4,205
1,259

about 3,100 overnight average

but this morning 22,115
which is stratospherically different.


EDIT = 22791 at 08:20 What's going on?

It may be that all countries overnight decided to add in Nursing Home and Home deaths, but if not, WTF?




EDIT

There IS something weird happening

The WorldoMeter spreadsheet shows 1,661 extra cases since 00:00 GMT 1,118,304 Total Cases = +1,661

but the difference between last night's close (1,096,130) and this morning's total (1,118,202) is that 22,072

[Snowball]

Found it?


France: on April 3 the French Government reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths from nursing homes that had not been reported previously.

On April 2, it had reported 884 additional deaths.

That explains why France jumped up the rankings overnight.


EDIT: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/
Take a look at their graph for new daily cases


We can only wonder what the other countries are doing with Nursing Home and "at home" deaths. That is (for France) 1,416 "extra" deaths out of a total of 6,507. 1,416 extra deaths on an original total of 5,091 is a hike of 27.81%

If all countries are/were not reporting non-hospital we could be under-reporting total deaths by 20-28%

at 25% that would be 279,730 so far not-counted deaths

[Linden Jones' Tash]

Coding conventions and under-reporting, whether politically driven or not are rife.

With the rise of authoritarian regimes and their use of 'fake news' and undermining legitimate institutions, it's going to get harder to find robust information.

Modelling based on quality assumptions is probably as good as it gets

I saw one source questioning the ONS general mortality data for recent time periods even before the outbreak

[Snowball]

Coding conventions and under-reporting, whether politically driven or not are rife.

With the rise of authoritarian regimes and their use of 'fake news' and undermining legitimate institutions, it's going to get harder to find robust information.

Modelling based on quality assumptions is probably as good as it gets

I saw one source questioning the ONS general mortality data for recent time periods even before the outbreak

I'm sure you're right. The way China is so bucking the trend is particularly suss.

I didn't know this until this morning but on the WorldoMeter site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries you can click on individual countries and see analyses (hence I could see the sudden hike in "New Cases and "Deaths" for France

France: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

UK: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

USA: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Also, at the bottom of the home page = https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries there are a string of news reports from various countries (with sources quoted)

Kuwait had its first death, an Indian man who appeared to be recovering well, and then "suddenly deteriorated". I remember reading about this pattern a few weeks ago. The report was saying there's almost a life-or-death moment at 14 Days. Patients, even when improving noticeably can abruptly "fall off a cliff". I think the term is "sudden collapse"

[Linden Jones' Tash]

Coding conventions and under-reporting, whether politically driven or not are rife.

With the rise of authoritarian regimes and their use of 'fake news' and undermining legitimate institutions, it's going to get harder to find robust information.

Modelling based on quality assumptions is probably as good as it gets

I saw one source questioning the ONS general mortality data for recent time periods even before the outbreak

I'm sure you're right. The way China is so bucking the trend is particularly suss.

I didn't know this until this morning but on the WorldoMeter site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries you can click on individual countries and see analyses (hence I could see the sudden hike in "New Cases and "Deaths" for France

France: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

UK: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

USA: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Also, at the bottom of the home page = https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries there are a string of news reports from various countries (with sources quoted)

Kuwait had its first death, an Indian man who appeared to be recovering well, and then "suddenly deteriorated". I remember reading about this pattern a few weeks ago. The report was saying there's almost a life-or-death moment at 14 Days. Patients, even when improving noticeably can abruptly "fall off a cliff". I think the term is "sudden collapse"

Yes, I use this source to compare countries, I did the Italy - 14 days thing so check how we were tracking til it became obvious and then I found the FT data journalist who tweets daily charts.

UK is tracking above Italy now

US is a whole different ball game...

[Franchise FC]

Coding conventions and under-reporting, whether politically driven or not are rife.

With the rise of authoritarian regimes and their use of 'fake news' and undermining legitimate institutions, it's going to get harder to find robust information.

Modelling based on quality assumptions is probably as good as it gets

I saw one source questioning the ONS general mortality data for recent time periods even before the outbreak

I'm sure you're right. The way China is so bucking the trend is particularly suss.

I didn't know this until this morning but on the WorldoMeter site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries you can click on individual countries and see analyses (hence I could see the sudden hike in "New Cases and "Deaths" for France

France: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

UK: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

USA: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Also, at the bottom of the home page = https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries there are a string of news reports from various countries (with sources quoted)

Kuwait had its first death, an Indian man who appeared to be recovering well, and then "suddenly deteriorated". I remember reading about this pattern a few weeks ago. The report was saying there's almost a life-or-death moment at 14 Days. Patients, even when improving noticeably can abruptly "fall off a cliff". I think the term is "sudden collapse"

Yes, I use this source to compare countries, I did the Italy - 14 days thing so check how we were tracking til it became obvious and then I found the FT data journalist who tweets daily charts.

UK is tracking above Italy now

US is a whole different ball game...

US are clearly top of the table, and I think they have a game in hand.
Italy’s goal difference is exceptional though

[Snowball]

US are clearly top of the table, and I think they have a game in hand.
Italy’s goal difference is exceptional though

The US is so ridiculous it almost defies belief (cliche alert) but yesterday's Trumpism, "The CDC say wear masks, ADVISE you to wear masks, but ME, nah, I'm not wearing a oxf*rd mask!"


He probably killed an extra 50,000 with that ludicrous me-me-me rant.

[Snowball]

The Unknown Infected Rate
Cannot be higher than 391:1

Spain has 119,827 Confirmed Cases in a country of 46,750,756 people.

That is Confirmed Cases are 1 now in every 392 people. This means that the hidden infection rate (ie not Officially Confirmed) would be 391:1 IF EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN SPAIN WAS ALREADY INFECTED.

This, then, for Spain, means that the maximum POSSIBLE multiplier is 391. That is the maximum possible answer to the question "How many people have got the virus (but unconfirmed) for every person who HAS been confirmed?"

Unless you believe that every person in Spain is already infected, then clearly the confirmed/unknown ratio HAS TO BE significantly lower than 392.


I did a calculation yesterday in a different way (before yesterday's totals) which maxed the UK at 391. I looked at the total tests and the percentage positive versus percentage negative. That 391figure is way, WAY higher than the eventual number will be, unless you wish to argue that every single human being in the UK already has the virus.

The calculation was simple. I thought, "Well we are testing highly-likely cases. Cases that are dead, dying, seriously ill, very ill, showing some symptoms, or have returned from a danger area, or have had close contact with a known case. This is clearly not a random sample. It's going to get a higher percentage of positives than a survey, say, of every single person in Reading.

The total tested (people with a good chance of being positive) were 173,784 and 38,168 (21.96%) of these were found to be positive.

It beggars belief to imagine this ratio would be the same ratio in the total UK population but what if it was?

What if, yesterday the number of people infected was 14,934,770 (68 Million * 21.96%)? That gives a MAXIMUM, a stupidly OTT number of 391... compared to Spain's 392

If you think that ALREADY a quarter of the UK and a quarter of Spain is infected. (Surely a massive over-statement?) then, even at that bonkers figure, the Confirmed: Missed Ratio would be 1:98