A Few Thoughts on the Last Eight Games

[Snowball]

First, I know it didn't happen for us at Birmingham, but had that been a 1-1 draw our last 6 would be W3 D3, 12 points from 6 games, essentially "top two form" over a season.

Even with that dumb defeat our last six has yielded 11 points, and if the next 6 yielded 11 we'd be on 73 points with Norwich (0?) and Huddersfield (3?) left to play.

The next 8 seem very much to do with "bottle" or "character" (maybe luck either way) and it's a no-brainer to say we have three MASSIVE games each of which could make or break our season. Barnsley, Cardiff, Swansea.

For me the game at Barnsley could well be season-defining.

Lose 2-0 and we are 5 points behind, similar GD to Barnsley with 7 games to go, and the boost they would get would be HUGE.

Win there, even just 0-1 and we are ahead of Barnsley with a GD six goals better and just seven games left.

And that's just Barnsley = "virtually uncatchable" if we lose. Bournemouth are at home (BORO) that day and Cardiff are home to Forest, with great chances of catching us (BMTH, still game in hand) or closing the gap to 1 point (Cardiff).

Point is lose to Barnsley and we will need a miracle, win, and I think we could finish as high as 80 points

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

We have 62 Points. And three form tables.

Last 6 Games >>>>>>> 76-77 Point Finish
All 38 Games >>>>>>> 75 Point Finish
Last 30 Games >>>>>>> 72-73 Point Finish

We have averaged 1.63 points per game over the season (38 Games), which would leave us on 75

Take out the first 8 games and we have averaged 1.33 ppg since (12th). That should give us 10.7 points, so 10-11, meaning 72 or 73

Look at our last six games (11 points) = 1.83 ppg gives us 14.7 (14or 15) and a final total of 76 or 77

===================================================

Last Season, last game, Swansea won 1-4 at Reading to make the play-offs on GD from Forest, both on just 70 points


After 38 Games the table was:

71 WBA
71 Leeds
64 Fulham
63 Brentford
61 Forest
57 Preston
57 Cardiff
56 Blackburn
56 Swansea

Final top six in bold


NOW?



P38 GD 29 83 Points Norwich
P38 GD 29 75 Points Watford
======================
P37 GD 16 69 Points Swansea
P37 GD 26 68 Points Brentford
P38 GD 07 64 Points Barnsley
P38 GD 29 62 Points READING
========================
P38 GD 18 59 Points Bournemouth
P38 GD 18 58 Points Cardiff

So, right now we are

SIX points better-off than Swansea were at this time last season,

five points better than Cardiff were,

and a point better than Forest who totally blew up in their last six games W0 D3 l3 and finished 7th on GD.

We are just a point behind where Brentford were after 38 last season and they finished 3rd!!

Final Thought

Can we beat Derby and Huddersfield at Home, and win at Luton?

More than possible = 9 points

Can we draw with Barnsley, Cardiff, Swansea, or WLL (takes us to 12 points = 74)

That presumes we lose at Norwich and Watford.


If we can get 12 from 8, which is nothing too-special, Cardiff would need to get 16 from 8, BMTH 15 from 9, Barnsley 11 from 8 presuming our GD remains better than theirs.



NOTE. After 38 games Barnsley and Luton were the bottom two and both escaped!


====================================

I am not "making predictions" here, just pointing out we are still in there with a seriously-decent chance, but our next game, psychologically will be very, very, important. Will we go there for 0-0 or go there trying to win? How much will we want it?

Things can change so quickly in this league. Brentford "the best team" are wobbling again. Watford "can't score" are on a roll and now have a GD of 29, the same as "ordinary" Norwich who might yet break 106.

Swansea interest me. Not so long ago they looked favourites for second place, and seem to keep getting last minute pens, but suddenly they look very beatable, hammered 3-0, then 1-0 at home, plus one drew at Blackburn and squeezed past Luton 1-0. I think, one more bad result soon and they could do a Forest. As well as coming to The Madejski they have to go to Millwall and Watford

[Snowflake Royal]

Form would see us get about 12 from the last 8. Which would see us on about 74.

I think we probably need 76 to be reasonably confident of making the play offs and the run in is tough.

I think we'll just fall short, but it's likely to be close. My best guess is we go into the last game needing a win and someone else to drop points.

The benefit is, wins against Swansea and Barnsley and/or Cardiff in particular go a huge way to securing us a place.

[Simmops]

Is there a tl:dr?

[WestYorksRoyal]

Is there a tl:dr?

It's not that bad and we may still make the POs

[Royal Rother]

The big question for Paunovic in the run-in is what do with the striking options.

Does he persist with the currently hapless Joao and hope he comes back to form or drop him and hope Puscas can knock a few in as main striker?

Persisting with Joao could work and carry us to the play offs, or could completely blow it if he keeps missing chances he’d have buried a couple of months ago. But Puscas has never entirely convinced and changing the approach play to accommodate his different needs as a striker is also hard to achieve.

Personally I think Joao’s head is gone and dropping him is the right option (with a view to bringing him back for the last 3 or 4 games with a massive point to prove although I’m not sure that sort of move would actually work with Joao) but that’s a really tough call.

A fit Meite’s presence is guaranteed of course but not as a lone striker if other options are available.

[From Despair To Where?]

Is there a tl:dr?

Yep, the games against Barnsley, Swansea and Cardiff are crucial for our play off chances.

I think Bob Dylan put it best when he said "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows"

[Snowball]

Is there a tl:dr?

Yep, the games against Barnsley, Swansea and Cardiff are crucial for our play off chances.

I think Bob Dylan put it best when he said "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows"

Barnsley is probably the biggest" BIG GAME" as a win there is massive, a draw is meh. But more-so because of the psychological value of that particular win, a win that would set the tone for the last seven.

Just keeping the gap the same to BMTH, Cardiff, Swansea while reducing the number of games, but leap-frogging to 5th meaning BMTH and Cardiff are threatening Barnsley, not so much us, and have less wriggle-room.

Lose to Barnsley and we then probably have to beat four of Derby, Huddersfield, Cardiff, Swansea, Luton, and not lose to Cardiff.

I feel fairly confident in saying, if we lose at Barnsley it's 98% over.

[Snowball]

Is there a tl:dr?

Is there abl4m-Ihavsa-s?

[Simmops]

Is there a tl:dr?

Is there abl4m-Ihavsa-s?

Dafuq you on about Willis?

[Simmops]

Is there a tl:dr?

Yep, the games against Barnsley, Swansea and Cardiff are crucial for our play off chances.

I think Bob Dylan put it best when he said "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows"

Are you calling me thick?

[Simmops]

Is there a tl:dr?

It's not that bad and we may still make the POs

Whoever said this is bad after the last 4 seasons is a bedwetting Nancy and needs to get their head checked....

If we don't make the playoffs its still good.

[Snowflake Royal]

The big question for Paunovic in the run-in is what do with the striking options.

Does he persist with the currently hapless Joao and hope he comes back to form or drop him and hope Puscas can knock a few in as main striker?

Persisting with Joao could work and carry us to the play offs, or could completely blow it if he keeps missing chances he’d have buried a couple of months ago. But Puscas has never entirely convinced and changing the approach play to accommodate his different needs as a striker is also hard to achieve.

Personally I think Joao’s head is gone and dropping him is the right option (with a view to bringing him back for the last 3 or 4 games with a massive point to prove although I’m not sure that sort of move would actually work with Joao) but that’s a really tough call.

A fit Meite’s presence is guaranteed of course but not as a lone striker if other options are available.

I don't think there's any chance Joao will get dropped. Pauno has the international break to work with him. Maybe, maybe he'll get dropped if he struggles afterwards, but it'll take 2-4 games to do it IMO.

[Lower West]

Defensive options are now looking very thin. We have missed Swift badly in recent weeks. Injuries and suspensions are going to influence the outcome of the final weeks of the season.

[Royal_jimmy]

I think injuries will have a massive say on whether we'll make the playoffs or not. We need Swift back and hope him, Joao, Meite and Morrison, Rino, Richards and Laurent stay injury free. In other words the spine of our team.

If we did lose to Barnsley we'd need to win away to Watford or Norwich and beat Cardiff and at least draw with Swansea which would be a big ask.

I'm not buying some comments on here about missing out still being a good thing. Since we lost to Coventry our record has been average at best. This is with players like Olise who will be a top half premier league player one day. We would be even worse without him in the side. This is our best chance to at least get a shot at promotion. We can kiss goodbye to Olise, Richards who is out anyway, probably Joao and Swift will leave as well. With a lack of money we'll do well to finish top half next year in my opinion unless we really do find some diamonds from the academy or in the transfer window. Plus if we keep missing out what will the owners do?

We need to seize this opportunity now as we may not get another one like this for a while. Any less than the playoffs and I'll be gutted. Even if it's an improvement on recent seasons on paper I'll be very disappointed given our incredible start to the season.

[Zip]

If we don’t go up then we do need to sell Olise this summer. Either that or he signs a new deal as we cannot afford to lose him for next to nothing when his contract expires in June 2022.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

I think injuries will have a massive say on whether we'll make the playoffs or not. We need Swift back and hope him, Joao, Meite and Morrison, Rino, Richards and Laurent stay injury free. In other words the spine of our team.

If we did lose to Barnsley we'd need to win away to Watford or Norwich and beat Cardiff and at least draw with Swansea which would be a big ask.

I'm not buying some comments on here about missing out still being a good thing. Since we lost to Coventry our record has been average at best. This is with players like Olise who will be a top half premier league player one day. We would be even worse without him in the side. This is our best chance to at least get a shot at promotion. We can kiss goodbye to Olise, Richards who is out anyway, probably Joao and Swift will leave as well. With a lack of money we'll do well to finish top half next year in my opinion unless we really do find some diamonds from the academy or in the transfer window. Plus if we keep missing out what will the owners do?

We need to seize this opportunity now as we may not get another one like this for a while. Any less than the playoffs and I'll be gutted. Even if it's an improvement on recent seasons on paper I'll be very disappointed given our incredible start to the season.

Agree re Olise, we may have to cash in but no one will come in for Swift this summer given the season he's had and for Joao I don't think the owners will sell him....and again he hasn't been great since Jan so not convinced a premier league team will take the risk and offer big money like with Watkins and Benrama last year.

[Snowflake Royal]

If Olise, Joao and Swift all get sold this summer I'll chew my hat.

[Lower West]

Swift injury prone.

Joao would have made the top level by now.

Olise will be snapped up (aka Richards) and loaned out overseas. All about making money for the buying club.

[URZZZZ]

Defensive options are now looking very thin. We have missed Swift badly in recent weeks. Injuries and suspensions are going to influence the outcome of the final weeks of the season.

How can we miss a player that has made about 8 appearances all season? Chances are being created at pretty much the same quantity as earlier in the season, the difference being is that we’re not converting them at the same rate

He would obviously be a boost, but certainly wouldn’t say we’ve missed him badly given we were doing perfectly fine without him earlier in the season

[Snowflake Royal]

The longer someone doesn't play the better they get.